• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Official Feb NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
S

sonycowboy

Member
DenogginizerOS said:
Will we get the numbers before other websites/news sites have them?
Click to expand...

I'll have an official response to this very soon, as well as some background on the various reasons for the timing of the releases.
 
K

kenta

Has no PEINS
I hope VF5 does well, I was honestly shocked by how many people on my friends list were playing it
 
S

Saitou

Banned
S8 RoXoRz said:
360: 450k
Wii: 350k
PS3: 200k
Click to expand...
s8roxorzcodegeasshn2.gif


I'll have an official response to this very soon, as well as some background on the various reasons for the timing of the releases.
Click to expand...
As long as it isn't the delayfest it was last month, that led to all those threads filled with nonsense and fear, it's all good.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
I'd have had never seen this thread up here, if someone else hadn't mentioned that it was stickied.

It took these guys 5 months to recognize that the 360 was holding steady at 50k a week. They're finally catching on. Though I don't think it'll be an accurate method for predicting this month, since they seem to round to the nearest 50k I can't dispute them. Personally, I think my predictions are a bit less likely but I've some theories...

My Predictions:
Wii- 384,000
NDS - 364,000
PS2 - 260,000
PS3 - 230,000
360 - 228,000
PSP - 180,000
GBA - 150,000
GCN - 25,000
XBX - 600



Last month's Hardware: (Taken from the Official GAF Thread)
Playstation 2 - 299k
Xbox --
Gamecube - 34k
Xbox 360 - 294k
Playstation 3 - 244k
Wii - 436k
GBA - 179k
Nintendo DS - 239k
PSP - 211k
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
JJConrad said:
It took these guys 5 months to recognize that the 360 was holding steady at 50k a week.
Click to expand...

They probably kept overlooking the fact that it's priced at double what the Xbox 1 was selling for at this point. There is not going to be any sales explosions for $400-$600 consoles any time soon, not unless consumers start going nuts over the non-gaming functions.
 
S

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
It's bad to say this, but things can only get worse for the PS3 over the next few months. I don't think they have anything coming out worth a crap over summer. It also looks like the 360 will just ho-hum along, but I'm sure MS would rather ho-hum then crash and burn. The Wii sells and it seems demand still has not caught supply.

PREDICTIONS
Wii: 322k (or by the beard of Zeus I will strike down their production facilities for sucking)
DS: 300k (why must the big N make the beard angry?)
360: 236k (ho-hum here we come)
PS2: 218k (Thank you for allowing Sony to talk about the power of their brand)
PS3: 196k (good to have supply available on every shelf....err, we're still supply constrained)
PSP: 175k (solid considering)
GCN: 10k (Nintendo sends letter to Sony outlining the performance of the GCN overlayed on the performance of the PS3. Claims Sony is once again trying to copy them.)
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
squatingyeti said:
It's bad to say this, but things can only get worse for the PS3 over the next few months. I don't think they have anything coming out worth a crap over summer. It also looks like the 360 will just ho-hum along, but I'm sure MS would rather ho-hum then crash and burn. The Wii sells and it seems demand still has not caught supply.
Click to expand...

You mean except for the last two weeks of February through the end of March.

VF5, F1, Motorstorm, Oblivion (late, I know), & Armored Core 4 (?)

The "summer" are still up in the air. We just don't know what's going to hit when. We'll have to see what effect the second wind of games can do. I agree that without a HW price drop, it's going to be very tough slogging for Sony.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Baker said:
PS3: 300k
360: 200k
Wii: 100k

Not my bias, but considering enough came out for the PS3 to force me to buy one, I'm giving them February in the console race. Wii will probably end up higher, but I've had a running bet with a buddy that it will be 100k or less so I'm sticking to my guns.
Click to expand...

I hope you didn't bet that much.

Titles over 100k
Wii Sonic and the Secret Rings ~130k
Wii Wii Play ~250k
PS3 Virtua Fighter 5 ~ 100k (this one is going to bite me in the ass, though I'm hopeful)
360 Crackdown ~ 500k
360 Gears of War ~100k (Combined)
DS Diddy Kong Racing ~150k
DS New Super Mario Bros ~125k
Wii/GCN Zelda: Twilight Princess ~ 170k

Titles <100k
Wii Zelda: Twilight Princess ~ 90k
PS3 Resistence: Fall of Man ~75k
GCN Zelda Twilight Princess ~80k
360 Lost Planet: Extreme Condition ~80k
DS Yoshi's Island DS ~ 75k
DS A **** lot of Nintendo games ~50-60k
PS2 Madden NFL 07 ~90k
PS2 Guitar Heroes 2 ~ 90k

Hardware

Wii ~345k
PS3 ~210k
360 ~247k
DS ~290k
PSP ~190k
PS2 ~248k (just because)
GCN ~20k
Xbox ~Japan
GBA ~191k ("**** you psp" - Nintendo)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
sonycowboy said:
You mean except for the last two weeks of February through the end of March.

VF5, F1, Motorstorm, Oblivion (late, I know), & Armored Core 4 (?)

The "summer" are still up in the air. We just don't know what's going to hit when. We'll have to see what effect the second wind of games can do. I agree that without a HW price drop, it's going to be very tough slogging for Sony.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see what those games do for hardware sales. Software releases kept 360 sales pretty steady last year, even when big games came out (Oblivion, GRAW, Dead Rising, Saints Row, Fight Night Round 3, etc.). That system was locked in a pretty tight range that followed seasonal patterns to a 't'. I'm guessing the PS3 will follow a similar trend - steady, without any major fluctuations up or down.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
GhaleonEB said:
It will be interesting to see what those games do for hardware sales. Software releases kept 360 sales pretty steady last year, even when big games came out (Oblivion, GRAW, Dead Rising, Saints Row, Fight Night Round 3, etc.). That system was locked in a pretty tight range that followed seasonal patterns to a 't'. I'm guessing the PS3 will follow a similar trend - steady, without any major fluctuations up or down.
Click to expand...

Last April for the 360 was huge. The intersection of HW availability, FN R3, GRAW, & Oblivion really made for a great month (and it's only time beating the PS2 HW head-to-head, although it's been close a few months)

I don't expect any of these PS3 titles to have nearly that impact this March.
 
J

JB1981

Member
sonycowboy said:
Last April for the 360 was huge. The intersection of HW availability, FN R3, GRAW, & Oblivion really made for a great month (and it's only time beating the PS2 HW head-to-head, although it's been close a few months)

I don't expect any of these PS3 titles to have nearly that impact this March.
Click to expand...

PS3 gets Lair, The Darkness, Ninja Gaiden: Sigma and Warhawk before the end of the summer. I'm sure there's a host of releases I'm missing as well.

Hell, Heavenly Sword might even be out this summer.
 
S

Saitou

Banned
sonycowboy said:
Last April for the 360 was huge. The intersection of HW availability, FN R3, GRAW, & Oblivion really made for a great month (and it's only time beating the PS2 HW head-to-head, although it's been close a few months)
Click to expand...
yeah, but wasn't that the relaunch, though? =/
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
sonycowboy said:
Last April for the 360 was huge. The intersection of HW availability, FN R3, GRAW, & Oblivion really made for a great month (and it's only time beating the PS2 HW head-to-head, although it's been close a few months)

I don't expect any of these PS3 titles to have nearly that impact this March.
Click to expand...
True, but it was the first month of actual availability, combined with the releases. It's impossible to seperate the impact of the two, but certainly the sharply increased shipping levels were a big factor. The PS3 may see some movement, but nothing that dramatic since it's no longer supply-constrained.
 
F

fanduck

Member
So, Why are people predicting DS at 350k+? Last month it only sold about 250k, and this month there's not really any games that would support such a huge jump in systems sold. Not to mention 1 less week to the month. Anybody care to comment?

Here's my prediction:
Wii - 390,000 - So long as Nintendo can supply this, they are good.
360 - 310,000 - I'm thinking Crackdown might have brought some people to the console...
PS2 - 280,000 - People getting ready for God of War 2.
NDS - 240,000 - Didn't sell too well last month, and there's nothing coming out for it.
PS3 - 190,000 - Same as NDS
PSP - 190,000 - Not much to say here. It's selling well despite not being very popular
GBA - 150,000 - Just for good measures, I'll include this one.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
fanduck said:
So, Why are people predicting DS at 350k+? Last month it only sold about 250k, and this month there's not really any games that would support such a huge jump in systems sold. Not to mention 1 less week to the month. Anybody care to comment?
Click to expand...

DSLite is as hot as Britney rehab jokes and January was way supply-constrained for DSLite. Most stores had no inventory at all.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
fanduck said:
So, Why are people predicting DS at 350k+? Last month it only sold about 250k, and this month there's not really any games that would support such a huge jump in systems sold. Not to mention 1 less week to the month. Anybody care to comment?

Here's my prediction:
Wii - 390,000 - So long as Nintendo can supply this, they are good.
360 - 310,000 - I'm thinking Crackdown might have brought some people to the console...
PS2 - 280,000 - People getting ready for God of War 2.
NDS - 240,000 - Didn't sell too well last month, and there's nothing coming out for it.
PS3 - 190,000 - Same as NDS
PSP - 190,000 - Not much to say here. It's selling well despite not being very popular
GBA - 150,000 - Just for good measures, I'll include this one.
Click to expand...

The DS didn't sell much last month because of limited supply. Many people are assuming the supply went up.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
fanduck said:
So, Why are people predicting DS at 350k+? Last month it only sold about 250k, and this month there's not really any games that would support such a huge jump in systems sold. Not to mention 1 less week to the month. Anybody care to comment?
Click to expand...

Supply constrained in January and it eased up big time in February. Still can be tough to find in some areas, but was generally in better availability.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Wii: 340k (supply issues)
DS: 340k (supply issues, but hopefully not as bad as last month)
PS2: 240k
360: 234k
PS3: 185k (supply / left over demand no longer an issue)
GBA: 180k
PSP: 180k
GC: 25k
XBox: 0k (less than 1k and not reported)
 
E

Evlar

Banned
DS - 350,000
Wii - 290,000
X360 - 230,000
PSP - 210,000
PS3 - 180,000
GBA - 170,000

DS is more-or-less back to form, still somewhat supply constrained in the beginning of the month. Wii sells whatever ships but that's less than many here expect. X360 is also back to form for pre-Holiday sales. PSP is a mystery to me, honestly. PS3 is suffering and GBA is like that uncle who comes to visit for a weekend and ends up sleeping on the couch for a month.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
I cant be bothered to run my excel formulas while Im on vacation, so this is just off the top of my head


Wii - 333,333
NDS- 266,000
360 - 225,000
PS2 - 210,000
PSP -165,000
PS3 - 159,900
GBA - 145,000
GCN - 22,222
XBX - 431
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
History tells me to just lowball analist numbers. Therefore:

Wii: 290,000
PS2: 240,000
DS: 250,000 (shortages still a problem)
Xbox 360: 250,000
PS3: 210,000
PSP: 190,000

Crackdown: 600,000
VF5: 100,000
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Jtyettis said:
Didn't predict 360 sales last month either. I do agree that the PS3 sales could be far less than 200k and yes Crackdown will own all. What was the tie ratio to the PS3 last month? Not so sure about that 2.7.
Click to expand...
The Wii (2.2) and PS3 (2.7) January monthly tie ratios mentioned in the preview were correct.

I'll try and remember to post predictions later this week.
 
S

seattle6418

Member
wii - 324k
PS2 - 271k
360 - 213k
PS3 - 187k
GC - 12k
xbox - 4k

DS - 238k
PSP - 212k
GB - 123k

crackdown - 552k
VF5 - 125k
lost planet - 110k
guiter hero2 - 138k
2 DS titles
zelda wii - 102k
 
O

Orgen

Member
NDS - 294.000
PSP - 183.000
GBA - 167.000

Wii - 362.000
360 - 241.000
PS3 - 188.000

PS2 - 216.000
GCN - 22.000
 
F

FrankT

Member
Fuzzy said:
The Wii (2.2) and PS3 (2.7) January monthly tie ratios mentioned in the preview were correct.

I'll try and remember to post predictions later this week.
Click to expand...

So they're static month over month. He says similar for last month, no change at all then.
 
S

seattle6418

Member
Stopsign said:
Why does everyone forget about Diddy Kong Racing DS, I'm sure that did over 100k.
Click to expand...

i forgot a lot of titles. i´m for one, will have to recheck the release date schedule to have better guessings
 
P

Porkepik

Member
First there was only 4 weeks in february so I expect at least 15-20% less than the 5 week january for each console


I would go for:

Wii: 350k
X360:225k
NDS:210K
PS3:180k
PS2:150K
PSP:130K

I predict the PS3 will outsell the X360 in march but will go back down after that.
I don't see the Wii selling more than +-75K units per week due to supply contraints for a lot of the months to come at least until summer
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
djtiesto said:
Big sellers: Sonic and the Secret Rings, Crackdown, Lost Planet, Wii Play, VF5, and some sports games that I don't care about =P
Click to expand...

You really think that VF5 was a "big" seller? I think it would be lucky to do 50k.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Crackdown!

Only a couple more days until the game officially wins next gen! Or at least the month of February! :D
 
M

mylilbuddy

Banned
Wii 420
PS3 195
360 199
DSL 300
PSP 140
Ps2 197


You know how everyone jokes about sony takiing idas from others all the time? Well, I think the stole Nintendos business model on hardware...they will not lower price on ps3 for long time as they will sell the same number of units per month at 599 as they would at 499...They want to have ps3 last 10 yrs before next console so they will take things slow.

If sony equals 360 sales month per month the rest of the year, who wins? I mean, an established system should outsell the new kid per say....but shouldnt new system have greater demand? I just think the 360 and ps3 are the new super nintendo/genesis of our day.
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Jtyettis said:
So they're static month over month. He says similar for last month, no change at all then.
Click to expand...
Read the whole thing, not just the bolded parts.


Aeon712 said:
Only thing I'm interested in seeing is if Resistance went over 600k.
Click to expand...
There's no way it did well enough in February in order to do that.
 
S

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
Aeon712 said:
Only thing I'm interested in seeing is if Resistance went over 600k.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't Resistance need about a 50% attach rate to accomplish that? I'd hope it crosses 600k soon, as it's one of the only worthwhile games ATM.
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
squatingyeti said:
Wouldn't Resistance need about a 50% attach rate to accomplish that? I'd hope it crosses 600k soon, as it's one of the only worthwhile games ATM.
Click to expand...
It's LTD attach ratio isn't much below that but it still won't pass 600K in February NPD. It will in March though (unless something crazy happens).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom