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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
The situation isn't as black and white as some believe.

Out of curiosity, I switched on RT news yesterday. If you only watched RT news, you'd think that Russia was the good guy in all this. They showed Ukrainian refugees fleeing into Russia. People of the Donbas region celebrating the announcement by Putin by letting off fireworks and flying Russian flags. Interviews with people in the region who believe this announcement will be peace to the region.

Switch back to Sky News and Russia is the bad guy. The aggressor who has invaded Ukraine and used dangerous rhetoric to justify his invasion, or how he wants to recreate the Russian Empire.

Now, I know RT is pretty much Russian propaganda. Putin could kill puppies and they'd spin that into a positive. However, it was certainly interesting to see how different the news is on either side and made me question what's real and what's not.
RT is full blown state-controlled propaganda. The free press over there has been suppressed through murder and intimidation. Western reporters on the ground are saying that those regions were largely evacuated of their civilian populations and that barely anyone was around for the fireworks "celebration." All theater.
 
The situation isn't as black and white as some believe.

Out of curiosity, I switched on RT news yesterday. If you only watched RT news, you'd think that Russia was the good guy in all this. They showed Ukrainian refugees fleeing into Russia. People of the Donbas region celebrating the announcement by Putin by letting off fireworks and flying Russian flags. Interviews with people in the region who believe this announcement will be peace to the region.

Switch back to Sky News and Russia is the bad guy. The aggressor who has invaded Ukraine and used dangerous rhetoric to justify his invasion, or how he wants to recreate the Russian Empire.

Now, I know RT is pretty much Russian propaganda. Putin could kill puppies and they'd spin that into a positive. However, it was certainly interesting to see how different the news is on either side and made me question what's real and what's not.

Yep thats exactly why you watch both sides of propaganda and have to manage to sometimes unfortunately only guess whats really happening.
 

Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
If there is a next it's the Baltics, Caucasus or Central Asia.. If Ukraine is done.
Basically yeah, but I really don't think Ukraine is done. I think Putin is going to be stuck having to settle for the parts that he's already taken and maybe a little bit extra. And that's a big maybe. He just doesn't have the forces required to take all of Ukraine and keep it.


But he does have exactly as much as he needs to take and hold the areas that he has declared to be independent.

RT is full blown state-controlled propaganda. The free press over there has been suppressed through murder and intimidation. Western reporters on the ground are saying that those regions were largely evacuated of their civilian populations and that barely anyone was around for the fireworks "celebration." All theater.
My jaw actually dropped when I saw the clip of the "celebration". I mean it's one thing to hear about all the badly staged propaganda that places like Russia and China use against their citizens, but it was a whole other thing to see it basically live on American TV.


Like some kind of bizarre Twilight Zone.
 
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jason10mm

Member
The funny thing is that China is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this issue because of Taiwan. They could support Russia and it's propaganda about reclaiming lost territories or whatever nonsense Putin is trying to push as a way to support their own perceived ownership of Taiwan.


However this would mean acknowledging that sections of a country have a right to declare independence and seek protection from foreign governments. This is the exact OPPOSITE message they want to for Taiwan though.
That would imply that China wasn't ACUTELY aware that the west has the attention span and memory of a fly.

China can say something today and sic their media lapdogs to memory hole it in hours to be replaced with the exact opposite message.

This is a very vulnerable sector of a free society with easy communications.
 

Pagusas

Elden Member
Yep thats exactly why you watch both sides of propaganda and have to manage to sometimes unfortunately only guess whats really happening.
But you also have to manager propaganda on forums and such, for all we know IDKFA is a russian plant intending to intentionally place the narrative of "russia good guy?"
 

Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Yep thats exactly why you watch both sides of propaganda and have to manage to sometimes unfortunately only guess whats really happening.
In some cases maybe but we are acutely aware of exactly what's happening right now in Ukraine. The governments of the world have been literally telling us that it was going to happen for weeks now. And it basically happened exactly as they predicted. And now with all of the news coming out of the Kremlin today it looks like Putin is ready to secure the rest of the areas that he declared to be independent.


Really the only thing left is to see how the Ukrainian military responds when Russian forces start trying to take areas that they do not already have under control.
 
But you also have to manager propaganda on forums and such, for all we know IDKFA is a russian plant intending to intentionally place the narrative of "russia good guy?"
First step would be to show them what they believe as true is wrong with good examples and if they still continue their bs ways then mute them or report?
 

Buggy Loop

Member
This is insane.

The west absolutely needs to take some severe action here. Yes, Ukraine is under attack, but also the entire post ww2 power structure where the west basically divided up and ran the world. China in particular is licking its chops eyeing Taiwan if Russia is allowed to do this.

The west is under attack.

GIF by Bounce


Wtf, who wants a full fledged war over Ukraine. There’s no winners. I’m sorry but if I have to sacrifice Ukraine to have some hope of not getting nuked in WW3, so be it.
 

Hari Seldon

Member
Not alone they cant

Look at poland global military firepower its nothing compared to russia

They gona need nato help
I think Poland is strong enough to hold the ground and wait for sanctions to cripple Russia, especially if they have plenty warning of the attack and can activate their nearly 2 million strong reserve force. But yeah, they can't invade Russia, but they could HODL indefinitely while being funneled supplies. This is all a moot point because Poland would be defended by NATO.

At least I think. The world has never really seen what modern anti-tank weaponry equipped by well-trained soldiers can do.
 

Ionian

Member
Switch back to Sky News and Russia is the bad guy. The aggressor who has invaded Ukraine and used dangerous rhetoric to justify his invasion, or how he wants to recreate the Russian Empire.

Now, I know RT is pretty much Russian propaganda. Putin could kill puppies and they'd spin that into a positive. However, it was certainly interesting to see how different the news is on either side and made me question what's real and what's not.

Sky news, well, I'd watch it in hotels and laugh.

That 1 pound McDonalds menu option, that's there the equivalent of their news now.

They were good until they weren't.

Murdoch sculpted the press. Bring back page 3 is what I say. Nothing like tits when you're eating a breakfast roll on a building site.
 

Raven117

Member
GIF by Bounce


Wtf, who wants a full fledged war over Ukraine. There’s no winners. I’m sorry but if I have to sacrifice Ukraine to have some hope of not getting nuked in WW3, so be it.
Where would you like to draw the line? When a country with nukes decides they want to take over a NATO country? When they want to take over the U.S.? Just let them do it..."to have some hope of not getting nuked in WW3."

This is more long game than it is about Ukraine specifically. The West has to defend its power if they want to enjoy the position it had in the last century. Don't forget, Ukraine gave up nukes on the promise they would be defended (Budapest Memorandum). LOL, what a joke of a policy that all turned out to be (for any country).
 
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jason10mm

Member
Oh I was just going to suggest making them watch Red Dawn and seeing who they root for.

kermit-dont-be-suspicious.gif
You joke but that would have been an AWESOME way for some Ukrainian indie/state sponsored filmmakers to make a movie that would speak to American heartstrings.

Plus there must be Lea Thompson and Jennifer Grey lookalikes over there...

1z8YLSc.jpg
 
In some cases maybe but we are acutely aware of exactly what's happening right now in Ukraine. The governments of the world have been literally telling us that it was going to happen for weeks now. And it basically happened exactly as they predicted. And now with all of the news coming out of the Kremlin today it looks like Putin is ready to secure the rest of the areas that he declared to be independent.


Really the only thing left is to see how the Ukrainian military responds when Russian forces start trying to take areas that they do not already have under control.
I doubt anything more is coming, but I'm often wrong. Watch the clip I posted - dude literally spilled the plan to also integrate both regions into Russia. Just surprised that there was no resistense of any sort and EU associate to press refusing to even call it an invasion.
 

asustitan

Banned
Don't forget

2014 the ELECTED president was wanting closer ties with Russia.
Protests started and the government was overthrown. (were these sponsored? who knows)
The new government started to enforce restrictions on the use of the Russian language.
East Ukraine found this unacceptable and set up republics.

Bottom line is, Russia will not allow Ukraine to go into Nato.
In the same way the U.S would not allow Russia to put missiles on Cuba.
There has to be buffer zones.

The West only had to say yeh we are not interested in Ukraine joining NATO and Putin would have no reason to invade.

Find any western journalist to go back 8 years to see this seems impossible.
 
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Cyberpunkd

Member
Now, I know RT is pretty much Russian propaganda. Putin could kill puppies and they'd spin that into a positive. However, it was certainly interesting to see how different the news is on either side and made me question what's real and what's not.
So Russian propaganda made you question if they are the bad guys? WTF?

I think Poland is strong enough to hold the ground and wait for sanctions to cripple Russia, especially if they have plenty warning of the attack and can activate their nearly 2 million strong reserve force. But yeah, they can't invade Russia, but they could HODL indefinitely while being funneled supplies. This is all a moot point because Poland would be defended by NATO.
Poland’s military is pathetic, last week a secret report by the Polish MoD was revealed - barely 30% of all units are in full combat readiness. Right now Poland doesn’t have a single active military ship (ZERO) as well as ZERO submarines. Basically Polish navy doesn’t exist.

Poland would not last a week against Russia.
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Howcome Russia is invading Ukraine?
What are they hoping to gain/achieve?
You want the honest short of it? Putin considers the fall of the Soviet Union and the breaking up of it's territories to be unfair and as a result believes they rightfully belong to the "Russian Empire".


Oh and Putin is crazy. As illustrated by the above.
 
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Buggy Loop

Member
Where would you like to draw the line? When a country with nukes decides they want to take over a NATO country? When they want to take over the U.S.? Just let them do it..."to have some hope of not getting nuked in WW3."

This is more long game than it is about Ukraine specifically. The West has to defend its power if they want to enjoy the position it had in the last century. Don't forget, Ukraine gave up nukes on the promise they would be defended (Budapest Memorandum). LOL, what a joke of a policy that all turned out to be (for any country).

Right, they’re not NATO though. So what’s the point of a treaty if anyone outside of it has to be policed/protected anyway?

Freeze all assets of the oligarchy, put sanctions on Russia until they choke and they assassinate Putin themselves. Money talks nowadays, not missiles.
 
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Cyberpunkd

Member
The West only had to say yeh we are not interested in Ukraine joining NATO and Putin would have no reason to invade.
Ukraine was promised a NATO membership, or at least consideration.
Likewise, Russia PROMISED to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nuclear weapons (when USSR fell Ukraine had the world’s 3rd largest nuclear arsenal).

Guess who went back on their word ?
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Poland’s military is pathetic, last week a secret report by the Polish MoD was revealed - barely 30% of all units are in full combat readiness. Right now Poland doesn’t have a single active military shit (ZERO) as well as ZERO submarines. Basically Polish navy doesn’t exist.

Poland would not last a week against Russia.
Poland wouldn't, but NATO sure as hell would.
 

asustitan

Banned
Ukraine was promised a NATO membership, or at least consideration.
Likewise, Russia PROMISED to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nuclear weapons (when USSR fell Ukraine had the world’s 3rd largest nuclear arsenal).

Guess who went back on their word ?

Promised NATO membership? I doubt Russia gives a **** about that. Only yeh thats not happening.
I don't think Russia could sit well with an EU favoured coup happening.
 
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Airbus Jr

Litigate my emotions, daddy!




EU shouldve won ( if they decided to help Ukraine)

But their aircraft sucks

Only typhoon, rafale some tornado or perhaps some F18 and F35 in limited quantity

Meanwhile russia have Su 30, Su 33, Su 35 and migs

Totally outclassed in air to air combat scenario so they must rellied more on anti air missile

Best way is by economic blocade or sanctions
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
I doubt anything more is coming, but I'm often wrong. Watch the clip I posted - dude literally spilled the plan to also integrate both regions into Russia. Just surprised that there was no resistense of any sort and EU associate to press refusing to even call it an invasion.
Well more has to come. The two areas that declared independence do not actually control all of the land that they laid claim to. So if Russia intends to actually enforce it's own declaration to aid and protect these regions Russian forces have to secure those areas. Which would put them directly across from the Ukrainian military.
 
Well more has to come. The two areas that declared independence do not actually control all of the land that they laid claim to. So if Russia intends to actually enforce it's own declaration to aid and protect these regions Russian forces have to secure those areas. Which would put them directly across from the Ukrainian military.
For how things transpired so far it prob wouldn't be too far fetched to expect Ukraine to give up those two regions without any fight.
 

QSD

Member
recommend this video, it's about 3 weeks old and news moves fast but there's a LOT of useful background info here about what's going on internally in russia and what pressures Putin is under

 

Hari Seldon

Member
Poland’s military is pathetic, last week a secret report by the Polish MoD was revealed - barely 30% of all units are in full combat readiness. Right now Poland doesn’t have a single active military ship (ZERO) as well as ZERO submarines. Basically Polish navy doesn’t exist.

Poland would not last a week against Russia.
Hmm on paper the Poles seem much more capable but I guess if they have been like the rest of Europe and neglecting their armed forces I guess they could be fucked. But I still think that provided enough warning of an invasion calling up over a million in reserves would hamper anything Russia could throw at them. But we shall see in Ukraine.
 

akimbo009

Member
Hmm on paper the Poles seem much more capable but I guess if they have been like the rest of Europe and neglecting their armed forces I guess they could be fucked. But I still think that provided enough warning of an invasion calling up over a million in reserves would hamper anything Russia could throw at them. But we shall see in Ukraine.

Poland is in NATO. They may have deficiencies, but they'll be supported by 29 other nations in their defense.

Oh, fuck Putin.
 

OmegaSupreme

advanced basic bitch
Do we have any active military gaf? I'd be curious to hear what they might have heard so far. I've heard second-hand that they've not been told anything.
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Biden just reaffirmed that the US and NATO will only commit troops to protect NATO territory, but that they are sanctioning the shit out of Russian elites.


So that's good at least.
 

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member

Alebrije

Member
Feel sorry for those people, Covid and now a possible war...hope this does not happens...there must be a diplomatic way...
 

Raven117

Member
Right, they’re not NATO though. So what’s the point of a treaty if anyone outside of it has to be policed/protected anyway?

Freeze all assets of the oligarchy, put sanctions on Russia until they choke and they assassinate Putin themselves. Money talks nowadays, not missiles.
If you promise security for giving up nukes… then they get invaded. No one else will give up nukes.

If they have decided that the west power structure is no longer valid… they will push through the sanctions.

Money does talk… but so does Putins belief that Ukraine (and other states) are Russian. Some things can’t be explained with money and logic.
 
Not to defend Putin, but I think people are seriously underestimating the historic and diplomatic burden of the situation. Here are some important key factors that have provoked Russia's encroachment:

1) NATO Eastward Expansion

Russia has been very skeptical of NATO's progressive eastward expansion. The first one happened in 1999, when Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined the NATO. In 2004, the Baltic states followed and while the Sovjets made it clear that they did not approve of this, none of these states were close to their borders. Russia was willing to live with it until the Bukarest summit, when NATO annexed the Ukraine. In 2008, Russia considered this a direct threat to their sovereignty. The NATO Eastward Expansion as driven forward by the West in a very foolish, hasty and callous way.

2) Ukraine's ethnic composition

Ethnolingusitic_map_of_ukraine.png


As we can see, East Ukraine is predominantly Russian. From a Russian point of view it could be argued that they are merely seeking to repatriate their population, which is heavily promoted by the recently formed sovereign republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. In a sense, the Russians might feel about this like West-Germany reannexing the East-Germany. Now the West claims that the Donbas referendum was faulty, but Russia recognized its legitimacy for obvious reasons.

3) Rising anti-EU sentiment

The Ukraine is a deeply divided country, between the pro-European west and the pro-Russian east. I mena, just look at these surveys:

Kj9oqL6.jpg
ljvOH4G.jpg


A majority of Eastern Ukrainians neither want to join the EU, nor do they wish for their country to join the NATO. Ukraine's political regime and the West did almost nothing to attenuate that situation over the last decade and this is what ultimately happens if you let theses divisions fester and grow.

4) Europe's dependence on Russian gas

GazpromDependence.gif


Germany in particular has been warned about its precarious dependence on Russian gas and how it might embolden the eastern bloc. Not much was done about it though and halting Nord Stream 2 is only spurring Putin on. The reaction is certainly understandable, Germany wants to show a strong hand, but it might end up only in marking the point of no return for Russia.

5) No strong European leaders

Seriously, who do we Europeans have to negotiate with Putin? Scholz? Macron? Frikkin' Ursula von der Leyen? None of them are adapted to the Hobbesian worldview that represents Russia's foreign policy and Putin's leviathanic political hegemony.
It's a truly horrible and f*cked up situation.

Not long ago I came across this European peace clock:

FUwbvYM.jpg


It was reading 76 years, 1 month 1 day and 18 hours. It saddens me greatly that we might have to reset it now :messenger_pensive:
 
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Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Not to defend Putin, but I think people are seriously underestimating the historic and diplomatic burden of the situation. Here are some important key factors that have provoked Russia's encroachment:

1) NATO Eastward Expansion

Russia has been very skeptical of NATO's progressive eastward expansion. The first one happened in 1999, when Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined the NATO. In 2004, the Baltic states followed and while the Sovjets made it clear that they did not approve of this, none of these states were close to their borders. Russia was willing to live with it until the Bukarest summit, when NATO annexed the Ukraine. In 2008, Russia considered this a direct threat to their sovereignty. The NATO Eastward Expansion as driven forward by the West in a very foolish, hasty and callous way.

2) Ukraine's ethnic composition

Ethnolingusitic_map_of_ukraine.png


As we can see, East Ukraine is predominantly Russian. From a Russian point of view it could be argued that they are merely seeking to repatriate their population, which is heavily promoted by the recently formed sovereign republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. In a sense, the Russians might feel about this like West-Germany reannexing the East-Germany. Now the West claims that the Donbas referendum was faulty, but Russia recognized its legitimacy for obvious reasons.

3) Rising anti-EU sentiment

The Ukraine is a deeply divided country, between the pro-European west and the pro-Russian east. I mena, just look at these surveys:

Kj9oqL6.jpg
ljvOH4G.jpg


A majority of Eastern Ukrainians neither want to join the EU, nor do they wish for their country to join the NATO. Ukraine's political regime and the West did almost nothing to attenuate that situation over the last decade and this is what ultimately happens if you let theses divisions fester and grow.

4) Europe's dependence on Russian gas

GazpromDependence.gif


Germany in particular has been warned about its precarious dependence on Russian gas and how it might embolden the eastern bloc. Not much was done about it though and halting Nord Stream 2 is only spurring Putin on. The reaction is certainly understandable, Germany wants to show a strong hand, but it might end up only in marking the point of no return for Russia.

5) No strong European leaders

Seriously, who do we Europeans have to negotiate with Putin? Scholz? Marcon? Frikkin' Ursula von der Leyen? None of them are adapted to the Hobbesian worldview that represents Russia's foreign policy and Putin's leviathanic political hegemony.
It's a truly horrible and f*cked up situation.

Not long ago I came across this European peace clock:

FUwbvYM.jpg


It was reading 76 years, 1 month 1 day and 18 hours. It saddens me greatly that we might have to reset it now :messenger_pensive:
Literally none of that excuses anything that Russia has done.


1) NATO exists to protect Europe from Russia. Not to destroy it. The idea that NATO threatens the security of Russia is laughable. In fact Putin has actually done an amazing job of illustrating why it's needed by illegally invading a sovereign nation.

2) It doesn't matter what language they speak. They are apart of Ukraine. Russia cannot unilaterally declare an entire section of Ukraine to not be part of Ukraine and invade just because the people in those areas speak mostly Russian. That's not how it works.


3) Same as #2. It doesn't matter. It does not give Russia the right to do any of this.


4) What does Europe's reliance on Russian goods have to do with them invading Ukraine? As we have just seen that is not going to stop the EU and the US from rightfully sanctioning the hell out of them. If Putin actually believed that he would be able to get off lightly just because they supply gas to a lot of Europe then he is crazier than I thought.


5) Once again irrelevant.
 
Is Putin evil? Does he just go around getting drunk and invading countries for no reason? Or are we provoking him by messing around in Ukraine.

In the case of Crimea it was Russia's only port to the black sea. Letting it get away get away would be worse for them than the US losing Hawaii. If geostrategic interests are valid, Russia's wars are valid. If they are not, neither were ours, in which case we have no moral highground.

War is immoral and whatever moral calculus you want to do about geostrategic interests or NATO or some future threat doesn't change the fact that there are no wars without war crimes.
 
Literally none of that excuses anything that Russia has done.


1) NATO exists to protect Europe from Russia. Not to destroy it. The idea that NATO threatens the security of Russia is laughable. In fact Putin has actually done an amazing job of illustrating why it's needed by illegally invading a sovereign nation.

2) It doesn't matter what language they speak. They are apart of Ukraine. Russia cannot unilaterally declare an entire section of Ukraine to not be part of Ukraine and invade just because the people in those areas speak mostly Russian. That's not how it works.


3) Same as #2. It doesn't matter. It does not give Russia the right to do any of this.


4) What does Europe's reliance on Russian goods have to do with them invading Ukraine? As we have just seen that is not going to stop the EU and the US from rightfully sanctioning the hell out of them. If Putin actually believed that he would be able to get off lightly just because they supply gas to a lot of Europe then he is crazier than I thought.


5) Once again irrelevant.
It doesn't justify it, but it's about context at least. NATO's expansion was definitely a little arrogant. It's not saying that Putin has a right to anything, but just understanding that the balance of power had continually shifted away from Russian interests for years, and shifted much further than initially envisioned in NATO's creation. It's more helpful to try and make some sense of the motivations of each side, rather than just call them maniacs.

But despite the motivations involved, Russia does not have the right to do this and is just exerting military power, and political power through it's gas dealings. Similar upcoming situation with Taiwan.
 
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