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Official March 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

Kolgar

Member
WildArms said:
It's nearly 12am here in the UK and i'm debating with myself whether I should go to bed or not. Help!

Coupla' months back, I drove home like a madman at 5 p.m. CT to see the numbers posted at GAF. Three hours later, butkus.

If you have a busy day tomorrow, give it 15 more minutes and then go to bed.
 

Kolgar

Member
Are Juice's numbers right? 110K for PS3?

Kaz, I thought you said PS3 was "the bomb," not that it would bomb!

Code blue! Code blue! Seriously, we're talking life support. This is amazing and mind-blowing, or it was until Kaz uttered those fateful words, "Five-hundred ninety-nine U.S. dollars."

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

That said, Sony, how about showing me some PS3 Wipeout?
 

Juice

Member
Kolgar said:
Are Juice's numbers right? 110K for PS3?

Kaz, I thought you said PS3 was "the bomb," not that it would bomb!

Code blue! Code blue! Seriously, we're talking life support. This is amazing and mind-blowing, or it was until Kaz uttered those fateful words, "Five-hundred ninety-nine U.S. dollars."

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

That said, Sony, how about showing me some PS3 Wipeout?

That's actually me being late to the prediction thread. WOOPS.
 

Juice

Member
Juice said:
NDS: 420k
360: 230k
Wii: 350k
PS2: 280k
PSP: 170k
PS3: 110k
GBA: 140k
GC: 15k

Wow, I wasn't far off at all, but for too high of Wii and too low of DS.

Sonycowboy said:
HW Sales
Nintendo DS 508K
PlayStation 2 280K
Wii 259K
Xbox 360 199K
PlayStation Portable 180K
Game Boy Advance 148K
PlayStation 3 130K
GameCube 22K
Xbox n/a
 

Branduil

Member
Code:
               Pred.       Act.         Diff.
Nintendo DS     434K       508K        74K
PlayStation 2    275K       280K          5K
Wii               374K        259K      115K
Xbox 360         245K        199K        46K
PSP               208K        180K        28K
GBA              122K        148K          6K
PlayStation 3    130K        130K           0
GameCube         21K         22K          1K
Xbox             360           n/a           ?

Total Off- 295K
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Code:
System	Prediction	Actual	Delta
360	290	199	91
PS3	150	130	20
Wii	350	259	91
DS	500	508	8
PS2	375	280	95
PSP	275	180	95
GBA	175	148	27

Total Delta			427

Nailed DS, GBA, PS3. Tanked on the rest.

I suck at predictions, kids. Write it down. :lol
 
My worst month ever. SW I didn't do too badly minus missing the Baseball titles and Def Jam (and Spectrobes)

sonycowboy said:
This is going to be a hell of a month.

1) My HW Predictions:
NDS 450k 58k
Wii 350k 91k
PS2 325k 45k
360 280k 80k
PSP 230k 50k
PS3 175k 45k
GBA 160k 12k
GCN 30k 10k
Xbox 500

2) My SW Predictions
1) God of War 2 (PS2)
2) Ghost Recon: AW 2 (360)
3) Wii Play (Wii)
4) Guitar Hero 2 (360)
5) Crackdown (360)
6) Diddy Kong Racing (NDS)
7) GTA: Vice City Stories (PS2)
8) Motorstorm (PS3)
9) Guitar Hero 2 (PS2)
10) Zelda (Wii)

3) Ioi/Broshnat/VGCharts.org/vgchartz.com - completely putting their credibility on the line.

Now providing estimated weekly sales for NA. Someone can compare his results to NPD.

4) Storylines for the month, IMO
a) PS3 still bottoming out (HW)?
b) DS & Wii continuing their monster tear (HW)?
c) God of War PS2. Is the platform still viable for big hits?
d) Motorstorm PS3. Was it sent to die? Or can it do > 100k?
e) Guitar Hero 360. One weeks sales, looks to be huge.
f) PS2 HW - When does the decline begin?
g) 360 HW - When does the ascension begin?

5) Numbers to be posted ~ 6:30PM EST
 
GhaleonEB said:
Nailed DS
Well if you nailed it, then I nailed it right between the eyes :D

Code:
System | Sold | Prediction    | Difference

360	199	261,853 (262k)  +63
PS3	130	153,463 (153k)	+23
Wii	259	362,386 (362k)	+103
DS	508	508,751 (509k)	+1
PS2	280	308,661 (309k)	+29
PSP	180	215,079 (215k)	+35
GBA	148	159,284 (159k)	+11
GCN     22      35,117 (35k)    +13
XBX     <0.5k   400 (400)        0

Total difference			278k (265k without GCN/Xbox)
Generally, I over-estimated the five-week boost and greatly under-estimated the Wii shortages.
 

Bildi

Member
Code:
               Pred.     Act.         Diff.
Nintendo DS    510        508          +2
PlayStation 2  280        280          
Wii            350        259          +91
Xbox 360       260        199          +61
PSP            185        180          +5
GBA            145        148          -3
PlayStation 3  170        130          +40
GameCube       22         22           

Total diff                             +196K

I went OK on previous gen and handhelds, but my current gen were all way too optimistic.
 

Patton

Member
Code:
	Pred.	Sold	Difference
DS	500	508	8
Wii	380	259	121
PS2	250	280	30
PSP	225	180	45
360	200	199	1
PS3	150	130	20
GBA	125	148	23
GC	15	22	7
			
Total Difference		255

no bad for my first prediction
 

Xisiqomelir

Member
Code:
	Pred.	Sold	Difference
DS	490	508	18
Wii	310	259	51
PS2	270	280	10
PSP	190	180	10
360	220	199	21
PS3	130	130	0
GBA	125	148	23
GC	23	22	1
			
Total Difference		134

woot!
 
if it wasn't for the Nintendo DS it wouldn't look that bad for the first prediction:

NDS: 350k (-158k)
Wii: 300k (+41k)
PS2: 275k (-5k)
X360: 200k (+1k)
PSP: 190k (+10k)
PS3: 140k (+10k)
GBA: 120k (-18k)
 
Code:
	Pred.	Sold	Difference
DS	410	508	98
Wii	290	259	31
PS2	270	280	10
PSP	185	180	5
360	250	199	51
PS3	140	130	10
GBA	115	148	33
GC	15	22	7
			
Total Diff                                   245

ah I underestimated DS, I'll never do it again!
 

donny2112

Member
Most of the regulars I'm used to seeing at the top of the rankings didn't make it this month. This month was a kicker. :lol

March 2007 NPD Prediction Results (main 7 consoles only)

1. Xisiqomelir - 133K
2. Dice Man - 158K
3. the thoroughbred - 166K
4. jet1911 - 177K
5. LOCK - 186K
6. TheKurgan - 188K
7. Miniboss1232 - 197K
8. DSWii60 - 197K
9. Heidir - 198K
10. Bildi - 202K


Congratulations, Xisiqomelir! :D

Misc. Stats:
# of participants - 171
# predicting PS3 > 360 - 9
best rank for someone missing one of the seven main consoles - 83 (hint, hint)
Pachter's rank - 147
VGChart's rank - 162


Bonus Ranking - 360, PS3, and Wii only

1. the thoroughbred - 20K
2. TheKurgan - 42K
3. underfooter (#113 overall) - 50K


Edit:
I'll also be posting this in April's Prediction thread, in case someone misses this post.
 

Vagabundo

Member
donny2112 said:
Most of the regulars I'm used to seeing at the top of the rankings didn't make it this month. This month was a kicker. :lol

March 2007 NPD Prediction Results (main 7 consoles only)

1. Xisiqomelir - 133K
2. Dice Man - 158K
3. the thoroughbred - 166K
4. jet1911 - 177K
5. LOCK - 186K
6. TheKurgan - 188K
7. Miniboss1232 - 197K
8. DSWii60 - 197K
9. Heidir - 198K
10. Bildi - 202K


Congratulations, Xisiqomelir! :D

Misc. Stats:
# of participants - 171
# predicting PS3 > 360 - 9
best rank for someone missing one of the seven main consoles - 83 (hint, hint)
Pachter's rank - 147
VGChart's rank - 162


Bonus Ranking - 360, PS3, and Wii only

1. the thoroughbred - 20K
2. TheKurgan - 42K
3. underfooter (#113 overall) - 50K


Edit:
I'll also be posting this in April's Prediction thread, in case someone misses this post.

Anyway we can post all the ranks somewhere??

I was way off this month :D
 

Vagabundo

Member
donny2112 said:
I can, but it won't be formatted nicely.

Only if it is not too much trouble, I'm sure others would want to check their rank. All the work is Muchly Appreciated BTW...

You were tied for #74 with Blablurn and Cooter at 338K off for the 7 main consoles.

Haha, that has made my day!!

Pachter's rank - 147
VGChart's rank - 162
Pachter's rank - 147
VGChart's rank - 162
Pachter's rank - 147
VGChart's rank - 162
 

donny2112

Member
Vagabundo said:
Only if it is not too much trouble, I'm sure others would want to check their rank.

1. Xisiqomelir - 133K
2. Dice Man - 158K
3. the thoroughbred - 166K
4. jet1911 - 177K
5. LOCK - 186K
6. TheKurgan - 188K
7. Miniboss1232 - 197K
8. DSWii60 - 197K
9. Heidir - 198K
10. Bildi - 202K
11. justchris - 206K
12. «þ» - 208K
13. RubberJohnny - 217K
14. Odysseus - 222K
15. BrodiemanTTR - 227K
16. johnsmith - 233K
17. kpop100 - 237K
18. arne - 238K
19. Restricted_Area - 238K
20. Densha Otoko - 238K
21. Nuclear Muffin - 238K
22. apujanata - 238K
23. Freki - 239K
24. Patton - 248K
25. DeaconKnowledge - 252K
26. johnjohnson - 253K
27. ascii42 - 253K
28. legend166 - 262K
29. giant_frying_pan - 265.5K
30. Kurosaki Ichigo - 272K
31. felipeko - 272K
32. Nander - 273K
33. JonathanEx - 273K
34. BuzzJive - 277K
35. Pope Benedict XVI - 283K
36. duderon - 286K
37. milanbaros - 286K
38. hadareud - 287K
39. DodgerBlue - 288K
40. Aristotlekh - 291K
41. Gekkonidae - 292K
42. StevieP - 292K
43. d [- _-] b - 293K
44. Branduil - 294K
45. Haunted One - 297.4K
46. djtiesto - 298K
47. kallisto76 - 300K
48. rage1973 - 303K
49. F#A#Oo - 304K
50. The Sphinx - 306K
51. seattle6418 - 307K
52. 2600 - 308K
53. Clever Pun - 309K
54. swander - 310K
55. JJConrad - 311K
56. Bo130 - 313K
57. RZRiot - 315K
58. TurtleSnatcher - 316K
59. dyls - 316K
60. hyonoid - 318K
61. Doom_Bringer - 318K
62. Frankfurter - 321K
63. JB1981 - 322K
64. K.Jack - 324K
65. DefectiveReject - 325.6K
66. TheProfessor - 326K
67. Cruceh - 328K
68. TheDrowningMan - 331K
69. Jokeropia - 332K
70. fresquito - 332K
71. donny2112 - 334.5K
72. JoshuaJSlone - 336K
73. Son of Godzilla - 337K
74. Blablurn - 338K
75. Vagabundo - 338K
76. Cooter - 338K
77. DiatribeEQ - 340K
78. argon - 342K
79. Tf53 - 346K
80. Ganondorf>Link - 347K
81. schuelma - 348K
82. Orgen - 349K
83. Yoboman - 353K
84. ylvis_ - 356K
85. kottila - 359K
86. Mariah Carey - 360K
87. Brak - 361K
88. Chibbi Brady - 366K
89. Porkepik - 368K
90. Hammer24 - 370K
91. Segata Sanshiro - 370K
92. Revelations - 372K
93. Diablos54 - 372K
94. AniHawk - 380K
95. corez - 380K
96. Forgotten Ancient - 380K
97. deftangel - 382K
98. Potter - 382K
99. sonycowboy - 382K
100. gkrykewy - 386K
101. doicare - 387K
102. Flakster99 - 391K
103. Stop It - 391K
104. DayShallCome - 391K
105. Parl - 392K
106. PepsimanVsJoe - 392K
107. bycha - 401K
108. kisakiproject - 401K
109. Rekwest - 407K
110. VALIS - 409K
111. turtle553 - 409K
112. underfooter - 416K
113. rostocker - 419K
114. MasterMFauli - 421K
115. Earthstrike - 424K
116. Jewbacca - 425K
117. GhaleonEB - 427K
118. JDSN - 434K
119. theviolenthero - 441K
120. rs7k - 441K
121. devilscallmedad - 448K
122. acabado - 448K
123. manxor - 450K
124. MiamiWesker - 454K
125. Arsenal - 457.9K
126. tribal24 - 458K
127. mclem - 462K
128. Mr. Pointy - 467K
129. starship - 472K
130. Crypto - 478K
131. beermonkey@tehbias - 483.1K
132. acklame - 488K
133. Mrbob - 490K
134. MightyHedgehog - 498K
135. mood - 502K
136. bananabread - 503K
137. Bearillusion - 503K
138. InterMoniker - 505.1K
139. jj984jj - 506K
140. Hcoregamer00 - 511K
141. pswii60 - 511K
142. NMC2006 - 513K
143. 909er - 518K
144. Fredescu - 521K
145. Thraktor - 523.5K
146. SouthernDandie - 551K
147. Pachter - 562K
148. Mojovonio - 568K
149. oo Kosma oo - 593K
150. Javy007 - 702K
151. PhoenixDark - 708K
152. DevelopmentArrested - 752K
153. Evenball - 754K
154. NinSox - 758K
155. The Black Brad Pitt - 766K
156. Chiggs - 768K
157. Oblivion - 788K
158. Coop - 801K
159. Zorglub - 886K
160. NintendoGal - 923K
161. aztrex - 968K
162. VGCharts - 982K
163. Jtyettis - 1043K
164. gollumsluvslave - 1208K
165. Shnookums - 1238K
166. Emowii - 1271K
167. Karma Kramer - 1411K
168. S8 RoXoRz - 1418K
169. sedaku - 1468K
170. Idioteque - 1674K
171. bud - 9952K

Notes:
1) As I've mentioned before, if you don't predict for a console, I assume you think it will sell zero units. That's why it really helps to predict for all of the main seven consoles. ;)
2) If you have the same difference as the guy ranked ahead of you, it's probably safe to assume that you're actually tied to the guy ranked ahead of you. :)

Vagabundo said:
All the work is Muchly Appreciated BTW...

You're welcome. :)

Edit:
As the entire rankings are up, it's worth noting that the next highest rank after 83 for someone who didn't predict all seven main consoles is #109. Therefore, only one person in the top 108 didn't predict for all seven main consoles.
 
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