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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT|

Warablo

Member
Didn't Bungie literally say this? That one of their deal breakers would be exclusivity?
Yep, if they can't release on PC, they didn't want to get bought.

The fact remains, we have no idea what Bungie means by multiplatform. I highly doubt any new IP from them will release on Xbox consoles. I think it will be Playstation and PC only.
 
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fallingdove

Member
Kind of a redundant question. Massive comnpanies always aquire smaller ones. if one company doesnt buy another does. None of them are saying to themselves "well actually...we might be encouraging consolidation...so lets not buy it even if its gonna make us more money" ... they just dont think like that.
A redundant question? Just because “big companies gonna be big companies” doesn’t mean I have to agree with it, or favor one big company over another.

My stance is I don’t want any big company buying up ABK because these moves aren’t beneficial to gaming loving gamers. (So long as you aren’t simply a fanboy looking to win list war arguments on Twitter.)
 
Not likely. Sony increasing their install base by 100% in a single year doesn't really track with the estimation you're using to low ball Xbox. PS5's 45m to Xbox's 27 million would be a realistic estimate.

I'm not really sure what you're responding to here, but it's not me. Sony losing Call of Duty's marketing and early access deal doesn't really diminish that Call of Duty will be sold on PlayStation and will continue to do so no matter what happens with this deal. ABK signing a deal with Xbox instead helps Xbox, without massively impacting their revenue - depending on the deal with Microsoft, of course. People will buy Call of Duty on whatever platform they want. What Xbox's deal would do is diminish PlayStation's ability to use COD to prop up PSN through advertising and marketing. The long-tail impact of that is measured in the billions, which is why Ryan's not happy with any deal Microsoft might offer.

It's the other way around, according to Sony. PlayStation goes out of business without Call of Duty. Sony would have no choice but to give ABK whatever it demands, or there simply won't be a PlayStation to disagree.

PlayStation sales have been entirely slowed by supply restraints. Rumors suggest Sony are preparing as many as 30 million PS5s for distribution for the fiscal year. With normal expectations, it could be assumed Sony could sell at least 20 million units with no supply shortages, they've done so at many times in the past. Going forward however and considering pent-up demand and increased supply, they could very well sell in excess of that. To suggest that they're more likely to sell 45 million, an increase of 15 million is patently ridiculous, particularly with big titles exclusive and otherwise pushing sales, Hogwarts Legacy, Final Fantasy 16, Spider-Man 2. All exclusive to PS5 or effectively exclusive to PS5 (in the case of Hogwarts due to Xbox availability).

Xbox on the other hand continues to experience supply issues, is down YOY globally, and has no significant titles for the first 9 months of the year. It's largest title for the year is not exclusive to consoles. Xbox is likely to be DOWN for the year meaning less than 9 million units sold for the year.

You suggested that Activision will want to explore a deal with Microsoft if Sony kills this merger and their deal expires next year. That is a possibility, but a costly one.

With independent competition, Activision has little leverage over Sony to foreclose Call of Duty. Foreclosure of Call of Duty while painful to Sony would be staggering to an independent Activision.

You're really struggling to process some pretty simple themes here.
 
A redundant question? Just because “big companies gonna be big companies” doesn’t mean I have to agree with it, or favor one big company over another.

My stance is I don’t want any big company buying up ABK because these moves aren’t beneficial to gaming loving gamers. (So long as you aren’t simply a fanboy looking to win list war arguments on Twitter.)

I do think we have to recognize the growing consolidation in the market and there are more beneficial outcomes than purely negative outcomes.

Ultimately, I agree with you though. We end up with less choice and less variety in gaming as a result of this consolidation. Look at Square Enix as a perfect example of that. Has the Enix side of the company made any games that weren't Dragon Quest or Star Ocean since the advent of the merger? Maybe a handful?
 

laynelane

Member
Sony for the last 12 months: "We want this deal to be blocked by regulators."

Lulu: "Sony wants to block the deal."

Everyone:

AwD7F8e.png

Out of all the revelations to come out of this whole ordeal, this one was rather anti-climatic since anyone paying attention could already see Sony's preferred outcome. I wonder what motivated Lulu to tweet that. Maybe frustration? Or perhaps more PR spin? Either way, it just adds more to the circus-like feel of this whole thing.
 
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Poltz

Member
I'm guessing "Chose not to" and "Collapsed instal base made renewal price of marketing deal unfeasible." Are one and the same here.

We're literally in a thread where Microsoft offered double the asking price for Activision, to buy COD outright. Surely you don't believe that XBOX, after lauding COD's marketing deal for close to a decade, simply turned around and said

"Nah."

When it came time to renew it that marketing deal, right?
Do you think it’s a coincidence that Xbox lost the COD and FIFA marketing deals in 2014? Was the Xbox One install base collapsed then?
 
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Poltz

Member
https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2013/12/12/xbox-one-november-npd-announcement/amp/

Xbox has seen record-breaking sales with the recent announcement of Xbox One selling more than 2 million units through to consumers worldwide since its launch. November NPD Group figures released today revealed 909,132 Xbox One units were sold in the U.S. in the console’s first nine days, making it the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S. Xbox One sales averaged a volume of more than 101,000 consoles per day, significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.

  • During the month of November, Xbox One sold nearly three times as many units compared to Xbox 360 in the U.S. during its November 2005 launch (Source: NPD Group).
The Xbox One was flying out the gates, but people want to rewrite history.
 
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Elios83

Member
Isn't this what Sony did in 94? Having a financial strength from the company as a whole, selling cheaper than its competitors, buying out a big publisher at the time (Psygnosis) and moneyhatting exclusives left and right because they were the biggest one by large to afford that?

First of all let's say that "whataboutism" isn't going to change what Microsoft is trying to do here and it's not going to make them look better.

But even if you want to go there, no Sony has never done what Microsoft is trying to do here.
It wasn't even possible, not only the company never had such financial strength but the company's culture simply couldn't allow it.
Sony like other Japanese companies back in the 90s and early 00s was effectively organized into silos where each division was just doing their own interests and was basically in competition with the others. It was common that certain divisions made deals with other companies that were the main rivals of other divisions.

This mentality costed them to miss the whole digital revolution and created tons of issues that only Kaz Hirai was able to fix but that's relatively recent history.

Also Psygnosis...lol...do you think they defeated Nintendo and Sega thanks to Wipeout and Lemmings?? :messenger_tears_of_joy:

What Sony did was to create a really good product while their competitors were busy sabotaging themselves with idiotic decisions.
Nintendo with their cartridges, burning bridges with all third parties because they thought they were superior and didn't need them (they banned Squaresoft altogether from their products because of the FF7 betrayal....just think of the stupidity), Sega with their USA and Japanese divisions fighting between themselves and creating shitty hardware with the Saturn.
Sony was just at the right place at the right time, they took advantage of the situation and they made some good business decisions like betting on Europe with localizations. At that point they had all the third party support in the bag.

You're saying that Microsoft is doing here what Sony has done but it's completely wrong, the only moment Microsoft did what Sony has done is during the beginning of the Xbox 360 generation and guess what...it was the peak of their success they're failing to replicate with their current bullshit.
 
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ZehDon

Member
PlayStation sales have been entirely slowed by supply restraints. Rumors suggest Sony are preparing as many as 30 million PS5s for distribution for the fiscal year. With normal expectations, it could be assumed Sony could sell at least 20 million units with no supply shortages, they've done so at many times in the past...
First 30 million, now 20 million. A 10 million drop because I offered a simple counter estimate - predicating entirely sustained demand - tells me your numbers for Sony are grossly overestimated and you know it.
Xbox on the other hand continues to experience supply issues, is down YOY globally, and has no significant titles for the first 9 months of the year. It's largest title for the year is not exclusive to consoles. Xbox is likely to be DOWN for the year meaning less than 9 million units sold for the year.
Less than 9 million is entirely plausible, but I'd argue not by much. Supply issues are expected to clear up in H2. Xbox have several titles confirmed to be launching this year, as well as some speculated titles in H2, lining up nicely with their supply chain clearing up. They're not console exclusives, but technically, Microsoft have sold 18.5m consoles thus far with zero console exclusives, so I'm not sure why that would change anything moving forward.
...That is a possibility, but a costly one.
Microsoft will have USD$67b dollars ear marked for gaming investments if the deal doesn't clear. The cost will ultimately depend on the deal, won't it?
With independent competition, Activision has little leverage over Sony to foreclose Call of Duty. Foreclosure of Call of Duty while painful to Sony would be staggering to an independent Activision.
No one's suggesting Call of Duty will be withheld from Sony, except Sony. And now you. I said Activision has Sony's public statements as leverage in any negotiations moving forward - and ABK will use that leverage. If Call of Duty is literally the only thing keeping PlayStation is business - which we all know it isn't - then PlayStation exists because ABK allows it to. They have complete control. Of course, Sony's idea is entirely ridiculous - as every single person, including you, knows. But if they're trying to convince regulators the world over that Call of Duty is PlayStation, ABK will make them pay for it.
You're really struggling to process some pretty simple themes here.
The only theme I struggle to understand is why Sony's blind proponents all persist with gaslighting.
 
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Astray

Member
First 30 million, now 20 million. A 10 million drop because I offered a simple counter estimate - predicating entirely sustained demand - tells me your numbers for Sony are grossly overestimated and you know it.
20 million is the baseline estimate, he's adding an estimated 10m on top due to pent-up demand (basically all the people who weren't able to find one during chip shortages can now do it).

You have no clue what you are talking about. Drop your spoon and stop digging.
 

Yoboman

Member
Isn't this what Sony did in 94? Having a financial strength from the company as a whole, selling cheaper than its competitors, buying out a big publisher at the time (Psygnosis) and moneyhatting exclusives left and right because they were the biggest one by large to afford that?
All of that discounts how many mistakes Sega and Nintendo made of their own. Eg rushing out the Saturn launch, pricing Saturn at $400, Nintendo sticking with cartridges so they could monopolise the production process and not decreasing royalties. Nintendo infamously backstabbing Sony at CES. Nintendo being 2 years late to the gen. Nintendo essentially telling Square to never come back after they decided to make a PS game.

And yeah Sony came in with a financial advantage. But there were hundreds of companies that could have made an entrance into gaming at that era and competed how Sony did. The moves MS are making buying a company for $70 billion dollars is something only a handful of companies can do in 2023
 

Pelta88

Member
Do you think it’s a coincidence that Xbox lost the COD and FIFA marketing deals in 2014? Was the Xbox One install base collapsed then?

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2013/12/12/xbox-one-november-npd-announcement/amp/

Xbox has seen record-breaking sales with the recent announcement of Xbox One selling more than 2 million units through to consumers worldwide since its launch. November NPD Group figures released today revealed 909,132 Xbox One units were sold in the U.S. in the console’s first nine days, making it the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S. Xbox One sales averaged a volume of more than 101,000 consoles per day, significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.

  • During the month of November, Xbox One sold nearly three times as many units compared to Xbox 360 in the U.S. during its November 2005 launch (Source: NPD Group).
The Xbox One was flying out the gates, but people want to rewrite history.

umm-speechless.gif


Who is going to tell him?
 
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ZehDon

Member
20 million is the baseline estimate, he's adding an estimated 10m on top due to pent-up demand (basically all the people who weren't able to find one during chip shortages can now do it).
Sony's prior fiscal year forecast of 18m was a bullish estimate that they met with a damn strong showing. Pushing 20m before March 2024 seems entirely feasible. But 166% increase YOY due to pent-up demand? You'll need to explain that one.
You have no clue what you are talking about. Drop your spoon and stop digging.
Cute, but not quite gaslighting.
This is an assumption, $67b for ABK doesn’t mean that much is available if the deal fails. ABK is a unique boon for Microsoft as a whole.
That's fair - it's absolutely an assumption. If the deal is blocked, and tribunal efforts fail, Microsoft will definitely need to re-group. Their aggressive investment strategy for Xbox formed a component of their foundational steps into the metaverse. That's not Xbox specific, that's a long-term strategic goal for Microsoft as a whole. I don't see that strategy changing because of ABK, so, I'd expect, at least, a sizeable chunk of the ear-marked cash diverted into other gaming investments to allow Xbox to meet Microsoft's long-term plans for it. Is that alternative large-scale acquisitions? I really don't know.
 
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Astray

Member
Sony's prior fiscal year forecast of 18m was a bullish estimate that they met with a damn strong showing. Pushing 20m before March 2024 seems entirely feasible. But 166% increase YOY due to pent-up demand? You'll need to explain that one.
The pent up demand is fucking massive, in some market, they are doing like %300 increases vs same months last year.

Hogwarts Legacy doing insane numbers despite currently being current gen is another hint that adoption is really speeding up.
 

Poltz

Member
Sony's prior fiscal year forecast of 18m was a bullish estimate that they met with a damn strong showing. Pushing 20m before March 2024 seems entirely feasible. But 166% increase YOY due to pent-up demand? You'll need to explain that one.

Cute, but not quite gaslighting.

That's fair - it's absolutely an assumption. If the deal is blocked, and tribunal efforts fail, Microsoft will definitely need to re-group. Their aggressive investment strategy for Xbox formed a component of their foundational steps into the metaverse. That's not Xbox specific, that's a long-term strategic goal for Microsoft as a whole. I don't see that strategy changing because of ABK, so, I'd expect, at least, a sizeable chunk of the ear-marked cash diverted into other gaming investments to allow Xbox to meet Microsoft's long-term plans for it. Is that alternative large-scale acquisitions? I really don't know.
Considering the investments into AI at Microsoft at the moment I wouldn’t be shocked to see more. Timed exclusives and gamepass deals aren’t as appealing as owning in perpetuity to shareholders I imagine.
 

Poltz

Member
The pent up demand is fucking massive, in some market, they are doing like %300 increases vs same months last year.

Hogwarts Legacy doing insane numbers despite currently being current gen is another hint that adoption is really speeding up.
Mainland Europe and Latin America were starved of PS5 supply. In Spain retailers were doing €800 bundles.
 

ZehDon

Member
The pent up demand is fucking massive, in some market, they are doing like %300 increases vs same months last year.
You're expecting a valley/peak comparison in "some market" to indicate a sustainable level of global demand for at least the next six months at a minimum?
Hogwarts Legacy doing insane numbers despite currently being current gen is another hint that adoption is really speeding up.
... a multiplatform game selling well, being one of the biggest games on steam before it even released, is proof that console adoption is speeding up? I actually think you're right - in that hardware sales are accelerating due to better supply - but I don't think this game alone is the one that proves it.
Considering the investments into AI at Microsoft at the moment I wouldn’t be shocked to see more. Timed exclusives and gamepass deals aren’t as appealing as owning in perpetuity to shareholders I imagine.
That goes without saying, however, forgoing all further investment into their Xbox platform, when they were just prepared to drop USD$70b into it, and effectively excluding it from their metaverse strategy entirely wouldn't be terribly appealing either. But, as I said - it's an assumption. Microsoft may see their USD$3b sunk cost as damage enough.
 

Topher

Member
I'm not so sure.
If a part of the offer to Sony is that they will give them COD on PS+ day and date for market rate of 200 million, but Sony doesn't sign the contract, does MS still have to put COD on PS+ if Sony is unwilling to pay? Or will Sony have to pay them 200 mill ,Wether they want to or not, because that's what MS put towards the CMA as a remedy and the CMA accepted it?
It's not that simple.

Sony can refuse to put COD on PS+ and still sell the game at regular price. It is just that simple.
 

Poltz

Member
You're expecting a valley/peak comparison in "some market" to indicate a sustainable level of global demand for at least the next six months at a minimum?

... a multiplatform game selling well, being one of the biggest games on steam before it even released, is proof that console adoption is speeding up? I actually think you're right - in that hardware sales are accelerating due to better supply - but I don't think this game alone is the one that proves it.

That goes without saying, however, forgoing all further investment into their Xbox platform, when they were just prepared to drop USD$70b into it, and effectively excluding it from their metaverse strategy entirely wouldn't be terribly appealing either. But, as I said - it's an assumption. Microsoft may see their USD$3b sunk cost as damage enough.
They will still invest in Xbox though just maybe not to the same massive scale. Buying Asobo, Creative Affinity and IOI for example is still investment.
 
Let's not forget CODs last E3 marketing caught them collateral damage with Xbox being a meme disaster



Activision were pissed and went running straight to sony. They also made marketing deal with Sony for destiny too. It's always been about money for them, which is exactly why they will still go with Sony even if the deal gets blocked. Everyone will carry on as usual and act like nothing ever happened. It's business. Would you market your game on the big platform or the small one?
 
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poppabk

Member
I do think we have to recognize the growing consolidation in the market and there are more beneficial outcomes than purely negative outcomes.

Ultimately, I agree with you though. We end up with less choice and less variety in gaming as a result of this consolidation. Look at Square Enix as a perfect example of that. Has the Enix side of the company made any games that weren't Dragon Quest or Star Ocean since the advent of the merger? Maybe a handful?
That's a good argument for the opposite though. Companies driven purely by profit from game sales have increasingly become focused on a smaller and smaller range of IP. Look at Activision that have become basically CoD the company. They have a lot of IP that could be profitable it just wouldn't be as profitable as having that team work on CoD. MS would have a much greater incentive to expand the range of games. Might not be beneficial to CoD but to gamers in general it would.
 
First 30 million, now 20 million. A 10 million drop because I offered a simple counter estimate - predicating entirely sustained demand - tells me your numbers for Sony are grossly overestimated and you know it.

Less than 9 million is entirely plausible, but I'd argue not by much. Supply issues are expected to clear up in H2. Xbox have several titles confirmed to be launching this year, as well as some speculated titles in H2, lining up nicely with their supply chain clearing up. They're not console exclusives, but technically, Microsoft have sold 18.5m consoles thus far with zero console exclusives, so I'm not sure why that would change anything moving forward.

Microsoft will have USD$67b dollars ear marked for gaming investments if the deal doesn't clear. The cost will ultimately depend on the deal, won't it?

No one's suggesting Call of Duty will be withheld from Sony, except Sony. And now you. I said Activision has Sony's public statements as leverage in any negotiations moving forward - and ABK will use that leverage. If Call of Duty is literally the only thing keeping PlayStation is business - which we all know it isn't - then PlayStation exists because ABK allows it to. They have complete control. Of course, Sony's idea is entirely ridiculous - as every single person, including you, knows. But if they're trying to convince regulators the world over that Call of Duty is PlayStation, ABK will make them pay for it.

The only theme I struggle to understand is why Sony's blind proponents all persist with gaslighting.

I didn't move off of 30. I simply said your guess of 15 million was absurd because an a given year they'd be expected to sell at least 20 million. Reading comprehension is poor here.

Supply issues clearing up by H2 doesn't fix them being down YOY for H1. You're exactly right. Nothing has changed. Is Starfield especially larger than Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon and Flight Simulator? Gamepass still impacts Starfield like it did these games. The key here is H1 supply issues and diminishing demand, particularly for the XSS.

Time to put to bed that Microsoft just has 70 billion dollars available. The board approved one deal, it doesn't mean that money can be used for anything else. The parameters for that deal are specific. First, this was approved when money was cheap. It was also approved before really poor financial reports from Xbox. It was also specifically for Call of Duty as a title that could specifically change things for Microsoft across multiple platforms.

Activision has less leverage over Sony today than they did a year ago. Again, you need to look at the userbase Sony has and take that into account. It's clear that you don't know how anything works. Ask yourself does Sony need more exclusive titles with a smaller userbase or a larger userbase? Do they need more exclusive content with a smaller userbase or a larger userbase? The damage to Xbox has been done. Sony is almost certainly going to shift away from exclusivity deals for the rest of the generation with not nearly as many titles being exclusive. They no longer need it. How many big 3rd party exclusives came out on PS4 in 2019 and 2020?

Again you are certainly struggling.
 

vj27

Member
Activision were pissed and went running straight to sony. They also made marketing deal with Sony for destiny too. It's always been about money for them, which is exactly why they will still go with Sony even if the deal gets blocked. Everyone will carry on as usual and act like nothing ever happened. It's business. Would you market your game on the big platform or the small one?
Probably the one that gave you 70 billion dollars…
 
All of that discounts how many mistakes Sega and Nintendo made of their own. Eg rushing out the Saturn launch, pricing Saturn at $400, Nintendo sticking with cartridges so they could monopolise the production process and not decreasing royalties. Nintendo infamously backstabbing Sony at CES. Nintendo being 2 years late to the gen. Nintendo essentially telling Square to never come back after they decided to make a PS game.

And yeah Sony came in with a financial advantage. But there were hundreds of companies that could have made an entrance into gaming at that era and competed how Sony did. The moves MS are making buying a company for $70 billion dollars is something only a handful of companies can do in 2023

Companies always make mistakes and decisions that could be perceived as mistakes.

If the Saturn coming out early gave them an advantage as they thought it did, it would have been seen as a good move.

Many people back in the day on gamefaqs would have told you that cartridges were better than cds and that the load times on PS and saturn were deal breakers.

Sony wanted to devour Nintendo from within itself. Obviously, Sony turned into market leader, but had they gone ahead with Sony who knows what would have happened to them.

Sony made their own share of mistakes as well.

I do think quality of hardware and overall strategy makes a big difference.
 
I'm not so sure.
If a part of the offer to Sony is that they will give them COD on PS+ day and date for market rate of 200 million, but Sony doesn't sign the contract, does MS still have to put COD on PS+ if Sony is unwilling to pay? Or will Sony have to pay them 200 mill ,Wether they want to or not, because that's what MS put towards the CMA as a remedy and the CMA accepted it?
It's not that simple.
again. MS will be the one losing DA money.
Sony has the biggest store/market share/install base.

in this fantasy of yours. sony will be force to block/disincentive MS from publishing on THEIR store.

sony will not HAVE to pay shit. in your scenario; Sony has the upper hand, not MS.

is pretty simple.
 

ZehDon

Member
I didn't move off of 30. I simply said your guess of 15 million was absurd because an a given year they'd be expected to sell at least 20 million.
Missing the point is becoming your MO. Lowballing one means you need to lowball the other for a fair comparison. If you believe Sony's minimum is 20m - fair, given their 18m for the current fiscal year - then that's the fair estimate to compare to Xbox's lowball. Unless you're not interested in being fair - on which I gave you the benefit of the doubt.
Supply issues clearing up by H2 doesn't fix them being down YOY for H1.
Depends on the decrease for H1 and their improvement in H2, doesn't it?
Is Starfield especially larger than Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon and Flight Simulator? Gamepass still impacts Starfield like it did these games. The key here is H1 supply issues and diminishing demand, particularly for the XSS.
Given Bethesda's history, yes, Starfield is significantly larger than all of those games. Game Pass impacts the platform - which is it's point: buy an Xbox for Game Pass. And diminishing demand is just you now throwing shit at a wall: if they have supply issues, how would you meaningfully differentiate? A 6% Q4 YOY decrease?
Time to put to bed that Microsoft just has 70 billion dollars available. The board approved one deal, it doesn't mean that money can be used for anything else. The parameters for that deal are specific. First, this was approved when money was cheap. It was also approved before really poor financial reports from Xbox. It was also specifically for Call of Duty as a title that could specifically change things for Microsoft across multiple platforms.
Cool, except for the part about Microsoft's long term strategic metaverse goals, of which ABK was a component, and Microsoft having close to double that cash value at hand. I see it pretty likely that Microsoft's plan for Xbox's place in its metaverse strategy continues - meaning it'll invest at least some of that money elsewhere. Nothing to date suggests otherwise.
Activision has less leverage over Sony today than they did a year ago...
You're largely just repeating yourself. So, I'll paint your corner for you: according to Sony, PlayStation exists because ABK allows them to. If you think Sony is wrong here, you must believe they have no regulatory grounds to block the deal. Alternatively, if you believe Sony are correct here, then you believe you're wrong. I'll let you pick your poison.

... Reading comprehension is poor here...
... It's clear that you don't know how anything works...
... Again you are certainly struggling...
It's getting almost silly now.
 

Mr Reasonable

Completely Unreasonable
Sony listing instances where Microsoft has been taken to court or fined for making pre-purchase promises... And then breaking said promises... Should give everyone pause for thought.

HzmXFYd.jpg

My god.

You step back and look at it.

And you realise this is 639 pages of the same thing.

I can't believe I just realised.
 
SIE showed their true colors rejecting the 10-year COD deal, they want to block the acquisition, period.

Their true colors...Ooooooh, mommy, I'm scared! Of course they want to block the deal! That would be their first choice. But the real aim is to have as many concessions as they can possibly get.
 
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