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NPD June 2012 Results [Up1: Microsoft/Nintendo Hardware, Lego Batman 2, Lollipop]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
To be fair, last year was the start of Nintendo's 2nd big software push on 3DS (eShop, REMercs, Zelda OOT, etc) with a renewed marketing campaign, and sales grew quite bit. This year was basically empty, and the platform still did better (while the industry at large did much worse).
Canis lupus
Member
Christmas period, believe.
Petrae
Member
Or... it needs more software that appeals to a wider audience. That's a far better scenario for Sony than slashing prices and swallowing more losses when the company really can't afford them.
Having said that, the best scenario is arguably a combination of a lower price point (maybe $200) and getting more notable software into retail channels.
Doing better than last year is no achievement given what 3DS was doing at that time. DS took off when it got the DSlite, but I just don't see anything similar doing the same for 3DS. IMO a $80 cut and Mario Kart 7 is more significant than a redesign (for the 3DS anyway, the DS needed one)
I just think any predictions above 100m at this point are silly, and people still refuse to believe that mobiles havn't affected handhelds ...
Pokemon will give it a much needed shot in the arm though, I'm starting to see why they've held off, can't use all their cards so soon. Once NSMB2 comes out and it fails to propel it to great heights like the DS, I wonder what Nintendo's plan of action will be.
Fair enough, I still don't see the same scenario for the 3DS though, it'll never be the 'it' product the Wii and DS were, in fact I struggle to see any videogame system in that light going forward.
metalslimer
Member
But that isn't going to happen until October 30st at the earliest with Assassin's Creed and Persona 4.
Actually if you go back a few pages in the thread you'll see that the NSMB and DS Lite boost has been overexaggerated in how big it made the DS initially. It was a combo of Pokemon, Mario, DS Lite, and the holidays that started the crazy DS sales.
Petrae
Member
I agree that the next few months could be dreadfully slow for Vita, but if Sony kneejerks here and lowers pricing, it hurts the company's already tender bottom line and likely won't do much in the face of the Mario/XL tidal wave that's at least somewhat likely in August... followed by Pokemon not long after, which will influence both legacy DS hardware and potentially 3DS sales as well.
Sony's dealing with a bit of a Kobayashi Maru scenario with the Vita for the near-term. Drop the price? Lose money. Stay the course? Confidence dwindles.
I don't envy Sony one bit here.
For those who are interested in when Nintendo will stop declaring ad enjoying the fact 3DS is selling faster than DS, due to DS' first horrible year...it won't happen that soon.
In fact, in its first two years, DS did 6.6 millions. Considering 3DS right now is at over 5 millions, it would need to sell just 1.6 millions between July and February to be "better than DS first two years". NSMB2 + XL + Old games revived for Holidays + Luigi + Paper Mario + many third party offerings with a good variety + Holidays themselves...it'll sell more than 1.6 millions just in December. So, the PR machine can continue with that line for a looong time. XD
In fact, in its first two years, DS did 6.6 millions. Considering 3DS right now is at over 5 millions, it would need to sell just 1.6 millions between July and February to be "better than DS first two years". NSMB2 + XL + Old games revived for Holidays + Luigi + Paper Mario + many third party offerings with a good variety + Holidays themselves...it'll sell more than 1.6 millions just in December. So, the PR machine can continue with that line for a looong time. XD
RukusProvider
Banned
You're assuming there is a market demand for the Vita in the US waiting on certain factors (games and price points).
I look at it from a historical perspective where the PSP had already lost mindshare and then it was replaced with the Vita.
Lack of interest in a Sony handheld for the US market is a very real possibility regardless of price points and games.
Having said that, yes, I do expect an uptick in sales but it'll be blips and not sustainable. Vita's will live or die by Japan's market.
I do not foresee a scenario is which the Vita LTD figures come anywhere close to PSP figures at the same point in the lifecycle.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Being the lone platform seeing positive results YOY certainly is an achievement in a market as depressed as this one. Particularly when the annual comparison greatly favors last year for promotion and software scheduling on 3DS. I'm not sure why you're willfully overlooking the last point, what did 3DS have this year to drive sales as much as Zelda/RE?
Could/should 3DS be doung better? I'd say yes for sure, but if you actually take more than a superficial glace at these results, it's not exactly terrible either. Certainly not the false equivalency some seem intent on pushing with the dire Vita sales. Not all ships sink in the storm.
As for future prospects, we'll just have to wait and see. I'd don't expect NSMB2/XL to have the same impact that NSMB/Brain-Age/Lite did either, but if you're really predicting failure, I think you're in for a rude awakening shortly...
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Yeah, the landscape has changed so much I don't even think a price cut is going to propel Vita's sales much. It needs to be a combination of solid releases and a price cut. I feel there needs to be more than CoD and AC to lead the charge, as well as a strong marketing campaign if it were to happen.
There's no doubt that iDevices have made a huge impact on handhelds, and will continue to do so. The handheld market will certainly never be the same, and it's only going to get more difficult for Nintendo and Sony as time goes on. The funny thing is if Apple ever releases some sort of Bluetooth controller, both Sony and Nintendo are going to be in a world of hurt.
There's no doubt that iDevices have made a huge impact on handhelds, and will continue to do so. The handheld market will certainly never be the same, and it's only going to get more difficult for Nintendo and Sony as time goes on. The funny thing is if Apple ever releases some sort of Bluetooth controller, both Sony and Nintendo are going to be in a world of hurt.
metalslimer
Member
Why in the world would a bluetooth controller ever do anything to hurt 3DS/Vita sales more than it already is? Are you going to carry an extra controller around to play these games on your iOS device? And if you're talking about playing at home wouldn't that hurt consoles more. This argument never really made sense logically to me especially considering the real reason handhelds have a future is Japan who aren't going to make a main Monster Hunter game for an iOS device anytime soon.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/monster-hunter-dynamic-hunting/id428887661?mt=8
The problem is so many traditional handheld games suffer when making the move to an iDevice, because of the lack of proper physical controls. That's the reason you're not seeing a "main" Monster Hunter game. Capcom has to work within the limitations of the hardware.
If Apple can come up with some sort of physical controller I think it will make a huge impact on the competition.
And I know I can't be the only one who plays handheld games at home.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
Comparable controls and inexpensive games on hardware you already own.
If done right a controller add-on could be devastating to the dedicated handheld gaming market.
Version 3.0
Member
Version 3.0
Member
I don't see it. Not for phones. The appeal of games on phones is the convenience. There's nothing convenient about a controller that's bigger than the phone.
Now, for tablets, it could be another story. Give a tablet a stand or TV-dock and a controller, and you could potentially have a serious gaming device (given the right game support, of course) instead of a crippled one.
I don't think they're terrible numbers, I just don't think they're great or worth shouting about. This time last year 3DS may have been getting a push but it was still overpriced and obviously doing very bad because Nintendo did that massive cut a month or so later. They were so low that beating them this year in this month, was a pretty easy feat.
I expect NSM2 to do well, I didn't say anything to the contry, just that it won't be DS like big.
Oh man, I really enjoyed this thread. Anyways I think XL should help the 3DS sales a lot, made me excited at least.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
It could be an optional feature that integrates really well with the phone. For instance, it could be a clamshell add-on that can connect to the phone. Sure, dedicated gaming handheld controls might still have some advantages, but an add-on like that could be good enough for the vast majority of consumers looking for a more tactile gaming experience.
Parmenides
Banned
The vast majority of PS3 sales are made since September 2009,so the active installed base has grown considerably until March 2012.What happens next remains to be seen.
I think software shipments constitute a kind of acid test.
PS3 Worldwide Unit Sales (Unit: Million)
Code:
Software FY
FY 2009/10 115.6
FY 2010/11 147.9
FY 2011/12 156.6
* Network downloaded software is not included within unit software salesThose companies take time to put things into context and think twice before pulling the trigger.
NPD - Hardware LTD (Unit: Million)
Code:
PS2box PS360
June 2012 ~ 61.0 55.8
Yeah,it's pretty simple.
NPD 1st Half - Hardware (Unit: Million)
Code:
360 PS3
2009 1.62 1.11
2010 1.92 1.59
2011 2.42 1.69
2012 1.72 1.38Yeah.The trick always works when you have strong third party support.
Most people usually underestimate the effect of price cuts.That kind of reaction never gets old.
PS2 fights falling sales (24 July, 2003)
Sony Profit Falls on PlayStation 2 Sales (October 23,2003)
Slumping PS2 sales sting Sony (January 28, 2004)
Sony extends PS2 life cycle (Mar 29, 2004)
In more recent times...
PS3 Retail sales achieve 1 million sales in 3 weeks WW (24 Sep, 2009)
Hardware Shipments - [Jan 2010 - Mar 2012] (Unit: Million)
Code:
Global Shipments US Sales (NPD) (Global - NPD)
PS3 30.4 9.7 20.7
Wii 28.4 12.2 16.2
360 28.4 15.1 13.3
NDS 26.38 12.5 13.88
3DS 17.13 4.7 12.43
PSP 16.2 3.4 12.8
PS2 12.2 1.4 10.8While the Xbox 360 is the new PS2 in America,the PS3 is the new PS2 outside the US.Price cuts will extend PS360 life cycle.
Bringing out the PS4/Xbox3 too early could potentially destroy the console market too.
Official April 2008 NPD thread
GAF said:
Cut prices -> Keep selling the current console, make money -> Take you time, let the tech advance far enough and mature -> Sell the new toy at a reasonable price and make money since day one -> Fulfill Mark Rein's dreams (July 12, 2012)
Mark Rein said:
SCE CEO (June 17, 2012)
Andrew House said:
SCEA CEO (June 6, 2012)
Jack Tretton said:
One more thing.Europe and Japan won't be ready until 2014/15 at the earliest (I'm probably being too generous with Japan)
metalslimer
Member
So you basically are asking Apple to release an add on that would effectively kill the reason people like Apple devices (sleekness well design) to release some bastardized add on that still wouldn't kill off dedicated devices because Japan still isn't going to throw their handhelds in the closet for something like this.
Edit: Paremenides not to be offensive but do you have like prescripted versions of your posts lying around?
Urgh at Vita being by far the worst for June.
metalslimer
Member
And yet is pretty much confirmed (barring a delay) both of the other consoles are coming next year.
Thanks for the chart, puts things into perspective for people claiming these sales are good.
To the guy that posted this:
NPD - Hardware LTD (Unit: Million)
Code:
PS2box PS360
June 2012 ~ 61.0 55.8
Is that 16m Xbox and 45m PS2?
I am not denying that it isnt coming.
But looking @ Sony 2013 line up and a new ps3 model.
Sony wants to have maximum sales WW next year
metalslimer
Member
And this people is why people are worried. Publishers see this kind of data as well.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
Or android. And why can't the add-on be sleek? Like I said, the controller might not have all the advantages of dedicated handheld, but most consumers aren't as picky as GAF.
I have PS2 = 46.2mm and Xbox = 14.3mm.
Yeah, but I'm sure if you draw the same graph but for console the picture is quite similar (yeah I know Wii/PS3/360 are old systems while 3DS/Vita are new and thus they should strive).
Yeah I thought PS2 was above 46m, thought XB was at 16m as well though, thanks for clarifying.
metalslimer
Member
The problem with your theory is that biggest thing keeping dedicated handhelds alive right now in the west is Nintendo's software which isn't going anywhere. People will keep buying these things for their kids to get the new Pokemon. Now, the systems won't ever be as big as the DS but you don't need that kind of consumer base for a healthy market.
velvet_nitemare
Member
Vita and even 3DS (Post massive price cut, Mario Kart and Mario) not looking good here.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Man, GBA was such a monster, and all without the casual audience that 3DS is suppossedly going to die without...
Stealth20k
Banned
lets also forget that he economy is in the crapper..............
we also have to take into account some of those later years were remodels
Its not like consoles are doing those kind of absurd numbers anymore either.
The 3ds and vita will be fine.
I dont want to game without controls on a phone as my main
we also have to take into account some of those later years were remodels
Its not like consoles are doing those kind of absurd numbers anymore either.
The 3ds and vita will be fine.
I dont want to game without controls on a phone as my main
snoopeasystreet
Member
So the PSP last June outsold the Vita this june? That's insane. The vita is such a nice piece of hardware, it deserves more.
metalslimer
Member
The GBA was Nintendo at their best. Released at the perfect time, at a cheap price (99 bucks) with well priced software. Unlike the 3DS which I think is still too expensive for the market dedicated handhelds can thrive with (which is mainly kids and some teenagers). 40 dollar software is not inviting at all.
Stealth20k
Banned
170, is the only viable price for them to make money. Its good enough to were sales did stabelize, and now when the xl comes out they can drop that main one to 150 Id imagine.......
40 is fine ( as the highest, many games are lower)
You keep saying this as if you have a crystal ball ... nothing right now suggests they'll be 'ok' and what has you not wanting to play games on mobiles got to do with anything.
Not far off 3DS this year and last as well, which is even more remarkable.
metalslimer
Member
I think Nintendo is going to regret not pushing Gamefreak more to make Black/White 2 a 3DS game.
Stealth20k
Banned
Everything suggests the 3ds will be just fine. When you cant ever tell how a system will do 5 months in which is essentially vita. Give it time.
Stealth20k
Banned
Unfortunately nintendo doesnt own the majority share, so I dont think they were in a position to do that. But I dont think they will regret it. Pokemon is already on the 3ds ( some side games) and when a main game does go on 3ds it will be big.
I mean its not like gamefreak jumped right on ds dev when the gba was winding down
No, it doesn't, it's had a huge price cut and a big game release (which pushed DS for years) and it's doing these numbers. Judging by all your posts in this thread you just seem to be in denial all things Nintendo.
Stealth20k
Banned
Price cuts happen. Nintendo did what it needed to do, and nobody is regretting that move. Its had wonderful titles, and that will continue. Its doing these numbers in a crap economy, and its outpacing what the ds did, which also had a slow start before another price drop/remodel.
Do I expect this to be another 150 million seller? Hell the frick no
But Do I expect it to at least do the nintendo portable name proud? I sure do
Please, dont start being rude/insulting, its lame.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
I honestly would if given the chance.
metalslimer
Member
Actually the DS got its real boost from New Super Mario Bros and Pokemon which is releasing in a month. Mario Kart didn't really give it that much of a boost. Mario Kart is more of game that sells with the trend of how the system is doing. If a system does extremely well (Wii,DS) Mario Kart does well along with it. And 3D Mario is no comparison for selling compared to a 2d Mario game. I think we really need to save the discussion for August NPD