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NPD March 2012 Sales Results [Up3: ME3 Total, Binary Domain]

donny2112

Member
I'll inform the online division they have finally been put out of their misery. :)

KgpGF.jpg

Well, there are calls for that from some. ;)
 

donny2112

Member
If anyone is interested, my column is now up. You can see it here:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...cture_of_current_US_retail_game_landscape.php

Thanks! New tie ratios are much appreciated. :)

jvm_Gamasutra said:
and whether the industry is becoming, in the words of Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, a "hit-driven business."
Iwata_January-2009 said:
For sometime now, I have repeatedly said that the game business is comparatively less susceptible to the changes in the economy but the gap between what sells and what doesn’t sell become obvious (in an economic downturn.) The products that are listed at the top of a consumers’ wish list can sell at the same level in a good economic time as during a bad economy. But those ranked #5 or #10 on the list become the receiving end of the impact of the changing economies.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/090130qa/index.html

For reference, October 2008 was the big stock market hit and sort of the "start" of the economic problems, so this was about 4 months after that.
 

Road

Member
Thanks! New tie ratios are much appreciated. :)
Yep.

jvm said:
Based on what we know about the installed bases for each platform, a total of 309-312 million units of Xbox 360 software have been sold life-to-date... The Wii is close behind, with 304-308 million units of software... Approximately 172-174 million units of PlayStation 3 software have been sold so far in the U.S

360 total software now seems clearly ahead of the Wii. People can still keep arguing whether the same will happen or not for hardware sales. =P

jvm said:
In my next column, I want to take a broader view of the software market, with a diminished emphasis on the specific platforms and more on total units, new releases, and whether the industry is becoming, in the words of Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, a "hit-driven business."
I don't know if you check the MC threads and saw it, but this might help (look at the bottom where the inverted pyramid images are): http://www.famitsu.com/guc/blog/takapai/11476.html
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Happy to oblige with those figures. FWIW, I would put the Vita at 210K. That's my personal figure, based on everything I've seen. Also, ASP was only $267, down from $283 last month. If there were only two models ($250 and $300) then wifi would be selling twice as fast as the 3G model.
I don't know if you check the MC threads and saw it, but this might help (look at the bottom where the inverted pyramid images are): http://www.famitsu.com/guc/blog/takapai/11476.html
Could you tell me what I'm seeing there? Google Translate (and my very, very tired brain) are failing me.
Do the tie ratios for the Wii (and a lesser extent, PS3 and 360) include games bundled with hardware (system or peripheral), out of curiosity?
No. It only includes software sold as software¹.

¹ Where Wii Play is software. ;)
 

Road

Member
Could you tell me what I'm seeing there? Google Translate (and my very, very tired brain) are failing me.
The amount of games that sold x number of copies in the given interval, along with the approximate revenue.

2011

3298 games (90% of all) that sold under 100k for a total of around 800 million dollars.

325 (8%) between 100k and 500k, around $2.2 billion.

59 (1.4%) between 510k and 990k, ~$1.7 billion.

34 (0.6%) greater or equal than 1 million, ~$4 billion.


2010

4149 (91%) under 100k, ~$1 billion.

311 (7%) between 100k and 500k, ~$2.4 billion

51 (1.1%) between 510k and 990k , ~$1.5 billion

40 (0.9%) over 1 million, ~$4.5 billion


万 = x10^4
億 = x10^8
 
I would put the Vita at 210K.

Sony needs to work very hard...
Code:
NPD

PSP --> 500K (first two days)

PSV --> 436K (first seven weeks)

LINK


$100 price cut from $600 is 17%
$100 price cut from $400 is 25%

As you keep lowering the price by a set amount, that price cut will have a bigger impact. Had they gone $50 in 2009 followed by $50 in 2010(which would have had the % cut be more in line with the first cuts), then the curve would be smoother. I think the cut in 2009 just shifted sales ahead in the curve, it didn't actually increase the overall amount they were going to sell, which is why sales ended up dropping last FY despite another price cut.

With all due respect,you're totally wrong.

Code:
PS3 Hardware Sales (Unit: Million)

           CY 2011        CY 2010                                
                                                                         

EU          4.9             4.6                                      

US          4.52            4.33       

JP          1.55            1.59         
         ---------------------------         

Sales       11.0            10.5         


Shipments   14.1            14.4          



Source:(Nintendo,NPD,Media Create,Sony)


Shipment figures can be misleading in the short-term for several reasons.

Masaru Kato said:
Our products like PlayStation 3, the sales trend is quite firm, but it was nevertheless affected by the Thai flood. The destruction of supply chain adversely affected the PlayStation. So as is shown in your materials, we have reduced our forecast by 1 million units for the entire year.

Sony's CEO Discusses F3Q11 Results




Ongoing sales only includes the last 3 months? Why not make it the last 5 months and see where we are at?

Or shipments over the last couple of years

Code:
(Unit: Million)

    
      Global Shipments              US NPD

        (2010+2011)                (2010+2011)                                 
                                                                         

PS3   28.5   (14.4 + 14.1)        8.8  (4.3 + 4.5)                                      

Wii   27.52  (17.2 + 10.32)       11.6 (7.1 + 4.5)      

360   27.0   (12.1 + 14.9)        14.1 (6.8 + 7.3)


I just... wow.


Sony forfeits their market leader status over the course of a generation. Currently sitting 3 million units behind one competitor, and 30 million behind the other... but they are the market leader going forward?

Yikes... just yikes.

30 million isn't enough.The Wii has a higher income elasticity of demand than its competitors.Once Wii demand waned in the world's biggest markets, it hasn't been able to migrate out into emerging markets.



Also,don't forget the beauty of the market segmentation.

Code:
Global Shipments (Oct 2006 - Dec 2011) (Unit: Million)

  
  
        Hardware        Software

                            
PS3      62.0            568.1                                        

PS2      47.9            410.0
        ---------------------------
         109.9           978.1
 
Yeah just came here to post this

“Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning,” the first game from Curt Schilling’s Providence-based 38 Studios, sold another 80,000 copies in the United States last month, WPRI.com has confirmed.

That brings total U.S. retail sales of “Reckoning” to 410,000 copies during its first two months on the market, according to data provided to WPRI.com by NPD Group, a New York-based research firm.
NPD spokesman David Riley called 410,000 “an impressive figure for just two months, no matter how you slice it,” particularly for “a new IP” – a game that’s not a sequel but an entirely new storyline. Electronics Arts (EA) is distributing it.

NPD’s figures don’t include “Reckoning” sales outside the U.S., which would likely increase the total. In addition, Alexander Sliwinski of gaming news site Joystiq cautioned that NPD only counts physical copies sold. “That means digital sales of ‘Reckoning’ are missing, which actually has mattered more and more lately with EA’s Origin digital distribution service and the almighty Steam digital distribution service,” Sliwinski said in an email.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
JVM? Pretty please? :)
Xbox 360 = $269 (down from $284)
PS3 = $267 (down from $271)
Wii = $149 (up from $147)
PSP = $131 (down from $132)
3DS/NDS = ... don't have it written down for some reason
PSV = $267

The combined 3DS/NDS average I get is frustrating, but one makes do with the cards one is dealt.

Also, I was going to get to it. :) You have to be patient with me.
 
http://www.nintendo.com/games

Nintendo 3DS:

1. Kid Icarus: Uprising - 140k
2. Mario Kart 7 - 118k
3. Super Mario 3D Land - 100k
4. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
5. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
6. Resident Evil® Revelations - ~27k
7. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
8. Sonic Generations
9. Pokémon Rumble Blast
10. Tales of the Abyss 3D
 
360 still has the highest selling price. I wonder if we will finally see a price cut this year or if they are content trying to ride out at this high price for as long as possible.
 
360 still has the highest selling price. I wonder if we will finally see a price cut this year or if they are content trying to ride out at this high price for as long as possible.

IMO they will drop it to compete with WiiU this Xmas. Maybe Gamescom. Also the Kinect will permanently come down to $99 with a second game included along with Kinect Adventures or maybe two. I'm guessing Dance Central 1 and Kinect Sports 1 as standard.
 

Hammer24

Banned
Xbox 360 = $269 (down from $284)
PS3 = $267 (down from $271)
Wii = $149 (up from $147)
PSP = $131 (down from $132)
3DS/NDS = ... don't have it written down for some reason
PSV = $267

The combined 3DS/NDS average I get is frustrating, but one makes do with the cards one is dealt.

Also, I was going to get to it. :) You have to be patient with me.

Thank you my friend!

Seeing price parity from PSV with PS3/360 is... not a good business move, I´d say.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
http://www.nintendo.com/games

Nintendo 3DS:

1. Kid Icarus: Uprising - 140k
2. Mario Kart 7 - 118k
3. Super Mario 3D Land - 100k
4. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
5. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
6. Resident Evil® Revelations - ~27k
7. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
8. Sonic Generations
9. Pokémon Rumble Blast
10. Tales of the Abyss 3D

Let's post all the other charts, at this point

3DS Past Year Chart

Mario Kart 7
Super Mario 3D Land
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
Pokémon Rumble Blast
Star Fox 64 3D
SUPER STREET FIGHTER IV 3D EDITION
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars
Sonic Generations
Pilotwings Resort

So, everyone here did more than 140k, since Kid Icarus: Uprising is absent

Wii March Chart

Mario Party 9 - 230k
Just Dance 3
PokéPark 2: Wonders Beyond
Zumba Fitness 2
Super Mario Galaxy
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
Mario Kart Wii
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
Zumba Fitness
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games

Wii Past Year Chart

Just Dance 3
Just Dance 2
The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
Zumba Fitness
Mario Kart Wii
Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
Zumba Fitness 2
Super Mario Galaxy
New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Michael Jackson The Experience

DS March Chart

New Super Mario Bros.
Mario Kart DS
LEGO Battles: Ninjago
Pokémon White Version
Pokémon Black Version
Super Mario 64 DS
Plants vs Zombies
Shin Megami Tensei®: Devil Survivor 2
LEGO Star Wars III: The Battle For Bricks Just Got Bigger!
Monster High Ghoul Spirit

So, ToGf less than NSMB

DS Past Year Chart

New Super Mario Bros.
Pokémon White Version
Mario Kart DS
Pokémon Black Version
Cars 2: The Video Game
Plants vs Zombies
LEGO Battles: Ninjago
LEGO Star Wars III: The Battle For Bricks Just Got Bigger!
Kirby Mass Attack
Super Mario 64 DS

Seeing NSMB still the most sold game on DS...and thinking about the 2D one coming on 3DS...
 
Seeing price parity from PSV with PS3/360 is... not a good business move, I´d say.

Well we don't know about performance in the market for sure, we don't have any solid numbers for PSV, just forum members posting numbers and guesstimates. Things will probably continue like this. . . ugh.
 

Bruno MB

Member
http://www.nintendo.com/games

Nintendo 3DS:

1. Kid Icarus: Uprising - 140k
2. Mario Kart 7 - 118k
3. Super Mario 3D Land - 100k
4. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
5. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
6. Resident Evil® Revelations - ~27k
7. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
8. Sonic Generations
9. Pokémon Rumble Blast
10. Tales of the Abyss 3D


The future doesn't look any brighter for portable console systems :(

I would like to have a WW figure for Sonic Generations, it seems a constant seller.
 
The future doesn't look any brighter for portable console systems :(

I would like to have a WW figure for Sonic Generations, it seems a constant seller.

Arent the top 8 of those inside the all formats top 25, i'd say thats very healthy

And as for generations, On 3ds at least, still cant believe sega forgot to make a wii version
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
On 3ds at least, still cant believe sega forgot to make a wii version

"whoops, we forgot" -- no, they didn't forget. They made a calculated decision that the bottom fell out of the Wii market. They may have been right and they may have been wrong, but it wasn't an oversight, it was a deliberate decision.
 
"whoops, we forgot" -- no, they didn't forget. They made a calculated decision that the bottom fell out of the Wii market. They may have been right and they may have been wrong, but it wasn't an oversight, it was a deliberate decision.

Skipping the console with the biggest Sonic fan base dosen't sound like a smart idea especially after seeing the latest Sega financial news.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Also,don't forget the beauty of the market segmentation.

Why is it market segmentation to sell a older, cheaper, different piece of hardware (the PS2) largely to emerging markets but also price-conscious consumers in major markets, but not market segmentation to sell a complementary, cheaper product in a slightly different product category worldwide?

In other words, why combine PS2 and PS3, without including PSP; and why compare the combined PS2/PS3 to 360 or Wii without looking at the DS as well?

The fact that the PS2 still has life left in it in specific circumstances provides no assurance of Sony's forward-looking viability in the console market (it has no predictive power), it doesn't tell us really anything about the Sony brand, or how any future hardware will be received. It also doesn't tell us if or how the PS3 might have similar longevity in those pricing categories or emerging markets.

I do agree that Sony is better equipped than either MS or Nintendo to deliver consistent results in EEMEA and South American territories, but I also think your argument is a vast overreach of the data you provided to support it.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Arent the top 8 of those inside the all formats top 25, i'd say thats very healthy

And as for generations, On 3ds at least, still cant believe sega forgot to make a wii version

That was February.

However, I don't see the March 3DS specific chart, with those numbers, as a sign of the inevitable decadence of portables. I mean, neither DS obtained to fill the single SKU top 10 with lots of games, but lots of games sold under the radar, under top 10, with great sales through time compared to first months. It seems portable system have a much more pronounced tendency of selling games through time.
 
"whoops, we forgot" -- no, they didn't forget. They made a calculated decision that the bottom fell out of the Wii market. They may have been right and they may have been wrong, but it wasn't an oversight, it was a deliberate decision.

I know it was a diliberate descision my choice of words was simply making light of how stupid the desicion seems, the bottom hadnt really fallen out of the wii market there was just a severe lack of software released
 
That was February.

However, I don't see the March 3DS specific chart, with those numbers, as a sign of the inevitable decadence of portables. I mean, neither DS obtained to fill the single SKU top 10 with lots of games, but lots of games sold under the radar, under top 10, with great sales through time compared to first months. It seems portable system have a much more pronounced tendency of selling games through time.

Ah ok it just got a mention earlier in this thread, probably some site reporting old news again
 

Bruno MB

Member
Rayman Origins sold terribly bad on Wii (I thought it would be the best-selling version by a good margin), so maybe Sega wasn't so wrong not releasing Sonic Generations on Wii.

That was February.

However, I don't see the March 3DS specific chart, with those numbers, as a sign of the inevitable decadence of portables. I mean, neither DS obtained to fill the single SKU top 10 with lots of games, but lots of games sold under the radar, under top 10, with great sales through time compared to first months. It seems portable system have a much more pronounced tendency of selling games through time.

I'm probably a bit pessimistic towards the viability of portable console market, is that I'm so enthusiastic about those systems :)

It hurt me to see Resident Evil: Revelations flopping so hard.
 

vazel

Banned
Rayman Origins sold terribly bad on Wii (I thought it would be the best-selling version by a good margin), so maybe Sega wasn't so wrong not releasing Sonic Generations on Wii.
But past Sonic games sold well on Wii. Rayman Origins didn't light up the charts on the other consoles either.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Skipping the console with the biggest Sonic fan base dosen't sound like a smart idea especially after seeing the latest Sega financial news.

Again, I'm not necessarily saying Sega made the correct decision, but rather that it was obviously a calculated business decision rather than an oversight or omission.

But, Sega's case and yours are orthogonal. Sega, in making a decision about greenlighting a version or not, needed to project the state of the console markets a year or more in advance. Everyone knew the Wii was dropping off and would continue to drop off. Everyone knew that both the 360 and PS3 were getting more mature, robust userbases. There was a dedicated shift across the industry to start launching previously Wii-exclusive or Wii-targeted family content across all platforms. The question they had to ask themselves sometime in 2010 was: In Fall 2011, how much of an active userbase would the Wii still have?

To take an obviously ridiculous example, Sonic games sold very well on Sega Genesis. It would clearly be foolish to release a new Sonic game on Sega Genesis. This reflects the most obviously ridiculous example for illustrating the gap between previous software success and current software success (the latter is predicated on an active userbase). The Wii is, of course, not the Genesis.

One other thing I'd argue is that Sonic is a series that's generally a pretty consistent seller. Their business strategy is to make money long-term, over a few years. So Sega needed to not only project what sales would be like a year in advance, but also for the years after that.

For what it's worth, if the Wii version had sold a million copies full price and upfront, and cost nothing to port, produce or distribute, it wouldn't have changed Sega's loss into a gain, just lowered the magnitude of the loss.

I think their logic is sound. Their figures may not have been. I think you could pretty easily make the case that they could have done a port for cheap and got enough upfront sales to justify it. I think an ROI/longterm case would be a bit tougher. If Nintendo had done a little more to gracefully wind down the Wii in 2010/2011 (or if other third parties had not bailed quite so quickly) I think it'd be a different situation, so to some extent it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

...? The Wii version WAS the best selling version.

I only have November/December US data. For that period, Wii and 360 were tied (IE <1000 units separating the two). Not sure if the 2012 sales were better on Wii, or if worldwide the sales are more tipped.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
The future doesn't look any brighter for portable console systems :(
Ah, I forgot I didn't use this graph.
fsGlp.png

The decline there at the end is, I believe, entirely attributable to Pokémon launch last March with no correspondingly huge NDS/3DS game this March.
 

Pociask

Member
Judging by the current 3ds software sales, can we safely say Nintendo has a lock on must-buy-with-the-3ds-software? If so, are there any third party titles that could crack that spot? Right now, with Kart, 3dland, and Ocarina 3d, that's a pretty intimidating top 3 titles that I imagine are sucking up a lot of dollars. I think Ocarina 3d will probably drop out of the must buy, title, and end up selling more line with Mario 64 DS - that is, phenomenally well, but not one in the league of Kart DS or NSMB DS or a Pokemon.
 

Fabrik

Banned
Judging by the current 3ds software sales, can we safely say Nintendo has a lock on must-buy-with-the-3ds-software? If so, are there any third party titles that could crack that spot? Right now, with Kart, 3dland, and Ocarina 3d, that's a pretty intimidating top 3 titles that I imagine are sucking up a lot of dollars. I think Ocarina 3d will probably drop out of the must buy, title, and end up selling more line with Mario 64 DS - that is, phenomenally well, but not one in the league of Kart DS or NSMB DS or a Pokemon.

If Third parties want to really succeed on 3DS, they need new AAA IPs. I don't think any non-Nintendo existing franchises will work that well on any handheld. They need something new, designed especially for the 3DS and advertise it.
 

wrowa

Member
Actually, I think the decision not to port Generations to the Wii was mostly due to a lack of resources.

The Sonic HD team has never done Wii development period. Sonic 06 wasn't released on the Wii and Unleashed was ported by Dimps. All Wii-exclusive Sonic games on the other hand were made by a different team altogether.

So, who should have done the porting? For one reason or another the HD team isn't doing Wii development, the Sonic Wii team is probably already working on a Sonic game for Wii U (Given the past sales of Sonic games on Nintendo platforms, I'm confident that Sega won't want to bring its flagship franchise too late on this particular console). The only studio that's left if Sega didn't want to give the franchise to yet another studio was Dimps -- and Dimps had its hands full with Sonic Generations 3DS, SFxT and Sonic 4.2.
 
Actually, I think the decision not to port Generations to the Wii was mostly due to a lack of resources.

The Sonic HD team has never done Wii development period. Sonic 06 wasn't released on the Wii and Unleashed was ported by Dimps. All Wii-exclusive Sonic games on the other hand were made by a different team altogether.

So, who should have done the porting? For one reason or another the HD team isn't doing Wii development, the Sonic Wii team is probably already working on a Sonic game for Wii U (Given the past sales of Sonic games on Nintendo platforms, I'm confident that Sega won't want to bring its flagship franchise too late on this particular console). The only studio that's left if Sega didn't want to give the franchise to yet another studio was Dimps -- and Dimps had its hands full with Sonic Generations 3DS, SFxT and Sonic 4.2.

How much time and effort though would it actually have taken to port the 3ds version over
 
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