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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

A

allan-bh

Member
I'm thinking that maybe the impact of the price increase of PS4 and Xbox One will lead to much more lower sales than anticipated.

Let's see, I'm curious about the impact of the deals in nov/dec had in january.
 
S

Sterok

Member
In terms of hardware there was a noticeable increase in concentration of sales in November/December, seeing how low October was overall. I think the most interesting thing here will be seeing whether or not that concentration hurt January like it hurt October.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
From this distant vantage point, Consoles might not seem of any particular interest. But for us, it's different. Consider again Consoles. That's here. That's home. That's us. On Consoles is everything you love, everything you know, everything you ever heard of, where we lived out our lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident companies, platforms, and DLC doctrines, every Kaz and Iwata, every Tretton and Greenberg, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every Sony fan and Sega fan, every Nintendo family in love with Wii Bowling, every Atari and Coleco, OUYA, Magnavox and Famicom, every Mario, every Ezzio, every Sonic, every Big Daddy, every Cate Archer and Smoking Man in the history of Consoles lived there – on a dot of a piece of plastic, covered in dust, suspended on an entertainment stand.

Consoles are a very small stage in a vast gaming arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those console warriors so that in glory and triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to troll one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this. Consoles are a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In Console obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

Consoles are the only world we've known, so far, to harbor warz. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Purchase, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, Consoles are where we make our stand. It has been said that gaming is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this image of our tiny Console world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the Console, the only home we've ever known.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Sterok said:
In terms of hardware there was a noticeable increase in concentration of sales in November/December, seeing how low October was overall. I think the most interesting thing here will be seeing whether or not that concentration hurt January like it hurt October.
Click to expand...
It will be even worse. We are approaching japanese XboxOne sales region.
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
allan-bh said:
I'm thinking that maybe the impact of the price increase of PS4 and Xbox One will lead to much more lower sales than anticipated.

Let's see, I'm curious about the impact of the deals in nov/dec had in january.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I am actually fearing I put my predictions too high after thinking this aspect more.
 
C

CorporateClown

Member
CosmicQueso said:
So no one in this thread is actually saying consoles are doomed, but we have dozens of comments saying that people are saying consoles are doomed. Doomception.

Consoles as we know them today are doomed in the next decade or two, though. But then again, on a long enough timeline we all are.
Click to expand...

You're either doomed a hero, or you live long enough to...doom yourself...or something.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
CosmicQueso said:
*snip*
Click to expand...
beautiful
theres-no-place-like-home-quote-1.jpg
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
If someone wants to plan a crime and needs a safe communication channel where no one is listening - January salesGAF threads are a good option...
 
C

Cess007

Member
CosmicQueso said:
From this distant vantage point, Consoles might not seem of any particular interest. But for us, it's different. Consider again Consoles. That's here. That's home. That's us. On Consoles is everything you love, everything you know, everything you ever heard of, where we lived out our lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident companies, platforms, and DLC doctrines, every Kaz and Iwata, every Tretton and Greenberg, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every Sony fan and Sega fan, every Nintendo family in love with Wii Bowling, every Atari and Coleco, OUYA, Magnavox and Famicom, every Mario, every Ezzio, every Sonic, every Big Daddy, every Cate Archer and Smoking Man in the history of Consoles lived there – on a dot of a piece of plastic, covered in dust, suspended on an entertainment stand.

Consoles are a very small stage in a vast gaming arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those console warriors so that in glory and triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to troll one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this. Consoles are a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In Console obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

Consoles are the only world we've known, so far, to harbor warz. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Purchase, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, Consoles are where we make our stand. It has been said that gaming is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this image of our tiny Console world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another and to preserve and cherish the Console, the only home we've ever known.
Click to expand...

Carl Sagan would be proud :')
 
A

allan-bh

Member
slavesnyder said:
If someone wants to plan a crime and needs a safe communication channel where no one is listening - January salesGAF threads are a good option...
Click to expand...

That's nice, I prefer slow NPD threads, it's better to talk about. But unfortunately january sales should not offer many interesting things to discuss.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
slavesnyder said:
If someone wants to plan a crime and needs a safe communication channel where no one is listening - January salesGAF threads are a good option...
Click to expand...
'Quantum Break on PC' news ate NPD's lunch and then some. There must have been like 5 or 6 threads related to that news on the front page.

I think January is actually interesting, in the way that the comparison with Nov/ Dec tells us how big the end of year concentration evolved. Also gives us the tone for the rest of the year generally.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Elandyll said:
'Quantum Break on PC' news ate NPD's lunch and then some. There must have been like 5 or 6 threads related to that news on the front page.

I think January is actually interesting, in the way that the comparison with Nov/ Dec tells us how big the end of year concentration evolved. Also gives us the tone for the rest of the year generally.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. January will help to understand the trend of this year.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
RED_RING said:
I agree with you. January will help to understand the trend of this year.
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Only thing is: if january looks bad for Xbox, roty will even be worse. PS4 exclusives, VR and the NX could do huge damage.
Only thing that Xbox could do would be dumping or consequent W10 crossbuy.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Only thing is: if january looks bad for Xbox, roty will even be worse. PS4 exclusives, VR and the NX could do huge damage.
Only thing that Xbox could do would be dumping or consequent W10 crossbuy.
Click to expand...

Let's not be already so pessimist. :p

Anyway, just for know, what could be a "bad" january for One? down YOY? Up by a super small margin?

Or maybe be outsold by PS4 by a good / very big margin ? like 80-100K?
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Launching the bundle in March instead of April?! Ingenious^^ I simultaneously guessed their bundle and underestimated their use of it at the same time. March will, in all actuality, be interesting^^
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
RED_RING said:
Let's not be already so pessimist. :p

Anyway, just for know, what could be a "bad" january for One? down YOY? Up by a super small margin?

Or maybe be outsold by PS4 by a good / very big margin ? like 80-100K?
Click to expand...
The latter.
Everyone down yoy would be acceptable after this great holiday season. Remember it started black friday and went all through end december.
And then the prices went up again. Noone sane should have bought a console in January.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
slavesnyder said:
The latter.
Everyone down yoy would be acceptable after this great holiday season. Remember it started black friday and went all through end december.
And then the prices went up again. Noone sane should have bought a console in January.
Click to expand...

But this logic could be used even for XB1 in January 2015, after the temporaney pricedrop and the insane holidays it still sold >150,000 in January of last year.

Imo, if both will be down, that's bad. If PS4 will outsell XB1 by 200K but XB1 still sell +100% more than last year, this is really good for One.
 
S

serversurfer

Member
RED_RING said:
But this logic could be used even for XB1 in January 2015, after the temporaney pricedrop and the insane holidays it still sold >150,000 in January of last year.

Imo, if both will be down, that's bad. If PS4 will outsell XB1 by 200K but XB1 still sell +100% more than last year, this is really good for One.
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150k + 100% = 300k Bones in January 2016
300k + 200k = 500k PS4s in January 2016

Yes, I'd say that'd be pretty good for both companies… =/
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
After massive holiday seasons, I think January will not be indicative of the total year performance. That should fall to February.
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
Since it's hard to tell with the moving goalposts.....

What would be considered good/bad for PS4? for XB1? for the console market overall?
 
T

Tarrin

Member
Wonder if the Resident Evil Origins Collection will make the charts. Was this and Life Is Strange the only retail releases for the month?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
watdaeff4 said:
Since it's hard to telling with the moving goalposts.....

What would be considered good/bad for PS4? for XB1? for the console market overall?
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Good would be

XB1: >150k (up YoY)
PS4: >189k (up YoY)

Anything less for the PS4 would be concerning because of the price drop. The XB1 might be something "not good" because this month it stayed at $349 while last year had half of the month at $399. However, it has been over a year since the console has been available for $349.

allan-bh said:
February is tax return season, sales are higher than a regular pre season month.
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I think it is a better indicator than dead as hell January because February would be a good way of seeing the demand for the consoles.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Called it^^ But they announced it a lot sooner than I thought... probably for the best. I'm not done with all the quests from Taken King yet, but I know most of the core players have been since challenges launched, so communication is key...

Trust me said:
It was supposed to in September. Rumor mill has it pushed back, but no official word. We will know by E3. We know Bungie was having a hard time making enough content all on their own and that Highmoon studios was brought on to help them right after Taken King Shipped. My guess? Bungie proper is working on Destiny 2 for a September 2017 release and that Highmoon and the live team will be giving us another Taken King sized expansion this fall. But, again, we won't know until E3.
Click to expand...
 
R

Rymuth

Member
Trust me said:
Called it^^ But they announced it a lot sooner than I thought... probably for the best. I'm not done with all the quests from Taken King yet, but I know most of the core players have been since challenges launched, so communication is key...
Click to expand...
Wrong thread?
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Tarrin said:
Wonder if the Resident Evil Origins Collection will make the charts. Was this and Life Is Strange the only retail releases for the month?
Click to expand...
Lego Avengers?

Also, most exiting game release for January might have been digital "console exclusive" witness. Maybe dozens bought a PS4 for that?
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Without George we will need that creamsugar provides more than a pie for have HW sales, or that Queso make some comments to give us a baseline.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
We also need some Kev-bait. Can't someone trustworthy mutter some suspicious noises?
at least I finally found out after years what the + next to the " is for...
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
You can all rest easy now, I've returned to this thread. Even though I forgot to update my numbers after my initial post... ugh... off to a great start this year.
 
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