Phire Phox
Banned
?? PS4 and Xbone combined have sold more than two times what the 360 and PS3 did in the same time period. How is this an indication that this gen is trending worse than the previous one?
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NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Well, we've got another data point over in Japan. Maybe largely irrelevant to the NA/EU markets compared to what it once was but PS4 isn't setting the world on fire over there.
ColorblindJedi
Banned
Also had the 360 Core sku, which was lower price. That is what I got in April of 2006. It was not my best decision. Had to buy a hard drive anyways.
velvet_nitemare
Member
XBone will easily outsell OG XBox. Wii U is fucked tho, don't think it'll outsell gamecube.
Mysterious
Banned
Because while it started off with a bang (higher than Wii), it slowed down (comparing just April, Wii did almost double despite shortages).
It may possibly be a clue that PS4 unit sales were front-loaded and will be tapering off soon. Or not.
prag16
Banned
Wii was heavily supply constrained that entire time. I'm hoping aqua shows up with a PS4 vs. Wii launch aligned comparison so that we can get a good pictures of the trendline at least (and determine when they may cross streams; it's inevitable).
This is a solid plan and thus obviously the opposite of what Nintendo will do.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Oh my gosh.... I knew XBO was going to do bad in April, but in the context of this, it's doing absolutely terrible.
....What does this mean?
(I think I know what you're getting at, it needs to be more like iOS/Android, but "always-connected" isn't a good way to phrase it)
They aren't, they're a part of it. If PS4 was picking up all the slack the Xbone/Wii U are dragging, then things would be fine. It isn't, though.
In short, a softer lead console is fine in a generation with strong second and third place consoles. Its less fine if the second/third place systems fall off the map and also the lead console has comparatively soft sales.
Please note: the Xbox One has not fallen off the map yet. It's just an example of why the second and third (and fourth and fifth) place consoles matter.
TheBaronOfNA
Banned
Or no games?
Mysterious
Banned
Why would you compare Xbox 360 in April 2007 and PS4 in April 2014? That's Xbox 360's second April and PS4's first April.
I mentioned April 2007 to compare Wii, for which it was its first April. Wii was the market leader last gen.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
And now the AAA market will die (or at least contract) to bring it back. Like I've always believed, it's been long-overdue to see this industry contract in size. It's unsustainable right now. Manufacturers and developers will adjust, or lose out.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
The only counter point I would make is that none of those other consoles of prior gen had sold as much as the PS4 at this point (maybe the Xbone is in similar spot?). So the PS4 has dug much deeper into the early adopter well than any console prior and now it will take software and/or bundles or sales to get a bump.
Seems some are arguing over front loaded sales with large volume to meet demands or steady sales over a longer period with lower volume.
7DollarHagane
Banned
You won't get a response. These are drive by game industry doom trolls.
It will probably be below the Wii's trend line soon and it will be below the Wii's trend line the rest of this gen most likely.
I suspect the most damning thing is just industry momentum plus the fact handhelds never fully caught on outside of children and the hardcore outside of Japan. There may've been a vacuum for handhelds to take, but just as they were starting to finally make inroads the iPhone landed like an asteroid and really messed with that and the casual audience that only Nintendo was really doing well with (though the PS2 showed potential in the prior generation.)
Although perhaps it's more you could never have sold them on anything that wasn't universally useful or at least considered integral to communication.
charlequin
Banned
Well: budgets ballooned because visual pizzazz is so necessary to sell a game when you put it up against its direct competition. Midrange got squeezed out of the market because of the pricing limitations in place last gen; it was too early to ask customers to pay more than $15 for a digital game, but the economics of retail made anything but $60 games worthless in physical media, and most midrange games simply couldn't sell copies at that price.
Once you've already started segregating to AAA and indie, the other developments follow pretty naturally: there's enough money at the indie level to drive a goldrush (and thereby dramatically increase the number of titles at this level as established people in the industry start doing small games with 5-person teams), while at the AAA level everyone competes to offer increasingly all-encompassing titles that suck all the air out of the room.
Persona RS
Member
Something between 116k and 185k. It's a wide margin, but I think that's what we know so far.
StreetsAhead
Member
I think they'll go for early 2016. They're releasing their NFP peripheral early next year; I doubt they'll want to release hardware in the same calendar year. Whether this is a smart move is completely seperate, of course, I just don't think we'll see it on shelves in 2015.
If the PS4 wasn't being manufactured at a much higher rate than previous consoles, that would affect the curve though, wouldn't it? Holiday sales would be lower, but post holiday sales would be higher.
Because of the shape of the curves, as stated. They were tremendously front loaded, with sharp declines in sales already, particularly on the Xbox One. Yes, so far, the Xbox One has sold more than the 360, but the way the sales have been shaped -- with strong sales in the first couple of months with a significant drop off afterwards -- is less promising for the future.
TheSlySoul
Member
If Titanfall is any clue, they will just buy it on Xbox 360. I am curious what Mario Kart 8 does for Wii U.
How do we know that range?
Sony has not actually really given a fk about the JP launch tho. They launched there way late and prioritized other regions before it, and rightfully so.
Japan is a different situation to be tackled really. With time JP devs will switch over to next gen and the games will start coming more often than now. Sales will improve along with it. But for now, they are and should focus almost entirely on the west.
Seeing it at this E3 might be premature. But with the Wii U essentially dead and all the major 3DS franchise titles already out the door, they need to get hardware finalized and launch titles ready sooner rather than later.
Or:
Wii First April > X360 First April > PS4 First April > XBO First April > PS3 First April.
Also.
X360 First April > XBO First April
PS4 First April > PS3 First April.
Mysterious
Banned
Still not as bad as PS3 in April 2007 or Wii U in April 2013.
??
I already responded?
You need to get out of here with that when we're trying to actually have a discussion about the real troubles the industry are facing.
Pretty boring month. Curious to see how much of a boost May sees with Watch Dogs, and I would be surprised if XB1 doesn't fall into the sub 100K range this time. Actually, I wonder if it's possible for MK8 to pull the Wii U above it for a month, lol.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Yeah, which is why I don't understand why anyone thinks the Xbone will get anywhere near the 360's lifetime sales.
It will be lucky to achieve half, as it seems it is only relevant in one market. And that is not an exaggeration. It is a console that was only selling reasonably (until April) in the US. Launching in tier 2 territories won't do a damn thing.
Isn't it sitting at around 4.5 million ww right now? With a price-cut (which I don't think will have much of an effect), it could maybe sell 7-8 million by the end of the year at best. Which ain't great.
InsaneTiger
Member
Taking in all platforms, including PC, yes but PS4 to Xbox One, it sold better the XB1 Titanfall. Weird.
SCEA's management of the Vita is terrible. SCEJ's output has been stellar so far in my opinion and SCEE's is no slouch either.
SCEA's strategy has always been "muh console experience on the go" with ports and spinoffs, that simply doesn't work on the long run and when they realize it they drop the platform. That's sheer incompetence.
On the other hand SCEE and SCEJ have been supporting the PSP with new IPs and they brought it to success.
Tretton's (and SCEA's, by extension) ineptitude is painfully obvious. There's a reason why the PSP is still selling in Europe (there's even an exclusive €99 "kid friendly" model with no wifi) and Japan and it's completely dead in the US.
You mean like the Wii?
sindbadthesailor
Member
New, well-designed console that's not based on a gimmick and appropriately priced; yes.
The rest of that; I hope not.
Spieler Eins
Member
But they just said one week ago that 3DS is gonna stay through 2015 at the very least. It's the only audience Nintendo has which they can sell a proper amount of software to currently and they need it to establish that figurine business next year, because WiiU is doing too shabbily for it. Alongside that, it will also be QOL year for Nintendo.
New hybrid or a single Nintendo software line in 2016.
"Easily" is a strong adverb.
I wonder how much of the next gen sluggishness is because last gen support is so strong.
That's because wii become a trend among people. Ps4 is a traditional console, it has a long tail and sles improves when games are released.
I remind you that the wii's success faded pretty soon and quickly.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Believe it or not, people who love the industry as spectators, or who work in the industry as employees would like to see a healthy industry.
The current industry does not appear to be healthy; there are real signs of problems.
Putting your fingers in your ears and going "la-la-la, everythings fine, look how many copies GTAV sold, look how many launch PS4s sold" is not going to address underlying issues.
Mysterious
Banned
I compared those to show that PS4 isn't doing as "amazing" in its first April like everyone seems to believe and that XONE isn't doing as "horrid" in its first april.
PS4 numbers are still good, but isn't a sign of a healthy market.
Yes, I definitely agree this is possible. It's possible the data on this generation is unique, and it's one of the primary reasons I'm referring to 6 months of data as useful but not conclusive. We'll have to wait and see. I'd say by 14-15 months, we'll have a strong idea how the generation will play out. People often make too much noise about a single data point (i.e. a single month), but can also be too conservative when extrapolating from 15 months of data, just as people can't believe that a sampling of a few thousand people can accurately predict the behavior of 300 million.
charlequin
Banned
So basically, Nintendo should be sticking their logo on the back of last-gen iPhones?
Graphics Horse
Member
You mean this E3? With Iwata's latest comments, I think we'll see it next year's E3 for sure.
How long was the 360 supply constrained?
For PS4 maybe, considering it's been getting the brunt of the marketing push.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
If XB1 doesn't outsell the OGX then the industry is fucked.
Do you personally think that poignant software releases could change the shape of that curve, or do you think this is a trend that is likely to stick? Be interesting to gauge your thoughts on this, and why you think there's been more of a drop off this time around.
You don't buy new stock of something that sells less than 10K units in a month. Maybe some gamestops will still have it in a corner, but I doubt other stores will bother.