Yeah. Like with the original Xbox.
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NPD January 2013 Sales Results [Up7: Wii U 57K (CNET), Vita ~35K, PS3 201K]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
H_Prestige
Banned
What parts in the Wii U are going to get cheaper, and how?
From early 2012:
What this graph shows is how responders feel about the system in question. The reason the Wii part is so big is that even though the sales were currently bad, the Wii still left a good memory for them, so it was still an attractive system for the responders.
Making Wii part of the name: Good
Failing to distinguish this as a new system instead of a $300 add-on: Bad
As mentioned earlier, it'd be incredibly hard to do well, but rebranding the system to Wii 2, at this point, should be on the table for options to take. Easy options are not going to turn this ship around, in my opinion.
Off-the-shelf parts that Microsoft didn't have much say in the prices for them, so couldn't effectively lower the cost. Not the same situation here. Agree that it's a little more nuanced than just "give it time" for the costs to go down, though.
Edit:
Oh, and the GamePad is not a fixed cost. It can drop in cost, too, just like the Wiimote did over time. (Hopefully drop in price a lot, but we'll see.)
DiscoJer
Member
The Atari VCS (Video Computer System) became the Atari 2600 about 5 years after initial launch, when they launched the Atari 5200
prag16
Banned
Seriously?
CPU, GPU, memory, storage, screen, wireless radio(s), hell, even the BD drive. And then the economy of scale benefits as you manufacture and sell more and more units.
I mean, are you being serious???
Saint Gregory
Member
Dude, you're too smart to make that comparison. MS couldn't get the price down on the OG Xbox because they didn't own the IP on the components. I can guarantee you that Nintendo hasn't made that mistake.
The components in the Wii U pad will go down over time just as it got cheap enough to make Wii remotes that they added the motion plus, the question is will the cost come down fast enough to save the product.
Edit: Beaten.
I kind of meant it as an example of how having what sound like commodity parts won't necessarily work out like you expect. As I recall, Microsoft started shipping larger hard drives partitioned for the standard Xbox size because they couldn't get the smaller drives anymore. And having a system based off PC parts and an in-house OS can have its own unforeseen consequences. Just having NVIDIA on board didn't really turn out well, and able to run a Windows variant ended up meaning pretty easy to also run a GNU/Linux variant too.
I'd hope that Nintendo has its hardware ducks all in a row, and planned the system for aggressive cost cutting over the next five years.
I also hoped they'd properly market the system and court 3rd parties with a new plan that would keep them on board.
And, if sales continue to be sluggish, neither of those things is going to work out. Cutting costs on ramped up production when you can't move your current stock simply won't work out, commodity parts or not.
But, like I said, not everything works out like you expect.
I'd hope that Nintendo has its hardware ducks all in a row, and planned the system for aggressive cost cutting over the next five years.
I also hoped they'd properly market the system and court 3rd parties with a new plan that would keep them on board.
And, if sales continue to be sluggish, neither of those things is going to work out. Cutting costs on ramped up production when you can't move your current stock simply won't work out, commodity parts or not.
But, like I said, not everything works out like you expect.
Byakuya769
Member
Today my law professor mentioned the Playstation 4 and the wii. I have heard several people mention the PS4. Only my gaming enthusiast friends seem to be aware what a Wii U is. A relaunch couldn't hurt....
metalslimer
Member
Doesn't a large part of the cost cutting come from consistent manufacturing? As it stands Nintendo might end up having to shut down factories while Wii U's languish in warehouses meaning costs won't go down anytime soon.
I wonder if there is the chance of Nintendo just caving and throwing a wiimote into the bundle. No matter how much Nintendo wants to think that it's all fine because there a millions of wiimotes out there, controllers degrade over time, and this also is a barrier for new customers. I feel like they could encourage more social interactivty by including a Wiimote into the box which would cost them nothing to do.
They have to wait until this holiday. A relaunch of the system at 250 dollars with Mario Kart and 3D Mario launching at the same time could do wonders. If they try and relaunch now they have nothing to back up a relaunch with. People would just ignore the console for a 2nd time and that would just damage the perception of the console. It could be a good thing no one knows what the hell a Wii U is because it might just be worse if people knew what it was and realized the release schedule was terrible for the next couple of months.
I wonder if there is the chance of Nintendo just caving and throwing a wiimote into the bundle. No matter how much Nintendo wants to think that it's all fine because there a millions of wiimotes out there, controllers degrade over time, and this also is a barrier for new customers. I feel like they could encourage more social interactivty by including a Wiimote into the box which would cost them nothing to do.
They have to wait until this holiday. A relaunch of the system at 250 dollars with Mario Kart and 3D Mario launching at the same time could do wonders. If they try and relaunch now they have nothing to back up a relaunch with. People would just ignore the console for a 2nd time and that would just damage the perception of the console. It could be a good thing no one knows what the hell a Wii U is because it might just be worse if people knew what it was and realized the release schedule was terrible for the next couple of months.
Drop the price $100 on each SKU.
Rename the thing Wii 2 (not like there's that many people to be hurt from that at this point).
Give ambassador games to early adopters and offer trade-ins for a small cost for those that just have to have the new name.
=>
Sales increase and the system is actually relevant. "Oh there's a successor to the Wii out? Why didn't anyone tell me?!?"
Nintendo loses $1 billion next FY.
Iwata resigns as penance (or maybe just steps down to take an advisor role).
vs.
Stay with current name.
Stay with current price.
Put out games people want, "but not at those prices. Ffs!"
=>
Move into GameCube level irrelevance.
Maybe come close to making $1 billion next year.
Iwata keeps job, but no one's happy with sales result.
Rename the thing Wii 2 (not like there's that many people to be hurt from that at this point).
Give ambassador games to early adopters and offer trade-ins for a small cost for those that just have to have the new name.
=>
Sales increase and the system is actually relevant. "Oh there's a successor to the Wii out? Why didn't anyone tell me?!?"
Nintendo loses $1 billion next FY.
Iwata resigns as penance (or maybe just steps down to take an advisor role).
vs.
Stay with current name.
Stay with current price.
Put out games people want, "but not at those prices. Ffs!"
=>
Move into GameCube level irrelevance.
Maybe come close to making $1 billion next year.
Iwata keeps job, but no one's happy with sales result.
ambientmystic
Member
For all of its shortcomings and failings (no actual console shown, no price etc), Sony's PS Meeting has already succeeded in one aspect where Nintendo has failed; to at least implant the idea that the PS4 is coming, and to get that pre launch hype/buzz started amongst the general populace. I got flashes of the PS2 era where Sony buried the Dreamcast with just the pre launch hype alone by extolling the power of the PS2 and its specifications.
I look at the Wii U, and all I can wonder is what happened to that winning advertorial strategy they employed with the Wii; the whimsical ads, the national exposure on Oprah. Nintendo's current feeble attempts to gain Wii U mindshare is just uncharacteristically feeble as compared to the gold standard they set with the Wii.
metalslimer
Member
I do wonder how far Iwata is willing to go to save the system. I know the last part was probably sarcasm, but he would definitely be out the door if they lost a billion dollars. I don't think a 100 dollar pricedrop would end up cost them that much though with all the huge things they have for 3DS this year.
Did Nintendo even try to get mainstream exposure for Wii U last holiday? I think Vita might have had more exposure in the media. Supposedly the election screwed their marketing campaign up though, although even after the election the marketing campaign they put out was terrible and inconsistent.
It wasn't sarcasm. If they really went to the floor to save Wii U, they'd have to throw out their $1 billion profit goal for next year and probably replace it with heavy losses, and Iwata would probably be pressured to or at least feel like he should step down for the profit failure. This isn't an either/or situation, though. There's probably some other paths out there. These seem like the most-straightforward ones, so here's hoping they can find a successful, less straight-forward one!
metalslimer
Member
Maybe it's coming, but I'm flabbergasted that Nintendo didn't announce their Pokemon version of Skylanders. I think that could have been a system seller honestly and they could have made a ton of profit off the toys alone. If I had to think of one way Nintendo could make the Wii U relevant now it would be something like that. They could even do some extras to go along with Pokemon X/Y. Nintendo's franchises have so much (for lack of a better word) exploitation potential that it amazes me Nintendo never goes the full distance with anything.
shinra-bansho
Member
CPU and GPU cost reduction presumably require process shrinks.
Generally economies of scale dictate price reduction of other components, don't they? Presumably things like the NFC etc. will reduce in price as they become more ubiquitous. Whereas features that are Wii U specific may not reduce much?
Is there anything from an earlier timeframe to compare as well?
Is it really beyond the pall to suggest the Wii brand was diminished due to inactivity?
Also, relatively unrelated but... what's SNS?
Generally economies of scale dictate price reduction of other components, don't they? Presumably things like the NFC etc. will reduce in price as they become more ubiquitous. Whereas features that are Wii U specific may not reduce much?
Does Nintendo detail the methodology and sample size etc. of the survey?From early 2012:
What this graph shows is how responders feel about the system in question. The reason the Wii part is so big is that even though the sales were currently bad, the Wii still left a good memory for them, so it was still an attractive system for the responders.
Making Wii part of the name: Good
Is there anything from an earlier timeframe to compare as well?
Is it really beyond the pall to suggest the Wii brand was diminished due to inactivity?
Also, relatively unrelated but... what's SNS?
metalslimer
Member
I don't know how much I trust Nintendo's studies after they came to the conclusion that the handheld business was not in danger from smartphones at all. At this point, it's pretty clear there has been a significant impact.
shinra-bansho
Member
Oh is it Social Networking Site?
I don't know how well that chart can really be translated into "brand strength."
I don't know how well that chart can really be translated into "brand strength."
It's part of their surveys they've been doing for years. The same kinds of ones where they show how many people have been gaming over the last year, etc. Don't think I recall 100% the methodology and don't want to get it wrong to undercut/overstate the usefulness of the numbers. Hopefully someone recalls better their methodology on the gaming population surveys and can post?
Edit:
Oh, it says something about the surveys on the graph. That's part, at least.
Think they said this was the first time for this particular question. It's from last June's Q&A session.
I'm sure it did diminish due to inactivity, but it also could've been much higher than this previously, if they had asked the question before.
Social Networking Service.
Edit:
Here we go.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/090508/02.html
Number of participants might've changed since 2009, but that should be the gist of it.
And never sell another launch product again because people will wait for the inevitable ambassador program.
BishopLamont
Banned
Gamecube dropped its price, didn't help out one bit.
I have a new column up today. I'd make a new thread, because it's kind of not really related directly to January 2013 sales, but then it is about NPD figures.
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/1872...crossgenerational_software_sales_analysis.php
Here's the first chart.
If y'all think this is worth a new thread, I'd be happy to start one.
As always, corrections and comments welcome.
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/1872...crossgenerational_software_sales_analysis.php
Here's the first chart.
If y'all think this is worth a new thread, I'd be happy to start one.
As always, corrections and comments welcome.
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/1872...crossgenerational_software_sales_analysis.php
Here's the first chart.
As always, corrections and comments welcome.
For what is worth, since GH3 isn't on that list, and it sold 2.72 million on the PS2 in 2007 alone, even the no. 10 is likely over 3 million. And, yeah, it sold most of its units on PS2, Xbox 360 and Wii, so they ended up split among generations.
Maybe not under 50 million, but I guess in the 50 to 60 million range, yeah. Still a huge jump to 100 million, which I guess is the point.
Bruno MB
Member
I don't know how reliable these US sales figures from Magic Box are, but this is what these 10 titles apparently had sold as of December 27, 2007.
1. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 9.15m
2. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 8.20m
3. Halo 2 - 6.67m
4. Grand Theft Auto III - 6.55m
5. Madden NFL 2005 - 5.77m (missing GC sales)
6. Maden NFL 06 - 3.71m (missing Xbox and GC sales)
7. Halo: Combat Evolved - 4.91m
8. Madden NFL 2004 - 3.95m (missing Xbox and GC sales)
9. Madden NFL 07 - 2.37m (missing Xbox and GC sales)
10. Need for Speed: Underground - 4.02m (missing GC sales)
1. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 9.15m
2. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 8.20m
3. Halo 2 - 6.67m
4. Grand Theft Auto III - 6.55m
5. Madden NFL 2005 - 5.77m (missing GC sales)
6. Maden NFL 06 - 3.71m (missing Xbox and GC sales)
7. Halo: Combat Evolved - 4.91m
8. Madden NFL 2004 - 3.95m (missing Xbox and GC sales)
9. Madden NFL 07 - 2.37m (missing Xbox and GC sales)
10. Need for Speed: Underground - 4.02m (missing GC sales)
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Let me tell you a secret. Do not use logic with him.
From early 2012:
What this graph shows is how responders feel about the system in question. The reason the Wii part is so big is that even though the sales were currently bad, the Wii still left a good memory for them, so it was still an attractive system for the responders.
Making Wii part of the name: Good
Failing to distinguish this as a new system instead of a $300 add-on: Bad
A couple of interesting things about this survey. In America, at least, it seems to be getting at, "What system do you own and like to play games on the most, and/or would you like to own and play games on the most?" The Wii, even in 2012, when it was completely dead, was still pulling roughly the same numbers as the HD twins.
On the other hand, what's the value in grouping every single system together this way? Surely they'd want to at least differentiate between home and portable systems? Also, why not ask about "Unnamed successor to the 360, Unnamed successor to the PS3, and the Wii U, successor to the Wii?" Hopefully they were polling about how much excitement they were building.
One last quick point - I'd like to see a survey of Most Attractive Console by manufacturer. I'd guess that the Nintendo brand has as much pull as the Wii brand, and they could have named the next system the Nintendo Whizbang, for all that it ended up mattering.
[Also - dat smartphone/cell phone! In Japan, already as attractive as the 3ds. DOOOMED
]GameCube didn't launch first, and it dropped $50. The PS2 and Xbox also dropped $100 right around the same time. Therefore after all the price drops, PS2 and Xbox were closer to GameCube's price than they were before the price drops.
Dropping Wii U's price $100 before this Fall, while catastrophically bad for profits and possibly Iwata's job, would put a huge difference between it and whatever the launch price for PS4/720 will be.
From the old NPD lists and keeping track, #10 is ~4m, and the whole Top 10 is right around 60m. Still not as much as this gen, but, yeah, clearly over 50m.
Agree with the article's point about the split this gen, though. It's is like politics now. The split is disturbing.
This is like saying Winning E3 would help a company win the holiday which is not usually the case.
Is the name that strong? It's been all but dead since the end of 2010.
It honestly feels like Nintendo is marketing this thing as if it's 2010, and Wii is still on top of the world. The must have forgot that two year period between 2011 and now where they released about 3 games for the fucking thing, and 360 took over the world.
I still regard that as one of the significant advantage Iwata brought in when he became CEO compared to Yamauchi management.
5 weeks of tracking this year instead of 4 weeks.
This. 3DS needed an $80 price drop during its first holiday, and unless Wii U wants to be engulfed by PS4/720, it's going to need a major price drop. A $199/$249 Wii U + Mario Kart + 3D Mario would look pretty good in comparison to $399+ new consoles.
Real pathetic that they didn't learn shit from 3DS launch, even after claiming they did!
Monty Mole
Member
5 weeks of sales (vs 4), also slimmer model has launched since then with price drop.
Thought it was a price increase to $270 for the lowest model of the new design?
Sho_Nuff82
Member
You are literally arguing that Harmonix, MS, and Sony can easily replicate the success of GH3, Kinect, and Singstar simply by try-hard.
Ya, it was a price increase. We all bitched about it at the time here. They upped the HD space and raised the price. Europe got a cheaper system, but we didn't.
Not exactly, because I'm talking about Nintendo replicating their own success not someone else's. They also have done it in multiple genres/segments which gives their ability to do it again more weight & increased probability.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I think the difference is that Nintendo's track record with this sort of thing brings a diversity of examples over a long number of years (Mario Party, Animal Crossing, Warioware, Brain-Age, Nintendogs, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Tomodachi Collection, Rhythm Heaven, Art Academy, etc). Harmonix made one type of game (to death) and Microsoft just aped Nintendo for Kinect (with a fraction the success and a fraction the staying power). Really only Sony's remotely comparable, but their casual successes have generally been on a much lower scale (EyeToy, Singstar, Buzz, etc) and mostly limited to a single region (Europe).
Probably around the same ratio, but half the total numbers. i.e. Old gen Top 10 (GBA) something like 25m and New gen Top 10 (NDS/PSP) probably something like 50m.
Exactly 4 of that long list are big casual hits, and they all came out within a pretty short time window. Nobody's questioning whether or not Nintendo had a hot hand 6-8 years ago. Their fingers were firmly planted on the pulse for a while there, but they've not shown any more inclination than anyone else to hit one out of the park with the casual crowd since Wii Fit.
Hoping they're right
Wii January 2013 Chart
Just Dance 4
Skylanders Giants
Zumba Fitness Core
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Mario Kart Wii
Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two
Super Mario Galaxy
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Just Dance Disney Party
Wii TTM (February 2012-January 2013) Chart
Just Dance 4
Just Dance 3
Mario Party 9
Skylanders Giants
Super Mario Galaxy
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Zumba Fitness 2
uDraw Studio: Instant Artist
Wii Sports
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
3DS January 2013 Chart
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
Angry Birds Trilogy
Scribblenauts Unlimited
Disney Epic Mickey: The Power of lllusion
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]
Adventure Time: Hey Ice King Why'd you steal our garbage?!!
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
3DS TTM (February 2012-January 2013) Chart
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Angry Birds Trilogy
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
Mario Tennis Open
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
DS January 2013 Chart
Pokémon Black Version 2
New Super Mario Bros.
Pokémon White Version 2
LEGO Battles: Ninjago
Mario Kart DS
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Plants vs Zombies
Super Mario 64 DS
LEGO Batman: The Videogame
Wreck-It Ralph
DS TTM (February 2012-January 2013) Chart
Pokémon Black Version 2
New Super Mario Bros.
Pokémon White Version 2
LEGO Battles: Ninjago
Mario Kart DS
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Plants vs Zombies
Pokémon Conquest
Super Mario 64 DS
Monster High Ghoul Spirit
Wii U January 2013 Chart
New Super Mario Bros. U
Scribblenauts Unlimited
Sonic & All-Star Racing Transformed
Zombi U
Call of Duty Black Ops 2
Batman Arkham City: Armored Edition
Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Illusion
Just Dance 4
Assassin's Creed III
Skylanders Giants
Wii January 2013 Chart
Just Dance 4
Skylanders Giants
Zumba Fitness Core
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Mario Kart Wii
Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two
Super Mario Galaxy
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Just Dance Disney Party
Wii TTM (February 2012-January 2013) Chart
Just Dance 4
Just Dance 3
Mario Party 9
Skylanders Giants
Super Mario Galaxy
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Zumba Fitness 2
uDraw Studio: Instant Artist
Wii Sports
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
3DS January 2013 Chart
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
Angry Birds Trilogy
Scribblenauts Unlimited
Disney Epic Mickey: The Power of lllusion
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]
Adventure Time: Hey Ice King Why'd you steal our garbage?!!
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
3DS TTM (February 2012-January 2013) Chart
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Angry Birds Trilogy
Kid Icarus: Uprising
Kingdom Hearts 3D [Dream Drop Distance]
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
Mario Tennis Open
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
DS January 2013 Chart
Pokémon Black Version 2
New Super Mario Bros.
Pokémon White Version 2
LEGO Battles: Ninjago
Mario Kart DS
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Plants vs Zombies
Super Mario 64 DS
LEGO Batman: The Videogame
Wreck-It Ralph
DS TTM (February 2012-January 2013) Chart
Pokémon Black Version 2
New Super Mario Bros.
Pokémon White Version 2
LEGO Battles: Ninjago
Mario Kart DS
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
Plants vs Zombies
Pokémon Conquest
Super Mario 64 DS
Monster High Ghoul Spirit
Wii U January 2013 Chart
New Super Mario Bros. U
Scribblenauts Unlimited
Sonic & All-Star Racing Transformed
Zombi U
Call of Duty Black Ops 2
Batman Arkham City: Armored Edition
Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Illusion
Just Dance 4
Assassin's Creed III
Skylanders Giants
For discussion:
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php
We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?
Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php
We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?
Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!