GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
So, what's your prediction for the gap between the PS4 and the XB1? I think over 100k easily but I'm stupid, as you clearly showed.
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March 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
So, what's your prediction for the gap between the PS4 and the XB1? I think over 100k easily but I'm stupid, as you clearly showed.
Welfare
Member
You're not stupid!
I'm also expecting a >100k gap. Anything could happen though, that Gamestop deal is really attractive.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Why are people so convinced that PS4 will have an over 100k gap!? Those kinds of margins are usually far a few between these days, seeing PS4 in that position i don't think is not very likely.
I also don't understand why PS4 is consistently getting 300k+ this year when last year was lucky if they could get that amount even in Bloodborne month
I also don't understand why PS4 is consistently getting 300k+ this year when last year was lucky if they could get that amount even in Bloodborne month
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Momentum. Whilst RAC, No Man's Sky, Alienation and UC4 didn't release last month, people knew they were releasing soon.
Welfare
Member
It sold 342k in February 2015 and 340k in March.
Also so far this year the gaps have been ~100k. 98k in January and 157k in February. It could be slightly below 100k like in January, but that's if the price cut had a massive impact on XB1 sales.
ethomaz
Banned
There's also the general feeling that (although it was pretty much a meme) the PS4 is finally hitting its stride in terms of exclusives being released tbis year.
Every single month there is/ will be one or more pretty high profile console exclusive it seems.
Gravity Rush R
The Witness
Street Fighter V
Firewatch
MLB 16
Ratchet & Clank
Alienation
Shadow of the Beast
Uncharted 4
No Man's Sky
Star Ocean 5
Expectected 2016:Nioh, Abzu, Dreams, The Last Guardian, The Tomorrow Children, Gran Turismo Sports, Horizon...
Of course the $50 price drop and upcoming PSVR do not hurt it either.
Welfare
Member
Fixed that list to fit the "pretty high profile" restriction.
slavesnyder
Member
Sure. The bible belt might be 10% of the US population. Nevertheless this sample is not 100% accurate for the whole US in a lot of themes.
So chose you questions wisely and be cautious with the data you get.
VanCityGamer
Member
Ratchet & Clank 100% deserves to be on that list too. Can't believe you don't think it belongs on it.
spatenfloot
Member
That would apply if Amazon was a regional retailer, but it is nationwide. It is a very representative sample. Obviously, the biggest factor that throws the results off is when there is a big deal at one specific retailer like Gamestop or Best Buy.
1) Cause last month The gap was well Over that, and even in January which is a slow month The gap was almost 100K
2) This is because Feb / Mar Are strong months, indeed even last year was well Over 300K. See January, This is a better month for see the PS4 basis.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Ratchet & Clank seems pretty high profile right now...
freefornow
Member
Are you game for a April NPD prediction? Top 10?
It will sell better than QB
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Yes it will definitely make the Top 10. I generally stay away from making predictions, but that's a pretty safe call.
May i say that there will be a meltdowns if this happens.
Swass
Member
Doubt it as R&C has a budget price and that will likely be the belief as to why it happened if it happens.
There was nothing to fix, as everything on the list has been given a fair amount of coverage in both medias and E3 conference.
Unless you think neither Below, Ori, Killer Instinct, Recore, Cuphead or even Sea of Thieves meet the criteria on XB1?
I guess it's either AAA-itis or... Double standards.
Heck, Star Ocean is a huge name in JRPGs internationally (even if the title is sorta flopping in Japan).
I agree but I also think The Witness and Firewatch deserve a mention as both were critically acclaimed.
Anyway, the point is, there always seem to be something new and exciting for PS4 just around the corner and no doubt, that spills over to the general public.
I think is gonna be super Close.
I don't think so. Long running franchise + cheaper price + movie that should help the game too.
There shouldn't be, established IP on the system with a substantially larger marketshare plus a strong association with that platform. Add in the hype of the movie and I'll be shocked if it doesn't outsell QUantum Break.
By every right it should (and it will)
True, memory lapsed for these, will add them.
slavesnyder
Member
Absolutely. It was an example, maybe a bad one. Internet shops are nationwide, but promos can cause distortions like geographical/ethnical/social differences in polls.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I was more reserved with my R&C > QB before but I'm going all in now! It will happen! I have a feeling both will do surprisingly well though.
Hmm, there seems to be a divide on the matter. Some think QB should definitely do better while others think the opposite.
Hmm, there seems to be a divide on the matter. Some think QB should definitely do better while others think the opposite.
Not in the US.
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction (October 30, 2007, though released in most retailers early) -- 74,500 units
I found nothing about A Crack in Time but it failed to enter the top 20 in October 2009 ( so is <66k ).
R&C was not a huge seller in PS3 era even with very good reviews. We'll se how this reboot/remake/sequel will do.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Oh thats gonna be rich...
slavesnyder
Member
Won't meltdown be bigger if it doesn't?
Why? Unlike the other scenario, there is no precedence.
Didn't it sell 800-900k in its first NPD? I think it's extremely likely Uncharted 4 will beat that
Uncharted has never broken a million on debut month. Should probably think about that benchmark first before even just trying to touch Halo.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, my prediction is ~800K for UC4.
Isn't it a sales gap of >1 million? >1.2 million? That's quite a bit bigger.
Both sides have valid defenses to prep themselves:
Xbox fanboys: 4 days vs. 21 days; larger user base; reasons
Playstation fanboys: Well, duh Halo was supposed to do better; It's America, they like their shooters over games like UC; reasons
I remember when my prediction for Halo 5 were 900k. Others told me that's too low. Hahahaha.
Nevertheless, Halo 5 didn't set US on fire during November and December ( out of top 10 ) and yearly.
halo used to launch around 3 million during its heyday so uncharted is nowhere close and so the expectations shouldn't be there. if uncharted 4 beats uncharted 3 that in itself is a victory and it is likely it would easily do that. beating halo 5 launch should be fun just to see the reactions. i personally have predicted it will beat halo 5 launch npd at retail
CosmicQueso
Member
Since both QB and R&C are single player, linear, story driven experiences of around 10 hours or so, I can't see either selling particularly well.
I'd give the unit edge to R&C, the dollar edge to QB. Both also have a likelihood of having higher digital share than normal, R&C with the price point and QB with the free W10 code with digital Xbox One purchase.
Also, sensible chuckle on Halo still being considered a franchise worthy of sales level aspiration. It's not the EDIT:2012's anymore.
Given its lack of significant marketing support, do you believe Sony thought it belonged on the list pre launch?
I'd give the unit edge to R&C, the dollar edge to QB. Both also have a likelihood of having higher digital share than normal, R&C with the price point and QB with the free W10 code with digital Xbox One purchase.
Also, sensible chuckle on Halo still being considered a franchise worthy of sales level aspiration. It's not the EDIT:2012's anymore.
Given its lack of significant marketing support, do you believe Sony thought it belonged on the list pre launch?
I still think it was too low for a prediction. It just wasn't wrong. (~_^)
Please show me where I (or anyone in this discussion) said it did.
Oh, right, you can't.
Keep fighting that "good" fight.
Definitely, Halo 5 sales was shockingly low.
Market share is usually described as a percentage, not an absolute numbers gap. There's a difference between 1M vs 2M compared to 11M vs 12M. Same gap, but one is more significant than the other.