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[Hip Hop]

They did, $500m was for the first game including marketing.

and the other 3 games left.

 

[Zee-Row]

These companies need to change the way they do business. Huge launch and you still lose money? This is why the industry us in the toilet it's in.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

calladutys preorders are terrible

it's why at the last minute they attached a preorder bonus skin to Destiny and why they have day zero edition

Oh really? Link?

and the other 3 games left.

Just the first game.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891704

 

[_woLf]

THIS HAPPENS WITH ALL AAA GAME LAUNCHES.

This is not a reason to over-react at ALL.

 

[Damerman]

Why are you making it about you? Do you have any stake in it? I mean what is that statement suppose to mean?

This topic is about how they rightfully acted not what you think or feel about how they acted.

wow. ok.... umm.. lol

rightfully acted? are we in agreement that day traders over react or not? cuz.. uh back then when we said that over reaction is normal... and now i'm like, confused.

 

[Alebelly]

Activision is doomed? I don't know how much you guys know about regression analysis (I'm an expert).

Spoiler

own acti and very happy with it's performance

dost tak egenious

 

[Harlock]

Stock marketing is a very much like a giant gamble house. Buy and sell because of morning news, nothing to do with solid things.

 

[AmuroChan]

These companies need to change the way they do business. Huge launch and you still lose money? This is why the industry us in the toilet it's in.

They didn't lose money. It's just market cap. Relax.

 

[Akhe]

Now THATS a loot drop.

I'm laughing so hard right now!

 

[Avatar1]

On September 9th, Destiny launched bringing the valuation of Activision Blizzard's stock, ATVI, to 23.73$ at its closing, close to an All-time high of 24.18$.

The past few days however, it seems investors are singing a different tune due to Destiny lukewarm reviews and disappointing sell-through - over 500 million $ worth of shipments were sent out to retailers - nonetheless only 325 million $ sold-through thus far effectively leaving 175 million $ worth of inventory on store shelves.

As such, ever since the launch of Destiny, the stock has now rapidly declined, losing over 10% of its valuation to where it stands currently 21.60$ ish - 1.5 billion $ erased from ATVI's market cap in just a few days.

Any thoughts?

On a side note, ATVI achieved a successful launch of Destiny and I've been enjoying the game thoroughly. It seems investors are worried of the longterm prospects of the game; hence, the decline ATVI's stock.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102009225
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ac...of-destiny-worldwide-as-of-day-one-2014-09-10
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ATVI

sounds like the stock is on sale. Maybe I'll buy some shares finally. Activision always wins.

 

[Mengy]

Lol buy some Activision stock right now.

I'm actually thinking about it. Seems like purely a shareholder over reaction to me, Activision is a strong gaming company in the market right now with a plethora of good IP's. The stock surely won't stay down for long.

 

[Alienous]

Well shieeeet.

 

[PSGames]

Actually most sales occur within the first week from pre-orders/hype. Given the bad reviews I don't think it will sell well into the holiday season.

Multiplayer games can buck this trend though if word of mouth is strong enough.

 

[Darkstorne]

1. They didn't spend $500M yet. Ask Bungie.
2. Household name that's been very popular for over a decade vs. New IP, albeit a heavily advertised one
3. It's been one week, Jesus Christ!

Think about it though - Activision and shareholders were expecting this to be a 90+ game, setting them up nicely for a ton of DLC sales and even better sequel sales, for the better part of a decade. The concern now will be that too many gamers will drop the game and not purchase DLC, and that the IP is in a worse position for a sequel: "Destiny 2 - the sequel to the 76/100 rated letdown of 2014, coming soon to a store near you" is how a lot of people will read the advertising.

 

[AmuroChan]

I'm actually thinking about it. Seems like purely a shareholder over reaction to me, Activision is a strong gaming company in the market right now with a plethora of good IP's. The stock surely won't stay down for long.

Nope it won't. Now's the time to get in and ride the rebound.

 

[syko de4d]

maybe some thought it would be a new WoW that has over 1 billion revenue each year for the next 10 years and now they realized it will not.

 

[Duxxy3]

These companies need to change the way they do business. Huge launch and you still lose money? This is why the industry us in the toilet it's in.

It's very unlikely that Destiny lost money. It is likely it did not meet investors expectations (as ridiculous as they were).

 

[Orayn]

They did, $500m was for the first game including marketing.

Okay.

“We’re pouring everything it takes into Destiny to ensure it meets our fans' expectations, and our own,” Osborne added. “Activision is, too. But the budget for Destiny, including associated marketing costs and pizza Wednesdays, is nowhere near 500 million dollars.”

Clearly Bungie already knew that their shitty 0/10 unplayable SIN of a game would bomb, so they started telling lies as damage control several months in advance.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

If I saw the reviews I'd probably bet on the side of the game not having legs before some major revisions are made. As amazing as the sell-through still is, if the game 'only' pulls Halo 3 numbers it will be a relative let down compared to Activision's expectations.

Multiplayer games can buck this trend though if word of mouth is strong enough.

The stock dropped because they anticipate WoM being terrible.

 

[Alienous]

THIS HAPPENS WITH ALL AAA GAME LAUNCHES.

This is not a reason to over-react at ALL.

Why wouldn't they hold-on for Call of Duty.

Are they all idiots?

 

[Castef]

They still have Call of Duty to come out later this year, I dunno looks like a end of the quarter sell off by investors.

Their timing was not that good, actually.

Destiny could easily cannibalize a slice of the COD sales.

 

[Horns]

Wall Street is just like GAF, over reactive.

 

[AmuroChan]

Why wouldn't they hold-on for Call of Duty.

Are they all idiots?

Because they know the market would overreact. So sell high at $24/$25. Buy back in at $20/$21. Typical short and day-trading strategy.

 

[LordOcidax]

THIS HAPPENS WITH ALL AAA GAME LAUNCHES.

This is not a reason to over-react at ALL.

Still Destiny a AAA game?

 

[Solid Samus]

Well considering 500 million is being spent on destiny they had reason to.

They spent 2x gta5 money for a third of the sales

and also to create exposure for and begin a brand new franchise they can in the future iterate upon and also market both at less of a cost

 

[Eddie Griffin]

Being the best selling new IP OF ALL TIME isn't enough!?

I think the issue is that they still have not said anything about sales numbers. But the investors know what they are.

Also it's most pre-ordered new ip.

 

[LycanXIII]

Buy now, and sell after CoD comes out.

 

[AmuroChan]

Still Destiny a AAA game?

Yes. AAA has nothing to do with the quality of the game. It's a classification for the budget and marketing of the game. Destiny is an AAA game in every sense of the term.

 

[Triggerhappytel]

This is what happens when a publisher puts all their stock in a small number of franchises and one of them is a critical disappointment. I imagine Destiny's mid-to-long term sales will be healthy enough (if we're at ~5 million copies sold within a week then I guess 8-10 million by the time Destiny 2 launches is attainable), but it will probably need some changes in the core game design and the launch of Destiny 2 to really reach all that potential.

 

[Mengy]

Nope it won't. Now's the time to get in and ride the rebound.

Yeah, think I'll give it a day or two to see if it plateaus or keeps falling though. Should be a fairly safe investment though.

 

[mcrommert]

Still Destiny a AAA game?

Umm...if Destiny isn't a AAA game then i'm not sure they exist

 

[E92 M3]

Cryptarch laughs at Activision stockholders. They thought they were buying Activision stock, but it was actually a penny stock.

 

[Duxxy3]

Buy now, and sell after CoD comes out.

That is probably what's gonna happen.

Let the stock drop on Destiny news, buy when it gets low in anticipation of growth from COD hype.

Gotta love short term investing.

 

[BeforeU]

Still Destiny a AAA game?

lol what is it then in your view? Indie game?

 

[Eddie Griffin]

The issue some people may not realize is that Destiny needs to bring in sales numbers to combat this loss. However Investors seem to have lowered the value.

All Destiny related announcements have not had sales numbers released. Just worth value in $. Which may be pretty good for a game to make, but also notice that despite those number being better than other games, that is not enough to make up for how much Activision+Bungie had spent.

It seems clear to me that the game had expectations in sales numbers retail+digital, wayyyyy to high, and it has backfired a bit on Activision.

 

[zou]

ATVI is up over 20% this year handily beating out the major indices. It is perfectly normal for people to take the opportunity to sell some stock after it hit a new high when Destiny released. This really doesn't mean anything unless the stock continues to drop while the greater market is relatively flat.

And EA is up 60%, so not really that impressive.

Also, doesn't look like "profit taking" to me:

 

[LordOcidax]

Yes. AAA has nothing to do with the quality of the game. It's a classification for the budget and marketing of the game. Destiny is an AAA game in every sense of the term.

Ok. Based in the budget and marketing of the game... The Nintendo games are? I have a confusion now....

 

[Northeastmonk]

I bet it does alright over time. What do they expect to do with AW? I prebought Advanced Warfare, so I think it's catching on.

 

[silvermember]

wow. ok.... umm.. lol

rightfully acted? are we in agreement that day traders over react or not? cuz.. uh back then when we said that over reaction is normal... and now i'm like, confused.

I agree that sometimes day traders CAN over react. I don't agree that they are over reacting in this case, given what they know about the game's performance.I don't blame the investors they are playing a very expensive game with people's numbers without any cheat sheet.

A lot of gamers are buying into the sell in number Activision put out because they don't know any better and activision isn't in any no legal obligation to be honest until the quarterly report. Activision used manipulation and players that are not aware of the subtleties buys into that sell-in hype.

Investor, given the reviews are probably more concern about the long term profitability of the Destiny project that the short term boost in revenues. So far there is no indication that Destiny will pull in CoD and GTA numbers and destiny cost more to make than GTA did. So yes, destiny made 500 million, what good does that do, if it has a low ROI. It means that it was a waste of money and Activision would have been better off investing it in something else or keeping the money in a bank.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Still Destiny a AAA game?

Actually, given the spend, I'd say it was AAAA

 

[Popnbake]

1. They didn't spend $500M yet. Ask Bungie.
2. Household name that's been very popular for over a decade vs. New IP, albeit a heavily advertised one
3. It's been one week, Jesus Christ!

They're worried about the reviews and public reception effecting sales momentum after that one week.

 

[Chû Totoro]

Being the best selling new IP OF ALL TIME isn't enough!?

With a target market growing year after year (yeah Destiny has a way bigger target market than GTA V had when it launched for example) it means (almost) nothing... mobile sales keep breaking records for this reason.

Aslo market is about perspectives not today's photo.

 

[Daemul]

Now THATS a loot drop.

 

[Reg]

Smells like a short.

 

[entremet]

Wall Street is all about expectations.

Activision hyped Destiny way too much and is reaping what they sow now. Also this is just a blip. Let's look at this long term, though.

 

[Duxxy3]

I bet it does alright over time. What do they expect to do with AW?

I would expect growth over Ghosts. There's no Battlefield title to compete with, and Destiny will be almost two months behind.

 

[evilalien]

And EA is up 60%, so not really that impressive.

Also, doesn't look like "profit taking" to me:

Sure, a 5 day graph is totally going to let you see if it is profit taking /s. EA being up 60% this year is completely irrelevant for ATVI stockholders.

 

[Northeastmonk]

Actually, given the spend, I'd say it was AAAA

Maybe it was like this:

A
A A

You see how you stack that last A?

They should just copyright that symbol and place it on all Triple A games.

I would expect growth over Ghosts. There's no Battlefield title to compete with, and Destiny will be almost two months behind.

I didn't get the Season Pass bundle (I never do). I'm just hoping they deliver a solid campaign. I'm wondering how they'll try and sell it. I know some people already know the CoD formula, so I wonder how many pass up Destiny this season for CoD. I hate saying that, but the retail jobs I've worked in have taught me something. I've also bought CoD religiously on launch since 4 came out. I spent $90 for Destiny and $60 for CoD every year.

 

[BibiMaghoo]

On September 9th, Destiny launched bringing the valuation of Activision Blizzard's stock, ATVI, to 23.73$ at its closing, close to an All-time high of 24.18$.

The past few days however, it seems investors are singing a different tune due to Destiny lukewarm reviews and disappointing sell-through - over 500 million $ worth of shipments were sent out to retailers - nonetheless only 325 million $ sold-through thus far effectively leaving 175 million $ worth of inventory on store shelves.

I'm not stock guy, but that seems a really disingenuous appraisal of what they have sent out and or lost. The stock is worth that in sales, but it is not actually worth that in the sense that it cost them anything like that to manufacture and put on shelves.

Maybe that's how it's normally done, but it seems wrong to do it that way to me.

 

[AmuroChan]

The issue some people may not realize is that Destiny needs to bring in sales numbers to combat this loss. However Investors seem to have lowered the value.

All Destiny related announcements have not had sales numbers released. Just worth value in $. Which may be pretty good for a game to make, but also notice that despite those number being better than other games, that is not enough to make up for how much Activision+Bungie had spent.

It seems clear to me that the game had expectations in sales numbers retail+digital, wayyyyy to high, and it has backfired a bit on Activision.

I think you give investors (many of whom don't even manage their own portfolios) too much credit. I guarantee you that many of the investors who sold their shares don't care about Destiny at all. They saw that the stock hit an all-time high a few days ago, and decided to sell and cash. One of the reasons why you can't accurately predict the market all the time is because you can't predict every investor's motivation.