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NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]

Squalor

Junior Member
First veratassin and now the Monty chap is banned. NPD threads aren't entertaining w/out some bans, GAF needs more entertainment, while we digest the numbers and contemplate how much more does MS need to do to get back this gen, other than buy EA and make Madden and FIFA exclusive to Xbox One
There's no number digesting tonight. We're starving, man:
feedme.png
 
I typed a long response, but it was about having 3rd party games as supplements so consumers wouldn't have to choose Madden & COD or Mario, but rather choose by exclusives, specs, features, etc. But it started to sound like the GC and/or n64...sorta. And they failed.

So...dunno. I'm not even sure why those consoles failed so badly tbh.

EDIT:
One thing though. I don't PS or Xbox or Nintendo loyalty is really a big thing as shown by the past few gens. So while a console may be"serviceable" if something better came, people would buy it, at least.

N64/GC really didn't get most of the 3rd parties, although obviously they're both a 3rd party heaven compared to the Wii U
 

Grinchy

Banned
I'm kinda shocked that TLOU was #1. I bought a copy, but I just didn't expect a re-release do to so well. GTA5 is going to rip apart the sales charts...
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I'm kinda shocked that TLOU was #1. I bought a copy, but I just didn't expect a re-release do to so well. GTA5 is going to rip apart the sales charts...

Well, when everything else is so low.... Haha.

Smart dropping it in July
 

x-Lundz-x

Member
I'm kinda shocked that TLOU was #1. I bought a copy, but I just didn't expect a re-release do to so well. GTA5 is going to rip apart the sales charts...

Personally I think a lot of Xbox only owners last gen who own ps4s now helped a lot. They want that naughty dog goodness.
 

Game Guru

Member
Unless you have kids, I don't see that demographic getting much into Nintendo. My kids are the only reason I have a Wii and am planning on getting a Wii U this Christmas. I have enjoyed plenty of games on the Wii over the years, but I doubt I would have gotten it without kids.

Exactly... I've been a Nintendo fan since the NES and even I see no reason to buy a Nintendo console for the type of games that a 18-35 year old male would enjoy when I could easily get a PlayStation or Xbox and be happy with that.

I typed a long response, but it was about having 3rd party games as supplements so consumers wouldn't have to choose Madden & COD or Mario, but rather choose by exclusives, specs, features, etc. But it started to sound like the GC and/or n64...sorta. And they failed.

So...dunno. I'm not even sure why those consoles failed so badly tbh.

EDIT:
One thing though. I don't PS or Xbox or Nintendo loyalty is really a big thing as shown by the past few gens. So while a console may be"serviceable" if something better came, people would buy it, at least.

Technically, neither N64 or GC really failed, at least to the extent that Wii U has. N64 got second to the PS1 and GC was only two million from second place. I'd argue that the issue Nintendo and Microsoft have is that PlayStation is just massively popular as a brand specific to console gaming. At the brand's worst, the PS3 still sold like more than 80 million and around the same number as the 360. At the brand's best, we got the domination of the PS2, the best selling console of all time. Sony had every reason to be arrogant in the PS2 era but ultimately, they were right about the loyalty of the PlayStation audience if the 80 million sales of PS3 are any indication.

As for the lack of loyalty between console makers, I think the reason why the PlayStation brand is massively popular is that Sony is much more of a globally focused company in terms of consoles than either Microsoft or Nintendo are. Microsoft's much too focused on America which ends up making their system attractive enough to the American audience to replace PlayStation in their eyes, but does not help outside of America. Nintendo's much too focused on Japan which ends up making their system attractive enough to the Japanese audience to replace PlayStation in their eyes, but does not help outside of Japan. Meanwhile, Sony not only focuses on America and Japan, but also Europe. Sony is very much at home at E3, Gamescom, AND TGS in that their system will have games that appeal to the American audience, the European audience, and the Japanese audience. Sony has a global focus which helps PlayStation do as well as it does.
 

Striek

Member
Boring old month. Standard appeal to pricedrops from every manufacturer, the (assumed range of) sales are pretty paltry overall.

Yes! It deserves every sale, hopefully it can top 10million sales with the PS4 version.

I would expect it to comfortably get there. Might end up around 8 million on PS3 and 2.5-4 on PS4.
 
So...dunno. I'm not even sure why those consoles failed so badly tbh.

A multitude of factors; incompatible software ecosystems (with 5th/6th gen 3rd party pubs), confusing marketing (this vs this), unclear branding ("Is this for kids or older people??"), and alienating hardware design (complicated controller, cartridges, purple lunch box/purse aesthetic, mini disc). I'm sure there are more, but these are the few that pop into my head at the moment.
The WiiU and even the 3DS share most of these problems with the NGC/N64 while the successful Wii/DS/NES/SNES/GB/GBC/GBA never really had any of these issues.
 

Krilekk

Banned
So has anybody done the math yet? PS4 + X1 = 1.8 * (PS3 + 360) for the first nine months. We know next gen numbers after eight months, somebody put in the last gen numbers and we're golden.
 

Chobel

Member
So has anybody done the math yet? PS4 + X1 = 1.8 * (PS3 + 360) for the first nine months. We know next gen numbers after eight months, somebody put in the last gen numbers and we're golden.

Yeah, Shinra did that. It gives us PS4+XBO = ~384K

I couldn't sleep
 

donny2112

Member
Okay, we have from shinra's PR math that PS4 + XB1 was 384K, along with confirmation.
We have the below inequality equations.

XB1 + 360 < PS4
XB1 + WiU < PS4 + PS3

From that we assume

XB1 + WIU > PS4

WIU was calculated to be ~81K.

We also have confirmation that the GAF Aggregate Predictions were "good" and that PS4 is #1.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jul-2014

1. PS4 - 221K
2. XB1 - 131K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. WIU - 90K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K

Let's assume the aggregate numbers are perfect after replacing WIU with 81K. Does that fit the above equations?

XB1 (131K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (221K) true
XB1 (131K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (221K) + PS3 (34K) true

(assumed) XB1 (131K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (221K) false

XB1 (131K) + PS4 (221K) = 384K false

Okay, not perfect, but a start. We are assuming that the difference between PS4 and XB1 is < WIU, so let's go with that and see what we get.

(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 80K
PS4 + XB1 = 384K

Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 232K and XB1 would be 152K. That's the min XB1 number. Highest?

(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 2K (since the total is an even number, the diff has to be an even number)
PS4 + XB1 = 384K

Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 193K and XB1 would be 191K.

PS4 between 193K and 232K (probably near high end of range)
XB1 between 152K and 191K (probably near low end of range or else the PR would be different)

So let's go with PS4 ~222K and XB1 ~162K. Does that now works with the above equations?

XB1 (162K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (222K) true
XB1 (162K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (222K) + PS3 (34K) true

(assumed) XB1 (162K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (222K) true

XB1 (162K) + PS4 (222K) = 384K true

Okay, so that works, so let's see how that lays out.

Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 222K
2. XB1 - 162K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K


Hey, it's something! :lol

Edit:
Oh, yeah, Vita is confirmed < 17K, too.

----------------------------------------------
Part of OP below, but it was wrong. Just keeping it for reference.
Didn't work, and in fact, none of the ranges work with the above PS360 hardware values. Therefore, the PS360 hardware values would seem to be in error. In fact, we'd have to have PS3 > 360 to make the above work, so let's try switching the PS3 and 360 numbers and using the min XB1 range.

XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) < PS4 (232K) true
XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (232K) + PS3 (48K) true

(assumed) XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (232K) true

XB1 (152K) + PS4 (2321K) = 384K true

That at least fits everything, so let's try working off that.
 

NolbertoS

Member
Okay, we have from shinra's PR math that PS4 + XB1 was 384K, along with confirmation.
We have the below inequality equations.

XB1 + 360 < PS4
XB1 + 360 + WiU < PS4 + PS3

From that we assume

XB1 + 360 + WIU > PS4

WIU was calculated to be ~81K.

We also have confirmation that the GAF Aggregate Predictions were "good" and that PS4 is #1.


Let's assume the aggregate numbers are perfect after replacing WIU with 81K. Does that fit the above equations?

XB1 (131K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (221K) true
XB1 (131K) + 360 (48K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (221K) + PS3 (34K) true

(assumed) XB1 (131K) + 360 (48K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (221K) true

XB1 (131K) + PS4 (221K) = 384K false

Okay, not perfect, but a start. We are assuming that the difference between PS4 and XB1 is < WIU, so let's go with that and see what we get.

(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 80K
PS4 + XB1 = 384K

Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 232K and XB1 would be 152K. That's the min XB1 number. Highest?

(assumed) PS4 - XB1 < 81K
(guess) PS4 - XB1 = 2K (since the total is an even number, the diff has to be an even number)
PS4 + XB1 = 384K

Two equations, two unknowns ... PS4 would be 193K and XB1 would be 191K.

PS4 between 193K and 232K (probably near high end of range)
XB1 between 152K and 191K (probably near low end of range or else the PR would be different)

So let's go with PS4 ~222K and XB1 ~162K. Does that now works with the above equations?

XB1 (162K) + 360 (48K) < PS4 (222K) true
XB1 (162K) + 360 (48K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (222K) + PS3 (34K) false

(assumed) XB1 (162K) + 360 (48K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (222K) true

XB1 (162K) + PS4 (222K) = 384K true


Didn't work, and in fact, none of the ranges work with the above PS360 hardware values. Therefore, the PS360 hardware values would seem to be in error. In fact, we'd have to have PS3 > 360 to make the above work, so let's try switching the PS3 and 360 numbers and using the min XB1 range.

XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) < PS4 (232K) true
XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) < PS4 (232K) + PS3 (48K) true

(assumed) XB1 (152K) + 360 (34K) + WIU (81K) > PS4 (232K) true

XB1 (152K) + PS4 (2321K) = 384K true

That at least fits everything, so let's try working off that.

Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 232K
2. XB1 - 152K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. PS3 - 48K
6. 360 - 34K


Hey, it's something! :lol

You rock at math. Extra-polating FTW. Most Economists and I'm sure NPD, uses Non-Linear Regression and tries to come up with variables for everything from the market, people's median incomes, marketability, etc. your equation is a good guess without going complex :p
 
Technically, neither N64 or GC really failed, at least to the extent that Wii U has. N64 got second to the PS1 and GC was only two million from second place..

Hmmmm...I don't know if I can agree with that.
The N64 was a complete failure in Japan (only selling around 5 million units; a huge drop off from the SNES's 17 million), it never managed to gain back any ground that the Genesis had stolen from the NES or improve on the NES's NA numbers despite being more western focused (The SNES and N64's NA LTD is around a stagnant 20 mill while the NES was around 34 million), and it failed to stop the new-comer console from completely dominating it. I feel that you kind of have to do a bit of stretching to make the N64 sound like a successful console in any area that doesn't involve software.

The NGC...well...do we really need to debate on that? Iwata has pretty much flat out admitted that it was a failure in almost every respect, and he never wanted to see the company in that position again.
:/
 
Still no concrete numbers?

I think one of your inequalities is off donny, it's not XBO+360+WIU < PS4+PS3, it's just XBO+WIU.

Need an additional constraint around the last gen systems to get a proper estimation I think.
 

donny2112

Member
Yeah sorry, not buying the PS3>360 jump.

If the 81K Wii U number is actually too high or if the PS4-XB1 difference is actually > Wii U, 360 might eek out a win over PS3. Otherwise, PS3 would have to be over 360 to fit the below equations, unless I missed something.
Hopefully this gives enough impetus to get more creatively minded math and science goddesses going... :)

XB1 + 360 + WiU < PS4 + PS3
(assumed) XB1 + 360 + WIU > PS4
XB1 + PS4 = 384K
 
Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 232K
2. XB1 - 152K
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. PS3 - 48K
6. 360 - 34K


Hey, it's something! :lol

Edit:
Oh, yeah, Vita is confirmed < 17K, too.


If we take "strong and steady pace" MS PR to mean same weekly average as last month, a 5 to 4 week change would be

June XB1 = 197k to July XB1 = 158k

That's all I got.
 

GYNGA

Member
Wait, why PS4 is before PS3 near TLOU in the chart? Does that mean Rematered already outsold last-gen version? Or is it an error?
 

libregkd

Member
Wait, why PS4 is before PS3 near TLOU in the chart? Does that mean Rematered already outsold last-gen version? Or is it an error?
It means for the month of July, the PS4 version sold more than the PS3 version. It's not a comparison between LTD of the two.
 
These are the numbers I guestimate using the constraints we have and/or are assuming/inferring (i.e. XBO + Wii U > PS4).

PS4 - 232.5K
XBO - 151.5K
WIU - 81K (as a constant in these estimations)
360 - 81K
PS3 - 40.5K

These numbers should fit those inequalities.

But we need more info really.
 

donny2112

Member
As per Cream Sugar

Xbox family < PS4
WiiU + XB1 < PS4 + PS3

Yep, so that makes the first pass guess after figuring out the ranges for PS4 and XB1 (ranges are still good) work. Going with that instead, then. :)

Back-of-the-envelope Guesses, except for Wii U
1. PS4 - 222K (193K-232K)
2. XB1 - 162K (152K-191K)
3. 3DS - 108K
4. Wii U - 81K
5. 360 - 48K
6. PS3 - 34K
7. PSV - 16K
 

Absolut

Neo Member
Yeah there is no way PS3 was above 360.

From Microsofts PR it seems their weekly sales (XO) are very similar to June.

That would mean for June 197 / 5 = 39,4k /week

For July that would mean 39,4 x 4 = 157,6k

That would mean PS4 384 - 157,6 = 226,4k for July

Sorry if that's been posted already.
 
So with all we know (PS4+XBO is around 384k, Wii U at 81K, XBO+Wii U > PS4, PS4 > XBO), we can create a few ranges.

If we simply say they were even, we get that the XBO and PS4 sold 191,999 and 192,001 respectively. This would represent the absolute minimum possible sales for PS4 and absolute maximum sales possible in the range for XBO, and would require the PS3 to of outsold the Wii U.

If we assume the PS3 sold 0 units, that places the PS4 at 232.5k for it's absolute maximum and XBO at 151.5k for it's absolute minimum. Obviously figures close to either of these extremes are unlikely so it's probably somewhere in the middle. My guess would probably be about 170k XBO, 214k PS4.
 

donny2112

Member
These numbers should fit those inequalities.

But we need more info really.

Yeah, the main difference is that we got a "good" description for the aggregate numbers in the prediction thread from someone who would know, so going with those values straight out. 81K for 360 in July doesn't fit the monthly trends.
 
These are the numbers I guestimate using the constraints we have and/or are assuming/inferring (i.e. XBO + Wii U > PS4).

PS4 - 232.5K
XBO - 151.5K
WIU - 81K (as a constant in these estimations)
360 - 81K
PS3 - 40.5K

These numbers should fit those inequalities.

But we need more info really.

360 estimate seems a bit high. Others are plausible
 

Guerrilla

Member
So with all we know (PS4+XBO is around 384k, Wii U at 81K, XBO+Wii U > PS4, PS4 > XBO), we can create a few ranges.

If we simply say they were even, we get that the XBO and PS4 sold 191,999 and 192,001 respectively. This would represent the absolute minimum possible sales for PS4 and absolute maximum sales possible in the range for XBO, and would require the PS3 to of outsold the Wii U.

If we assume the PS3 sold 0 units, that places the PS4 at 232.5k for it's absolute maximum and XBO at 151.5k for it's absolute minimum. Obviously figures close to either of these extremes are unlikely so it's probably somewhere in the middle. My guess would probably be about 170k XBO, 214k PS4.

Well wouldn't that be actually kind of a good result for the xb1 in comparison to the ps4?
 
Where did people get XBO + 360 + Wii U < PS4 + PS3? Playstation was the highest selling console brand this month. That doesn't necessarily mean PS4 + PS3 > 50% of all console sales. It means PS4 + PS3 > Wii U (which we knew already) and PS4 + PS3 > Xbox One + 360.
 

StoopKid

Member
Where did people get XBO + 360 + Wii U < PS4 + PS3? Playstation was the highest selling console brand this month. That doesn't necessarily mean PS4 + PS3 > 50% of all console sales. It means PS4 + PS3 > Wii U (which we knew already) and PS4 + PS3 > Xbox One + 360.

nope crem said ps4 > xbone + 360
 
Yeah, the main difference is that we got a "good" description for the aggregate numbers in the prediction thread from someone who would know, so going with those values straight out. 81K for 360 in July doesn't fit the monthly trends.
Ah I missed that part.

If you straight out use the GAF aggregate numbers for the 360 and PS3, then plugging these into Excel Solver, gives me 216K for the PS4 and 169K for the XBO. Edit, actually on further inspection it says there's no feasible solution, so those numbers have to be off somewhat.

I guess we'll just have to wait for something more concrete to leak.
 
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