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[FluxWaveZ]

I mean, when the game came out all I heard was postive praise for it. I assumed it was really good. Recently, I haven't heard a good thing about the game. Weird.

People actually played more of the game, and then reached the pivotal moment where the game becomes tremendously divisive. For many, Bravely Default drops off in quality significantly at that very moment. This would be a factor regarding sales for the sequel.

 

[cj_iwakura]

I guess the next Blazblue game will be released on PS3 too, ASW can't take the risk and release it only on PS4. Xrd also did considerably lower on PS4.

Good.

 

[Eolz]

.

Several people already said it, but excellent post Nirolak

 

[ZSaberLink]

Type-0 HD had a better debut month than Bravely Default for NPD though?

Not by much. BD was 160K retail, 40K digital in its debut month (I'm pretty sure BD was sold-out at retail), whereas Type-0 HD + FFXV demo only sold a little over 200K (this doesn't include digital, but I don't know the digital #s for Type-0 HD though). We'll see if Type-0 HD eventually hits the US sales mark for BD (BD has sold more in the US than JP if you don't count "For the Sequel")

People actually played more of the game, and then reached the pivotal moment where the game becomes tremendously divisive. For many, Bravely Default drops off in quality significantly at that very moment. This would be a factor regarding sales for the sequel.

The second half was pretty much optional. IMO they could have cut out the second half entirely (maybe had like 1-2 hours getting to the "true end") and it would have been much less controversial. It already took me 50+ hrs to get through the 1st of the game. There really was no need to try to pad it out like they did.

 

[theprodigy]

Not by much. BD was 160K retail, 40K digital (I'm pretty sure BD was sold-out at retail), whereas Type-0 HD + FFXV demo only sold a little over 200K (not sure of digital here though)

yeah that's 200k before digital, as opposed to 200k including digital

 

[ZSaberLink]

yeah that's 200k before digital, as opposed to 200k including digital

Right, I know it doesn't include digital for Type-0 HD, it's just I don't know the digital sales. Given that this gen it's typically like 20%, it could have also sold 40K more digitally. BD did remarkably well digitally, and at the time it was attributed to shortages in retail.

 

[antibolo]

Considering how Arc System Works can't be bothered to support PS3 sticks in their PS4 games, the PS4 version of Chronophantasma Extend is inherently inferior to the PS3 version since the game was already running at full performance and graphics on PS3 anyway.

 

[Mpl90]

[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario Bros. (33 days) - 480,212
[WIU] Xenoblade X (33 days) - 133,000
[WII+WIU] Dragon Quest X Version 3 (32 days) - 219,956
[PS4] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD (18 days) - 37,104
[PS4+XBO] The Witcher 3 (11 days) - 40,890
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe (4 days) - 55,344
[WIU] Splatoon (4 days) - 85,222

 

[Rymuth]

.

You should write a book some day, Nirolak. I'm serious.

 

[ZhugeEX]

You should write a book some day, Nirolak. I'm serious.

Nirolak always has excellent posts!

 

[Chris1964]

should be around 220k everything combined for RER2. Not bad, PS3+PS4 is just above what the PS3 version did last time 190k.

220k would come if these online sales are only the full episode downloads.

 

[horuhe]

16./12. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 4.973 / 2.603.857 (-9%)
17./10. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 4.851 / 2.591.702 (-14%)

What a sad week! Really hope YW2 could surpass ORAS in GW

 

[djtiesto]

You should write a book some day, Nirolak. I'm serious.

I always wonder if Nirolak is the infamous Serkan Toto, the mobile games sales guy.

 

[Eolz]

I always wonder if Nirolak is the infamous Serkan Toto, the mobile games sales guy.

Nah.

Spoiler

Serkan Toto doesn't always have excellent posts.

 

[1st Course]

Is bravely second actually any good? How are the JapanGAF impressions?

 

[1st Course]

Already asked in the old thread, but could those low BD2 sales rise in next weeks numbers because this week is Golden Week, right?

Or rather, is Golden Week being this week a possible the reason for those low sales (all around).

Golden Week is not as big as it used to be appearntly. Drop will still be pretty bad. Maybe not 80% but think 70-65%.

 

[hiska-kun]

The strength of Golden Week (software wise) will be on week 19, not 18.

 

[RyougaSaotome]

Is bravely second actually any good? How are the JapanGAF impressions?

Positive. Only a few people are done with it, but the people still playing it (myself included) are really digging it.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Essentially, for Square-Enix, it was Tuesday.

Bigger ROI? That's usually what happens with some markets and genres.

I'm struggling to think of where this has netted favourable outcomes in the modern dedicated space. Or even where it occurs at all.

 

[Lemstar]

the game was already running at full performance and graphics on PS3 anyway.

It actually wasn't. There's a reason every serious match is on Silent Colosseum or Alter.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Positive. Only a few people are done with it, but the people still playing it (myself included) are really digging it.

Well as long as there's no "fuck you" point like there was in the first game... wonder if players burned by FF will give EL a shot and he'll give it a good tail.

 

[RyougaSaotome]

Well as long as there's no "fuck you" point like there was in the first game... wonder if players burned by FF will give EL a shot and he'll give it a good tail.

No "fuck you" according to people who have finished!

 

[hiska-kun]

Today's releases {2015.04.30}

[WIU] [WII] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.104)

[PSV] To Heart 2: Dungeon Travelers # <ADV> (Aqua Plus) (¥5.184)

New Shipment for Xenoblade X

Ness, Reflet/Robin and Lucina Amiibos sold out

 

[BriBri]

No Funassyi? That's pearphobic!

 

[theprodigy]

When are we getting sell-through %s this week?

 

[vinnygambini]

When are we getting sell-through %s this week?

According to hiska-kun's previous posts, Xenoblade's first shipment was sold-out with a new one received shortly after so we got our first one

But I don't know to answer your question, tomorrow usually right? lol

 

[ZSaberLink]

According to hiska-kun's previous posts, Xenoblade's first shipment was sold-out with a new one received shortly after so we got our first one

But I don't know to answer your question, tomorrow usually right? lol

I wonder whether Xeno X selling out of its first shipment was just something specific to that store or is indicative of anything more broadly than that.

Btw, according to Famitsu, Majora's Mask 3D is still the only new 2015 release for 3DS to sell over 100K.... Bravely Second will very likely be past that next week (if not already thanks to DLs), and I assume Style Savvy 3 will pass that eventually as well, as probably TTDQ. Any cause for concern though? The old evergreens remain (YW2.5, Smash 3DS, Pokemon ORAS, Animal Crossing: New Leaf - whose legs are ridiculous, etc.) really strong on 3DS though.

 

[Takao]

Disgaea 5:

Makai Shin Trillion:

lol

For those unaware, Maki Shin Trillion is developed by a bunch of former N1 devs. Rumor goes that NIS thought it would be a cool idea not to pay people.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

It's likely that Makai Shin Trillion will actually do better than Disgaea 5 did, which is somewhat interesting.

 

[vinnygambini]

I wonder whether Xeno X selling out of its first shipment was just something specific to that store or is indicative of anything more broadly than that.

Btw, according to Famitsu, Majora's Mask 3D is still the only new 2015 release for 3DS to sell over 100K.... Bravely Second will very likely be past that next week (if not already thanks to DLs), and I assume Style Savvy 3 will pass that eventually as well, as probably TTDQ. Any cause for concern though? The old evergreens remain (YW2.5, Smash 3DS, Pokemon ORAS, Animal Crossing: New Leaf - whose legs are ridiculous, etc.) really strong on 3DS though.

Could be relating to your 1st point, it's not a Mario title so I assume retailers are more cautious to not have excess of stock especially as JRPG's usually do 70-80% of their sales 1st week.

I'm personally concerned about 3DS HW sales; as I mentioned in my earlier posts, Q4 has already passed and retailers have still about 150-200k worth of 3DS HW in inventory from Q3 shipments.

3DS software sales are also a concern, though Jan-Jun are mostly "dead" months for Nintendo on the software side as they mostly target a healthy Sept-Dec release slate.

Style Savvy is going to continue to do great numbers moving forward - expecting 250k + LTD as should Mario & Puzzle Dragons, though like a mentioned at the beginning of the year, a far cry from its predecessor; I expect 450-600k LTD, not more, could be less.

Late June is where things get interesting on the software front with Fire Emblem If (bear minimum is 400k LTD), and the following month Youkai Watch spin-off & Ace-Attorney. Software should be good, but HW is not looking bright - the west will have to make the difference for the loss of sales in JP.

 

[LOCK]

Anyone know the digital total for Mario Kart 8? It's passed a million, I think.

 

[dakkumauji]

It's likely that Makai Shin Trillion will actually do better than Disgaea 5 did, which is somewhat interesting.

Probably helps its not releasing on the day where like everything else on the system is coming out.

 

[duckroll]

It's likely that Makai Shin Trillion will actually do better than Disgaea 5 did, which is somewhat interesting.

First it has to actually come out without getting delayed yet again!

 

[hiska-kun]

No Funassyi? That's pearphobic!

Sorry, I usually only take pictures of important or known brand games.
Frankly, I don't know why I took a picture of To Heart 2 lol

When are we getting sell-through %s this week?

It should be posted on Friday as always. Xenoblade X and Puzzle & Dragons sell-through will be TWO DAYS, including wednesday and thursday (today's shipment too).

 

[BriBri]

Sorry, I usually only take pictures of important or known brand games.
Frankly, I don't know why I took a picture of True Heart 2 lol



It should be posted on Friday as always. Xenoblade X and Puzzle & Dragons sell-through will be TWO DAYS, including wednesday and thursday (today's shipment too).

Ha! No worries! The game will sell shit and it is really basic after playing for half hour yesterday.

 

[Nirolak]

Thanks everyone.

Also, one thing I noticed is that Monster Strike Stadium doesn't list any in-app purchases: https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/monsutosutajiamu/

It's also not on the top grossing charts, so is it just using your data from Monster Strike?

Monster Strike itself went back up to the #1 top grossing spot, so I guess that'd make sense if you're importing your characters and people are buying more to use in the versus app.

I don't understand why it's a separate app in that case though instead of just a new mode in the base app.

Rovio is also launching a new Angry Birds game made by a Japanese mobile developer: http://www.rovio.com/en/news/blog/652/angry-birds-fight-launches-in-the-asia-pacific

It appears to be a Bejeweled fighting game that uses the Angry Birds Epic characters.

 

[hongcha]

Frankly, I don't know why I took a picture of To Heart 2 lol

To Heart 2 Dungeon Travelers sold over 60k LTD on PSP. I think the Vita version will do 10-15k FW.

 

[Aostia]

Could be relating to your 1st point, it's not a Mario title so I assume retailers are more cautious to not have excess of stock especially as JRPG's usually do 70-80% of their sales 1st week.

I'm personally concerned about 3DS HW sales; as I mentioned in my earlier posts, Q4 has already passed and retailers have still about 150-200k worth of 3DS HW in inventory from Q3 shipments.

3DS software sales are also a concern, though Jan-Jun are mostly "dead" months for Nintendo on the software side as they mostly target a healthy Sept-Dec release slate.

Style Savvy is going to continue to do great numbers moving forward - expecting 250k + LTD as should Mario & Puzzle Dragons, though like a mentioned at the beginning of the year, a far cry from its predecessor; I expect 450-600k LTD, not more, could be less.

Late June is where things get interesting on the software front with Fire Emblem If (bear minimum is 400k LTD), and the following month Youkai Watch spin-off & Ace-Attorney. Software should be good, but HW is not looking bright - the west will have to make the difference for the loss of sales in JP.

I wonder whether Xeno X selling out of its first shipment was just something specific to that store or is indicative of anything more broadly than that.

Btw, according to Famitsu, Majora's Mask 3D is still the only new 2015 release for 3DS to sell over 100K.... Bravely Second will very likely be past that next week (if not already thanks to DLs), and I assume Style Savvy 3 will pass that eventually as well, as probably TTDQ. Any cause for concern though? The old evergreens remain (YW2.5, Smash 3DS, Pokemon ORAS, Animal Crossing: New Leaf - whose legs are ridiculous, etc.) really strong on 3DS though.

I think that in your posts there is the answer to the 3DS sw question.
the games with sales potential sold, or are still selling. probably just DQT actually performed worst than expected. when the "selling" games will hit the market they will sell too, each game based on its own potential. 3DS install base seems pretty active, honestly, while the HW sales are not outstanding (even if on par with last year, that was the target with the release of the new model, for Japan, imho, while they were expecting, and are actually getting, an increse YoY in the West, with the N3ds) but more because of saturation than anything.

 

[Pennywise83]

This is a good question, and it is definitely a hard thing to assess.

That said, I usually look at their customers and judge by whether or not anyone notable finds their services worth buying, and how many notable people are buying in.

Distimo is owned by App Annie (an acquisition IIRC), and their clients include most of the biggest mobile companies from almost every region: https://www.appannie.com/about/customers/?_ref=header

Part of the reason for this is that if they're customers for the service, and they know their own data is wrong, they can have a large hand in helping correct that until the estimation models are quite good, since it benefits them by ensuring they get good data about how others are performing.

This is why I tend to default to their research more than others.

NewZoo also has a very strong client list: http://www.newzoo.com/clients/

Superdata is quoted a lot on the forum, and they do have a targeted base with quite a few relevant players, but it is certainly less expansive than the others in that it's a lot heavier on just traditional vendors: http://www.superdataresearch.com/about/

When looking at their data, I'm generally a bit more skeptical unless it's covering things their own clients are notably involved in.

Frankly, this looks even more obscure than before. Again, what is the reliability of these public data when tracking companies are actually paid by the same companies providing them data themselves? How are these data collected?

 

[L~A]

Today's releases {2015.04.30}

Thanks again for the pics

Cool to see Nintendo already had a second shipment ready for XCX. I wonder if this one will sell out too.

 

[AniHawk]

Probably helps its not releasing on the day where like everything else on the system is coming out.

and that it's on the vita and not ps4 (oh man only in a japanese sales thread does this make sense)

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm not sure how else you expect revenue data to be gathered on the mobile market if not from monetization platform providers. Nor without corrective adjustment of models via feedback from clients.

 

[Eolz]

Essentially, for Square-Enix, it was Tuesday.

I'm struggling to think of where this has netted favourable outcomes in the modern dedicated space. Or even where it occurs at all.

Isn't that what happens with remasters/ports nowadays for example? Lower development budget, and bigger focus on marketing?
Obviously, this kind of stuff happened with other kind of games in the past before, like for some sequels or small games in gen 5/6, when B-tier games were a lot more present.

 

[Pennywise83]

I'm not sure how else you expect revenue data to be gathered on the mobile market if not from monetization platform providers. Nor without corrective adjustment of models via feedback from clients.

The fact that there are not simpler ways does not mean a quite sizeable conflict of interest is not in play, in particular when these companies are new and seeking for funds.

 

[Mpl90]

Comgnet retail store chain: preorders stats / comparisons, as of April 30th, 2015.

[Wii] Dragon Quest X: Nemureru Yuusha to Michibiki no Meiyuu Online - 93pt*
[WiiU] Dragon Quest X: Nemureru Yuusha to Michibiki no Meiyuu Online - 59pt*
[Wii] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online - 84pt
[WiiU] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online - 72pt

[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai - 50pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 - 54pt + 38pt = 92pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai Deluxe - 45pt

[WiiU] Pikmin 3 - 17pt*
[WiiU] Super Mario 3D World - 19pt / < 19pt*
[WiiU] Mario Kart 8 - 75pt
[WiiU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 64pt + 32pt = 96pt
[WiiU] Splatoon - 19pt

[PS4] The Witcher 3: The Wild Hunt - 14pt

* = Comg preorder pts from 2012/2013
** = Comg preorder pts up to 2010/2011

Note: Comgnet's ratio between actual sales and pts has grown overall in the past year / years, and older preorder points are not as reliable for comparisons as most recent ones, especially if they are from years and years ago

 

[shinra-bansho]

What are you implying App Annie [Distimo] are doing exactly and to what end?
Best Buy, for instance, is both a source of data and purchaser of NPD Group data.

Monetisation platform providers are essentially the closest equivalent to point-of-sale in physical retail.
Having a broad coverage provides a more accurate reflection of the market.
Having a substantial client base who expect quality of information, provides incentive to provide that quality of information.
Client feedback provides a means of improving modelling.

Isn't that what happens with remasters/ports nowadays for example? Lower development budget, and bigger focus on marketing?
Obviously, this kind of stuff happened with other kind of games in the past before, like for some sequels or small games in gen 5/6, when B-tier games were a lot more present.

I thought the topic was around sequential entries in titles.

Essentially, with products you either lack confidence in or don't align well strategically, you're likely to reduce both budgets, or reduce promotional budgets [and accept development as sunk].

 

[sphinx]

is there a XBX WiiU bundle in Japan?

as one of a handful of games that could remotely be considered a WiiU system seller, nintendo would be dropping the ball with no WiiU xbx edition.

 

[Mpl90]

Remember the Gundam PS4 game that was teased back at TGS?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHhyC8M5cgU

Well, it seems it was Mobile Suit Gundam: Battle Operation Next, the sequel of the free to play released on PS3. And this is on PS3 too.

 

[Eolz]

I thought the topic was around sequential entries in titles.

Essentially, with products you either lack confidence in or don't align well strategically, you're likely to reduce both budgets, or reduce promotional budgets [and accept development as sunk].

Oh yeah, completely agree about that.
Sorry for the first point, thought that was a bit unclear (quoting on several pages, etc). Rarely happens nowadays, but we can sort of say this happened with Senran Kagura 2. Dev budget was way higher than Burst, but lower than SV on Vita. Marketing budget was really low too.
It's possible Bayonetta 2 was in the same situation as well, but for other reasons.

 

[Alrus]

is there a XBX WiiU bundle in Japan?

as one of a handful of games that could remotely be considered a WiiU system seller, nintendo would be dropping the ball with no WiiU xbx edition.

There's a bundle but I think it's just a regular black Wii U in it.