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Media Create Sales: Week 17, 2015 (Apr 20 - Apr 26)

lo zaffo

lo zaffo

Member
I cannot do the math, not only because I'm a westerner, but I guess with 150k copies in JPN alone Xenoblade Cross should hit break even point, especially if advertising budget is scarce budget. My choice of this 150k number is because it is what Xenoblade sold in JPN.
 
P

plebegamer

Banned
Fandangox said:
Didn't it have a lower opening than the original?
Click to expand...

I believe the original opened at 71k for Dengeki numbers.


Also, was the 86k with the bundle numbers and digital, or could it actually be at 90k? I figure it could be close to 8k digital sales. It had an unusually long preload period in Japan I thought, and it's a game where there's an obvious benefit to having a digital copy.

Reggie once claimed Wii U digital sales averaged out to about 20% of the total in the US, with Bayonetta being on the lower end of the spectrum with ~10% being digital copies.

Is a 10% digital too much to ask in Japan?
 
T

theprodigy

Member
plebegamer said:
I believe the original opened at 71k for Dengeki numbers.


Also, was the 86k with the bundle numbers and digital, or could it actually be at 90k? I figure it could be close to 8k digital sales. It had an unusually long preload period in Japan I thought, and it's a game where there's an obvious benefit to having a digital copy.

Reggie once claimed Wii U digital sales averaged out to about 20% of the total in the US, with Bayonetta being on the lower end of the spectrum with ~10% being digital copies.

Is a 10% digital too much to ask in Japan?
Click to expand...

yes
 
E

eFKac

Member
lo zaffo said:
I cannot do the math, not only because I'm a westerner, but I guess with 150k copies in JPN alone Xenoblade Cross should hit break even point, especially if advertising budget is scarce budget. My choice of this 150k number is because it is what Xenoblade sold in JPN.
Click to expand...

Are you trying to say that XBX would become profitable with 150k copies sold?
 
V

Vena

Member
lo zaffo said:
I cannot do the math, not only because I'm a westerner, but I guess with 150k copies in JPN alone Xenoblade Cross should hit break even point, especially if advertising budget is scarce budget. My choice of this 150k number is because it is what Xenoblade sold in JPN.
Click to expand...

eFKac said:
Are you trying to say that XBX would become profitable with 150k copies sold?
Click to expand...

Let's go and do some math! We'll start with a ￥7000 release value (I realize its higher, but let's just go with lower so that I can round 86k to 90k):

￥7000*9e4*0.7 = ￥441,000,000

￥441,000,000 => $3,682,257

So unless XenobladeX cost ~$4million to develop, market, and ship, I doubt its anywhere near its break-even, and that's assuming that I took a large enough retail cut from the calculation. Roughly double that to 180k would still only be $7.36 million. Now, if it sells 200k-300k or so in the West (with a favorable helping had from Abe-nomics, US only as that number is reference to the original Xeno), it may well reach break even. Factor in Europe as well but I have no idea how the original did, I'd imagine France and Germany will pick this title up as well as or better than they did Bayo2. (Which I was trying to find but I can't find the actual numbers anywhere in the PAL charts. :/)

So unless something catastrophically bad happens or the game secretly cost hundreds of million USD to develop, I think it will recoup.

theprodigy said:
yes
Click to expand...

I wonder if this title wouldn't be an exception given its weird release nature.
 
L

Lumyst

Member
Nintendo made some risky content, which I think was part of a strategy they had in mind for attracting some core gamers. As in, the only way to attract a certain kind of core gamer, since Nintendo is not going to compete with specs, is to create some unusual content instead. So the game's value to Nintendo probably has more dimensions to it than just its sales numbers. Nintendo's business relies on having mainstream hits, so it's actually the decline in their once-mainstream franchises that I've come to see as the most concerning thing about the WiiU, rather than that unusual hardcore games are crazily hard to sell in huge numbers :p
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
I really don't get the sentiment. Pretty much up until launch to Mario Kart 8, we were playing the "how badly can this bomb" game with the Wii U. Heck, even afterwards we mostly have been looking at the same? I'm surprised folks actually predicted XBX doing reasonably. Xenoblade X actually is in line with the first title in its launch, and now that's just "w/e"? I realize if it has no legs, the sales will be really bad, but I have a feeling with an opening like this, then 150-160K the original hit in new sales isn't impossible (assuming the game is good), but I'm still keeping my expectations in check.

1st week software sales of Wii U titles starting in 2013 (since launch software #s seemed ok in comparison)....
Basically apart from Pikmin 3 & now MK8 (SSB Wii U was clearly cannibalized by SSB 3DS), the opening sales of every Wii U title have underwhelmed like crazy.

Remember this:
Dragon Quest X - 36,454 (we found out later it clearly had a lot of DLs behind the scenes, but we didn't know that to start)

or this:
Zelda WW HD: 31,154 - lowest opening for a Zelda title EVER in Japan

or this:
Super Mario 3D World - 106,967 - eek...

or most recently:
DKC:TF - 43,301
Kirby: Rainbow Curse - 33,334
 
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