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Your predictions for The Big Three at the end of The Next Generation.

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M

Mama Robotnik

Member
The present: we have some idea of where Nintendo are going with the Wii U and 3DS. We've seen Sony's next-gen handheld, but have nothing concrete on either Sony or Microsoft's home console offerings. We're living in an explosion of mobile phone gaming, and Facebook games have become serious, profitable business. The industry is in flux.

This thread is for us to offer predictions, as detailed as you like, regarding the status of Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo at the fall of the Next Generation. Its not for you to say what you want to happen, more so of what you think is most likely to happen in your opinion.

This might seem like an exercise in guesswork, but considering a few of the following questions might allow us to attempt to make reasoned, educated guesses:

From the most recent E3, where are each of the companies going? Who are their respective markets?

What went wrong this generation, will they address the lessons learned?

How will developing trends like iOS, Android and Facebook games affect the big three?

How much money does each company have to risk? Have they proven to be adaptable to quickly changing markets, or are they stuck in their old ways?

What rumours are circulating, and which of them seem likely?

Which companies will rise, and which will fall?

I'm not looking for literal answers to these - they are just there to get your predictive skills working. Use them or disregard them at your convenience.

You might find the idea of guessing a whole generation ahead to be completely absurd, but if analysts can be paid tens of thousands of dollars for their own attempts at educated guesses, surely its a significant enough endeavor for us to give it a go.

Besides, in a few years we can come back and have a good laugh at ourselves.

Under three headings, offer your predictions, as reasoned as you like.


Nintendo


Microsoft


Sony
 
D

Deleted member 81567

Unconfirmed Member
Sony will be vaporized, that's all I know.
 
I

injurai

Banned
PC will continue to grow with Valve.

Sony will struggle despite having the best influx of IP's.

The bros will slurp up the Nextbox from Microsoft and buy annual releases.

Nintendo continues to not give a fuck and rack in the cash.

Kojima continues to save the industry every 4 years.
 
N

Nekofrog

Banned
Sony will never retake the #1 spot. Microsoft is too deeply embedded with XBL for that to ever happen.

Both MS and Sony will lose some more gamers to the PC, Nintendo... no idea. I don't see the Wii U doing great.

Edit: For future wall of shame posts, this post was made long before the XBone "reveal". So yeah I was wrong.
 
D

Drago

Member
Microsoft 1st
Nintendo 2nd
Sony 3rd, drops out of console business

I base this off absolutely nothing
 
D

DJIzana

Member
Barsinister said:
I'm seriously hoping that things go back to the snes and genesis days as far as popularity goes.
Click to expand...

I agree with this 100%... I don't see that happening though.

If you've been paying attention to Sega though, they've been doing that. They are my #1 favorite developer because of this.
 
E

Endo Punk

Member
injurai said:
Kojima continues to save the industry every 4 years.
Click to expand...

971499-big_boss_salute_super.jpg
 
G

Grakl

Member
Nintendo continues to dominate the handheld arena. It also maintains a lead for the home console space, but it's much closer this time in terms of hardware sales. Third-party software sales will see a boost for Nintendo, as well as the other next-gen consoles (compared to this gen) because of a (hopefully) recovering NA economy. Nintendo first party sales will continue to reign supreme, though.

Hardware in the U.S.
1. Nintendo
2. Microsoft
3. Sony

Hardware in Japan
1. Nintendo
2. Sony
3. Microsoft

I know nothing about PAL regions

Sony will not drop out of the race. Microsoft will debut a handheld system late next-gen, but it is more multimedia-oriented. Sony will stop selling a dedicated gaming portable device, which will be similar to what Microsoft offers.
 
S

Snowden's Secret

Banned
Just a quick guess:

Microsoft - Probably in last place per sales (unless something drastic changes), but they don't even care because their box is a "media machine" and not a "games console" a la a smartphone. Will probably actually offer a new Xbox every year with incremental upgrades and a contract. Expect to see an even worse contraction of first party output (goodbye Fable).

Sony - Likely beats Microsoft worldwide and possibly beats Nintendo, though I expect them to have lost a shit ton of money in the process. All reasonable expectations would have them dropping out of handhelds, so expect a Vita successor.

Nintendo - Pretty much all that's left of the Japanese market, in Japan and elsewhere. Expect most or all major Japanese third party games to be U/3DS-centric, and few or none of the major Western ones. May or may not finish first again (they are about a year late to the market with Wii U) but that's largely irrelevant due to profitibility actions taken by Nintendo. Expect Nintendo to largely be the same in five years as they are now.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Nintendo: Strong first place, double the other two in sales. I think Wii U is going to be the lead platform for multiplat games much like the PS2 was for games in it's generation. I think Nintendo will have a minimum of 10 million units on the market by a year from it's release and I think Nintendo is going to build a very strong relationship with indie developers and build their E-Shop. I think we're currently seeing at least some movement from developers in Nintendo's direction and some movement can lead to more movement if those result in more sales.

Microsoft: I think Microsoft is going to have another solid generation and move into a clear second place. I think they helped themselves a lot this generation building on the last one and there is little indication that will not continue. I see MS as kind of a bridge between Nintendo and Sony's philosophies with the strengths and weaknesses of each. I think MS is going to benefit from their Xbox Live user base and building a strong community of core gamers that is willing and able to pay for the service. I also think they're going to benefit from their Kinect audience they've been building but I think the true test is how well they synthesize these audiences and show a value proposition to cause more overlap between the two. I think that Japan will still be a struggle as well, but Europe is going to move a bit closer to MS's direction compared to Sony.

Sony: it's going to be a struggle. I look at the position Sony is in this generation compared to last gen and I have a lot of issues with them. It doesn't seem like they're 6 years removed from being a completely dominant force in the industry about to launch a highly anticipated followup to the most successful console of all time. It feels more like 20. Everything has been changed from Sony's position. They don't have the same instant cache they have by just being Sony. They aren't going to have developers just jumping on with early exclusives, why should they when there is no guarantee the userbase will be there? I think that instead you're going to see more exclusives go to MS and to Nintendo rather than to Sony.

I think that Sony still doesn't truly accept the idea that they need to regain and rebuild trust. Its not about humbling Sony, its about Sony understanding the position they're in and reverting to what works and making a developer friendly environment at a price consumers are willing to buy into early to build that userbase up as quickly as possible. Its about having that killer game at launch or as early as possible that will FORCE consumers to jump on board... and I don't know that Sony gets that. I don't think they succeeded with doing that with the Vita and I think that is a serious problem.
 
C

Card Boy

Banned
Dr Eggman said:
Sony will be vaporized, that's all I know.
Click to expand...

I agree with this.

The PS4 will do worse than the VITA, they have lost to much brand recognition, exclusives and they have IPs noone gives a shit about besides nerds on the internet. Coupled with no backwards compatibility (due to the abandonment of the Cell), Sony is destined for last place again. Failing all that, the PS4 will be $499-$549 and we will get a repeat of the PS3 but this time it will be much worse.
 
K

Karsticles

Member
Coldplay619 said:
Same as this one.

Nintendo 1st
Microsoft 2nd
Sony 3rd
Click to expand...
This is roughly my thought, though I'd rather Microsoft be third.

It seems we might get a new entrant or two in the console race, too.

I honestly think Nintendo is going to rock this next generation. They seem to be getting a lot right recently with their software, and Iwata has learned a lot from the 3DS's underwhelming launch.

I think Microsoft will be the same. Poor value, weak offerings, and overcharging for things that should be free in the first place. But Americans will buy it because...who knows why.

Sony will fumble along because it has unrealistic consumer expenditure expectations. There's no reason to think Sony's gaming division will die. It makes a profit. And if the corporation were to fall apart, it would likely be purchased and continued.
 
S

ScreenSplitter

Member
Microsoft: Xbox 3, Kinect, and Windows 8 will all join together in a huge, messy blob. Will continue to staunchly over-charge for everything, make online multiplayer a service charge, and will more or less get away with it. Apart from the Gold charge; I predict that if Sony and Nintendo both have competent, online free services, Microsoft will have to make Silver baseline and with multiplayer included, or lose their marketshare. Will either launch around the same time/after the PS4, and therefore lose the headstart the 360 had. Less exclusives, apart from the company's big names.

Sony: Will get the headstart. Won't use a cell processor. Hopefully will learn from various mistakes with PSP... Vita... PS3... probably not. Less exclusives, apart from the company's big names.

Nintendo: Won't do as insanely well as the Wii; the Wii U will sell more than the Gamecube though, and people will once again claim they've failed. Instead of losing third party support due to outdated technology, the more refined yet still relatively familiar tech of the Wii U allows third party developers who can't afford the predictably huge costs of next gen to keep making cost effective games.

1. Nintendo
2. Sony
3. Microsoft
 
W

WinFonda

Member
MS and Sony will be fine thanks to XBL and PSN. Nintendo is heading right down shitfall rapids with the way they handle their online infrastructure. They should have built a PSN/XBL counterpart over the last 8 years.
 
S

Syphon Filter

Member
Gez said:
I agree with this.

The PS4 will do worse than the VITA, they have lost to much brand recognition, exclusives and they have IPs noone gives a shit about besides nerds on the internet. Coupled with no backwards compatibility (due to the abandonment of the Cell), Sony is destined for last place again. Failing all that, the PS4 will be $499-$549 and we will get a repeat of the PS3 but this time it will be much worse.
Click to expand...

I disagree. PS3 will be 2nd or 1st[if Nintendo messes up]. No more headstart and price advantage for xbox. Remember than in EU and JP Sony has MS beat. I can see MS competing in NA but due to no headstart i see sony beating them easily. Sony is stronger on consoles than their handhelds.
 
O

Oersted

Member
sony will be the new sega, microsoft will call their next console a pc and nintendo... i honestly don´t know...
 
S

ScreenSplitter

Member
WinFonda said:
MS and Sony will be fine thanks to XBL and PSN.
Click to expand...

Eh, Microsoft needs to stop charging for things that nobody else is, and Sony need to tighten the bolts of their security a little. Nobody's infallible, and unless they change certain policies, they won't be just "fine".
 
M

Metalmurphy

Member
Gez said:
I agree with this.

The PS4 will do worse than the VITA, they have lost to much brand recognition, exclusives and they have IPs noone gives a shit about besides nerds on the internet. Coupled with no backwards compatibility (due to the abandonment of the Cell), Sony is destined for last place again. Failing all that, the PS4 will be $499-$549 and we will get a repeat of the PS3 but this time it will be much worse.
Click to expand...

Are you mad?

BC has no bearing at all on the sales of a console, people that care are a minority. Exclusives that no one care about don't sell 4-8 million copies. The Vita price point is a good clue on how Sony will price the PS4. It won't be a very expensive console. And the only thing that can do worst then VITA at this point is the Ngage 2.
 
M

Mama Robotnik

Member
WinFonda said:
MS and Sony will be fine thanks to XBL and PSN. Nintendo is heading right down shitfall rapids with the way they handle their online infrastructure. They should have built a PSN/XBL counterpart over the last 8 years.
Click to expand...

Given that Nintendo managed to sell more software units than their competitors this generation without a robust online system or heavily online-focused games (NSMB, Wii Sports/Resort/Play/Fit, Mario Kart, Brain Training, Nintendogs, Pokemon, etc), what makes you think their continued disinterest in a XBL/PSN level service will doom ("shitfall rapids") the company?

I don't get it. Nintendo has proved, time and again, that they can sell millions of units of offline games with little difficulty. As long as they can continue to do that, they are surely not doomed.
 
I

injurai

Banned
If the PS4 launches around the same time with the same price as the NextBox, I think Sony can come out in second. $399 price cap and they could be golden.
 
D

Delusibeta

Banned
What I'd like to see: Xbox 3 to follow the tradition of falling flat on your third home console (Microsoft desperately needs taking down a peg or twenty), Playstation 4 to become the home of "hardcore" gaming, which means it'll do well in North America and the UK and be overtaken by the Wii U elsewhere in the world. Meanwhile, Japan becomes Nintendoland as far as the video game market is concerned.

What I'd expect: Xbox 3 and Playstation 4 swapping roles from the above scenario and Sony dropping out of the gaming market, while the Wii U taking over elsewhere (especially Japan).
 
S

SniperHunter

Banned
Sony = Doomed, they lost all the big exlusives, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, etc. They have their first party studios and IPS but they aren't system sellers. I think we will see Naughty Dog buying themselves back from Sony and becoming an independent studio at the first hint of trouble with PS4. Microsoft will probably try to make PS4 launch lineup look dry, by getting timed exclusivity for Star Wars 1313, Watch_Dogs etc. They could also sabotage major third party engines by paying Epic or Crytek (who they are very close to) and asking them to cripple the engines, to make Xbox 720 look good.

Microsoft = they will just buy their way through to victory. They will probably money hat and get an exclusive from Crytek and Epic, both Ryse and Cliffy B's new Xbox 720 IP will blow peoples mind. They will probably have the strongest box too...

Nintendo = the wild card again! They named Wii U after Wii, which is pretty much dead every where and their box is ancient technology once again. Will the casual crowd bite? Only time will tell. But they can just ride their way through because how strong they are in Japan.

edit: sorry about the errors etc. Hard to type and see on this small laptop
 
J

JAYinHD

Member
ScreenSplitter said:
Eh, Microsoft needs to stop charging for things that nobody else is, and Sony need to tighten the bolts of their security a little. Nobody's infallible, and unless they change certain policies, they won't be just "fine".
Click to expand...

As an owner of all 3 consoles this generation, regardless of my friends list or whatever I will likely not purchase their console (especially if I gotta pay for all this multimedia stuff) if they continue to charge for something I can get for free somewhere else (hey times are tough nowadays).
 
K

Knux-Future

Banned
Wow a lot of Sony will be dead posts.

so basically Sony to win next gen confirmed?

If Sony does "die", I could see them merging with Nintendo or Microsoft.

Either way it's too early to try to see into the future...especially since we don't know wtf the next systems will be like...shit we don't even know what the Wii U will cost yet.


Hopefully no one drops out and we continue to get good games.
 
C

Card Boy

Banned
Metalmurphy said:
Are you mad?

BC has no bearing at all on the sales of a console, people that care are a minority. Exclusives that no one care about don't sell 4-8 million copies. The Vita price point is a good clue on how Sony will price the PS4. It won't be a very expensive console. And the only thing that can do worst then VITA at this point is the Ngage 2.
Click to expand...

Quote me in 2 or 3 years. I know when something is about to bomb. Sony is very easy to read, even Patcher can do it.
 
S

ScreenSplitter

Member
JAYinHD said:
As an owner of all 3 consoles this generation, regardless of my friends list or whatever I will likely not purchase their console (especially if I gotta pay for all this multimedia stuff) if they continue to charge for something I can get for free somewhere else (hey times are tough nowadays).
Click to expand...

The online multiplayer when you compare it to Steam or PSN is pretty pathetic already. The Netflix stuff is laughable when you consider it took years for them to bring BBC iPlayer to the Xbox because Microsoft wanted to basically charge us for something we pay a TV License for yearly anyway.
 
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