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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

CBoaT's post totally makes me feel better about what I was seeing.

There was virtually no clear winner on our end. Stores were all over the place. Huge Sony shipments that didn't sell as 'fast', but sold like a goddamn truck, just constantly pushing numbers after the XB1 bundles emptied out.

So, yeah. 7-10k difference matches completely with how close of a game I figured it'd be.

Hi Abdiel, could you enlightenment me as to what you meant by selling "fast" versus the truckload?

Was there a stocking differential or was it just something like the hare and the turtle?
 
Why we are all sure December belongs to Sony? PS4 is now back again to 400$ without any bundles available while MS is keeping up with their BF prices more or less.

Why do people keep saying things like this? I just came home from Walmart where they had the 399$ GTA5 bundle with a 50$ gift card.

I don't know why people seem convinced the PS4 deals are over but you are wrong.
 

JNA

Banned
You are overestimating.

This is Wii U's third Christmas, and the console hasn't even surpassed Sega Saturn yet.

Can we get the chalk board now that Amiibos, SSB, and MK8 have been released? I'm curious to see what that looks like now.
 
Just went back and looked, and Inquisition DID beat Dragon Age II's release month sales. Not by a massive amount, but that should be worth something.

No idea about PC version sales, either.

I'm assuming the amount they invested in DAI vs DA2 is way more though. Maybe no more dargon age in the future if it doesn't have legs :(.
 

SDCowboy

Member
That's roughly the cost of the gamepad itself (that streaming tech + screen is fairly expensive). Not going to happen.
Might see standardized bundles for $250 though.

I don't care how much that stupid pad costs. $250, even for a bundle, is too much for a WiiU.
 
I feel like there needs to be some perspective here. It would mean they couldn't plausibly win the generation, but the overall stats for XBO still paint it as a very healthy console on track to outsell the X360 worldwide. I don't think "fucked" would be a fair way to describe the situation they're in, except in the very narrow sense that their ability to come first place would be torpedoed. PS4 and XBO are both seemingly filling the void left by the WiiU's total failure to follow-up on the Wii's success.

I thought Sony GAF of all people should be used to explaining how the PSP wasn't an overall failure just because the DS was a mega-success.

( ͡°╭͜ʖ╮͡° )

The 360 has shipped at least 83.6M WW as of Calendar Q1 2014, so likely is close to 85M WW currently. Of that 85M, about 42M or so were sold in the US. The PS3 managed to sell about 26M in the US. I would argue that the demographics that bought the 360/PS3 in the US are similar to each other and more importantly similar to the demographics buying the PS4/XB1.

Thus there is at max, 68M purchases of PS4/XB1 to be had in the US this generation assuming the market for them doesn't increase or decrease greatly [Most assume the market will remain the same or even shrink]. The 360 sold 62% more than the PS3 in the US, nothing that I have seen suggests MS will be able to dominate the US as much this generation.

Even assuming MS somehow pulls a tie off in the US [which seems incredibly unlikely if CBoats statement is to be believed] XB1 would at max sell 34M in the US, a loss of 8M units worldwide. The same logic can be applied to the UK where 360 sold 9M or so and again dominated the market. The XB1 does not show the same capability and thus unless the market grows significantly larger a smaller portion of the same pie will result in less sales. Mainland european sales of XB1 thus far have shown to be weaker than 360 so unless new markets show that they can make up for 15M+ loss in WW unit sales I would not predict the XB1 outselling the 360.
 
What are people thoughts on Amiibo sales until now?

I don't think they are too hot, but again is just extra revenue for Nintendo, so I guess it dosn't really matter.

I didn't realize polygons rotted over time like fruit.

It's a reality of the market that Nintendo dosn't want to accomodate for. I respect that position and then I'll turn to gog.com and check some cheap games.
 
Well, it's just me but
1) It's a good game in a popular genre
2) I thought it will do better than games released in previous months (Madden, NBA)

Sadly, good games doesn't = good sales without also having good marketing.

Madden did chart higher than I thought it would've, but sports games always tend to sell well during the holidays.

It's not at all suprising to see 2K or Madden ahead of Dragon Age because they are far bigger brand names, were on sale during BF and considering that DAI's biggest individual userbase is probably on PC.
 

Dominator

Member
Damn at Dragon Age not making... Also Far Cry is WAY higher than I would have thought. Impressed at that.

But if CBOAT is right then wow at the differential. Minimal at best.
 

Gator86

Member
I doubt Nintendo is that upset, as long as they're remaining profitable. I have a feeling they've already kicked the can on this generation, and are just making as much money as they can, much like Sony and the Vita (hence the lack of a doorbuster deal). Let's hope that fusion console comes out soon, although I dunno if Nintendo can make a profitable console that doesn't make the use of some cheap gimmick.

Yeah I said it

Nintendo is just really fucking good at being profitable. It's ridiculously impressive. That said, I think they do have to go with the fusion console or a super cheap complementary console if they want to stick around in the console market. I'm hoping they avoid the gimmick nonsense on their next one.
 

prag16

Banned
I've always tried to be optimistic about Wii U that things will turn around for the console once Smash and MK8 were out. And now that they are and after getting this results... I think is not even going to come close to that number :'( I... I have something in my eye, brb.

December is usually the bigger month; Nintendo didn't do a whole lot for black friday (yeah a couple okay bundles, but nothing remotely close to what xbone did comparatively speaking)...

...but yeah. 12 million is a more reasonable target at this point probably. -_-
 
What are people thoughts on Amiibo sales until now?

I don't think they are too hot, but again is just extra revenue for Nintendo, so I guess it dosn't really matter.



It's a reality of the market that Nintendo dosn't want to accomodate for. I respect that position and then I'll turn to gog.com and check some cheap games.

That Nintendo was dumb not to have an Amiibo game this holiday
 

SRTtoZ

Member
I wonder how much of it has to do with releasing a broken game or how much of it has to do with people getting sick of Assassins Creed games.

Combination of both IMO. I'm one of them. If the game ended up being stellar, 9/10, best AC game ever blah blah blah, I probably would have taken the plunge just because, FUCK IT, but still, that AC sickness is real.
 

vpance

Member
Why we are all sure December belongs to Sony? PS4 is now back again to 400$ without any bundles available while MS is keeping up with their BF prices more or less.

They won the first 2 weeks of November when they had the price cut and Sony didn't offer any deals, only when Sony also offered a good deal in BF they destroyed MS again, now in December we're again in the same situation - no deal by Sony while MS offers great deals- they should win December as well.

The sales bump effect of the price cut should have slowed immensely compared to the first 2 weeks or so in Nov. I'd be surprised if they can take Dec.
 

EatMyFace

Banned
7-10k after MCC and practically giving the ACU bundle away? That's a bit worrying for MS no?
Yeah. I think after this Microsoft needs to accept reality. They won't be #1 this generation. They have to settle for 2nd and maximize profits. Getting a narrow 10k victory with all the fire sales isn't worth it. They would have been better off timing the price cut with a AAA title in the first half of the year when sales were slow.
 
Software:

1.) Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (360, XBO, PS4, PS3, PC)
2.) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3)
3.) Super Smash Bros. (NWU, 3DS)
4.) Madden NFL 15 (360, XBO, PS4, PS3)
5.) Pokemon Alpha Sapphire (3DS)
6.) Far Cry 4 (PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, PC)
7.) Pokemon Omega Ruby (3DS)
8.) NBA 2K15 (PS4, 360, XBO, PS3, PC)
9.) Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, XBO, PC)
10.) Halo: The Master Chief Collection (XBO)

Last Month I predicted the top 10 for this month.

My prediction from 11/14 said:
1. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)

2. Grand Theft Auto 5 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)

3. Super Smash Bros for Wii U (Wii U)

4. Halo: The Master Chief Collection (Xbox One)

5. Assassin's Creed: Unity (PS4, Xbox One, PC)

6. Pokémon Alpha Sapphire/Omega Ruby (3DS)

6. Far Cry 4 (PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS3, PC)

7. Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4, Xbox One, PC)

8. NBA 2K 15 (PS4, 360, Xbox One, PS3

9. MineCraft (Xbox One, Xbox 360, PS4, PS3)

10. Destiny (Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)

So aside from accidentally posting 11 games, I nailed the top 3 and was pretty close on Far Cry. Way too low on Pokemon Definitely overestimated MCC and Assassin's Creed. Clearly I was smoking that good ish by going in on Dragon Age here and in the PAL charts thread. Didn't think Madden would have longer legs than 2k.

Yeah. I think after this Microsoft needs to accept reality. They won't be #1 this generation. They have to settle for 2nd and maximize profits. Getting a narrow 10k victory with all the fire sales isn't worth it. They would have been better off timing the price cut with a AAA title in the first half of the year when sales were slow.

The raw increase of a spring price cut would be much less noticeable than that of a holiday cut. It's kind of stupid to beat Sony by say 50k in February when your overall sales are 250k to 200k. More people will buy now for the holidays, which is much more important for software sales in 2015. The PS4 is a console selling at a record-setting pace, for all we know the price cut is the only thing that kept the Xbox One in the ball park this month.
 
Is the Dreamcast still tracking ahead of the Wii U at this point? Someone in the other thread said it was even after DC was discontinued. If so that'd be incredibly sad for Nintendo.

Awkwardly humbling for the OG Sega fanboy still in me tho xD
 

Elios83

Member
Unity under performing heavily is a joy. Ubisoft shouldn't be rewarded for releasing broken games.

It's certainly not growing and things didn't went as they expected, but the chart is misleading since most of the XB1 version sales were not included considering the game was in almost every XB1 sold for the month. So we might be looking at 700-800k units not counted here which is a ton.
 
Why we are all sure December belongs to Sony? PS4 is now back again to 400$ without any bundles available while MS is keeping up with their BF prices more or less.

They won the first 2 weeks of November when they had the price cut and Sony didn't offer any deals, only when Sony also offered a good deal in BF they destroyed MS again, now in December we're again in the same situation - no deal by Sony while MS offers great deals- they should win December as well.

Sony has a deal, which is the Choose 1-from-4 Digital Game Bundle. And Wallmart has a $50 GC for said bundle.

And realistically speaking, the demand for XB1 bundles has most likely slowed down, as a price drop tends to create peak demand out-the-gate before slowing down.

Now, I won't say December belongs to Sony, because they also don't have a GTA bundle this time round, but it's not like XB1 will replicate its peak first-two-weeks sale, nor will PS4 suddenly drop a cliff just because GTAV bundle ain't there no more.
 

Which isn't anywhere near as popular as 3D Mario, Mario Kart, or Smash, and lets remember that all three of those are available now, and in Smash's launch month, sales only went up 10%.

If Zelda U launches next November,I'd expect WiiU sales under 200k. Less than 150k is more likely than 250k+ frankly.

This is the WiiU's peak year, nowhere to go from here but down.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Don't you mean 10 million?

You think sales will increase by 250% even though Mario Kart and Smash are already out? 18 million is way too generous.

I was trying to be optimistic guys :(

it hurts...

How much less would they have sold if they had only done similar bundles and pricing to PS4, though? There is value in selling lots of consoles, even if you're not out-selling everyone else. Growing the player base is important, and failing to generate any momentum could be more dangerous than making lower profits over a holiday season.

I totally agree with your general point. My point is just that we're missing a few critical pieces of information to know if the exchange was worth it. How much did they sell this November vs. last November? How much hit on their profit margins did they take to offer XBO at those prices at retailers? Was the amount of increased unit sales sufficient to cover for the decrease in profit margins, leading to overall more profit than previous?

It's a few blank holes we have to fill in. I agree that the numbers don't mean MS is "fucked" in terms of its business plan to, ya know, profit (the universal business plan, heh), but we do not know if the strategy was actually successful or if the victory was truly a Pyrrhic one until we fill in some of those blanks.

Because there are now future implications. Microsoft has less strategic options going forward, and they likely have to keep the unit at this price to remain even remotely competitive now in US/UK (worldwide was already gone, of course). And are those reduced profit margins worth it in exchange for continued month-over-month momentum, more average unit sales for off-holiday periods (it remains to be seen if that'll happen of course)? Because they will have to sell more on an average monthly basis than they were before to make the strategy viable (meaning more profit this way than the alternative way).

There are other factors as well. If they do keep a higher average monthly sales rate by staying at $349.99, there will be higher software sales as you imply. And that too is a way Microsoft can win out in their overall profit goals vs. their initial strategy.

So I agree saying "that fucked" has no value, but I do think it is not quite clear yet if this is a real victory or Pyrrhic Victory until we get some more data/information.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Honestly, those royalties from Android alone probably more than make up for losses garnered through the XB1 division.

Though that's just a hunch.

Don't they just hide Xbox earnings reports behind "Computing and Gaming Hardware" (i.e. Surface)? Because the surface is actually selling pretty well if I'm up to date. As it should, it's a high quality desktop replacement.

Fujitsu sucks
 

iamvin22

Industry Verified
lmfao at those wiiu hardware numbers. can they even reach gc numbers at this rate?


5y0CDUp.gif
 
I've always tried to be optimistic about Wii U that things will turn around for the console once Smash and MK8 were out. And now that they are and after getting this results... I think is not even going to come close to that number :'( I... I have something in my eye, brb.

Yeah, I thought this holiday season was going to be a marked improvement for Nintendo but it's thoroughly bad. Even with way better games and a way better bundle compared to last year they only sold what? 30-40k more systems. The system is going to top out at like 11-12 million units bar some revolutionary game. Next price drop needs to be deep. Like $100 deep if they want to gain any momentum. But since they have no developer support it's pointless to drop the price much because they can't sustain interest with games.

That said I actually think the system will sell better in 2015 because there will be an inevitable price drop that puts it closer to impulse range. It's just that they really will not gain much momentum with it.
 

Man

Member
10k difference at best. If this month was five minutes longer anyone could come out on top lol.
Microsoft played everything for this win and they only did by a moscito hair.
 

thuway

Member
This also highlights another issue. Any chance of Microsoft money hatting an exclusive for the Xbox One is going to diminish as the sales gap widens. If they couldn't be competitive this month, and winning by 10k isn't competitive, it's winning by a margin of error - they will have an insane time convincing any third parties their console is a viable permanently home.

I say this a guy who just bought an Xbox One and PS4 within the same week for myself personally.
 

Guevara

Member
Zelda popularity vs. Zelda sales are weird. Nintendo just revealed the Link was the best selling Amiibo thus far in the U.S.
 

kswiston

Member
Completely irrelevant. Top 10 is top 10 and DA isn't there.

Only in the world of zero logic. A game can fail to make the top 10 in both November and December, yet move 800-1M units in the US in those months. I'm pretty sure it happened during the height of the Wii. The top 10 cut off in holiday months is really high. In the spring and summer, top 10 often means sub-100k sales.

Actual sales numbers are what matter. It's not like Dragon Age was a blockbuster series previously. If sales are over 400k (given how poorly received the previous title was) that would be a decent start going into December (which should lead to a good hold)
 
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