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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT|

Brucey

Member
I didn't move off of 30. I simply said your guess of 15 million was absurd because an a given year they'd be expected to sell at least 20 million. Reading comprehension is poor here.

Supply issues clearing up by H2 doesn't fix them being down YOY for H1. You're exactly right. Nothing has changed. Is Starfield especially larger than Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon and Flight Simulator? Gamepass still impacts Starfield like it did these games. The key here is H1 supply issues and diminishing demand, particularly for the XSS.

Time to put to bed that Microsoft just has 70 billion dollars available. The board approved one deal, it doesn't mean that money can be used for anything else. The parameters for that deal are specific. First, this was approved when money was cheap. It was also approved before really poor financial reports from Xbox. It was also specifically for Call of Duty as a title that could specifically change things for Microsoft across multiple platforms.

Activision has less leverage over Sony today than they did a year ago. Again, you need to look at the userbase Sony has and take that into account. It's clear that you don't know how anything works. Ask yourself does Sony need more exclusive titles with a smaller userbase or a larger userbase? Do they need more exclusive content with a smaller userbase or a larger userbase? The damage to Xbox has been done. Sony is almost certainly going to shift away from exclusivity deals for the rest of the generation with not nearly as many titles being exclusive. They no longer need it. How many big 3rd party exclusives came out on PS4 in 2019 and 2020?

Again you are certainly struggling.
I could see PS5 selling 30 million units per year for the next three years. Unprecedented numbers based on the past but I think the thirst is real. Throw in a price cut in a year or two and certainly possible.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
So you're ok with Google Amazon or tencent buying them instead?
Who even said this strawman FUD?

Why does it have to be an either/or thing? I am against any of these massive companies using their resources for wholesale consolidation.
Curb Your Enthusiasm Bingo GIF by Jason Clarke
 
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RickMasters

Member
A redundant question? Just because “big companies gonna be big companies” doesn’t mean I have to agree with it, or favor one big company over another.

My stance is I don’t want any big company buying up ABK because these moves aren’t beneficial to gaming loving gamers. (So long as you aren’t simply a fanboy looking to win list war arguments on Twitter.)
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think you are wrong for feeling that way . I’m just saying some things simply are the way they are when it comes to business because money always does the real talking among big companies.
 

RickMasters

Member
Who even said this strawman FUD?
I think it’s been an assumption that’s been made because who else could afford ABK…… but then this thread has been riddled with assumptions from the start.people attempting to fill in the blanks for what alternatives they would prefer. I never realised non casuals and non cod fans cared this much about this.

But it’s funny because I remember when the Xbox 360 was teased for being the ‘COD box’ 🤷🏾‍♂️😅 and now we have Sony saying they can’t get by without that COD revenue. Not bad for the most popular game that people love to hate on every year.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I think it’s been an assumption that’s been made because who else could afford ABK…… but then this thread has been riddled with assumptions from the start.people attempting to fill in the blanks for what alternatives they would prefer. I never realised non casuals and non cod fans cared this much about this.

But it’s funny because I remember when the Xbox 360 was teased for being the ‘COD box’ 🤷🏾‍♂️😅 and now we have Sony saying they can’t get by without that COD revenue. Not bad for the most popular game that people love to hate on every year.
90% of the noise is fantard drivel.
 
michael pachter huh?

PlayStation Is "Doomed" and Won't Exist as We Know It in a Decade, Says Analyst​

dude is a dumbass and and has been shilling for MS since eternity

That's great news. It means PS will exist as we know it in a decade. People think its a joke when they hear that the opposite of what pachter says happens, but its actually true. This guy has never correctly predicted anything and the exact opposite happens.
 
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RickMasters

Member
Their true colors...Ooooooh, mommy, I'm scared! Of course they want to block the deal! That would be their first choice. But the real aim is to have as many concessions as they can possibly get.
Their real aim is to block the deal as per Jim Ryan’s own mouth. Right now sony are behaving like concessions are some kind of 4th place prize….

Which is a weird attitude to have towards something you can’t afford to buy in the first place. It’s like standing outside HR Owen and telling people they can’t buy a Range Rover because you can’t afford it, but if they buy you should Atleast get acces to the seats and aircon.
 

Flutta

My tears. Exclusive to gamepass. Forever.
Isn't this what Sony did in 94? Having a financial strength from the company as a whole, selling cheaper than its competitors, buying out a big publisher at the time (Psygnosis) and moneyhatting exclusives left and right because they were the biggest one by large to afford that?
Psygnosis???
The guys who made Lemmings? And you just tried to compare that to AKB and B???
Cracking Up Lol GIF by HULU
 

RickMasters

Member
Isn't this what Sony did in 94? Having a financial strength from the company as a whole, selling cheaper than its competitors, buying out a big publisher at the time (Psygnosis) and moneyhatting exclusives left and right because they were the biggest one by large to afford that?
Yes it is the same tactic but apparently anything that happened in the 90s doesn’t count as it’s just digging up old dirt and making poor comparisons because this is way bigger. Well that’s the general feeling by many anyway.


Me? I say if it’s good for the goose….. you know the rest. It’s all business.
 
20 million is the baseline estimate, he's adding an estimated 10m on top due to pent-up demand (basically all the people who weren't able to find one during chip shortages can now do it).

You have no clue what you are talking about. Drop your spoon and stop digging.
In a console gen where the ratio has been roughly 2:3 in PS5's favor... You're telling someone to drop their spoon because they aren't dumb enough to believe that PS5 will suddenly outsell the XBS of not just 3:1, but more than that?

I'm afraid it's you that has no idea what you're talking about.
 
Yes it is the same tactic but apparently anything that happened in the 90s doesn’t count as it’s just digging up old dirt and making poor comparisons because this is way bigger. Well that’s the general feeling by many anyway.


Me? I say if it’s good for the goose….. you know the rest. It’s all business.

Than explain it? How is it the same? Name the ip that Sony bought. Than we can compare it and see if sony ever did anything similar.
 
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I could see PS5 selling 30 million units per year for the next three years. Unprecedented numbers based on the past but I think the thirst is real. Throw in a price cut in a year or two and certainly possible.

I think to hit 30 million sustained per year over 3 years you'd have to have both

a) a rejuvenation of the Japanese console market
b) a complete collapse of the Xbox brand
 
That's great news. It means PS will exist as we know it in a decade. People think its a joke when they hear that the opposite of what pachter says happens, but its actually true. This guy has never correctly predicted anything and the exact opposite happens.

I don't think PlayStation will exist as we know it in a decade.

I think PlayStation will come to mean gaming across platforms and media. Console+PC+Mobile+Cloud+VR gaming and Video Game TV shows and Video Game Movies.
 
This thread is the best thread ever. I come every couple days to get a good laugh, It never disappoints.
Like the next gen thread. I still miss it sometimes. This one lack a few things to be as crazy but we got some good moments already. The end is sadly near...
In a console gen where the ratio has been roughly 2:3 in PS5's favor... You're telling someone to drop their spoon because they aren't dumb enough to believe that PS5 will suddenly outsell the XBS of not just 3:1, but more than that?

I'm afraid it's you that has no idea what you're talking about.
PS5 is probably a little more than 3:2 right now but this is not really important. Now that the supply issues are gone we can see the real demand for the PS5, and the last few months have seen the PS5 sell like crazy in most markets. In Japan they sold more in one month in 2023 than 4 months of 2022! So we can be optimistic about PS5 sales for this year. Sony upped their estimates for 2022 at the end. So the same could happen this year. ZehDon do have a point that using really overtly optimistic estimates for Sony VS low estimate for Xbox is not fair. But saying that Sony would sell 15 millions this year when we know that 2023 should be better than 2022, and that Sony sold more than the 18 millions that they planned to was not fair too.

The whole 60 millions PS5 VS 25 millions Xbox by the end of the year was just an exageration too, but we know that Sony PS5 sales are accelerating and the Xbox ones are slowing. It is true that the actual market favors the PS5, and that Activision gain more money in Sony ecosystem than in Xbox. This should not change, unless Microsoft does something drastic( like taking no cut or a lot less for this year COD) or find a way to sell a lot more consoles than before. Or making a lot of people enter Gamepass (with Starfield, there is a chance that this game interest them more than the previous offerings, I am interested at least) and stay, wich will be harder. And then making a deal(what kind, when Sony already has one) with Activision. This is if the deal fail, of course. If it succeeds talking of Activision rapport with Sony get useless.
But I do not understand why so many people believe that Sony would loose if the merger is blocked. The more console they sell the more Activision can sell games in it. And if the deal is blocked I do not see Microsoft just giving them 3 billions and then going to them and ask if they want more. Any deal with Xbox would need for them to be paid first. And I can see Microsoft going to the courts and saying to Activision that they will not be paid until all recourses have been taken. Unless there is a clause against that?
 
The redaction aren't a surprise, both companies will redact contractual and potentially contractual data but it does lead to alot of unanswerable questions.

Would love to see the maths, but don't think we are going to ever get it.
It is not just the maths. One of the redacted infos is the date of the offer that Microsoft made to Sony. If Microsoft did not want to have that date made public I found that interesting.
Oh he also has no idea why Berkshire Hathaway sold ATVI …
Some gaffers have said that he has an interest in the merger. Don't remember what exactly.
 

Helghan

Member
I don’t think this is going to happen, but Sony and CMA basically ask Microsoft to sell COD, and then the deal can go through. What does selling COD mean? Selling the brand? Selling the teams developing it?
 

reksveks

Member
It is not just the maths. One of the redacted infos is the date of the offer that Microsoft made to Sony. If Microsoft did not want to have that date made public I found that interesting.
We know that they were thinking about offering a ps plus deal since December so not sure that the date is going to be a bombshell but maybe.

Yep. But clowns were clowning when they said only Sony did them. Now, 🦗
Fortunately I try to pay attention to the clowns (except for when it gets into weird culture war crap, that always baits me)
 
I don’t think this is going to happen, but Sony and CMA basically ask Microsoft to sell COD, and then the deal can go through. What does selling COD mean? Selling the brand? Selling the teams developing it?
I think that it means making a new company that will do COD in the future. Like Nintendo created the Pokemon company. It had been said that divestiture happen often in others sectors but it would be a first in the gaming market as far as I know. Would be interesting to see. But still easier to do than the behavioral remedies that Microsoft wants.
We know that they were thinking about offering a ps plus deal since December so not sure that the date is going to be a bombshell but maybe.
We just had Microsoft president Brad Smith saying a few weeks ago that he has a contract in his pocket for Sony. If the date is after his presentation it would serve Sony interest to publish the date.
 

gothmog

Member
What does that mean? What are you actually selling?
The IP and the whole pipeline to produce said IP. You have to make a case that you actually made the thing you're divesting whole through a buyer that accepts that they are ready to take on ownership of it. It isn't just cut it off and throw it over the fence as that would also be an argument as to why the deal should be scrapped wholesale.
 
I don’t think this is going to happen, but Sony and CMA basically ask Microsoft to sell COD, and then the deal can go through. What does selling COD mean? Selling the brand? Selling the teams developing it?
1) Sony won't/can't ask MS to sell COD.
2) CMA can. And already has.
3) It means selling COD and anything else associated to COD that is necessary to ensure that divestment won't finish COD. In this case, any studios that have been and will be important for the development of COD at the usual standard, i.e., main studios like Infinity Ward as well as support studios such as Sledgehammer.

At this point, this can be pretty much the entire Activision as almost every studio and Activision tech is involved in COD to some capacity.
 
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Helghan

Member
1) Sony won't/can't ask MS to sell COD.
2) CMA can. And already has.
3) It means selling COD and anything else associated to COD that is necessary to ensure that divestment won't finish COD. In this case, any studios that have been and will be important for the development of COD at the usual standard, i.e., main studios like Infinity Ward as well as support studios such as Sledgehammer.
Lol, yeah I wouldn’t do that either. That you have to sell the IP, sure, but not the talent behind it
 

reksveks

Member
We just had Microsoft president Brad Smith saying a few weeks ago that he has a contract in his pocket for Sony. If the date is after his presentation it would serve Sony interest to publish the date.
Had a related conversation yesterday but we know the documents (both Sony's and MS's) were filled on the 22nd Feb, the EC 'presentation' was on the 21st and the bloomberglaw article about MS offering a licensing deal for PS+ was mid-Dec. We don't know when MS formally offered the licensing terms and also if/how the terms have changed.

There is a world where MS gave Sony the contract on the 21st and asked them to redact it, and Sony filed their response to the remedies the day later. I don't know if that's the most likely timeline. Definitely would be the timeline where MS are absolutely being the biggest trolls in the world.
 
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