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Nintendo Going Mobile: Smartphone Game Deal with DeNA [First Games Fall 2015]

Somnid

Member
I think it would be cool if these mobile games they are making made it to the handhelds. Unless they are like, strictly touch based.

Even then I don't see the problem, Nintendo devices have had touch screens since before it was cool.

I'm most curious about how Nintendo can leverage Amiibo in the mobile space. All flagship devices come with NFC so it seems like a great way to sell those too.
 

Tobor

Member
Again though, that's across a vastly larger userbase with far, far more developers, which is the main point. Even if mobile gaming as a whole makes more revenue than console gaming, that's still split up between far, far more devs than consoles have to deal with. It doesn't matter to anyone but apple and google and the like how much revenue the market as a whole is making, since they only get their own cut. Also, you're extrapolating the growth which is a statistical fallacy.

Do you count every freeware PC developer when you discuss PC gaming revenue? Yes, there are far more developers in mobile than console, but most of them aren't relevant to the generation of mobile gaming revenue. There is plenty of room for Nintendo to step into a massive growth market and earn.
 

Opiate

Member
So it seems that Nintendo is still making dedicated hardware.

If so it doesn't bother me if they want to do some mobile games. I don't understand why some are freaking out.

Because it's a major change for which we aren't really sure of many particulars yet.

Big change can be scary. It's entirely possible that, 6 years from now, we will all agree that Nintendo is stronger than ever.

It's also possible that Nintendo will be weaker, though. That this won't pan out. It's also possible they'll be stronger, but in ways that people on GAF don't care about, in the same way that the Wii may have been a huge success but many would have preferred Nintendo made a more traditional console anyway for their personal needs.

It's not clear. The future is demonstrably uncertain and cloudy. That scares people, and not just in regards to video games.
 
Yep. Essentially smartphones are an advertising platform for Nintendo.

They are considering smartphones a "Nintendo platform".

This isn't going to be minigames or demos. Not the same games, but games full games still.

They aren't partnering with DeNA and buying a 10% of their stock to launch demos...
 

JoeM86

Member
You're wrong. It was $25 billion, and you're missing the key point. That's a 43% increase from 2013. By the end of 2015, mobile gaming is expected to surpass revenue for console gaming for the first time. Not just Nintendo. All console gaming revenue.

Nintendo had to do this, and do it now. In 5 years mobile gaming revenue will dwarf every other revenue stream. It won't even be close.

http://fortune.com/2015/01/15/mobile-console-game-revenues-2015/

And it being $25 billion at that point with that userbase and so forth is still ridiculously low. That's what I'm trying to say. Yes, it's growing. I'm not debating that, but can you not see how low that is? It should be much higher. Much higher than a double of it, too.
 
Yep. Essentially smartphones are an advertising platform for Nintendo.

That's my expectation. A poorly handled execution of a mobile plan could destroy the company. But if they're smart about this, it could corner the downmarket for another generation. All the kids who play games on their parents iPads will grow up to be the kids who buy consoles. Getting the mindshare now is a lot easier than doing it later.

And it being $25 billion at that point with that userbase and so forth is still ridiculously low. That's what I'm trying to say. Yes, it's growing. I'm not debating that, but can you not see how low that is? It should be much higher. Much higher than a double of it, too.

Many, many companies in history have been destroyed by ignoring competitors because the competitors were only interest in the undesirable customers.
 
EA doesn't make handheld hardware. If Nintendo can make bank with their IPs on the phone/tablet smart device route and are able to upsell through that to their console, I see no possibility of a new gameboy or DS or whatever after anything they currently have in the works is done

That was a possibility whether they did this or not. The dedicated handheld market all but disappeared in the span of two to three years in NA and Europe. It has contracted pretty heavily in Japan, but completely cratered in those prior two markets.

Something had to be done. Releasing another handheld, while hedging bets on the mobile front was the smartest thing Nintendo could have done.
 
I'm not sure why there's so much "sky is falling" fear over this. It barely sounds like anything at all. Some basic licensing and some simple software experiences that cater to phones. Nothing about this sounds like Nintendo properly moving their important software to phones. This seems like dipping a toe into the water at most.

I personally hope they go further with it at some point, but I know that's an unpopular opinion. I'd love to see Nintendo's high quality games on a phone (I'd happily buy a controller of some sort to play it properly).
 

Opiate

Member
Do you count every freeware PC developer when you discuss PC gaming revenue? Yes, there are far more developers in mobile than console, but most of them aren't relevant to the generation of mobile gaming revenue. There is plenty of room for Nintendo to step into a massive growth market and earn.

Right, while it's true that there are far more mobile developers than console, it doesn't mean that no one is capable of a major hit on mobile. Yes, there are probably 10x more iOS developers than PS/Xbox developers... but that hasn't stopped Clash of Clans from being an unmitigated monster hit. Yes, there are lots of Android developers making small sums... but then there is also Rovio.

It doesn't guarantee Nintendo riches or anything, but if the question is "Can you make a ton of money on mobile game development?" The answer is clearly yes.
 

Oppo

Member
And it being $25 billion at that point with that userbase and so forth is still ridiculously low. That's what I'm trying to say. Yes, it's growing. I'm not debating that, but can you not see how low that is? It should be much higher. Much higher than a double of it, too.

Tobor is figuratively pointing at a graph with a dramatic sweeping up-curve and you have your finger on one point near the bottom, saying "this is low".
 
Well...

CAToV3WUQAADu-l.png:large


source

Today:

Please note, however, that I was not dismissing the idea of making games for smart devices per se as I stated at the January 2014 Corporate Management Policy Briefing that a development team of Nintendo would create a smart device application, and please also note that I had not ruled out the possibility of making games when we make use of these devices.

I remember people posting quotes about him promising there wouldn't be droughts year after year and now this gem, I'm left wondering if people take what Iwata says seriously? He seems indecisive at best, a liar at worst.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
"Why would I buy this console/handheld? I'm already playing Mario on my iPhone"

I think they acknowledged the fact that they have a small hardcore base. They will keep developing for that small base and make money out of it, but they are not expecting big increases on this market even in the future. They will still try to make a hit ( NX - brand new concept), but if it fails they will have a third pillar as back-up.
 

Cyd0nia

Banned
EA isn't trying to sell you dedicated hardware. How bout a comparison with Microsoft or sony.

Microsoft allowing Nokia android handsets and apps, Smart Glass and other Xbox related apps... Sony allowing PS Now on Samsung Smart TVs this year. Although soon to be scrapped (replaced?) there's the PSM store for Sony mobile devices and games too. Sony and Microsoft are more diversified than Nintendo to begin with.

Don't be surprised if Microsoft and Sony follow Nintendos leadership (again) and you see Rareware IP or Uncharted or Ape Escape or something gracing smart devices.
 

AgeEighty

Member
I'm not sure why there's so much "sky is falling" fear over this. It barely sounds like anything at all. Some basic licensing and some simple software experiences that cater to phones. Nothing about this sounds like Nintendo properly moving their important software to phones.

I think a lot of people just flat-out aren't reading the stories before they comment.
 

Effect

Member
They are considering smartphones a "Nintendo platform".

This isn't going to be minigames or demos. Not the same games, but games full games still.

They aren't partnering with DeNA and buying a 10% of their stock to launch demos...

Full games but don't for a second think they aren't going to be mini-games. Nintendo sells mini-games as full games already. What do you think Mario Party is? It's a mini-game collection. They aren't bad things. However you aren't getting a full 3D or even a full 2D Zelda. You could do it but it would control horribly. People don't really like how the DS Zelda games play and you still have buttons with that game. Don't expect that and people should get that out of their minds already.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
And it being $25 billion at that point with that userbase and so forth is still ridiculously low. That's what I'm trying to say. Yes, it's growing. I'm not debating that, but can you not see how low that is? It should be much higher. Much higher than a double of it, too.

You're assuming all smartphone owners are gamers. A bit like judging whether Steam is a successful market against how many PC's exist as a sum total in the world.

Arguing against a $25 billion market and a 28% stock jump is not being on the right side of an argument.

I remember people posting quotes about him promising there wouldn't be droughts year after year and now this gem, I'm left wondering if people take what Iwata says seriously? He seems indecisive at best, a liar at worst.

Iwata stopped being in control post-Wii and not being able to capture lightning in a bottle again. Now Nintendo is a (slightly slow) reactionary company because the world and market at large has forced them to become so. Amiibo's, smartphone games... they're a trend chaser now.
 

Juice

Member
I'm shocked GAF didn't go down over this. It speaks to how much attrition their own hardcore fanbase has suffered I think.

I think they handled the announcement well but I have pretty low expectations that they'll be any more successful than the bare minimum success their brands will guarantee. If it makes them buckets of money great.

As it is there's like a seven year generation of kids who don't know nintendo at all. Maybe this will stop the bleeding.
 

harmonize

Member
They are considering smartphones a "Nintendo platform".

This isn't going to be minigames or demos. Not the same games, but games full games still.
That's not what he said though, they can make games specifically for phones in mind while also using them primarily to broaden the audience that knows about their IPs who will then in turn buy their dedicated hardware.

Of course, Nintendo will utilize smart devices as communication media for Nintendo IP.
 

JoeM86

Member
Tobor is figuratively pointing at a graph with a dramatic sweeping up-curve and you have your finger on one point near the bottom, saying "this is low".

No. I have my finger on the current value, not an estimation, saying that given the numbers of users and developers, it's way too low for what would be expected. Before I learned of the number, with the way analysts etc. were going on about it, I was expecting it to be 10 times the figure it is.

You're assuming all smartphone owners are gamers. A bit like judging whether Steam is a successful market against how many PC's exist as a sum total in the world.

Arguing against a $25 billion market and a 25% stock jump is not being on the right side of an argument.

I'm not arguing against it. I'm just saying that it's much lower than expected.
 

flohen95

Member
Today:



I remember people posting quotes about him promising there wouldn't be droughts every year and now this gem, I'm left wondering if people take what Iwata says seriously? He seems indecisive at best, a liar at worst.

Well, Nintendo, being a traded company, had to give in to it's shareholders someday. But yeah, Iwata didn't stand by his word here and deserves to be called out for that.
 

Ishan

Junior Member
god damn it shouldt have got the nintendo stock the moment the news hit gaf.

hmm also im kind of hopeful, if anything someone like nintendo could make games that take advantage of touch controls etc. Might be buying my first nintendo game in 20 years soon.
 

takoyaki

Member
Not sure if this has been covered already, the different threads are hard to keep up with. In Asahi Shinbun's writeup of the story it is specifically mentioned that the first smartphone game(s) using Nintendo characters will be released this year.

これまで任天堂はスマホへの展開に慎重だったが、自社のキャラクターをスマホ経由で広めた方が売り上げ増につながると判断した。任天堂キャラを使った最初のスマホゲームを年内に出す。

http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASH3K5Q76H3KPLFA00F.html
 

Tobor

Member
And it being $25 billion at that point with that userbase and so forth is still ridiculously low. That's what I'm trying to say. Yes, it's growing. I'm not debating that, but can you not see how low that is? It should be much higher. Much higher than a double of it, too.

You're pulling that out of thin air. It should be double? Based on what? 43% growth YOY is fucking huge. The market is exploding.

Do you think PC gaming revenue is low based on user base as well? Steam hit 9 million concurrent users recently. Is that low in your opinion based on user base? Hint: it isn't.
 

Schnozberry

Member
It was in the Q&A where they mentioned that Nintendo will handle the front end while DeNA will handle the back end. It even in the slides where DeNA is presented as specialist in internet, infrastructure, back end practically. This is not Hyrule Warriors, Nintendo has now 10% of DeNA and DeNA has 1% of Nintendo. It's a long term thing.

Of course, it's a strategic partnership that extends way beyond mobile games. The press release was very specific about the strategy for mobile. They are meant to extend Nintendo's profitability and simultaneously draw new people into their core business.
 

Astral Dog

Member
Today:



I remember people posting quotes about him promising there wouldn't be droughts year after year and now this gem, I'm left wondering if people take what Iwata says seriously? He seems indecisive at best, a liar at worst.
Well any reasonable person would have expected droughts, its on 3DS, was on Wii(for hardcore games) Wii U, Nintendo can't support a platform all by themselves, or even a system where its main market is Japan.
also, while that could be lying, in the end its a sensible business decision.
 

Opiate

Member
And it being $25 billion at that point with that userbase and so forth is still ridiculously low. That's what I'm trying to say. Yes, it's growing. I'm not debating that, but can you not see how low that is? It should be much higher. Much higher than a double of it, too.

How do you decide this? What "should" revenue be?
 
I want to hear what the stockholders are saying, wish we could get some quotes, haha. Especially the one(s) who would incessantly ask about Nintendo smartphone games at every one of the annual shareholder meets for quite a few years now. Must be laughing all the way to the bank and rubbing it in everyone's faces, at least for the moment.
 
Full games but don't for a second think they aren't going to be mini-games. Nintendo sells mini-games as full games already. What do you think Mario Party is? It's a mini-game collection. They aren't bad things. However you aren't getting a full 3D or even a full 2D Zelda. You could do it but it would control horribly. People don't really like how the DS Zelda games play and you still have buttons with that game. Don't expect that.

NIntendo wants to make a bank, and they aren't going to do it with minigames. They are gonna be full fledged mobile games, would you call Puzzle and Dragons a minigame? Or Clash of Clans?

People are talking like if they are gonna release Zelda Basball Minigame with a big ad at the end which says:"BUY A NEW 3DS" and call it a day. Nintendo wants to make money from this, presumably a lot of it.
 

Vibranium

Banned
I don't think it is the end of the world, guys. I know people were concerned with Pokemon Shuffle but I think Nintendo will handle this all right.
 
Pokemon Puzzle League.

Since you idiots don't want to swim in cash on the 3DS or Wii U with such a title, release one for mobile with IAPs for different Pokemon boards/backgrounds.

You're fucking welcome.
 

ghst

thanks for the laugh
and so the sun begins to set on gaming's proprietary upbringing.

go forth and conquer, there is more to the world than you know.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I'm not arguing against it. I'm just saying that it's much lower than expected.

Expected against what? A complete fantasy-land inflated figure that enables you to still look down upon it?
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
So generally I feel this is a slam dunk for both parties.

On Nintendo's side, they're likely getting some ridiculous royalty like 35-50% of the money made after Apple/Google take their cut.

DeNA is a prominant, long time Japanese mobile vendor that specializes in adapting licensed IPs into successful games that are well tuned for mobile audiences, and have had some good success overseas. While they were most prominent in the feature phone days, they do still have modern successes in Japan, have some remaining success in the West, and with the strength of IPs like this, should be able to make very significant launches that both acquire and monetize well. There are very few companies that have success both domestically and abroad in mobile, so this is notable.

Given that mobile now dominates the casual market, holds great sway over children, and is the dominant form of gaming in many emerging markets (and even Japan for that matter), Nintendo will also get their brands in front of many more people, which makes them much more valuable as licensable IP for merchandizing and transmedia efforts. It keeps Nintendo's IPs relevant as well in world where handhelds are fading and Nintendo's consoles are borderline moribund.

As an even further bonus, the type of games that succeed on mobile have very little overlap with those that work on handhelds, so for the short and mid-term, Nintendo can keep on making handheld games without hugely fearing cannibalization. Obviously there will be some amount of cannibalization, but given how much handheld retraction has already happened, Nintendo might end up gaining as many new converts as they lose to people who are happy to just have a Mario autorunner on their phone. In the short term they could even grow a bit, though I think the long term prospect is still a steady decline. With the NX account system, they can try and encourage this as well by doing things like sending Pokemon to your 3DS/4DS game box by achieving certain things in Puzzles & Pokemon or vice versa, which helps entice people to play both.

On DeNA's side, this is quite possibly the biggest licensing deal in mobile history. Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. This also gives them a great avenue to worldwide relevance instead of earning overwhelmingly from Japan. Acquiring all these new users to their platform is a great way to boost their other games as well. Beyond that, assuming these games are successful, which they almost assuredly will be, it also gives them a great sales pitch for licensing more IP to boot.

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.
 

JoeM86

Member
How do you decide this? What "should" revenue be?

You're misinterpreting me. I'm just saying that based on how dominant the industry is said to be, how large it is since so many have phones/tablets, how all the "casual" players are jumping on, I was expecting the revenue to be much, much larger.
 
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