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[jvm]

My May 2008 article on the latest figures released by the NPD Group and the hardware publishers just went up at next-gen.biz.

No extra data from NPD this month, so I had to use everything else I could legitimately get my hands on. Regardless, I hope there are some items of interest for the sales-age folks. And I'd like to say "thanks" too all the folks who've helped in the past. I do appreciate it greatly.

As always, criticism and corrections are welcome. (Regulars will know I always follow up on corrections and make sure the article online is fixed.)

On projected console sales:

The linear models above predict the following at the beginning of October 2008:

* Nintendo Wii: 12.8 million systems
* Microsoft Xbox 360: 11.2 million systems
* Sony PlayStation 3: 5.4 million systems

On YTD software sales:

In comments sent to the press, NPD Group analyst, Anita Frazier, said that Guitar Hero III and Rock Band (combining sales across all platforms) are in the top 10 software titles for the year with 2.5 million and 1.3 million units respectively. This leaves open the question of what other titles are the top sellers, year-to-date.

Provided we group sales of multiplatform games together, we estimate that the following are probably the top five selling titles for the year. Please note that the NPD Group did not release this list, but we have pieced it together from existing data.

The list I came up with: GTA4 (4.2), SSBB (3.2), GH3 (2.5), MKWii (1.91), Wii Play (1.65). (If I missed something, I'd particularly like to see it corrected. Thanks.)

Also, LTD unit software sales estimates, tie ratios, size of GTA4 sales to the rest of PS3/360 sales, and how history tells us the market could reach $21B-$24B for the year.


In case you'd like to review previous threads:
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007

 

[LOcKY]

ive always wondered if analysts just read stuff from the forum and then somehow use it for their sort called research for their clients.

edit

ooops such a silly post i made.. must be tired its nearly 2am in the uk and im watching kung fu hustle on ch4

 

[Elios83]

Using a linear model to cover the holyday season has little sense and moreover this generation has been everything but linear so far :lol

 

[jvm]

Using a linear model to cover the holyday season has little sense and moreover this generation has been everything but linear so far :lol

Read the post. To the end of September/beginning of October. The article itself explains why end of the year is different.

 

[Stumpokapow]

R6Vegas 2 might be in the list; 857,300 on the X360 in two out of the three months (so probably around 900-920k X360 all told). Add in the PS3 sales and you'll probably be around 1.3 mln. Hard to confirm though.

Army of Two has a shot at it; ~850k month one between both SKUs.

Call of Duty 4 (X360 at almost a million in 2008 without this month's numbers, PS3 at 140k in 2008 with just January).

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Using a linear model to cover the holyday season has little sense and moreover this generation has been everything but linear so far :lol

I serious when I say that people should just let the generation play out because it has been wacky as hell

 

[Visualante]

ive always wondered if analysts just read stuff from the forum and then somehow use it for their sort called research for their clients.

Friend of the forum Michael Pachter has been accused of that very act. I don't think anyone puts that much weight into GAF personally. It's sort of time consuming to filter out all the "I said wow" and trolling from the serious analysis.

 

[jvm]

R6Vegas 2 might be in the list; 857,300 on the X360 in two out of the three months (so probably around 900-920k X360 all told). Add in the PS3 sales and you'll probably be around 1.3 mln. Hard to confirm though.

Army of Two has a shot at it; ~850k month one between both SKUs.

Call of Duty 4 (X360 at almost a million in 2008 without this month's numbers, PS3 at 140k in 2008 with just January).

Right on. I forgot to quote here the part of the article where I mention those.

The totals I have for those titles:
CoD4: 1.235M (minimum, doesn't include 4 months of PS3 sales, and we know Xbox 360 was #11 this month and therefore probably just under 100K and Pachter says only 10 titles made 100K+ this month)
R6V2: 1.012M (minimum, only one month of PS3, and we know it was below #25 this month and therefore below 60K each)
AoT: 831K (minimum, only March figures)
Rock Band: 1.3M (Frazier of NPD said so)

I'd like to know the full list...

 

[LOcKY]

i can see it now, pachter playing golf waiting for the NPD to flood through the forum. Then quickly goes through the threads and copy and paste the interesting parts.

I know its silly accusing him on these things but when he gets it wrong many times im sure his clients must start to lose patience.

 

[Gaborn]

Friend of the forum Michael Pachter has been accused of that very act. I don't think anyone puts that much weight into GAF personally. It's sort of time consuming to filter out all the "I said wow" and trolling from the serious analysis.

In defense of GAF though the other side of that is that it's hard to take the "serious" analysts very seriously when they make predictions like this:

I mean, there are certainly a variety of projections and predictions that you can make about the video game industry, including some guesses that don't include the Wii on top, and may even include Sony on top (if for example you believe Nintendo is inclined to release a new console early and abandon the Wii in a year or two to keep pace with technology), but it still does get to the point of parody when analysts repeat these predictions having previously predicted the same result... when the market was totally different pre-Wii.

I guess what I'm getting at is there is a perception that some analysts will cling to initial conventional wisdom and believe they will be vindicated in the long run, seemingly at the expense of historical trends and any possibility of sales momentum affecting a console. It's almost like some analysts will take a desired result (such as a PS3 victory) and try to come up with a projection that seems in line with that, no matter how ahistorical that might be given the current market environment

 

[watership]

I came here to see the crazy crayon chart gif.

 

[LOcKY]

maybe they have told their clients to invest a lot on Sony and now that their sort called predictions have started to wobble they dont want to look like amatuers.

So to avoid embarressment they been and still topping sony to win in all their assessments and continue to say that the wii will begin to decline in sales sometime soon.

Which i think we all know is damn right untrue. i think what enrages us all is that these people get paid stupid wages and we can clearly see how off the mark they are.

however if they actually made realistic assessments then perhaps we wouldnt be so harsh on them.

 

[Cheesemeister]

I came here to see the crazy crayon chart gif.

Ask and ye shall receive.

 

[Gaborn]

maybe they have told their clients to invest a lot on Sony and now that their sort called predictions have started to wobble they dont want to look like amatuers.

So to avoid embarressment they been and still topping sony to win in all their assessments and continue to say that the wii will begin to decline in sales sometime soon.

Which i think we all know is damn right untrue. i think what enrages us all is that these people get paid stupid wages and we can clearly see how off the mark they are.

however if they actually made realistic assessments then perhaps we wouldnt be so harsh on them.

NPD analyst Anita Frazier said the success of Grand Theft Auto IV is not translating into big hardware sales for either the PlayStation3 or the Xbox 360 games consoles, "but there may yet be a lift in June due to gift-giving for Father's Day and graduations."

not April, not May, but JUNE for GTAIV

 

[MisterHero]

 

[Gaborn]

Well, in fairness the chart was Billy Pidgeon's projection, not Pachter's.

 

[donny2112]

jvm,

Have you considered contacting Nintendo directly to find out their current tie ratio for the Wii? I think you have the PS3 one right (and 360's is directly from Microsoft), so it's just the Wii one that would be a question mark in my mind.

 

[jvm]

jvm,

Have you considered contacting Nintendo directly to find out their current tie ratio for the Wii? I think you have the PS3 one right (and 360's is directly from Microsoft), so it's just the Wii one that would be a question mark in my mind.

No, I have not contacted Nintendo directly, but you're right ... I should try.

My deadline is Sunday night for these articles (to have it on the front page first thing for most people Monday morning) and I'm not sure I could have gotten a response over the weekend, or on Friday given my own schedule (work + other obligations).

I will ask my editor for a contact address on Monday and see what I can dig up. No response in this thread will mean no dice.

Thanks for prodding me to pursue this. It's the right thing to do.

 

[mj1108]

This:

is the pretty version of this:

 

[Gaborn]

No, I have not contacted Nintendo directly, but you're right ... I should try.

My deadline is Sunday night for these articles (to have it on the front page first thing for most people Monday morning) and I'm not sure I could have gotten a response over the weekend, or on Friday given my own schedule (work + other obligations).

I will ask my editor for a contact address on Monday and see what I can dig up. No response in this thread will mean no dice.

Thanks for prodding me to pursue this. It's the right thing to do.

Honestly, I think that a lot of analysts and the like become very invested in their beliefs and predictions, but I think that your responsiveness and willingness to look at the data each month with "fresh" predictions projections and analysis rather than feeding us the same pap (at least apparently from the sound byte reactions we get from Pachter and other analysts) makes you so much more credible, you're not perfect but you're trying to improve what you do, and I think in many ways that makes you so much better than many other analysts.

I guess I just want to make clear I'm differentiating you in particular from my criticism of other analysts, you seem less focused on what SHOULD happen and are taking a look at what is happening, and it's a distinction I find really admirable.

MJ - yeah, but the "pretty" version actually came from an analyst.

 

[jrricky]

:lol gifs are so lovely.

 

[itxaka]

This:
[]http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/bto/20080520/ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif[/IMG]
is the pretty version of this:

nope. The comic is referring to this other graphic that is hilarious as well:

 

[santouras]

In defense of GAF though the other side of that is that it's hard to take the "serious" analysts very seriously when they make predictions like this:

is it possible to get a link to the article that contains this bold prediction for the future?

edit: nvm. I see it already got linked

 

[The Librarian]

Good read as always.

 

[jetjevons]

Ask and ye shall receive.

This always cracks me up. I swear I would hang it on my wall if they sold a poster.

 

[Kuramu]

Ask and ye shall receive.

birthdaykidwithcrayons.gif[/IMG ][/QUOTE]

Looks like I may be remembered for something after all. :) I wonder if it has reached other forums.

Hey, where's the real chart that shows nintendo actually losing a sliver of LTD in order for ps3 to catch up. Now that's funny.

 

[Sutanreyu]

No hardware charts?

http://www.thesimexchange.com/blogpost.php?post_id=498

 

[Nocebo]

This guy expects the PS3 to start selling roughly 20 million units a year starting 2009? About 1.6mill a month. How much is the Wii selling each month? About that, right? I doubt PS3 will ever make it happen since I seem to recall that Wii is the fastest selling console and has more units produced each month than any other console in history? (or maybe I'm talking out of my ass here )

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Looks like I may be remembered for something after all. I wonder if it has reached other forums.

Looks like it

I seem to recall that Wii is the fastest selling console and has more units produced each month than any other console in history?

Pretty much. Wii's current production rate is now right around where PS2's was at max.

 

[Mr. Spinnington]

wow and to think i never wanted to have anything to do with NPD threads :lol

 

[zsidane]

An amusing comparison of scale: in the United States, Nintendo has sold 1.2 million more copies of Wii Play than Sony has sold PlayStation 3 systems.

It's like the WiiFit BB vs. PS3 fight in Japan :lol

 

[barnacles]

Ukraine is weeeeeaaaakk!

 

[Nocebo]

It's like the WiiFit BB vs. PS3 fight in Japan :lol

I wonder if the fight will also take place in the US in a few months. I'm looking forward to the next NPD to see what WiiFit has done.

 

[Pureauthor]

My favourite graph ever is still the one where the PS3 line goes into a crazy spiral with 'HOLY FUCK PS3 WINS' written on it.

 

[pswii60]

This guy expects the PS3 to start selling roughly 20 million units a year starting 2009? About 1.6mill a month. How much is the Wii selling each month? About that, right? I doubt PS3 will ever make it happen since I seem to recall that Wii is the fastest selling console and has more units produced each month than any other console in history? (or maybe I'm talking out of my ass here )

Basically.

Even a megaton of uber-megatonic proportions wouldn't help PS3 sell that much. The gamer market is getting saturated (see GTA not pushing hardware sales) and to get to those sales you need to appeal to a far more casual and family oriented base. Unfortunately Wii has this tied up at the moment, but without Sony disrupting the market and doing something truly revolutionary with the PS3, I can't see them winning over that market in the forseeable future. They haven't been able to turn it around with PSP for example.

These analysts seem to forget who bought the majority of PS2 consoles. It wasn't all the GTA, FF or MGS fans, that's for sure. Otherwise each game would have sold upwards of 90m+. It's about appealing to the much broader market, something they've not been able to do so far this generation (either with price or game line-up).

As for MS, they really should stop copying and just go and do their own thing. XBL was quality innovation, they did what the DC didn't, and refined it so damn much with the 360. Why leave innovation there. WHAT THE FUCK @ LIPS. Why? Even Singstar hasn't even been a big seller on PS3, so why copy it. Nintendo haven't got a decent karoke game, and yet the Wii is selling bucketloads. The gaming karoke fad is over MS, invent something new for a change.

 

[Spiegel]

It's like the WiiFit BB vs. PS3 fight in Japan :lol

Wii Play has sold more than 360 did at 19 months too

 

[botticus]

Looks like I may be remembered for something after all. I wonder if it has reached other forums.

Hey, where's the real chart that shows nintendo actually losing a sliver of LTD in order for ps3 to catch up. Now that's funny.

 

[HarryHengst]

This always cracks me up. I swear I would hang it on my wall if they sold a poster.

I was just thinking the same. Guess there is no high-res version of it eh?

 

[F#A#Oo]

In defense of GAF though the other side of that is that it's hard to take the "serious" analysts very seriously when they make predictions like this:

When I saw that it reminds me of this;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UdLU-F9wfM

 

[Ceres]

Pretty much. Wii's current production rate is now right around where PS2's was at max.

And to think, they're still creating hype for the console by keeping shortages out there. rollseye.gif

Wow, I've never seen that one. I guess a bunch of Wiis are going to spontaneously combust in 2011 when FFXIII finally gets released.

 

[domokunrox]

Someone wanted to see silly crayon art.

Heres a pie graph I made last year I think.

 

[Skiptastic]

This one looks slightly more reasonable, if you take into consideration that they figure the newest Xbox will probably be out by then and the next Wii will be released or something.

Otherwise, it looks ridiculous. For some reason, there will be negative Wii and 360 sales in 2010-2011?

 

[D.Lo]

Yeah, this one is pretty much always going to be the one to beat for stupidz. Hard to beat a chart that doesn't obey mathematics just to make the PS3 win. And to think it was released in 2008!

 

[bloody pirate]

SO when will MS turn around and start outselling Sony monthly in USA?

 

[ThatHurt]

SO when will MS turn around and start outselling Sony monthly in USA?

You do realize that the ps3 beating the 360 in sales only happened this year, and its been by a very small margin.

Or am I reading that question wrong? Did you leave out "again"?

 

[Orlics]

Does anyone have some sort of graphic comparison of the sales of PS2 vs. the next-gen consoles from launch to date?

 

[Version 3.0]

Strangely enough, the only thing that can stand toe-to-toe with the Wii in a launch-aligned chart is the GBA. Their LTDs just crossed paths again, with the GBA taking the lead again thanks to its 2nd Christmas season:

 

[bloody pirate]

You do realize that the ps3 beating the 360 in sales only happened this year, and its been by a very small margin.

Or am I reading that question wrong? Did you leave out "again"?

you misunderstood.. what i ment is when will we see MS continue to outsell the PS3 monthly.. what month will we see it turned back around? when is there next system seller similar to MGS4

 

[Gaborn]

Actually, just looking at it... I'm not sure that was intended as an LTD forecast. I think it was year on year instead. Which makes it hard to believe any console is going to sell 40 million, but I doubt that the top selling console is going to do it with 40 million only anyway.

Edit: Ok, that theory's out the window since it says "installed base" unless very narrowly they MEANT installed base each year rather than LTD.

 

[llonesmiz]

Actually, just looking at it... I'm not sure that was intended as an LTD forecast. I think it was year on year instead. Which makes it hard to believe any console is going to sell 40 million, but I doubt that the top selling console is going to do it with 40 million only anyway.

Edit: Ok, that theory's out the window since it says "installed base" unless very narrowly they MEANT installed base each year rather than LTD.

You are forgetting the PS3's 10 years lifecycle

Spoiler

LOL

.


I suppose that iSuppli's prediction would put PS3's total at around 100 million on 2016 and Wii's at around 20 million .