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Stand and be counted: Predict when will the Coronavirus go away?
Elektro Demon
Shits and Giggles
Shantae
Banned
I hope we're over the fear part by sometime in the Summer at least...a concert I was gonna fly out to California for in April got rescheduled to October, and with the way assholes are not staying indoors and still spreading the virus, makes me think we still are on the road of shit getting worse before it gets better.
iconmaster
Banned
At some point, probably this year, most everyone in the world will have been exposed. At that point, there’s no reason to quarantine anymore.
TheSadRanger
Banned
It's already almost over in SK and Japan. Because they wear masks and did testing right, they're already almost getting close to going back to normal, SK started playing baseball again, schools are reopening in SK. It's the west that will change and have to adapt. I posted this in another thread but a SK doctor who's part of infectious diseases and controls has said that a big reason Japan and SK have been so successful is that masks are a part of life and prevented the spread of the virus. He said if you look at where the virus has exploded it's all in regions in Europe and U.S where people don't wear masks.
He said he basically straight up disagrees with the WHO saying normal people shouldn't wear masks. The guy has been doing this for 30 years and considering SK got a handle on this it's worth a watch.
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TheSadRanger
Banned
Don't be a defeatist, SK got a handle on this with minimal deaths and are close to going back to normal. Instead of being myopic we need to look at what they did and apply it here in the west.
It's a win/win situation, we go back to normal quicker and we can stomp out the virus. It's western leadership that's failed and needs to adjust, that's in the U.S and Europe.
cryptoadam
Banned
If all goes to plan in 8-12 weeks there will be mass testing and probably an antibody test.
After that your playing Russian roulette with getting the virus so masks, temp checks, hand washing, social distancing until a vaccine comes out which is probably 3-10 years away.
All though I do think we will get a theraputic that will at least be able to help 50% if not more of the people who get it.
After that your playing Russian roulette with getting the virus so masks, temp checks, hand washing, social distancing until a vaccine comes out which is probably 3-10 years away.
All though I do think we will get a theraputic that will at least be able to help 50% if not more of the people who get it.
MetalAlien
Banned
Yea but to prevent the next one people will be acting stupid for years.
MaestroMike
Member
newhere I can get some subzero or scorpion masks??
Tesseract
Banned
captainraincoat
Banned
June/JUly....the plus side is i will get to play the Last of Us 2 uninterrupted
prag16
Banned
Probably never. We're going to have to just get on with life. Somewhere around June or so that'll probably happen. For those pinning hopes on a vaccine, don't hold your breath. If it behaves like seasonal flu, the vaccine might not do jack shit. And as other have said mass availability of something like that which actually has any real chance of working is at least 18 months away.
Ichabod
Banned
I thought about making a thread for this article from MIT, but they are predicting this virus is here to stay and social distancing and self quarantine will become the new normal.
JordanN
Banned
We're almost up to 100 votes.
At least one thing we can credit Neogaf for, there is a wide range of guesses instead of one standard one.
If none of these things are removed or they persist, then technically you should vote "never" because it's now the new way of life for humans.
At least one thing we can credit Neogaf for, there is a wide range of guesses instead of one standard one.
Lockdowns are removed, all businesses are allowed to open and not just "essential ones", social distancing being disbanded. Basically, how life was before November 2019.
If none of these things are removed or they persist, then technically you should vote "never" because it's now the new way of life for humans.
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ScarletSpider
Banned
.
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JordanN
Banned
prag16
Banned
Nope nope nope.
iconmaster
Banned
You misunderstand, I don’t mean we’ll all die from it. The vast majority won’t. But most of us are probably going to contract the virus, even if we never realize it.
The sooner we’ve all been exposed, the sooner we can get back to work.
Jon Neu
Banned
The situation right now it's literally like living a nightmare, everything is so depressing.
To think that some months ago we were living and enjoying life without knowing that a catastrophical event would change it so drastically and so fast.
I think we are going to appreciate our life and life style a lot more once we go back to normal. I'm dying to just go outside whenever I want to, to meet someone at the cafeteria, to hug and kiss the people I love, to stop worrying about their existence or even my existence, to stop wearing masks and gloves, to go to the gym, to get back to school...
And I hope our governments learn from this experience and prepare themselves for the future. This time the virus has a low death rate, but next time can be something more deadly and the situation would be even much much worse.
We can't be as slow and clumsy as we have been now.
To think that some months ago we were living and enjoying life without knowing that a catastrophical event would change it so drastically and so fast.
I think we are going to appreciate our life and life style a lot more once we go back to normal. I'm dying to just go outside whenever I want to, to meet someone at the cafeteria, to hug and kiss the people I love, to stop worrying about their existence or even my existence, to stop wearing masks and gloves, to go to the gym, to get back to school...
And I hope our governments learn from this experience and prepare themselves for the future. This time the virus has a low death rate, but next time can be something more deadly and the situation would be even much much worse.
We can't be as slow and clumsy as we have been now.
TheSadRanger
Banned
That's an incredibly dangerous statement to make about a new virus where there may be potential long term effects that may not fully be understood yet due to lack of data.
Stiflers Mom
Banned
This +100.
This isolation goes on my nerves.
And I really hope our retarded governments understand that we need to be prepared and take virus outbreaks more serious in future.
Domisto
Member
In that case I change my vote to 6 months, worldwide.
I don't think C19 is going away, and am not convinced their will be a vaccine. However, at some point we will have to go back to something resembling normality regardless. This year will most likely be the worst in terms of deaths and then we will continue with the acceptance that each year thousands die of another virus.
Skyfox
Member
Pretty sure I've had it. It's super infectious so it will be impossible to contain.
Eventually everyone will get it. A small percentage will die.
For now, get healthy and stay rested. Cod liver oil, fresh fruit and veg, fish and of course, Videogames.
People will have started to get over this in the next couple of months. World carrying on before end of the year.
Eventually everyone will get it. A small percentage will die.
For now, get healthy and stay rested. Cod liver oil, fresh fruit and veg, fish and of course, Videogames.
People will have started to get over this in the next couple of months. World carrying on before end of the year.
iconmaster
Banned
Okay, but you need to take it up with the infectious disease experts. I’m not making it so by sharing their prediction. For the U.S.:
Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
In a panel, experts at UC San Francisco urged everyone over 60 to stay home and not fly. They predict up to 70% of Americans will get infected.
www.businessinsider.com
You’ll find similar estimates for the world at large. Social distancing slows the process, but doesn’t stop it:
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
www.theatlantic.com
40-70% of the world’s population within the year. Note that this does not mean we all die.
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JordanN
Banned
I know there's an official thread but I'll still share this anyway.
www.ctvnews.ca
If this pandemic seriously lasts a year or more, it's going to be absolutely nightmarish.
COVID-19 battle will last 'months, many months' as cases soar: federal doctor
Canada's deputy chief public health officer has delivered a sobering assessment of the country's struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.ctvnews.ca
If this pandemic seriously lasts a year or more, it's going to be absolutely nightmarish.
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cryptoadam
Banned
I know there's an official thread but I'll still share this anyway.
COVID-19 battle will last 'months, many months' as cases soar: federal doctor
Canada's deputy chief public health officer has delivered a sobering assessment of the country's struggle with the COVID-19 pandemic.
If this pandemic seriously lasts a year or more, it's going to be absolutely nightmarish.
I swear I just saw an article yesterday saying it looks like the results of social distancing is working rah rah rah we are dong it Canada.
These guys are going to change their opinion every day. And the more gloomy your prediction the more airtime you get.
But hey gotta keep myself optimisitc since I am in the epicenter of the outbreak and my city is making the rest of Canada look bad. Come on Ontario/Toronto you always want to be better than Montreal/Quebec but this is the one time you decide to take a back seat ?
JordanN
Banned
Would it really be profitable at this point to spread such doom or airtime?
Keep in mind, the longer this virus goes, that also means the longer these doctors/medical staff have to work around the clock. If anything, it's going to cost us more money the longer this pandemic goes on.
They don't have infinite energy let alone infinite resources to look after these patients. Someone posted a video in the other thread of what happened in Wuhan.
The nurses/doctors were crying they were forced to work 24 hours and had to turn people away that needed help.
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cryptoadam
Banned
If you say everything is fine no one will listen to your news cast or read your paper. I never listen to AM radio in my car always SirusXM. The last 3 weeks I have been glued to the local AM station. An article saying everything will suck for a long time will get more people reading then one saying everything is great.
Now I am not saying our media is a sensationalist as the US media. But like I said the other day I just saw an article saying everything is working, and now a day later its saying we will be like this for months. If the numbers go down for 2 days all the doom and gloom will go away, if they go up it will intensify.
But personally I don't see this ending quickly. I hope we aren't going to be another Italy/Spain and there is another way, but I am losing faith that really its inevitable. I think in Canada we can move to an SK like model but we need to get it under control, and that starts alot with Mr Legault and taking care of my city and his province. He has talked a good game, but were at an inflection point and he needs more action.
JordanN
Banned
Some good news?
Other experts now give it 6 months before things could go back to normal.
metro.co.uk
Other experts now give it 6 months before things could go back to normal.
'Six months or more' before UK returns to normal from coronavirus crisis
Dr Jenny Harries insisted this will not mean a six-month lockdown but the time restrictive measures could remain in place.
metro.co.uk
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Insane Metal
Member
1 year or more, until we have a vaccine. Until then I believe we'll live with recurring waves of this thing everywhere.
I 100% hope I'm wrong though.
I 100% hope I'm wrong though.
MichaelRR1989
Banned
prag16
Banned
You call that good news? The US is poised to disintegrate after two weeks of this. The prospect of six months is too harrowing to even consider. I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I remain unfazed and 100% all in on my original opinion from weeks ago that we're better off just ignoring this virus (aside from common sense minor precautions for all, and more aggressive precautions for the vulnerable). That means businesses open, schools open, and no possibility that we don't come out of this still living in a free society. Maybe that is imperfect, but I can sure as shit tell you that quarantining the entire goddamn world population wasn't the best path either. Everybody bend over and prepare for Patriot Act 2: Medical Tyranny Boogalo.Some good news?
Other experts now give it 6 months before things could go back to normal.
'Six months or more' before UK returns to normal from coronavirus crisis
Dr Jenny Harries insisted this will not mean a six-month lockdown but the time restrictive measures could remain in place.
F
Foamy
Unconfirmed Member
I'm going to say it should be mostly done within 4 to 6 months in North America.
May have to keep the borders closed to foreign nationals for an additional year to keep it from flaring up again.
May have to keep the borders closed to foreign nationals for an additional year to keep it from flaring up again.
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Foamy
Unconfirmed Member
*browser hung up, double post
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German Hops
Member
It will never go away. What we're witnessing now is the start of a new world order.
MichaelRR1989
Banned
PrellboGark
Banned
So I think that we will see treatments getting approved in the next 1-3 months. Those will bring down the death rate and the need for intensive care, but they won't stop the virus.
Until then we need to flatten the curve to prevent healthcare systems from collapsing. Once that has worked we can, together with hopefully discovered treatments, keep the pressure on healthcare systems manageable while opening up most parts of public life.
Risk-groups will still have to protect themselves, though.
We will have to see how far we can go without risking fast spread, I don't think there will be ball games or parades or anything like that anytime soon.
But shopping, going to work, hanging out with friends, going to restaurants etc. should be fine.
Especially when quick tests become available soon and the spread becomes more visible and trackable.
So I expected this state of things by summer, depending on how well the shutdown measures are implemented and enforced now.
At this point, there are two possible outcomes.
Every virus has this R0 value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
This determines how much a virus has to spread per host to avoid dying out.
Either our shutdown measures bring down the spread so much that it dies out, or we will struggle with this until a vaccine is available. It's hard to tell now but I think it looks like this one won't die out that easily.
A vaccine is likely to take at least another year.
That's the point where the virus will ultimately "go away".
So yeah, this will affect our daily lives for at least another year.
And once the virus is tamed, there will still be the economic fallout.
I am pretty convinced that this will change the way the world works.
This virus exposes so many flaws in so many systems, it would be a shame if we didn't learn from it and just tried to rebuild the system we had before.
Until then we need to flatten the curve to prevent healthcare systems from collapsing. Once that has worked we can, together with hopefully discovered treatments, keep the pressure on healthcare systems manageable while opening up most parts of public life.
Risk-groups will still have to protect themselves, though.
We will have to see how far we can go without risking fast spread, I don't think there will be ball games or parades or anything like that anytime soon.
But shopping, going to work, hanging out with friends, going to restaurants etc. should be fine.
Especially when quick tests become available soon and the spread becomes more visible and trackable.
So I expected this state of things by summer, depending on how well the shutdown measures are implemented and enforced now.
At this point, there are two possible outcomes.
Every virus has this R0 value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
This determines how much a virus has to spread per host to avoid dying out.
Either our shutdown measures bring down the spread so much that it dies out, or we will struggle with this until a vaccine is available. It's hard to tell now but I think it looks like this one won't die out that easily.
A vaccine is likely to take at least another year.
That's the point where the virus will ultimately "go away".
So yeah, this will affect our daily lives for at least another year.
And once the virus is tamed, there will still be the economic fallout.
I am pretty convinced that this will change the way the world works.
This virus exposes so many flaws in so many systems, it would be a shame if we didn't learn from it and just tried to rebuild the system we had before.
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Roronoa Zoro
Member
I'm not saying a vaccine will be around in 6 months, but enough treatment and testing and containment that we can reopen things will be I think. I can't picture things being closed by the holiday season but who knows
Super Mario
Banned
Depends on what your definition of go away is. The virus will not just go away anytime soon, if at all. It will mutate. I believe the answer we are most closely looking for is when the hysteria will die down. I believe by June, everyone will be done with it. From what I understand, Viruses thrive in the cold weather. Summer is rarely a time of mass illness.
I hear this a lot, but what does it really mean? We always love to talk about this perfect hindsight vision. Most of the ideas I have heard so far is making sure we have more masks, ventilators, or government agencies or even vaccines or tests for something we don't even know is coming. None of those things are fixes. If the answer is to places travel bans and quarantines sooner, is that what we really want?
I hear this a lot, but what does it really mean? We always love to talk about this perfect hindsight vision. Most of the ideas I have heard so far is making sure we have more masks, ventilators, or government agencies or even vaccines or tests for something we don't even know is coming. None of those things are fixes. If the answer is to places travel bans and quarantines sooner, is that what we really want?
Jon Neu
Banned
Yes.
Close the borders and check all the people who entered the country in the last two weeks.
You can actually prevent the virus from spreading if you do it right, which means saving a lot of time, lives and money.
TheSadRanger
Banned
Okay, but you need to take it up with the infectious disease experts. I’m not making it so by sharing their prediction. For the U.S.:
Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
In a panel, experts at UC San Francisco urged everyone over 60 to stay home and not fly. They predict up to 70% of Americans will get infected.
You’ll find similar estimates for the world at large. Social distancing slows the process, but doesn’t stop it:
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
40-70% of the world’s population within the year. Note that this does not mean we all die.
Yet South Korea and Japan have none of those projections. I'm not arguing against you about the effectiveness of only social distancing.
I'm arguing for the effective use of a combination of preventative measures that South Korea used and those methods should be applied to the west.
South Korea has a population of over 50 million people in a country that's barely a fourth of the size of Kansas. Yet it didn't grow into a wildfire there like other high population density areas. Right now they're probably looking at the west like we're fucking retarded.
JordanN
Banned
Now the estimate is down to 3 months.
www.cp24.com
Be prepared to stay inside for up to three months, Toronto's top doctor warns
Toronto’s top doctor says that residents should be prepared to continue to remain at home and only venture outside “for the most essential of needs” for the next 12 weeks.
www.cp24.com