• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

F

Frag Waffles

Member
AstroNut325 said:
I honestly cannot imagine PS4 leading another NPD if Sony keeps the PS4 at $399 if the X1 is low $300s with multiple games.
Click to expand...

My guess is the X1 will end up being $350 after the holidays and PS4 will remain at $400. If that's the case, I see a return to status quo (PS4 winning as it did all this year) because the holiday madness along with MS crazy discounts and promotions won't be in effect.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Mikey Jr. said:
After Pachter said that XB1 would beat PS4 handily during Destiny release, I don't trust him anymore.

I mean, it was common sense PS4 beat X1. Not only did he say X1 beat PS4, but it did by a large amount. I'd honesty rather use ******** or whatever.
Click to expand...

You shouldn't use either one.

An intelligent, experienced GAFfer generally does a better job than both Pachter and Chartz.

Instead of looking at third-party sources, why not pay attention to what your fellow GAFfers have predicted?
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
Cornbread78 said:
Very few Wii-U's are shipped to stores and Sony is finally stuffign channes of PS4s since the sales boost. There were very few times during the PS3 era that we received large shipments of PS3s, but recently we've received several large shipments, including the new bundles shown here:


Walmart PS4 deal $399, 1 free game + $50 GC

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=947503&highlight=walmart


Hopefully, now that sales have picked up on WiiU's we will start getting them again soon.
Click to expand...

Do these new bundles dictate that Sony lost November and needed a bundle to compete with MS so they created these for December or were they preplanned?

I only ask because, I don't think I've seen Sony have another bundle type after their Black Friday bundle but I could be wrong.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
pharmboy044 said:
Do these new bundles dictate that Sony lost November and needed a bundle to compete with MS so they created these for December or were they preplanned?

I only ask because, I don't think I've seen Sony have another bundle type after their Black Friday bundle but I could be wrong.
Click to expand...

It was advertised on Newegg starting over a week before Black Friday, so it must of been their December plan all along.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Aquamarine said:
You shouldn't use either one.

An intelligent, experienced GAFfer generally does a better job than both Pachter and Chartz.

Instead of looking at third-party sources, why not pay attention to what your fellow GAFfers have predicted?
Click to expand...

Different Gaffers on here have largely varying opinions. Are there any on here who you could/would recommend as being a more reliable prediction than others?

I only ask because I am not exactly a longstanding member here, and it is sometimes hard to know who is, and how one person's opinion should weigh against another's.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Final Verdict said:
Different Gaffers on here have largely varying opinions. Are there any on here who you could/would recommend as being a more reliable prediction than others?

I only ask because I am not exactly a longstanding member here, and it is sometimes hard to know who is, and how one person's opinion should weigh against another's.
Click to expand...

Well, to be perfectly honest, Aqua is always a very thoughtful and insightful contributor, so she would be a good place to start^^ At the Gaf home page you can see the NPD threads area and look at past winners and try to get a feel for who the optimists, pessimists, and jokers are^^
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
SDCowboy said:
That depends. If they can sustain this price point, they may have found the perfect number that both raises their sales and takes from the PS4's. If Sony is going to stick with $400 for just the console, and the Bone stays somewhere in the $300's, I wouldn't be shocked if the PS4 doesn't win another NPD until there's a substantial price drop.
Click to expand...
They are also losing money on each unit sold; if they remove the games from the bundles and keep the base @ $349 they'll only break even and have to count on attach rate and XBL subs to make up the costs and get them profit.

Also, it doesn't really matter if XBO wins NPD from here on b/c in order to make up for underperformance in other markets and get any substantial profit MS would have to win each one by the hundreds of thousands, at the very least 2.5:1 their favor...for the rest of the foreseeable gen. That just won't be happening whatsoever and I don't think the system will take any further months after the holidays.
 
X

x-Lundz-x

Member
Yoda said:
The lack of any pre-emptive PR makes me think something isn't too rosy for MS. While I imagine they did better on BF due to the price differential, if they did THAT much better they'd easily have just announced something?
Click to expand...

I would imagine PR would not cone out until Wednesday at the earliest if they won.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Aquamarine said:
It is officially Tuesday, so NPD results come out the day after tomorrow.
Click to expand...
tumblr_mb7e7uLH0W1r300b1.png
 
T

TomShoe

Banned
[360] 310k
[3DS] 505k
[PS3] 180k
[PS4] 850k
[WIU] 310k
[XB1] 830k

Thanks to allan-bh, Cosmic Queso, Road, Shinra-Bansho, SwiftDeath, and Ty4on
 
K

kyser73

Member
Final Verdict said:
Different Gaffers on here have largely varying opinions. Are there any on here who you could/would recommend as being a more reliable prediction than others?

I only ask because I am not exactly a longstanding member here, and it is sometimes hard to know who is, and how one person's opinion should weigh against another's.
Click to expand...

Dude - do what the rest of us do & pull some numbers out of your ass.

[360] 100K
[3DS] 270K
[PS3] 80K
[PS4] 850K
[WIU] 400K
[XB1] 900K
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Are these sub 300k predictions for the 3DS serious btw? It seems like that would be a massive disappointment even with Nintendo doing barely anything in terms of bundling.
 
SaucyJack

SaucyJack

Member
Shawn Laydens one liner at PSX about PS4 being the fastest selling console of all time implies that it's year one figures are greater than Wii. What would that imply for November sales?
 
MaulerX

MaulerX

Member
SaucyJack said:
Shawn Laydens one liner at PSX about PS4 being the fastest selling console of all time implies that it's year one figures are greater than Wii. What would that imply for November sales?
Click to expand...



Don't think it implies much for November. If anything, if they didn't win November then it could be construed as pre-emptive PR talk to shift the focus to life-to-date sales.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
SaucyJack said:
Shawn Laydens one liner at PSX about PS4 being the fastest selling console of all time implies that it's year one figures are greater than Wii. What would that imply for November sales?
Click to expand...

Do you remember last year Nelson's PR spin : "fastest selling console"? :-D
 
T

theprodigy

Member
metalslimer said:
Are these sub 300k predictions for the 3DS serious btw? It seems like that would be a massive disappointment even with Nintendo doing barely anything in terms of bundling.
Click to expand...

yeah....3DS is gonna blow right by GAF's "average" with all those sub 300k predictions lol
 
H

Hammer24

Banned
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
They are also losing money on each unit sold; if they remove the games from the bundles and keep the base @ $349 they'll only break even and have to count on attach rate and XBL subs to make up the costs and get them profit.
Click to expand...

I´ve seen this stated a lot in the last couple of weeks as fact - but how do we know that's true? Did I miss some new bom analysis or something?
 
SaucyJack

SaucyJack

Member
Conduit said:
Do you remember last year Nelson's PR spin : "fastest selling console"? :-D
Click to expand...

Yes, and it was one of his less asinine quotes. Both sold a heap at launch but XB had been out for fewer weeks,it was kinda relevant then.

Laydens comment implies a whole lot more - circa 17.5 million globally now and on target to exceed 20.13 by year end.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
SaucyJack said:
Yes, and it was one of his less asinine quotes. Both sold a heap at launch but XB had been out for fewer weeks,it was kinda relevant then.

Laydens comment implies a whole lot more - circa 17.5 million globally now and on target to exceed 20.13 by year end.
Click to expand...
Could someone photoshop a cover?
Professor Layden and the Fastest Selling Console
 
L

le-seb

Member
SaucyJack said:
Laydens comment implies a whole lot more - circa 17.5 million globally now and on target to exceed 20.13 by year end.
Click to expand...
Or he just implied "within its first year" since they have a whole year of sales data, right?
That's how I've taken it, at least.
 
SaucyJack

SaucyJack

Member
le-seb said:
Or he just implied "within its first year" since they have a whole year of sales data, right?
That's how I've taken it, at least.
Click to expand...

Yes, which is the first part of what I was suggesting. The second part would only require them to keep being the fastest selling for an additional 6 weeks beyond its first year.
 
H

Hoo-doo

Banned
[360] 85K
[3DS] 260K
[PS3] 70K
[PS4] 875K
[WIU] 220K
[XB1] 920K

I expect XB1 to edge out the PS4 this month to break the PS4's winning streak.
 
D

donny2112

Member
monegames said:
Xbox had similar deals in March when Titanfall came out.
Click to expand...

The typical Christmas season console buyer is a different breed than the rest of the year console buyer. The one thinking of buying an XB1 in November at $350 is very possibly someone who never even noticed Titanfall or the other deals at $450 back then.

~10 hours left to predict for November!
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
Hammer24 said:
I´ve seen this stated a lot in the last couple of weeks as fact - but how do we know that's true? Did I miss some new bom analysis or something?
Click to expand...
We know XBO costs more than PS4 to manufacture, and Sony was breaking even at $399. MS was making profit at $499. When they removed the Kinect that should've put them at break-even at $399.

I doubt they got a refinement on their manufacturing process faster than Sony (b/c XBO has ESRAM) and if they did then Sony would have as well. Now w/ the price at $350 just the system alone that's a $50 loss. And they had to pay Ubisoft for the AC games to bundle in so that's more or a loss for each bundle sold.

They might make up the difference in XBL subs and games but if the bundles have been selling to more casual people, I doubt they've been buying any games (you get so many already w/ the bundles) and some of them come w/ free XBL so that's a lost paid sub right there.

That's the reason they'll likely remove the games but keep the price at $350 after the holidays.
 
H

Hammer24

Banned
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
We know XBO costs more than PS4 to manufacture, and Sony was breaking even at $399. MS was making profit at $499. When they removed the Kinect that should've put them at break-even at $399.
Click to expand...

Sorry to ask again - we know this how? I´d love to read up on this.

I doubt they got a refinement on their manufacturing process faster than Sony (b/c XBO has ESRAM) and if they did then Sony would have as well.
Click to expand...

This I doubt too, but both should be able to buy parts cheaper now than they did a year ago.
 
P

PhatSaqs

Banned
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
We know XBO costs more than PS4 to manufacture, and Sony was breaking even at $399. MS was making profit at $499. When they removed the Kinect that should've put them at break-even at $399.

I doubt they got a refinement on their manufacturing process faster than Sony (b/c XBO has ESRAM) and if they did then Sony would have as well. Now w/ the price at $350 just the system alone that's a $50 loss. And they had to pay Ubisoft for the AC games to bundle in so that's more or a loss for each bundle sold.

They might make up the difference in XBL subs and games but if the bundles have been selling to more casual people, I doubt they've been buying any games (you get so many already w/ the bundles) and some of them come w/ free XBL so that's a lost paid sub right there.

That's the reason they'll likely remove the games but keep the price at $350 after the holidays.
Click to expand...
Where are you getting your info from bro?

Cornbread78 said:
I just can;t wait to read MS's victory PR.... salt will be EVERYWHERE!
Click to expand...
FTFY
 
G

gtj1092

Member
PhatSaqs said:
Where are you getting your info from bro?


FTFY
Click to expand...

Don't know where he is getting his info but the XB1 soc would cost more to manufacture than the ps4 just by virtue of the size. Plus I would imagine that Ps4 cost have come down more quickly since they are manufacturing and selling more than Xb1. So yes no one knows the actual cost of the machines but there has to be a reasing MS is predicting nearly a billion dollars less in revenue for the division for the quarter. The money is coming from somewhere this promotion isn't free because if it was at no cost to MS then it would be permanent.

Do you predict this deal to be permanent?
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
Hammer24 said:
Sorry to ask again - we know this how? I´d love to read up on this.



This I doubt too, but both should be able to buy parts cheaper now than they did a year ago.
Click to expand...
There were articles not long after launch talking about profitability. Sony said from the start they were profitable with the purchase of ps+ and a game.
Google ps4 profit margin and you'll find a ton of stuff.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom