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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th

A

Aquamarine

Member
Aquamarine said:
PS4 / Xbox One November sales targets to beat (2nd Novembers):


Wii - 981K (November 2007)

PS2 - 919K (November 2001)

N64 - 764K (November 1997)

Xbox 360 - 511K (November 2006)

Xbox - 468K (November 2002)

PS3 - 466K (November 2007)
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Final Verdict said:
Interesting...

X1 gonna smash that 360 record with a golden hammer, but interesting to see that no console has ever broken the 1M record for their 2nd Nov.

I believe that the highest November sales month for any console ever was in 2011 (7th November) when the 360 sole like 1.7M units.

Speaking of which, It is hard to believe that this will be the 360's 10th year on the market!!!
And it is still selling almost as good as the Wii U!! (not that that is a huge achievement).
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Final Verdict said:
Hey Aqua, is it too late to edit our numbers...
:p
Click to expand...

That's one of the reasons I didn't go above 830K or so with my Xbox One prediction.

Yes, Microsoft has all sorts of wonderful deals. And yes, the market is increasingly shifting to November.

But I still don't feel comfortable with >1000K predictions for either console greater than what the Wii or PS2 achieved. Doesn't feel right.

Black Friday sales are down from last year as well.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Welfare said:
Wii sold over 2 million in November 08.

Also the achievement isn't that the 360 is selling almost as good as the Wii U, but is a failure that the Wii U is selling so close to the 360.
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Thanks, I was thinking I might have been wrong, but 2M!! That's just....wow

And yeah, I know, but it still is very impressive that the 360 is selling as well as it is 10 years after it's release....
I wonder if they will break 1M consoles sold for US this year, that would be huge for the team I'm sure.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Aquamarine said:
That's one of the reasons I didn't go above 830K or so with my Xbox One prediction.

Yes, Microsoft has all sorts of wonderful deals. And yes, the market is increasingly shifting to November.

But I still don't feel comfortable with >1000K predictions for either console greater than what the Wii or PS2 achieved. Doesn't feel right.

Black Friday sales are down from last year as well.
Click to expand...

I never saw your prediction :/

Did the OP already count up the numbers?
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Aquamarine said:
2.04 million consoles...

The Wii fad was in its absolute prime in November 2008.

Nothing else has ever matched it...not even the blockbuster DS could match such insane November sell-through.

Honestly, I don't see the PS4 or XB1 matching half that. 2.04 million...is really out of this world.





Yeah, it ended two days ago.
Click to expand...
Drat!!
Lesson learned for next time....
I guess I got caught up in all the deals and antidote reports, and had X1 just breaking 1M, with PS4 really close to it.

I still think they can both do about 800k, but now i see that 1M plus is very optimistic..

EDIT: Would be curious to know an aggregate GAF prediction as well as the number that have X1 wining vs PS4 winning.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Final Verdict said:
Drat!!
Lesson learned for next time....
I guess I got caught up in all the deals and antidote reports, and had X1 just breaking 1M, with PS4 really close to it.

I still think they can both do about 800k, but now i see that 1M plus is very optimistic..

EDIT: Would be curious to know an aggregate GAF prediction as well as the number that have X1 wining vs PS4 winning.
Click to expand...

GAF aggregate predictions:

donny2112 said:
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2014

1. XB1 - 941K
2. PS4 - 864K
3. 3DS - 447K
4. WIU - 332K
5. 360 - 233K
6. PS3 - 144K
Click to expand...
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Final Verdict said:
Drat!!
Lesson learned for next time....
I guess I got caught up in all the deals and antidote reports, and had X1 just breaking 1M, with PS4 really close to it.

I still think they can both do about 800k, but now i see that 1M plus is very optimistic..

EDIT: Would be curious to know an aggregate GAF prediction as well as the number that have X1 wining vs PS4 winning.
Click to expand...

yeah donny2112, get on this already! :p
 
G

GifGafIsTheBestGaf

Member
it seems amazon sold every stock they had of the gta5/tlou bundle because it disappeared
instead they have this new one

L6Wjzrj.png
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i guess that we will know about the results in ~8hrs?
 
S

Syrus

Banned
loaf of bread said:
Why do peole think XB1 was ahead for the first weeks? Wasn't that UK, not US.
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It was UK but amazon X1 was vastly ahead with 4-5 SKUs and on BF X1 bundle was top spot still. They also sold out all other SKUs.

Thats just amazon but still. Early signs lead to possible X1 winning
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
I'm quite happy with our GAF aggregate, I mean it could be waaaay off but based on everything we know it looks quite solid to me. Bit sad I guessed 666K for PS4 now, feel I under appreciated the value of their bundurus. Hope my 999K for XB1 is true :D would be a lovely number to get to ... 1k short of a mill, otherwise known as - we sold a million*

*accuracy to within 1K
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Xbox doesn't have this. All they have is US, maybe UK and that's nearly it.
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It might still be too early to say that is it? I know it gets said a lot and downplayed just as much, but XBO might still have China to count on. They had a better launch there than they could ever hope for in any other Asian country, if they drop the price some and get some solid games they can do well there. I'm not talking mega-well; the market size is probably exaggerated-but at least well enough to make up for some of those other markets they aren't too hot in.

Aquamarine said:
It's funny because Chartz was absolutely bonkers this month with their Xbox One salez number (1439K XB1, 1057K PS4).

Xbox One coming out a solid 600K below Chartz will be lovely.
Click to expand...
Makes me wonder how off they are with the PS4 numbers then...

For the record I think VGC should stick around. If no one takes them seriously they can always become the gaming equivalent of The Onion.
 
B

BadWolf

Member
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
It might still be too early to say that is it? I know it gets said a lot and downplayed just as much, but XBO might still have China to count on. They had a better launch there than they could ever hope for in any other Asian country, if they drop the price some and get some solid games they can do well there. I'm not talking mega-well; the market size is probably exaggerated-but at least well enough to make up for some of those other markets they aren't too hot in.
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The PS4 will be much cheaper than an X1 and is rumored to be region free.

Can easily see the PS4 dominating there.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
hepburn3d said:
I have absolutely no chance of keeping up with this then. Catching up on a 100 pages in this thread, as well as the NPD Official thread that's usually at 200 pages when I get up and also trying to browse YouTube channels! See you all on the other side of the mountain.
Click to expand...

The journey is not easy... but worth it
 
F

FF Seraphim

Member
Guymelef said:
What would be the reactions if XBO wins 100k-200k difference only.
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For the price I think we need 200k+ for people to think MS really came out on top with their sale strategy because lets be honest if the system goes back to regular price in January it will get slaughtered by the PS4.
 
T

TomShoe

Banned
Guymelef said:
What would be the reactions if XBO wins 100k-200k difference only.
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Pretty nonchalant. It's not really a "victory" for Xbox One because they've done so much, yet to cut the lead by only 100K (Current lead is 1.1M IIRC) doesn't seem like they're making enough headway.
 
T

travisbickle

Member
allan-bh said:
100k is kinda expected, 200k I think will be seen as a solid win, but some people will try to downplay.
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Sony's average for monthly wins since January is probably greater than 200k. That's not a win. 300k+ with the PS4 under the million milestone is a solid win for MS, and shows people are choosing one over the other.
 
D

Daviii

Member
They will win by well over 100K this month, they desperately need to have a PR saying something like that.

And then... what? PS4 will be dominating by 1M instead of 1.1M and once they go back to 399 nobody will buy the console for the following months, while sony has the order and bloodborne just around the corner.

MS is just going for November NPD with the hopes to change perception and get some attention, they know beggining 2015 is going to be a bloodbath
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
Daviii said:
They will win by well over 100K this month, they desperately need to have a PR saying something like that.

And then... what? PS4 will be dominating by 1M instead of 1.1M and once they go back to 399 nobody will buy the console for the following months, while sony has the order and bloodborne just around the corner.

MS is just going for November NPD with the hopes to change perception and get some attention, they know beggining 2015 is going to be a bloodbath
Click to expand...

That presumes they don't make the $350 price cut permanent.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Aquamarine said:
Yes, Microsoft has all sorts of wonderful deals. And yes, the market is increasingly shifting to November.

But I still don't feel comfortable with >1000K predictions for either console greater than what the Wii or PS2 achieved. Doesn't feel right.

Black Friday sales are down from last year as well.
Click to expand...
It'll probably come back and bite me, but I pushed predictions for them as far down as I could for similar reasons.
Sales are down, both are more selling more like 360 and PS3 and I feel their audience is much older.

I'm probably wrong, short term changes are smaller than they appear and I spent no time properly researching older November sales and what deals and game releases they had. That's why I love making predictions. It's so easy to say in hindsight that I knew things would go one way or another, but these prove time and time again that I'm wrong :p
 
W

wotta

Member
Daviii said:
They will win by well over 100K this month, they desperately need to have a PR saying something like that.

And then... what? PS4 will be dominating by 1M instead of 1.1M and once they go back to 399 nobody will buy the console for the following months, while sony has the order and bloodborne just around the corner.

MS is just going for November NPD with the hopes to change perception and get some attention, they know beggining 2015 is going to be a bloodbath
Click to expand...

MS won last November did it not? That' didn't help much. I don't think anyone cares about NPD's except people on Gaf and those who read the press releases. The ordinary consumer will know no different.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It really comes down to whether the dramatic price cuts and offers of the Xbone continues to have an impact in the coming months.
 
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