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[Condom]

You mean first to the party, right? Sony has dipped their toes in mobile a bit, Microsoft has basically ignored it entirely. Nintendo is the first to go all in on mobile.

Yeah Microsoft only has a whole mobile operating system.

Jesus Christ people, Nintendo is just late again. Like always #Latetendo

 

[Opiate]

No. I have my finger on the current value, not an estimation, saying that given the numbers of users and developers, it's way too low for what would be expected. Before I learned of the number, with the way analysts etc. were going on about it, I was expecting it to be 10 times the figure it is.

As an economist, I can tell you that your expectations are not reasonable. Here's why mobile is viewed as a growth market:

1) The number of users is growing very rapidly worldwide. Contrast this with consoles, where the number of consoles sold last generation will likely be significantly higher than the number of consoles sold this generation -- that is, the console market is contracting. The first and most important sign of growth is an increasing number of customers.

2) Increasing revenue generation both per unit and per user. Both of these are excellent signs.

 

[Cosmozone]

I got some stock in time, but not enough, it seems. Underestimated the market's hunger for Nintendo mobile. So when to sell...? It could go even higher. Damn greed.

 

[AGITΩ]

Stocks will be fun to watch today.


Anyone remember those Touch Mini Games on Super Mario 64 DS...Thats the kind of stuff I am expecting.

 

[Astorgh]

This is why Nintendo has decided to utilize smart devices aggressively.
Very simply put, it is structurally the same as when Nintendo, which was founded 125 years ago when there were no TVs, started to aggressively take advantage of TV as a communication channel. Now that smart devices have grown to become the window for so many people to personally connect with society, it would be a waste not to use these devices.

We have no intention at all to port existing game titles for dedicated game platforms to smart devices because if we cannot provide our consumers with the best possible play experiences, it would just ruin the value of Nintendo’s IP.

What I expect from this is DeNA developing Flappy Birdo or Mario Runner type of games while Nintendo keeps their main focus on consoles. This is the only way they could reach this audiences that were lost from start.

 

[Omega Kirby]

This is the future, adapt or die

 

[Splash Wave]

My worst nightmare...sadly this could become a reality.

Fuck everything.

Do you really think this is what Nintendo would make for phones?

 

[Cyd0nia]

NIntendo wants to make a bank, and they aren't going to do it with minigames. They are gonna be full fledged mobile games, would you call Puzzle and Dragons a minigame? Or Clash of Clans?

I get what you're saying, but in terms of investment and quantity of high cost content - those ARE mini compared to AAA Nintendo games - relativistically speaking.

Hes just saying people shouldn't expect Metroid Prime, Mario Galaxy or Zelda Wii U scale projects. Which due to the economics of the market - they shouldn't.

 

[Opiate]

You're misinterpreting me. I'm just saying that based on how dominant the industry is said to be, how large it is since so many have phones/tablets, how all the "casual" players are jumping on, I was expecting the revenue to be much, much larger.

I'll continue to elaborate on variables.

1) Lower barriers to entry. This is huge; it means that small companies can have truly hit games, and become larger companies. Most of the major hits on iOS were made by small companies -- at least, what were then small companies. Supercell isn't small now.

2) Lower production cost. You can sell a game with 1/10th the revenue generation if it costs 1/10th as much to develop and produce.

3) Growth rate. It isn't just where it is; it's the trajectory it's currently on. Revenue growth in mobile gaming has been consistently very high for years, and is on a clear trajectory to pass console gaming in the near future.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Yeah, you are absolutely right on that. I guess being forced to really face that reality (which this news/partnership is prompting) is unsettling.

I was a huge Sega fan in the 90's.

I know the fears and feels some of you are having, but change is going to happen whether you're ready for it or not. Embrace it.

It could be amazing or a disaster.

Or an amazing disaster.

 

[Mpl90]

Today:



I remember people posting quotes about him promising there wouldn't be droughts year after year and now this gem, I'm left wondering if people take what Iwata says seriously? He seems indecisive at best, a liar at worst.

Iwata, today, referred to what he said last year, when he didn't exclude the possibility. He didn't want press to report that they were developing Mario on smartphones, and their first intent was to create apps like the Mii app they mentioned recently, but he didn't flatout deny the possibility. Surely, things escalated quickly, though :lol

Despite that, this is all part of the brand new strategy outlined first back in January 2014. The majority of the announcements / initiatives back then have been quite followed by actions. Some others need more time due to being mid-long term projects (like "consoles being more like brothers", or NintendOS...for which we had some additional hints today, through the announcement of the new membership service as a "core element" of NX).

 

[JoeM86]

As an economist, I can tell you that your expectations are not reasonable. Here's why mobile is viewed as a growth market:

1) The number of users is growing very rapidly worldwide. Contrast this with consoles, where the number of consoles sold last generation will likely be significantly higher than the number of consoles sold this generation -- that is, the console market is contracting. The first and most important sign of growth is an increasing number of customers.

2) Increasing revenue generation both per unit and per user. Both of these are excellent signs.

Well I'm not saying it's not growing. All I'm saying is that I'm surprised at how low it is right now.

But fine, I concede.

 

[rjinaz]

This is the future, adapt or die

Well I'm not so sure it's THE future, but it's certainly a large part of it, as is VR gaming as far as I'm concerned. Gaming is changing whether people like it or not. It had a good run as it was. That's not to say though that traditional experiences won't still exist, they will, and probably for a long time still.

 

[slit]

Because it's a major change for which we aren't really sure of many particulars yet.

Big change can be scary. It's entirely possible that, 6 years from now, we will all agree that Nintendo is stronger than ever.

It's also possible that Nintendo will be weaker, though. That this won't pan out. It's also possible they'll be stronger, but in ways that people on GAF don't care about, in the same way that the Wii may have been a huge success but many would have preferred Nintendo made a more traditional console anyway for their personal needs.

It's not clear. The future is demonstrably uncertain and cloudy. That scares people, and not just in regards to video games.

I agree, but with the way things are going the future was cloudy anyway. Maybe it won't work but I mean at least they are doing something to rectify the situation. I think some are being silly worrying that Nintendo making mobile games equates with going 3rd party in the dedicated space. At least that's the way some are acting. Things always change, they have to.

 

[Eternal Gamer]

I am excited at the possiblity of a Panel de Pon or Picross on my smartphone

 

[Zalman]

So generally I feel this is a slam dunk for both parties.

On Nintendo's side, they're likely getting some ridiculous royalty like 35-50% of the money made after Apple/Google take their cut.

DeNA is a prominant, long time Japanese mobile vendor that specializes in adapting licensed IPs into successful games that are well tuned for mobile audiences, and have had some good success overseas. While they were most prominent in the feature phone days, they do still have modern successes in Japan, have some remaining success in the West, and with the strength of IPs like this, should be able to make very significant launches that both acquire and monetize well. There are very few companies that have success both domestically and abroad in mobile, so this is notable.

Given that mobile now dominates the casual market, holds great sway over children, and is the dominant form of gaming in many emerging markets (and even Japan for that matter), Nintendo will also get their brands in front of many more people, which makes them much more valuable as licensable IP for merchandizing and transmedia efforts. It keeps Nintendo's IPs relevant as well in world where handhelds are fading and Nintendo's consoles are borderline moribund.

As an even further bonus, the type of games that succeed on mobile have very little overlap with those that work on handhelds, so for the short and mid-term, Nintendo can keep on making handheld games without hugely fearing cannibalization. Obviously there will be some amount of cannibalization, but given how much handheld retraction has already happened, Nintendo might end up gaining as many new converts as they lose to people who are happy to just have a Mario autorunner on their phone. In the short term they could even grow a bit, though I think the long term prospect is still a steady decline. With the NX account system, they can try and encourage this as well by doing things like sending Pokemon to your 3DS/4DS game box by achieving certain things in Puzzles & Pokemon or vice versa, which helps entice people to play both.

On DeNA's side, this is quite possibly the biggest licensing deal in mobile history. Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. This also gives them a great avenue to worldwide relevance instead of earning overwhelmingly from Japan. Acquiring all these new users to their platform is a great way to boost their other games as well. Beyond that, assuming these games are successful, which they almost assuredly will be, it also gives them a great sales pitch for licensing more IP to boot.

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.

Spot-on.

 

[Coolwhip]

I'm really curious if dem kids will care about Mario and Zelda.

 

[evilromero]

I was a huge Sega fan in the 90's.

I know the fears and feels some of you are having, but change is going to happen whether you're ready for it or not. Embrace it.

It could be amazing or a disaster.

Or an amazing disaster.

And let's not kid ourselves, good games will continue to be made whether from Nintendo or someone else.

 

[rekameohs]

Stocks will be fun to watch today.


Anyone remember those Touch Mini Games on Super Mario 64 DS...Thats the kind of stuff I am expecting.

Those would be perfect.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I am excited at the possiblity of a Panel de Pon or Picross on my smartphone

If Nintendo put Picross 3D on a smartphone, my girlfriend could keep the company afloat single-handedly.

 

[7DollarHagane]

So generally I feel this is a slam dunk for both parties.

On Nintendo's side, they're likely getting some ridiculous royalty like 35-50% of the money made after Apple/Google take their cut.

DeNA is a prominant, long time Japanese mobile vendor that specializes in adapting licensed IPs into successful games that are well tuned for mobile audiences, and have had some good success overseas. While they were most prominent in the feature phone days, they do still have modern successes in Japan, have some remaining success in the West, and with the strength of IPs like this, should be able to make very significant launches that both acquire and monetize well. There are very few companies that have success both domestically and abroad in mobile, so this is notable.

Given that mobile now dominates the casual market, holds great sway over children, and is the dominant form of gaming in many emerging markets (and even Japan for that matter), Nintendo will also get their brands in front of many more people, which makes them much more valuable as licensable IP for merchandizing and transmedia efforts. It keeps Nintendo's IPs relevant as well in world where handhelds are fading and Nintendo's consoles are borderline moribund.

As an even further bonus, the type of games that succeed on mobile have very little overlap with those that work on handhelds, so for the short and mid-term, Nintendo can keep on making handheld games without hugely fearing cannibalization. Obviously there will be some amount of cannibalization, but given how much handheld retraction has already happened, Nintendo might end up gaining as many new converts as they lose to people who are happy to just have a Mario autorunner on their phone. In the short term they could even grow a bit, though I think the long term prospect is still a steady decline. With the NX account system, they can try and encourage this as well by doing things like sending Pokemon to your 3DS/4DS game box by achieving certain things in Puzzles & Pokemon or vice versa, which helps entice people to play both.

On DeNA's side, this is quite possibly the biggest licensing deal in mobile history. Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. This also gives them a great avenue to worldwide relevance instead of earning overwhelmingly from Japan. Acquiring all these new users to their platform is a great way to boost their other games as well. Beyond that, assuming these games are successful, which they almost assuredly will be, it also gives them a great sales pitch for licensing more IP to boot.

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.

This is such a great breakdown of the events. I feel like everybody wins with these decisions.

Traditional game fans still get those games. Mobile is happening, with original content suited to the platform.

Everybody wins. Everyone should be happy.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

Playable ads.

Well, it makes sense if they are looking to hook kids who now know how to use a smartphone before they can read who can then grow up and want to play bigger games on Nintendo's consoles.

This could backfire spectacularly, or be the paradigm shift needed to save the Japanese console industry. Even if it backfires though, Nintendo has a foot in the door for surviving when consoles die. Could be a win-win even if it leads to a future I didn't ask for.

 

[TheGreatDirector]

DeNA, Nintendo, and wii U are trending on Twitter right now. This news is only gonna make Nintendo stock wise the rest of today.

 

[Morfeo]

Nobody should be worried about this.

Look at EA. They're making good money on mobile with things like the Sims, NFS and Fifa spin offs. SEGAs championship manager and similar games are doing well on the platform. You haven't seen EA become disinterested in creating Mirrors Edge 2, or Battlefront.. in fact their whole Star Wars deal was probably geared to making them a whole lot of money in the traditional market as well as mobile.

Nintendo are even more sensible and actually protective over their brands and legacy. They've had a year to know that Wii U isn't going to light the world on fire but we're still getting the most beautiful Zelda game to date and whatever else they announce at e3.

This doesn't compromise them, it strengthens them. Reasoned, well researched diversification is sensible. This helps safeguard the Nintendo we know and love.

It threatens them if they make a ton of money of mobile-games. Why make another Zelda-game like that if the money can be better spent on mobile games?

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

denzelboom.gifv indeed, it was the obvious next move but didnt think it would be this soon.

even i heard who "Mobage" is, i think i was hooked on one of their games.

dat pokemon with candy packs and timers though, they are going to sit on piles of cash

 

[Coolwhip]

DeNA, Nintendo, and wii U are trending on Twitter right now. This news is only gonna make Nintendo stock wise the rest of today.

Not trending for me.

 

[thenewjeva]

As long as they're not swarmed with microtransactions, I think they will be fine. I've played a bit of Pokemon Shuffle (which is what I'm expecting Nintendo's first mobile game to be) and the microtransactions aren't too bad. They're not necessary to progress through the game and you get a gem after completing each world to get more tries. As long as I'm not forced to pay for anything to the point where it becomes a nuisance, I think Nintendo's mobile games should be fine.

Though, this is pretty damning for the future of Nintendo handhelds.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

DeNA's investment is already paying dividends!

Predictably, their stock price is down a bit on the news.

trading has closed in Japan, I bet tomorrow it will open at a high

 

[Thunder Monkey]

And let's not kid ourselves, good games will continue to be made whether from Nintendo or someone else.

Naturally.

Really the only thing we can hope is that the "Nintendo flavor" is still there. Something that was definitely lost in Sega's transitory period.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I get what you're saying, but in terms of investment and quantity of high cost content - those ARE mini compared to AAA Nintendo games - relativistically speaking.

Hes just saying people shouldn't expect Metroid Prime, Mario Galaxy or Zelda Wii U scale projects. Which due to the economics of the market - they shouldn't.

Of course not, those aren't the type of games that are leading the revenue charts on mobile.

Just saying that Nintendo really seems to look a this as a another pillar in which to make a bank. They aren't going to create ad based minigames for their console/handheld games, they want to make money of it, while keeping their brands recognizable.

I believe this is what Iwata talks about mobile games helping their other platforms. They'll reach a good portion of the demographic, offering a chance ot recapture part of that audience or at least keep their IP mindshare alive and healthy.

They aren't going to put Mario 64 DS games or ad based app's like some people believe. Expect full fledged games, mobile full fledged games, but full games nonetheless.

 

[stilgar]

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.

I didn't think about that, and it makes way too much sense.

 

[Calamari41]

I remember people posting quotes about him promising there wouldn't be droughts year after year and now this gem, I'm left wondering if people take what Iwata says seriously? He seems indecisive at best, a liar at worst.

It's incredibly simple, actually, especially when you understand the role of CEOs in general and the statements of Dan Adelman about Nintendo's internal culture in his interview a couple of months ago. Iwata was either being overruled by the board back then with regards to developing games for mobile, or he is being overruled right now. Either way, he can't go up and speak out against what the board has decided.

Iwata isn't some entrepreneur with 100% ownership in a Kickstarter he's making promises for. He's the mouthpiece for a public corporation with a market cap in the tens of billions of dollars.

 

[Condom]

It threatens them if they make a ton of money of mobile-games. Why make another Zelda-game like that if the money can be better spent on mobile games?

Because you want to keep having big franchises? Besides they could come with a Nintendo+ subscription service or something.

Just look at Microsoft, they didn't stop with Xbox.

 

[Nirolak]

As long as they're not swarmed with microtransactions, I think they will be fine. I've played a bit of Pokemon Shuffle (which is what I'm expecting Nintendo's first mobile game to be) and the microtransactions aren't too bad. They're not necessary to progress through the game and you get a gem after completing each world to get more tries. As long as I'm not forced to pay for anything to the point where it becomes a nuisance, I think Nintendo's mobile games should be fine.

Though, this is pretty damning for the future of Nintendo handhelds.

If you feel the microtransactions in Pokemon Shuffle are fine I suspect you'd be fine with most modern mobile f2p outside of like Clash of Clans since they've settled around that level of jabbing as optimal.

 

[Vena]

I got some stock in time, but not enough, it seems. Underestimated the market's hunger for Nintendo mobile. So when to sell...? It could go even higher. Damn greed.

When you own tens of thousands of shares, a 25% surge is usually a good selling point. I know I sold.

Thank you Nintendo Mobile. (It will now start dropping back down, and I expect their share price to float around 15-16 for the next few weeks until we hit the earnings reports/investors meeting. Given current performance and the then expect more news on mobile, I'd buy up shares somewhere before then.)

 

[Cyd0nia]

Golfham

 

[Mpl90]

So generally I feel this is a slam dunk for both parties.

On Nintendo's side, they're likely getting some ridiculous royalty like 35-50% of the money made after Apple/Google take their cut.

DeNA is a prominant, long time Japanese mobile vendor that specializes in adapting licensed IPs into successful games that are well tuned for mobile audiences, and have had some good success overseas. While they were most prominent in the feature phone days, they do still have modern successes in Japan, have some remaining success in the West, and with the strength of IPs like this, should be able to make very significant launches that both acquire and monetize well. There are very few companies that have success both domestically and abroad in mobile, so this is notable.

Given that mobile now dominates the casual market, holds great sway over children, and is the dominant form of gaming in many emerging markets (and even Japan for that matter), Nintendo will also get their brands in front of many more people, which makes them much more valuable as licensable IP for merchandizing and transmedia efforts. It keeps Nintendo's IPs relevant as well in world where handhelds are fading and Nintendo's consoles are borderline moribund.

As an even further bonus, the type of games that succeed on mobile have very little overlap with those that work on handhelds, so for the short and mid-term, Nintendo can keep on making handheld games without hugely fearing cannibalization. Obviously there will be some amount of cannibalization, but given how much handheld retraction has already happened, Nintendo might end up gaining as many new converts as they lose to people who are happy to just have a Mario autorunner on their phone. In the short term they could even grow a bit, though I think the long term prospect is still a steady decline. With the NX account system, they can try and encourage this as well by doing things like sending Pokemon to your 3DS/4DS game box by achieving certain things in Puzzles & Pokemon or vice versa, which helps entice people to play both.

On DeNA's side, this is quite possibly the biggest licensing deal in mobile history. Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. This also gives them a great avenue to worldwide relevance instead of earning overwhelmingly from Japan. Acquiring all these new users to their platform is a great way to boost their other games as well. Beyond that, assuming these games are successful, which they almost assuredly will be, it also gives them a great sales pitch for licensing more IP to boot.

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.

Largely agreed. But I feel we shouldn't see Nintendo's hardware business set as "fading away" for sure next gen. I feel the possibilities of getting the "NintendOS" idea right, with different game devices playing the same games, could be very good in terms of expanding their sales numbers overall (handheld + consoles) again. And I say "overall" because, in the aforementioned case of getting that idea right, handhelds and consoles would just be two different ways to experience the same content: they'd be part of the same family, letting the consumers decide how to play them. I think Club Nintendo's successor being developed in conjunction with DeNA is already (in theory) a very good step in this sense, and that will be a "core element" of the new platform.

 

[Watch Da Birdie]

Cautiously optimistic...the biggest fear for me is having to buy a good smartphone to play any games that look interesting haha.

Part of me wonders if this will ultimately amount to nothing worthwhile and by the end of the year things will be more or less the same as it is now, just with a few minor games on the IOS.

 

[marrec]

It threatens them if they make a ton of money of mobile-games. Why make another Zelda-game like that if the money can be better spent on mobile games?

Because "better spent" is a matter of perspective. Mobile gaming, as of now, isn't console gaming and the markets are very different. It wouldn't be financially advisable to halt development on future Zelda games (which are going to make them money) for the possibility that their new smartphone investments are going to replace the money that Zelda (or whatever, Mario) is definitely going to make them.

This isn't a zero sum game for Nintendo. They are partnering with a veteran mobile development platform and investing money in an existing market into which they will infuse their IP. The current revenue streams of the 3DS and home console (Wii U successor) will continue unabated because it's a proven market for them. If, 10 years in the future, the smartphone market collapses into the home console market then it will likely take a form very similar to traditional gaming today and not just be super graphically advanced Flappy Bird clones.

In short, calm down. Zelda NX is on it's way sure as shit.

 

[geordiemp]

Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. .

It really depends, if they release puzzle and dragons with a Mario skin or a full Nintendo game like the recent Kirby, which looks like a good Ipad game.

Also depends on what pricing structure they use in mobile / tablet space....I cant see millions spending say £ 40 on a Kirby IPAD just because of the name.

Question is will they go full on at it with all Nintendo big guns and be aggressive ? And if Nintendo do release such games how would they handle the core fan backlash...

 

[OminousShadow]

So generally I feel this is a slam dunk for both parties.

On Nintendo's side, they're likely getting some ridiculous royalty like 35-50% of the money made after Apple/Google take their cut.

DeNA is a prominant, long time Japanese mobile vendor that specializes in adapting licensed IPs into successful games that are well tuned for mobile audiences, and have had some good success overseas. While they were most prominent in the feature phone days, they do still have modern successes in Japan, have some remaining success in the West, and with the strength of IPs like this, should be able to make very significant launches that both acquire and monetize well. There are very few companies that have success both domestically and abroad in mobile, so this is notable.

Given that mobile now dominates the casual market, holds great sway over children, and is the dominant form of gaming in many emerging markets (and even Japan for that matter), Nintendo will also get their brands in front of many more people, which makes them much more valuable as licensable IP for merchandizing and transmedia efforts. It keeps Nintendo's IPs relevant as well in world where handhelds are fading and Nintendo's consoles are borderline moribund.

As an even further bonus, the type of games that succeed on mobile have very little overlap with those that work on handhelds, so for the short and mid-term, Nintendo can keep on making handheld games without hugely fearing cannibalization. Obviously there will be some amount of cannibalization, but given how much handheld retraction has already happened, Nintendo might end up gaining as many new converts as they lose to people who are happy to just have a Mario autorunner on their phone. In the short term they could even grow a bit, though I think the long term prospect is still a steady decline. With the NX account system, they can try and encourage this as well by doing things like sending Pokemon to your 3DS/4DS game box by achieving certain things in Puzzles & Pokemon or vice versa, which helps entice people to play both.

On DeNA's side, this is quite possibly the biggest licensing deal in mobile history. Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. This also gives them a great avenue to worldwide relevance instead of earning overwhelmingly from Japan. Acquiring all these new users to their platform is a great way to boost their other games as well. Beyond that, assuming these games are successful, which they almost assuredly will be, it also gives them a great sales pitch for licensing more IP to boot.

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.

Well said

 

[commish]

So generally I feel this is a slam dunk for both parties.

On Nintendo's side, they're likely getting some ridiculous royalty like 35-50% of the money made after Apple/Google take their cut.

DeNA is a prominant, long time Japanese mobile vendor that specializes in adapting licensed IPs into successful games that are well tuned for mobile audiences, and have had some good success overseas. While they were most prominent in the feature phone days, they do still have modern successes in Japan, have some remaining success in the West, and with the strength of IPs like this, should be able to make very significant launches that both acquire and monetize well. There are very few companies that have success both domestically and abroad in mobile, so this is notable.

Given that mobile now dominates the casual market, holds great sway over children, and is the dominant form of gaming in many emerging markets (and even Japan for that matter), Nintendo will also get their brands in front of many more people, which makes them much more valuable as licensable IP for merchandizing and transmedia efforts. It keeps Nintendo's IPs relevant as well in world where handhelds are fading and Nintendo's consoles are borderline moribund.

As an even further bonus, the type of games that succeed on mobile have very little overlap with those that work on handhelds, so for the short and mid-term, Nintendo can keep on making handheld games without hugely fearing cannibalization. Obviously there will be some amount of cannibalization, but given how much handheld retraction has already happened, Nintendo might end up gaining as many new converts as they lose to people who are happy to just have a Mario autorunner on their phone. In the short term they could even grow a bit, though I think the long term prospect is still a steady decline. With the NX account system, they can try and encourage this as well by doing things like sending Pokemon to your 3DS/4DS game box by achieving certain things in Puzzles & Pokemon or vice versa, which helps entice people to play both.

On DeNA's side, this is quite possibly the biggest licensing deal in mobile history. Nintendo's brands are extremely well recognized and incredibly popular, and people will flock to them on mobile in droves. Given that DeNA already has monetization down pat, this should result in a windfall profit. This also gives them a great avenue to worldwide relevance instead of earning overwhelmingly from Japan. Acquiring all these new users to their platform is a great way to boost their other games as well. Beyond that, assuming these games are successful, which they almost assuredly will be, it also gives them a great sales pitch for licensing more IP to boot.

For Nintendo, I think the next step is working hard on getting great licensing deals going for TV, cartoons, and film. Disney, Warner (Cartoon Network), or even Viacom (Nickelodeon) would be good partners. This will get their brands in front of even more audiences, especially kids, and help them try to remodel the company into an IP and merchandizing powerhouse, which feels like a much stronger direction for the company. They can obviously keep video game development as one of their strong arms of the business, but they desperately need diversification, and this is the most straightforward and obvious route by far.

I think there is a lot of overlap with mobile players and handheld gamers in general. People aren't only playing mobile games "on the go"; they play all the time, home, work, etc, often instead of on their 3DS. I think this deal spells the beginning of the end of Nintendo in the handheld market, at least as we know it.

And we will see how Nintendo's market responds to these games. DeNA is known for their aggressive freemium titles with lots of IAP, and while *I* have no problem with that business model, I know many folks do. Can you imagine, for example, a freemium Mario game that costs $5 to get a new character, and there's 200 characters to collect? I think Nintendo needs to be careful as to how they monetize their mobile games.

 

[SuperCambot]

Sounds like the surgery Iwata had was actually to remove that stick up his ass.

 

[Orniletter]

Really hope they'll do it right.

The whole thing feels a bit like playing with fire, but....as hard as it is to admit for every Nintendo fan....they have to change something.

Children have been their bread and butter since the company resurrected the entire industry (in NA) in 1985, smartphones have been the most dangerous threat they have ever faced. Even worse than Sony and Microsoft combined.

I hope that their bold move pays dividends and they keep producing the type of software they do now on the 3DS and WiiU.

 

[ninjabat]

Price point will be interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if they release some free to play games with micro transactions.

 

[jett]

It was inevitable, the pressure from stockholders to go mobile must've been enormous.

 

[Somnid]

It threatens them if they make a ton of money of mobile-games. Why make another Zelda-game like that if the money can be better spent on mobile games?

It's highly unlikely they will get more money from this then they do from their own systems and licensing deal and in fact the point is to draw more people into those systems. Maybe very long term there might be a turning point but as Iwata points out 3DS software has been killing it lately and what sells on 3DS is very different than what sells on mobile so there's no reason they would abandon the market anymore than EA suddenly drops all AAA development to focus solely on mobile.

As long as they're not swarmed with microtransactions, I think they will be fine. I've played a bit of Pokemon Shuffle (which is what I'm expecting Nintendo's first mobile game to be) and the microtransactions aren't too bad. They're not necessary to progress through the game and you get a gem after completing each world to get more tries. As long as I'm not forced to pay for anything to the point where it becomes a nuisance, I think Nintendo's mobile games should be fine.

Though, this is pretty damning for the future of Nintendo handhelds.

Iwata confirmed that they do not want to make games with excessive IAP because it undermines consumer confidence in their brand. As for handhelds, see above. These aren't going to be the same games, just the same brands. You won't be playing Codename STEAM on mobile because it's not the right fit from a device standpoint and its clear that a large number of people especially those currently buying handhelds recognize that.

 

[vareon]

I'm pleasantly surprised at how "clean" this deal is. No rumors, no reports, no "talks", nothing. Just a press conference announcement and BAM.

 

[Porcile]

Nintendo's stock went up fairly dramatically last year(?) based purely on mobile development speculation, but it didn't pan out as investors expected. Now that they've actually announced it for real, it's going to rise and rise.

 

[commish]

It was inevitable, the pressure from stockholders to go mobile must've been enormous.

Next thing you know, Nintendo will introduce a proper online gaming system where your games are tied to your account!