Someone earlier (I think Vena?) suggested a Smash Bros split for DQXI. That makes sense to me so I went and crunched the numbers. Smash is split 78% in favor of 3DS and 22% for WiiU. Let's say that holds for the PS4/3DS split for DQXI and it sells 5m copies, that means roughly 1.1m on PS4 and 3.9m on 3DS. Which makes sense to me. Though I think the PS4 ver. will be more popular in US/EU so the worldwide split will be a bit closer.
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Media Create Sales: Week 30, 2015 (Jul 20 - Jul 26)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Yes, that was me. And that is within reason of expectations.
Of course, it also depends on when the launches occur and if they really do occur simultaneously.
No one's getting carried away, it's pretty obvious how things will go. It's hardly disparaging to predict the platform selections here will end up benefitting PS4 base building efforts and software sales less than what most seemed to expect before the announcement (PS3/4 being more the consensus). The game's still hugely important on PS4 and there's no doubt it's going to sell well. I bet it's the best selling console game this gen in Japan, even ahead of FFXV possibly.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I more or less agree, but I'd say that the general number (LTD for 3DS + PS4) will be lower than that 5 millions mark. tone it down, keep similar %, and I'd agree with you
PS4 was pushed hard with the prelaunch holiday bundle though. It accounts for nearly a third of that version's sales iirc, so the day and date launch gets hazy.
It's possible differentiation may make the ratio go the other direction too in DQXI's case. I tend to think it'll help personally (driving a different experience and encouraging dual purchase) but with DQH the PS4 port was objectively superior and that's not really the case with DQXI, it's subjective preferences now.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
I know what the numbers are. I'm not sure what your point in posting them at me is.
sörine;173360334 said:
What does market size have to do with anything? His statement was that other systems peaked in "year 2" this generation, with an insinuation that the PS4 might do the same.
Wii U only peaked in its second year by virtue of releasing with 4 weeks left in 2012. A January launch would have seen the peak in its first year. The system was 13 months old at the close of year 2. The PS4 will be 22 months old. There's no real pattern to sales here, other than maybe the fact that Nintendo systems tend to be more frontloaded than others with regards to hardware sales.
Going back to last generation, Nintendo DS peaked in Year 3, PSP peaked in Year 5, PS3 peaked in Year 4. 360 peaked in year Year 5, and Wii peaked in Year 2. All of those actually were released at the end of the year.
Calamari41
41 > 38
Sorry to butt in..
When it was actually announced at the press conference, it sounded like it was pretty much confirmed for NX. I also believe that it would not have been mentioned if both companies hadn't had prior discussions about the it being developed on the NX platform. Like you said, it is Dragon Quest.
Exactly. That setting wasn't the kind of place for random musings on the NX. I'm not about to make some kind of wall of shame "guarantee" post about this, but I think what happened can be pretty easily recognized.
Sure, it's just no one ever really goes that deep into launch timframe for general annual comparisons. Unless they do an aligned launch, and even that's problematic.
I don't see why it's such a big deal anyway given most people disagreed with PS4 following any 2nd year peak.
Splatoon increases this week after an already impressive run. Wii U baseline has increased since it came out and now the console is up YOY on MC and very close on famitsu too and with Mario Maker yet to come, the console could well stay ahead for the remainder of the year.
PS4 is also up YOY and the system baseline has increased exponentially this year. Can the system overtake the Wii U in LTD sales by the end of 2016?
PS4 is also up YOY and the system baseline has increased exponentially this year. Can the system overtake the Wii U in LTD sales by the end of 2016?
Rather than trying to be all about the boogeyman, let's just look at the situation.
DQXI will most certainly help the PS4 and help it reach a better base for its other incoming titles to sell to, and DQXI will likely be the PS4s top selling release this gen (and may or may not outsell MK8, depending on marketing and release date... as I don't see DQXI getting a near 50% attach ratio on the PS4). This was no doubt part of SEs goal as they try to grow one base while serving another, and opening up western possibilities. However, we have to consider what has changed from when we had thought this was a PS3/PS4 title to now where it is actually a PS4/3DS title with differences in presentation but identical story structure.
The former, the PS3/PS4, would have helped the PS4 considerably more with a proper push because (a.) the PS3 has a decaying active consumer base, (b.) the PS4 is a natural upgrade path, and (c.) the enormous handheld base wasn't given an easy-out. So it would have been a good way to usher forward PS3 users into the PS4 and also snare handheld users with a must-have franchise. But, now that that isn't the case, we're actually looking at a scenario that will more closely resemble Smash and what happened with it. For whatever bells and whistles you might attach to one version over the other, the majority of the base is content with just playing the handheld version which better suits their lifestyle/gaming preference and also is content with not spending 30-40,000 Yen on another console for a game they already have access to and, for the most part, will get the same experience and story regardless. (However, on this point, read further down about what the DQH split also tells us, so its not quite clear cut how good/bad this move is for the PS4 at the end of the day.)
SE was in no position to put the title solely on the Playstation ecosystem it would seem, which largely seems to be about engine availability and limitations therein, as UE4 cannot run on PS3 or Vita, and they likely do not want to use or build any engine that can do it for all those platforms... so Phyre. In stead they elected, to serve a safe and large audience, to put it on the 3DS as well with version that, while not graphically capable, may actually end up being the more unique offering which... will entirely now come down to subjective views and nostalgia hooks. The 3DS version also demands considerable investment (aside from reusing assets) since it needs a dedicated engine and toolset for its games. I would not be surprised if we found out that Nintendo helped on the backend of making the development process for the 3DS version easier with engine tools already made for Smash/MH to truly push the system.
In the scenario of DQH, the PS4 version was 100% better in all ways, that is now no longer the case as unique features have been introduced. The DQH PS4 title also had a bundle to push it and heavy marketing targeting it. To some degree this shows that the consumer base will avoid adoption irregardless of the marketing and settle for what they have. And this was in a scenario where one version is objectively superior. If they had elected for a PS3/PS4 DQXI, we may have seen a similar scenario from the PS3 base. Its also highly possible that the successes of DQH were not what had been expected/hoped for, and that the 3DS version came into play later as the PS4 just couldn't gather the steam needed to justify a Playstation-only title. This is hard to say.
Given the above, I think that with the current release plans, we will see the last remnants of the active PS3 base/the Playstation old-gen base upgrading to the PS4 (I question how many will even be left by the time DQXI comes out) without given them an easy out. But, the change in platform expectations has given the handheld active consumer base (which is much larger than the PS3's active base) a reason to not need to buy a console at all. This leads to the Smash 3DS/WiiU split scenario where any real cross-over or double-dipping will be minor and the majority of the sales in either case will be to owners of the systems already.
So, as I said before, I think this will be a Smash-like split with a couple of caveats that may change things for better or worse ratios: when is the NX coming and out and when is the game launching? What version is the NX getting? Will the release really be simultaneous?
DQXI will most certainly help the PS4 and help it reach a better base for its other incoming titles to sell to, and DQXI will likely be the PS4s top selling release this gen (and may or may not outsell MK8, depending on marketing and release date... as I don't see DQXI getting a near 50% attach ratio on the PS4). This was no doubt part of SEs goal as they try to grow one base while serving another, and opening up western possibilities. However, we have to consider what has changed from when we had thought this was a PS3/PS4 title to now where it is actually a PS4/3DS title with differences in presentation but identical story structure.
The former, the PS3/PS4, would have helped the PS4 considerably more with a proper push because (a.) the PS3 has a decaying active consumer base, (b.) the PS4 is a natural upgrade path, and (c.) the enormous handheld base wasn't given an easy-out. So it would have been a good way to usher forward PS3 users into the PS4 and also snare handheld users with a must-have franchise. But, now that that isn't the case, we're actually looking at a scenario that will more closely resemble Smash and what happened with it. For whatever bells and whistles you might attach to one version over the other, the majority of the base is content with just playing the handheld version which better suits their lifestyle/gaming preference and also is content with not spending 30-40,000 Yen on another console for a game they already have access to and, for the most part, will get the same experience and story regardless. (However, on this point, read further down about what the DQH split also tells us, so its not quite clear cut how good/bad this move is for the PS4 at the end of the day.)
SE was in no position to put the title solely on the Playstation ecosystem it would seem, which largely seems to be about engine availability and limitations therein, as UE4 cannot run on PS3 or Vita, and they likely do not want to use or build any engine that can do it for all those platforms... so Phyre. In stead they elected, to serve a safe and large audience, to put it on the 3DS as well with version that, while not graphically capable, may actually end up being the more unique offering which... will entirely now come down to subjective views and nostalgia hooks. The 3DS version also demands considerable investment (aside from reusing assets) since it needs a dedicated engine and toolset for its games. I would not be surprised if we found out that Nintendo helped on the backend of making the development process for the 3DS version easier with engine tools already made for Smash/MH to truly push the system.
In the scenario of DQH, the PS4 version was 100% better in all ways, that is now no longer the case as unique features have been introduced. The DQH PS4 title also had a bundle to push it and heavy marketing targeting it. To some degree this shows that the consumer base will avoid adoption irregardless of the marketing and settle for what they have. And this was in a scenario where one version is objectively superior. If they had elected for a PS3/PS4 DQXI, we may have seen a similar scenario from the PS3 base. Its also highly possible that the successes of DQH were not what had been expected/hoped for, and that the 3DS version came into play later as the PS4 just couldn't gather the steam needed to justify a Playstation-only title. This is hard to say.
Given the above, I think that with the current release plans, we will see the last remnants of the active PS3 base/the Playstation old-gen base upgrading to the PS4 (I question how many will even be left by the time DQXI comes out) without given them an easy out. But, the change in platform expectations has given the handheld active consumer base (which is much larger than the PS3's active base) a reason to not need to buy a console at all. This leads to the Smash 3DS/WiiU split scenario where any real cross-over or double-dipping will be minor and the majority of the sales in either case will be to owners of the systems already.
So, as I said before, I think this will be a Smash-like split with a couple of caveats that may change things for better or worse ratios: when is the NX coming and out and when is the game launching? What version is the NX getting? Will the release really be simultaneous?
NX seems like shrewd way of covering their bases if the PS4 release underperforms. If NX is a handheld. And if it can handle UE4 ports.
That's a lot of ifs I guess.
Almost no chance for KH3 imo, but FFXV might do it.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
My early guess would be 4 million on 3DS, 800,000 on PS4. But things could change as we get closer to the date and have more information at our disposal.
2 million on PS4? The system might not even be at 3 million when it releases.
2 million on PS4? The system might not even be at 3 million when it releases.
cj_iwakura
Member
anexanhume
Member
Important to remember that PS4 had 300K and 60K first two launch weeks in Feb last year and PS4 is still up YOY on that. The console is growing.
yeah, I may change to just 1.2-1.5m in next prediction, but now I think if release date is late 2016 to mid 2017 PS4 can be 4m that time
That's very unlikely. PS4 userbase is around 1.5 million, and by the time DQXI arrives it will be around 2.5 million possibly. The SE game will be lucky if reaches the million mark. If they push a lot the PS4 version, maybe. However, as many GAFers said the preferences will be directed towards the 3DS version instead.
anexanhume
Member
It's fair to assume it will be at least 3M. It's selling about a 1M a year rate and it's fair to assume it will at least sustain that anticipating a price drop and healthy sales due to the very slow ramp of Japanese developers to the console. I would expect at least 3.5M through next holiday.
PS4 will be above 2.5M unless DQXI launches in the first half of 2016 (which I doubt given that it was just announced yesterday).
Flat sales from last year put PS4 around 2M by the end of the year. Given the sales trend so far, it's fair to say that sales won't be flat.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
sörine;173373240 said:
I think 4 million is possible. Yeah, it would be on the high side, but I think that the bottom screen bit is going to really successfully strike the nostalgia for a lot of people similar to say what New Super Mario Bros. did. That's something that Monster Hunter or Youkai Watch just don't have in their back pocket, even if they're at or approaching Dragon Quest level in terms of current popularity.
That bit is going to be the big wildcard, but I can easily see it managing to ride that wave up to around 4 million.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
In a pre-Splatoon world? It was almost a given. Now though? I doubt it.
BronzeWolf
Banned
What is this Langrissier thing?
Old SRPG series, originally by NCS/Masaya and usually on Sega consoles. The team behind those games left and formed Careersoft (Growlanser) and were eventually folded into Atlus entirely (Devil Survivor, SMTxFE).
It all depends on how much u mean selling gangbusters mean here.
If u mean, DQ on console will sold around DS number, then that is simply false hope. Especially if they really wanted to release both 3DS and PS4 version on the same day.
3DS version is going cannibalized many PS4 potential sales there. If u are talking that it probably will be around like Smash Bros 3DS vs Wii U number of sales than that is probably going to happen.
On the other hand here, the way i see the plan of S-E to release both version of DQ 11 on the same day feel a bit safe move compared to Smash Bros 4 tactics.
I feel releasing on the same day won't be able to increase the amount of double dippers as there are very little number of consumer who are going to buy the same game which also popularly had long play time on the same day.
However it will be able to avoid the danger of bad worth of mouth information if the game actually does not play well and had bad critics. As if the game is released like Smash 4, having bad reviews and bad worth of mouth for the 3DS version will caused the PS4 version to did worst while the opposite can also happen like Smash Bros 4 where the 3DS is greatly received which end up increasing the number of double dippers for Wii U version.
KillerMan91
Member
I think it's pretty much impossible to say how big KH currently is because it has been forever since last main game. I really don't think Musou is that good comparison. Since KHII release we have gotten gazillion musou games and couple of KH spin offs. Musou has been pretty much ran to the ground. It's not like the popularity of Disney has decreased either with Frozen breaking all kind of records in Japan.sörine;173363571 said:
sure was smart of capcom to not release sb4 on vita
not like every musou release on ps4/psv has always sold more on the latter or something
expected more from makai shin trillion, but it seems there are some big stock issues and apparently the game isn't shit, so it could have some decent enough (for CH) legs
not like every musou release on ps4/psv has always sold more on the latter or something
expected more from makai shin trillion, but it seems there are some big stock issues and apparently the game isn't shit, so it could have some decent enough (for CH) legs
I'm not saying Musou or WE are good judges for what KH3 will sell now, only that back at KH's height (KH2) it only ever did about as well as those franchises' peaks. It was never really that huge in Japan so it always seems weird to me that people bring it up in the same breath as stuff like FF or DQ. It's more in line with something like Metal Gear or Resident Evil.
Pokemon is dead. Yokai is dead. Long live Isabelle.
Kirby > anthropomorphic dog > dog > cat > rat.
Dragoon En Regalia
Member
Langrisser's floundering, not a surprise given it's just not a true series installment (same way as Millennium). I wonder if Shubibinman will be targeted next...
I am genuinely surprised there even is a SB4.
The variable are long time no see main title (offline) DQ, 30th anniversary, etc.
If DQIX can go around 4.5m, DQXI will be near that number.
DQIX was on the DS. It was still nowhere close to a mainline Pokémon game.
Even if it's a game like Pokémon Z it will sell better than DQXI.
Now this is an outlandish statement too, when neither Platinum nor Black 2 sold more than Dragon Quest IX or VII/VIII.
I'm not, SB3 was a decent seller and broke expectations. Basara just seems to have declined rapidly, like Musou but without the milking.
KillerMan91
Member
sörine;173384859 said:
I actually agree with that. I just think that being on MGS/RE level is till pretty ''big deal''. It's not like even PS3 got games that size every year.
Not FF/DQ "big deal" level though. Not a "king maker" franchise, not a multimillion seller (athough we could argue against FF here too now), most likely not even a milion seller even.
Basara 4 was also a steep decline from Basara 3. And this is a big drop from Basara 3 Utage.