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Official July 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

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donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by midnight EDT on Wednesday, August 15th. This is to, hopefully, close entries before the Canadian numbers can come in. If the Canadian numbers come in before that time, the deadline will not change for this month. Next month's deadline would be earlier, though. ;)

NPD Release: August 23rd @ 4:00 p.m. EDT (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EDT)
NPD Coverage: July 8 - August 4 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)

June 2007 Results (5-week month) - thanks to EvilLore and IGN

EviLore said:
Playstation 3 -- 98.5k
Xbox 360 -- 198.4k
Wii -- 381.8k
DS -- 561.9k
PSP -- 290.1k
Click to expand...
IGN said:
PS2 - 270K
GBA - 113K
Click to expand...

EviLore said:
01. Wii Mario Party 8 -- 426.2k
02. Wii Play w/ remote -- 293.2k
03. NDS Pokemon Diamond Version -- 288.4k
04. NDS Pokemon Pearl Version -- 214.7k
05. 360 Forza Motorsport 2 -- 197.40k
06. PS2 Guitar Hero 2 w/ Guitar -- 197.35k
07. 360 Guitar Hero 2 w/ Guitar -- 177.6k
08. Wii Pokemon Battle -- 157.9k
09. Wii Resident Evil 4
10. 360 The Darkness
Click to expand...
RE4 was about 150K according to IGN.

Potentially significant releases from July 8 - August 4

NDS - Picross DS (7/30)
WII - Mario Strikers Charged (7/30)
PS2 - NCAA 08 Football (7/17), NASCAR 08 (7/23), Guitar Hero: Rock the 80s (7/24)
360 - All-Pro Football 2K8 (7/16), NCAA 08 Football (7/17), NASCAR 08 (7/23)
PSP - Final Fantasy II (7/24)
PS3 - 60GB price drop - $499 (7/9), All-Pro Football 2K8 (7/16), NCAA 08 Football (7/17), NASCAR 08 (7/23)


Japanese Sales July 9 - August 5 - for comparison

NDS - 582,874
WII - 335,307
PSP - 139,426
PS3 - 78,798
PS2 - 54,377
360 - 12,169
GBA - 2,066



Don't forget to use the proper format when posting predictions.

Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a p
Click to expand...
 
D

donny2112

Member
Software Predictions

Notes:
1. This will be separate from the hardware predictions and will not count toward the hardware rankings.
2. Put software predictions in quote tags.

Required Software Predictions
1) Top 10 overall w/units (must pick per sku, not combining multi-platform)
2) Overall Software Sales for the month in dollars

Point System
1) 10 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 10 (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 100
2) 10 points * (percentage of correct units for each title, anything over 100% difference = 0 points) in your overall top 10. Maximum points: 100
3) 20 points * (percentage of correct overall software sales in dollars, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 20
 
D

donny2112

Member
Karma Kramer said:
Wii: 340,000
DS: 495,000
PSP: 250,00
PS2: 220,00
X360: 175,000
PS3: 176,000
Click to expand...

Don't forget to use the parser format. Also, you're missing some zeroes on the PS2 and PSP. ;)

Edit: Thanks for fixing it. :)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I think it's worth mentioning that in the press release announcing the launch of the 80GB SKU Sony said:

Since that date, unit sales at the company's top five retailers have jumped 113% when compared to the average sales of four weeks prior to the price drop.
Click to expand...
The launch of that SKU lines up almost perfectly with the NPD coverage window (both covering the same four week periord), so bear it in mind when making PS3 predictions. The question is, how close will NPD be to Sony's top five retailers?
 
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jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
[NDS] 471k
[WII] 276k
[PSP] 215k
[PS2] 205k
[360] 160k
[PS3] 140k
[GBA] 92k
 
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Cheesemeister

Member
Mojovonio said:
[WII] 360,000
[NDS] 300,000
[PSP] 230,00
[PS2] 200,00
[360] 150,000
[PS3] 180,000
Click to expand...

Yoboman said:
[WII] 365,000
[NDS] 545,000
[PSP] 285,00
[PS2] 245,00
[360] 168,000
[PS3] 210,000
Click to expand...

RobertM said:
[WII] 390,000
[NDS] 350,00
[PS2] 220,000
[PSP] 200,000
[PS3] 190,000
[360] 165,000
[GBA] 85,000
Click to expand...

GhaleonEB said:
[WII] 310,000
[NDS] 450,00
[PS2] 215,000
[PSP] 230,000
[PS3] 155,000
[360] 150,000
[GBA] 80,000
Click to expand...

Not the sharpest knives in the drawer... ;)
 
C

C4Lukins

Junior Member
[PS3] 167,000
[360] 145,000
[Wii] 335,000
[NDS] 490,000
[PSP] 235,000
[PS2] 212,000
[GBA] 88,000

Enjoy your one month victory PS3
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Innotech said:
that still wouldnt lift it to 200k. xbox360 struggles to hit 200k at a much cheaper price and a full selection of games.
Click to expand...
If you take Sony's figure of 113% straight up, then it's 168k. 200k is definately too high.
 
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Innotech

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
If you take Sony's figure of 113% straight up, then it's 168k. 200k is definately too high.
Click to expand...
yeah I probably lowballed it a bit, but 200k is way too high, even for a price drop. its still 500$ and thats way below a 200k/month selling range. But in any case its not much of a price drop if its the original price of the tard pack. Its a better value maybe.
 
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Cheesemeister

Member
Bebpo said:
The DS is going to sell 4 million in July?

...ok.
Click to expand...

That would be high-balling, not low-balling.
rolleyes.gif
 
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jonabbey

Member
Innotech said:
that still wouldnt lift it to 200k. xbox360 struggles to hit 200k at a much cheaper price and a full selection of games.
Click to expand...

The 360 doesn't bundle a hi-def movie disc player. A fair number of folks have been buying HDTV sets, and the PS3 is finally an across-the-board stellar Blu-Ray and DVD player, what with all the firmware upgrades.

Still..

[NDS] 400,000
[WII] 345,000
[PSP] 210,000
[PS2] 190,000
[PS3] 175,000 - Price drop, 5 free Blu-Ray disc deal, retailer Blu-Ray movie promotions
[360] 160,000 - Big publicity for XBox 360 hardware issues, no price drop
 
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