• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

April 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 13

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, May 13th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 7-May 4 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, May 16th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:


March's Results - thanks to EviLore and a variety of angles

EviLore said:
Hardware:

Xbox 360: 261K (-29.6%)
Click to expand...
donny2112 said:
3DS - 230K
PS3 - 211K
Wii U - 67K
PSV - 33K

NDS, PSV, and PSP are calculated.
Click to expand...

March 2012 NPD thread
April 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
[360] 175K
[PS3] 150K
[3DS] 120K
[WIU] 60K
[PSV] 20K

In case it's worth it to anyone, YTD rates, accounting for leap week:
PS3: -28.2%
360: -26.5%
3DS: -20.4%

Doesn't make sense for any of the others.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
My predictions for April 2013 NPD:

[360] 183K
[3DS] 113K
[PS3] 131K
[PSV] 32K
[WIU] 60K

Accounting for YOY declines:

[360] 183K (-30% YOY)
[3DS] 113K (-10% YOY)
[PS3] 131K (-25% YOY)
[PSV] 32K
[WIU] 60K
 
F

Foshy

Member
[360] 205K
[3DS] 160K
[PS3] 180K
[PSV] 45K
[WIU] 50K

I'd like to think that Soul Sacrifice helped selling about 10k Vitas.
 
L

LOCK

Member
I think April will be the month where the 3DS will start it's upwards trend compared to last year. I expect April for the 3DS will be up over last year.
 
D

DaBoss

Member
Foshy said:
I'd like to think that Soul Sacrifice helped selling about 10k Vitas.
Click to expand...

I don't know about this. I don't think it would increase by a large amount like 10K.

LOCK said:
I think April will be the month where the 3DS will start it's upwards trend compared to last year. I expect April for the 3DS will be up over last year.
Click to expand...

Yea, I think that too.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
DaBoss said:
Well it is relative. A 10K increase from 33K would be a 30% increase, and 33K was from a 5 week month.
Click to expand...

Then again, Soul Sacrifice is one of the Vita's most important releases, often cited as "one of Vita's last chances" to make a foothold in the console market.

Considering that last month's releases basically consisted of a couple of ports, I don't think an increase from 6.6K units per week (33K per month) to 10K units per week (40K per month) is unwarranted.

But of course, this is highly contingent on how hard Sony pushed Soul Sacrifice in the USA. I don't have any retailer data, but I bet they pushed it to an area higher than a baseline 20K / 25K figure.
 
D

DaBoss

Member
Aquamarine said:
Then again, Soul Sacrifice is one of the Vita's most important releases, often cited as "one of Vita's last chances" to make a foothold in the console market.

Considering that last month's releases basically consisted of a couple of ports, I don't think an increase from 6.6K units per week (33K per month) to 10K units per week (40K per month) is unwarranted.

But of course, this is highly contingent on how hard Sony pushed Soul Sacrifice in the USA. I don't have any retailer data, but I bet they pushed it to an area higher than a baseline 20K / 25K figure.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone really claimed the first part of your post for the west though. In Japan people did along with the price cut.

I do think it will cause an increase, but I feel 8K per week is more likely possible.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I really don't see Soul Sacrifice doing anything...

At most it might counteract the normal Mar->Apr transition that seems to see average weekly sales decline. But that would still leave PSV at around 25K at best.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I really don't see Soul Sacrifice doing anything...

At most it might counteract the normal Mar->Apr transition that seems to see average weekly sales decline. But that would still leave PSV at around 25K at best.
Click to expand...

I'm putting more faith on Soul Sacrifice as a title that Sony actually decides to push and market.


DaBoss said:
I don't think anyone really claimed the first part of your post for the west though. In Japan people did along with the price cut.

I do think it will cause an increase, but I feel 8K per week is more likely possible.
Click to expand...

But having revisited some figures, I've revised my Vita prediction to be more in line with this.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Aquamarine said:
Then again, Soul Sacrifice is one of the Vita's most important releases, often cited as "one of Vita's last chances" to make a foothold in the console market.

Considering that last month's releases basically consisted of a couple of ports, I don't think an increase from 6.6K units per week (33K per month) to 10K units per week (40K per month) is unwarranted.

But of course, this is highly contingent on how hard Sony pushed Soul Sacrifice in the USA. I don't have any retailer data, but I bet they pushed it to an area higher than a baseline 20K / 25K figure.
Click to expand...

In Japan. In America, there was never a chance of that. And just anecdotally, but I didn't see any Sony advertising at all for Soul Sacrifice.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom