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NPD Sales Results For January 2011 [Up4: Analyst Data (Lots Of Games)]

sillymonkey321 said:
Can Sony really outsell 360 in the U.S. off the backs of the same games that have them in 3rd place now? This generation is so boring, it's just the same games every two years. And as soon as Sony drops price, Microsoft can do the same thing.

No they cant. MS will beat the hell out of sony this generation in the states. Worldwide numbers will be a different story but they will end up damn near even. In any case sony has something to prove in the US next generation...
 

Kasumi1970

my name is Ted
chubigans said:
There's still a $299 Kinect model.

Let me put it another way. For $299 you can either get a PS3 or an Xbox 360 with Kinect. Or if you don't want Kinect you can just get a 360 for $199. That's the bottom line.
you are wrong it is $199 4gb system...$299 250gb system....$299 4gb system want Kinect ......$399 250gb system want Kinect . The PS3 is $299 system and $399 system with move.
I have 3 friends that really big into the ps3 and they don't have move controller...when I ask them why they all said that they don't like the games for move.
 
I still don't understand this, can anyone explain to me why NPD gives the data out to random people and has no problem with them going public with the data? advertising/ what's the deal?
 

donny2112

Member
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
I still don't understand this, can anyone explain to me why NPD gives the data out to random people and has no problem with them going public with the data? advertising/ what's the deal?

NPD gives the data out to subscribers. Some of those subscribers put out reports that reference some of the data, with the caveat that the data belongs to NPD and cannot be republished without NPD's permission. Then people get the report and post it probably without obtaining the permission from NPD. =>

NPD gets upset and complains to the people putting out the reports =>

Less data in future reports
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
I still don't understand this, can anyone explain to me why NPD gives the data out to random people and has no problem with them going public with the data? advertising/ what's the deal?

They don't give the data out to random people. They give it out to people who subscribe (plus high profile media outlets).

These firms subscribe to the data, analyze it, make forecasts, and try to figure out the implications for the companies behind the games (e.g. EA, Activision, THQ, etc.). So in the course of producing this research they quote the NPD data.

How do you get the reports from these firms? Well, you have to do business with them. Or alternatively you subscribe to services that aggregate the reports (like Bloomberg which costs about $30k a year).
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
donny2112 said:
Just to be clear, it's good to get the extra data, and it is much appreciated. The previous post is just hypothesizing based on how NPD's responded in the past.

You make excellent points. In fact, mods, you should probably take off Wedbush/Piper from the thread title just to be safe. You don't want to advertise it.

The information is out there. Thousands and thousands of people access Bloomberg/Starmine/Thomson Reuters. Before the other info was posted for the games we were missing we already had 3 of the top 10 games and all three console numbers. It was just a matter of time before the rest trickled out.
 
That takes Donkey Kong Country Returns to just below 2 million units. It should pass that sometime in February. Probably already has.
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
donny2112 said:
Just to be clear, it's good to get the extra data, and it is much appreciated. The previous post is just hypothesizing based on how NPD's responded in the past.

Look at Gamespot:

Today, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter issued a note to investors that provides more color on NPD's report. In terms of console hardware, Pachter pegged the Xbox 360 as the top-selling system in January, echoing Microsoft's announcement of 381,000 units sold. The Wii followed with 319,000 units sold, according to Pachter, with the PlayStation 3 picking up the rear, having sold 267,000 units.

Software also saw declines in January, falling 6 percent to $603.1 million. And though it was the top-selling title, Black Ops was a heavy contributor to that shortfall, Pachter said, as it sold only about half of his 1.5 million-unit prediction (or 750,000 units). Nintendo's Donkey Kong Country Returns also vastly underperformed Pachter's expectations, as the analyst said the game sold just one-third of his 500,000 unit projection (about 166,500 units).

More casual console titles also performed below Pachter's expectations. THQ's uDraw sold "well below our estimate of 300,000 units," Pachter said.

However, it wasn't all bad news. Two companies that exceeded Pachter's expectations were Majesco and Ubisoft. The former was boosted by Zumba Fitness, whose fifth-place finish on NPD's chart amounted to sales of 300,000 units. And while Just Dance 2 only sold about half of Pachter's 1 million-unit expectation, the publisher's sales were still up 63 percent compared to the same month a year ago.

Is Gamespot getting permission from NPD to quote Pachter who is quoting NPD data? I don't know.
 
cjelly said:
But GAF told me they have been developing this tech since 2002.

Move will be remembered as a steering wheel. . ..
I remember all the Move hype. So much wind has gone from the sails of the Move movement it's not even funny.

Move will be remembered as the most hyped peripheral that flopped.

Paracelsus said:
It doesn't help that the original console Move is mimicking is going down by itself, if people are slowly stopping to care about the console that out of the two has arguably the best library for the remote controller then guess what happens with a poorly marketed clone with an absymal bunch of supported games.
Don't worry Gaf told me a few titles will have optional Move support making everything ok.
 

Luckyman

Banned
People are acting like Sony needs to drop price lol wat

If their software sales were declining then yes. But not anywhere close to that
 
CadetMahoney said:
I remember all the Move hype. So much wind has gone from the sails of the Move movement it's not even funny.

Move will be remembered as the most hyped peripheral that flopped..

I think if you're the kind of game that likes motion controls added to traditional controller based games, it's not a flop. It's actually been supported pretty well.

If you're the kind of gamer that wants new and original titles built from the ground up and experiences you can only get for the Move, you may walk away disappointed.
 
CadetMahoney said:
I remember all the Move hype. So much wind has gone from the sails of the Move movement it's not even funny.

Move will be remembered as the most hyped peripheral that flopped.


Don't worry Gaf told me a few titles will have optional Move support making everything ok.

Wasn't there something that sony released that said they sold 4 million move controllers to retailers? Yeah here it is and that was Nov. 30th and I highly doubt that was the last shipment. It just doesnt seem like there is a legitimate reason for this gloom and doom.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
RSTEIN said:
Look at Gamespot:



Is Gamespot getting permission from NPD to quote Pachter who is quoting NPD data? I don't know.
People release these statements every month.

I wouldn't worry about it, as they've done nothing to stop them the last six times.

They know that if they lock the data up too much, no one will subscribe since a lot of subscriptions are done to inform investors.
 

DeadTrees

Member
Pachter pegged the Xbox
xN7l8.png
 
TheExecutive said:
Wasn't there something that sony released that said they sold 4 million move controllers to retailers? Yeah here it is and that was Nov. 30th and I highly doubt that was the last shipment. It just doesnt seem like there is a legitimate reason for this gloom and doom.

Because no software is selling. Move software completely bombed in Japan, didn't really show up in any charts in Europe (in the UK it showed up but dropped straight out) and in the US it isn't selling much SW.

SW sale are usually the best indication of a platforms health (i know move isn't actually a platform).
 
sillymonkey321 said:
Can Sony really outsell 360 in the U.S. off the backs of the same games that have them in 3rd place now? This generation is so boring, it's just the same games every two years. And as soon as Sony drops price, Microsoft can do the same thing.
Well Sony lost the Move/Kinect war.

Their only hope now is that 3D becomes really popular . . . but I really don't see that happening. It will catch on slowly.

I thought Blu-Ray would be helping them a lot right now but I guess people are fine with DVD or streaming video.
 
AdventureRacing said:
Because no software is selling. Move software completely bombed in Japan, didn't really show up in any charts in Europe (in the UK it showed up but dropped straight out) and in the US it isn't selling much SW.

SW sale are usually the best indication of a platforms health (i know move isn't actually a platform).

Huh... fair enough that's totally true now that you mention it. I have sort of a rebutal though. 1.) as you pointed out Move isnt a platform and 2.) many of the games that support move are also standard non-move games. (I actuallly reallly appreciate games like KZ3 and Socom supporting move)

Makes it really hard to judge this by software numbers. In fact, the move controller is really hard to judge success or failure by any numbers.
 
speculawyer said:
Well Sony lost the Move/Kinect war.

Their only hope now is that 3D becomes really popular . . . but I really don't see that happening. It will catch on slowly.

I thought Blu-Ray would be helping them a lot right now but I guess people are fine with DVD or streaming video.

What are the numbers on bluray adoption recently?? I havent payed much attention. They have to be increasing though. Probably somewhat proportional to HD adoption albeit slower.
 
donny2112 said:
NPD gives the data out to subscribers. Some of those subscribers put out reports that reference some of the data, with the caveat that the data belongs to NPD and cannot be republished without NPD's permission. Then people get the report and post it probably without obtaining the permission from NPD. =>

NPD gets upset and complains to the people putting out the reports =>

Less data in future reports
There must be some permission for the subscribers to publish some data. Perhaps you are allowed to post numbers on your own systems/games? (i.e. MS can publish xbox numbers and sales of games they sell.)

To some degree, the subscribers pay for the data so they can publicly brag about it when they do well.
 
TheExecutive said:
What are the numbers on bluray adoption recently?? I havent payed much attention. They have to be increasing though. Probably somewhat proportional to HD adoption albeit slower.
I think Blu-Ray is doing fine . . . but people seem to have no burning desire to buy a PS3 for Blu-Ray. Perhaps they are buying stand-alone Blu-Ray players to compliment their xboxes?
 
TheExecutive said:
Huh... fair enough that's totally true now that you mention it. I have sort of a rebutal though. 1.) as you pointed out Move isnt a platform and 2.) many of the games that support move are also standard non-move games. (I actuallly reallly appreciate games like KZ3 and Socom supporting move)

Makes it really hard to judge this by software numbers. In fact, the move controller is really hard to judge success or failure by any numbers.

Here is a Gamasutra article from November. Not much Move required software on the horizon except Heroes on the Move. Not sure if any third party publisher has announced a move only game yet but I could be wrong.

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/31986/Analysis_Sony_Didnt_Move_The_Needle_In_November.php

speculawyer said:
I think Blu-Ray is doing fine . . . but people seem to have no burning desire to buy a PS3 for Blu-Ray. Perhaps they are buying stand-alone Blu-Ray players to compliment their xboxes?

Blu-ray players are dirt cheap now. You can get a good Blu-ray player with Netlfix and Pandora streaming for $99.
 
TheExecutive said:
Huh... fair enough that's totally true now that you mention it. I have sort of a rebutal though. 1.) as you pointed out Move isnt a platform and 2.) many of the games that support move are also standard non-move games. (I actuallly reallly appreciate games like KZ3 and Socom supporting move)

Makes it really hard to judge this by software numbers. In fact, the move controller is really hard to judge success or failure by any numbers.
i think it's fair to say that we can't say that the peripheral itself is a failure. personally i think it's a success. it's often been hard to find and i've certainly seem stores selling them at a decent clip.

i think it's fair to say too that it isn't driving software. people may be using it as an alternative and preferred way to play games that they wanted to play, but i don't know that a game supporting move is selling anyone on buying a particular game, in the same way that i think Kinect pushed software, (and the wii controller pushed software).
 
speculawyer said:
I think Blu-Ray is doing fine . . . but people seem to have no burning desire to buy a PS3 for Blu-Ray. Perhaps they are buying stand-alone Blu-Ray players to compliment their xboxes?
the PS3 was always more to blu-ray than blu-ray was to the PS3. that was only ever going to dwindle with time, because blu-ray players were always clearly going to drop in price much more quickly than the 360. 'and it can play blu-rays' is less of a value add now, than it was back when the PS3 was one of the best blu-ray players, AND the cheapest by far, AND a game playing device.
 

Canova

Banned
PS3
I don't think Sony gonna drop the price this year. Year over year number is the same, and it's only in January. The game line-up is great, there are more big games to come.

360
360 picked up some casuals, let it be. It's not the crowd I want Sony to focus anyway, heck if all the 3 big threes focus on casuals, I might as well quit gaming

Wii
It's Nintendo that has to drop the price, 30% drop is bad and no games coming out in the horizon.
 
Nintendo's doing a really bad job promoting 3DS, I hope they start picking it up soon or else they're not going to have a good launch. None of their launch titles are even available for preorder on Amazon...
 
canova said:
PS3
I don't think Sony gonna drop the price this year. Year over year number is the same, and it's only in January. The game line-up is great, there are more big games to come.

360
360 picked up some casuals, let it be. It's not the crowd I want Sony to focus anyway, heck if all the 3 big threes focus on casuals, I might as well quit gaming

Wii
It's Nintendo that has to drop the price, 30% drop is bad and no games coming out in the horizon.
As I said with the 3ds as their new premium product I think Nintendo would be more than happy to put the Wii as their new budget product
 
canova said:
PS3
I don't think Sony gonna drop the price this year. Year over year number is the same, and it's only in January. The game line-up is great, there are more big games to come.
of course they'll drop this year, unless they truly don't care about coming last globally.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nintendo's doing a really bad job promoting 3DS, I hope they start picking it up soon or else they're not going to have a good launch. None of their launch titles are even available for preorder on Amazon...
well, i can only speak for the US, but i think we were saying much the same thing about Kinect at this point.

you don't want to start advertising your hardware more than a month prior to release i don't think, not in terms of a big television campaign anyways.

i'm not sure why they're doing more in Europe to push the system though... seems to be generating a buzz.
 

jax (old)

Banned
My only take from this current NPD is the fact that kinect has well and truly cemented itself as a future forward tech. 2 games in the top 10?

Kudos.
 
canova said:
PS3
I don't think Sony gonna drop the price this year. Year over year number is the same, and it's only in January. The game line-up is great, there are more big games to come.

Most people seem to be prediciting that the PS3 will get a price drop this year, its just a question of how much (which pretty much depends on how much they can drop and remain profitable). Going to be an interesting year.

Im not sure that the game line-up is going to do much. None of them are very big sellers and most of them are sequels. I'm not saying they will do nothing but i wouldn't want to be relying on that line-up tp push sales.

canova said:
360
360 picked up some casuals, let it be. It's not the crowd I want Sony to focus anyway, heck if all the 3 big threes focus on casuals, I might as well quit gaming

I think it will be interesting to see if MS has any intentions of dropping the price of the 360. They have been much more reluctant than sony to drop the price despite making more money in this division.

I get the feeling they will try and avoid dropping the price at all, im not sure i agree with this.

Im also wondering when MS will show any new SW. GeoW is a big game but that alone wont see them through, and kinect wont keep selling on dance central alone.

canova said:
Wii
It's Nintendo that has to drop the price, 30% drop is bad and no games coming out in the horizon.

This is needs some perspective. They still outsold the PS3 and still sold the most software of the 3. No doubt they need to do something but i think it just looks worse because of the high they were on.

Whilst i think they will be preparing the successor to the wii the priority right now has to be making sure that the 3DS is a hit. Maybe a price cut on the wii can tie them over for an extra year or so.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
canova said:
PS3
I don't think Sony gonna drop the price this year. Year over year number is the same, and it's only in January. The game line-up is great, there are more big games to come.

360
360 picked up some casuals, let it be. It's not the crowd I want Sony to focus anyway, heck if all the 3 big threes focus on casuals, I might as well quit gaming

Wii
It's Nintendo that has to drop the price, 30% drop is bad and no games coming out in the horizon.

They will drop the price this year. The $299 Killzone 3 bundle is a pretty clear sign of that.
 
These Sony press reports are hilarious- the LBP Metacritic scores last time, now this

The Playstation ecosystem? I guess the PSP is global warming in that model

MS is sitting pretty right now. I'm sure they'll have more software to show throughout the year. Having two Kinect titles in the top 10 is incredibly impressive. I feel the Move will be an afterthought by the end of the year while the Kinect will be thriving.
 

Canova

Banned
Kagari said:
They will drop the price this year. The $299 Killzone 3 bundle is a pretty clear sign of that.

That might just be their strategy all along, the bundle strategy

- LBP bundle in January
- Killzone bundle in March
- InFamous bundle in June
- Resistance bundle in Sept
- Uncharted bundle in November
 
RSTEIN said:
You make excellent points. In fact, mods, you should probably take off Wedbush/Piper from the thread title just to be safe. You don't want to advertise it.

The information is out there. Thousands and thousands of people access Bloomberg/Starmine/Thomson Reuters. Before the other info was posted for the games we were missing we already had 3 of the top 10 games and all three console numbers. It was just a matter of time before the rest trickled out.

The thing is every month on Gamasutra it says thanks for NPD's cooperation with this article, that means to me they either give the numbers to Matt or they confirm to him that the leaked numbers are real.

Which leads me to if they are okay with mass-media publicly posting the numbers, why don't they do it in their own analysis? If the mass-media decides to do some article on Atlus is it okay to give all the numbers then?
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nintendo's doing a really bad job promoting 3DS, I hope they start picking it up soon or else they're not going to have a good launch. None of their launch titles are even available for preorder on Amazon...

new hardware launches are usually supplied constrained. I think Nintendo does not need a big push right now. the system will probably sell out for the first few months. what they need to do is make sure killer apps start releasing soon and then pushing those to keep momentum rolling.
 
Kagari said:
They will drop the price this year. The $299 Killzone 3 bundle is a pretty clear sign of that.

Maybe they are looking just to add value rather than price drop like what MS is doing. I still think they will price drop this year but the bundle does not indicate that in any way.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nintendo's doing a really bad job promoting 3DS, I hope they start picking it up soon or else they're not going to have a good launch. None of their launch titles are even available for preorder on Amazon...

It's not out for more than month.
 

bucklam66

Member
The 3DS all depends on how good the 3d is to the public, how will they advertise on television? If it doesn't match expectations then they are in trouble.
 

Naruto

Member
So much hyperbole in this thread. Sony and Nintendo doom and gloom? You know, last gen the 2nd place console would be luck to reach 150K in a regular month. now we have the least selling console surpassing that by more than 100K.

Say what you want about Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft - All three consoles are selling extremely well and are in a very healthy position. Microsoft are riding on the huge success of Kinect, Sony showing healthy numbers, hardware and software wise, and Nintendo has their huge catalog of mega killer ups and some key third party titles which had become huge hits(Epic Micky and Just dance), and selling 320K going into Wii's fifth year is an amazing feat.

The console business is in a healthy condition and all 3 competitors are enjoying it and have something to offer. But fanboys will always be fanboys so there is no possible way that 3 consoles could actually succeed. Everything has to be dramatic! There must be a loser! And that loser will lose so bad that the only solution left would be to exit the console race and admit defeat!
 
Naruto said:
The console business is in a healthy condition and all 3 competitors are enjoying it and have something to offer. But fanboys will always be fanboys so there is no possible way that 3 consoles could actually succeed. Everything has to be dramatic!
Well, they may all be making money now, but considering that Microsoft and Sony both dug themselves multibillion dollar holes getting to this point might have something to do with folks' gloomy view of the industry.
 

WrikaWrek

Banned
Know what would be really great now?

If MS used this success and momentum, and came out with some new big core games. Wouldn't that be wonderful?
 
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