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Wedbush's NPD predictions for October

H

h0l211

Member
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=11555

As part of his preview for October's NPD video game sales, which debut next Thursday, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has forecast overall revenues to be up 10% to $401 million, as the console transition continues to run smooth.

...

Pachter revealed that he expects October sales to be driven by new releases Vivendi’s Scarface: The World is Yours (PS2, Xbox, PSP, PC), Midway’s Mortal Kombat: Armageddon (PS2, Xbox), and Ubisoft’s Splinter Cell Double Agent (360, PS2, Xbox, GC, PC) along with continued strong sales of LucasArts’ Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy and Nintendo’s Pokemon Mystery Dungeon.

The analyst noted that, due to the timing of the NPD retail calendar, three major October releases (Take-Two’s GTA: Vice City Stories (PSP), Square Enix’s Final Fantasy XII (PS2), and Electronic Arts’ Need for Speed Carbon (360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC), will fall outside the NPD October reporting month (October 1 – October 28). Thus, it was commented: "We believe that this will limit growth this month, but should drive significant growth next month."


...

Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
h0l211 said:
Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."
Click to expand...
Interesting. That's at the high-end of other analysts expectations as well.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Interesting. That's at the high-end of other analysts expectations as well.
Click to expand...

I'm expecting closer to 500,000 in November, and 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 million in December. It should do well, but not that well.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Stopsign said:
I'm expecting closer to 500,000 in November, and 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 million in December. It should do well, but not that well.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the 360 underperformed expectations all year, with analysts only getting the past few months right when they adjusted down. The 250k in October sounds right, but that's why the Nov/Dec sound so out of whack.
 
V

valkillmore

Member
Stopsign said:
I'm expecting closer to 500,000 in November, and 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 million in December. It should do well, but not that well.
Click to expand...

Considering there are reports that PS3 production targets aren't being met, I'd say it has a chance at the higher figure.

I have no idea what I'm talking about
 
Q

qirex

Member
aztrex said:
Considering there are reports that PS3 production targets aren't being met, I'd say it has a chance at the higher figure.

I have no idea what I'm talking about
Click to expand...
Is there any evidence that PS3 shortages will necessarily translate to more 360 sales? I'd assume that the bulk of people wanting a PS3 will end up buying either other consumer electronics or PS2 games.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
qirex said:
Is there any evidence that PS3 shortages will necessarily translate to more 360 sales? I'd assume that the bulk of people wanting a PS3 will end up buying either other consumer electronics or PS2 games.
Click to expand...
has a shortage of one system ever led to sales of another? serious question.
 
H

HyperionX

Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123216

Then:
Through August, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.4 million units, and we expect monthly sales of 250,000 units in September. The Xbox 360 is now readily available, we expect Microsoft to sell approximately 400,000 hardware units in October, between 750,000 – 1 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.
Click to expand...

Now:
Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."
Click to expand...

:lol

I predict another downward prediction next month.
 
pcostabel

pcostabel

Member
h0l211 said:
Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."
Click to expand...

750 billion gamers!!!
 
T

trancejeremy

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
has a shortage of one system ever led to sales of another? serious question.
Click to expand...

Heh, if that were the case, you'd think PSP sales in Japan would be much higher, due to the DS shortages.

But his thing about parents buying kids a 360 instead of a PS3 for X-mas might be true, but I would think parents would be buying Wiis instead of a 360
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
h0l211Through September said:
Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October,[/b] 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."
Click to expand...

Uhhh...

Didn't he predict 400k for October last month? That's a pretty MASSIVE sales prediction for December as well.

"We expect it to sell as much in December as it has all year"

EDIT: Beaten! Damn.
 
S

Square2005

Banned
sonycowboy said:
Uhhh...

Didn't he predict 400k for October last month? That's a pretty MASSIVE sales prediction for December as well.

"We expect it to sell as much in December as it has all year"

EDIT: Beaten! Damn.
Click to expand...

Really!... I said awhile back 400k was crazy for October when that prediction came out but everyone said it'll happen 'cos so many begin their Christmas shopping in October!!:lol

October is almost always down MoM, b/c it's 4 weeks while Sept. is five, and no one begins X-mas shopping in October...

BTW 250k still seems high to me for Oct. It'll do closer to 200k not much more, unless Microsoft's usual seasonal 2 free game givaway promo began last month.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
If any system has shown that it can sell 750,000,000,000 units in a month, it's the 360!!

Square2005 said:
Really!... I said awhile back 400k was crazy for October when that prediction came out but everyone said it'll happen 'cos so many begin their Christmas shopping in October!!:lol

October is almost always down MoM, b/c it's 4 weeks while Sept. is five, and no one begins X-mas shopping in October...

BTW 250k still seems high to me for Oct. It'll do closer to 200k not much more, unless Microsoft's usual seasonal 2 free game givaway promo began last month.
Click to expand...
Last month was fun. I can't wait this month! :D
 
S

Striek

Member
Pachter was just revising what was obviously an insane prediction for the X360 last month for October, and next month he'll revise November down, and in January he'll revise predictions for December down.

*shrug*

He is usually off by a wide margin on monthly software sales too.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Square2005 said:
Really!... I said awhile back 400k was crazy for October when that prediction came out but everyone said it'll happen 'cos so many begin their Christmas shopping in October!!:lol

October is almost always down MoM, b/c it's 4 weeks while Sept. is five, and no one begins X-mas shopping in October...

BTW 250k still seems high to me for Oct. It'll do closer to 200k not much more, unless Microsoft's usual seasonal 2 free game givaway promo began last month.
Click to expand...
I don't recall that. I recall lots of people ridiculing the prediction from the start. 250k is sane, 400k batshit. Glad to see he came down to earth.

In October, anyways.
 
S

Striek

Member
Hmm, with their prediction of 10M 'sold' by 2007 theres no worries there.

Although they did only 'manage' to ship a rather palty 0.9M in the last quarter.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Striek said:
Hmm, with their prediction of 10M 'sold' by 2007 theres no worries there.

Although they did only 'manage' to ship a rather palty 0.9M in the last quarter.
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As someone pointed out in that thread, MS's inventory went from $1 billion to $2.5 billion last quarter as well. Some probably Zunes stocked up, but most of that increase is likely 360's ready for the holidays.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
X360 overestimated all year. This is no different.

205K October (Nothing in October will change its roughly 50K a week average)
550K November
750K December
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Mrbob said:
X360 overestimated all year. This is no different.

205K October
550K November
750K December
Click to expand...
I agree it's underperformed all year, but it HAS followed the seasonal swings very closely. No reason to expect it not to during the holidays as well. Even with low-end seasonality, those numbers are too low.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
Is 360 still having months that match the Xbox 1, which was only $199 at this point?
Click to expand...
Code: 
	Xbox		360
January	 127,939 	-	 249,000 
February	 139,123 	-	 161,000 
March	 136,388 	-	 192,000 
April	 78,142 	-	 295,381 
May	 228,914 	-	 220,877 
June	 264,618 	-	 277,000 
July	 154,204 	-	 206,000 
August	 137,277 	-	 204,000 
September	 172,748 	-	259,458
October	 239,085 	-	
November	 468,000 	-	
December	 1,033,000

360 is roasting the XBox on montly comparables. October will be closer, though.
 
S

Striek

Member
Thinking it through, depending on how much they ship to NA, they may even be able to create a highly lucrative shortage, selling near to demand but still making the X360 scarce. PR victory with little lost sales = win.

As of the end of Sep., they were only at +-600k surplus for NA, and in the next three months they will sell ~2-3M (probably ~2.5M). If they only ship half of their stock of 4M to NA...

*shrug*

Its looking much rosier than even two months ago for the X360, and I'm sure I have some statements that'll come back to bite me in the ass from before its slide into mediocrity was halted.

GhaleonEB said:
As someone pointed out in that thread, MS's inventory went from $1 billion to $2.5 billion last quarter as well. Some probably Zunes stocked up, but most of that increase is likely 360's ready for the holidays.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, thats why I had ' ' around manage. I think they're stockpiling, although I guess I don't understand the reason behind why. Shipping now or shipping later, I'm sure retailers would take stock as they make it at this point.

PR victory for the fourth quarter, maybe.
 
M

mood

Member
quetz67 said:
A console mostly depending on the competition not being available in sufficient numbers is a failure to me
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It would seem like a Sony failure to me if people swap PS3s for 360s.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
trancejeremy said:
Heh, if that were the case, you'd think PSP sales in Japan would be much higher, due to the DS shortages.
Click to expand...

or maybe they're at their current levels because of them in the first place!!
 
Y

Ynos Yrros

Banned
One question, doesn't NPD take data from like 50 retailers, and then multiply it to get the numbers? That's hardly accurate if you ask me. I think that gaf should lay off the statistics :) .

Ok, I'll play that game:

October: 207 k
November: 380k
December: 1.2 mln
 
J

jimbo

Banned
These Wedbush prediction threads suck. I want the real numbers. And honestly, the real fun won't start until next month. That's when the s*** really starts hitting the fan. Let's just skip straight to November NPD.
 
Q

Qwerty710710

a child left behind
Mrbob said:
X360 overestimated all year. This is no different.

205K October (Nothing in October will change its roughly 50K a week average)
550K November
750K December
Click to expand...

I can't wait until you eat your crow in January.

Here's mine

245K October
650K November
1.4M December
 
E

Elios83

Member
Wow I can't believe how fast time flies,it's like yesterday was E3 and now we're waiting for the datas of the last month with Xbox360 as the only next gen console in the US market.
As for Pachter's numbers I think is overstimating Xbox360 success,imo it will be difficult for MS to sell more than 1 million units in December.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Btw, did I miss the prediction thread? :?
Click to expand...

Wedbush Predictions? Check.
"NPD" in title? Check.

I think this is it, even though no one has done predictions, yet. :p

Predictions

NDS - 340K
PS2 - 264K
360 - 208K
GBA - 180K
PSP - 136K
GCN - 40K
XBX - 7K
 
K

KeithFranklin

Banned
Anyone have 2004 and 2005 September and October numbers. If I recall correctly October always (Even though 4 week month) surpasses September numbers.
 
G

Galactic Fork

A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
Might as well play too.

Predictions:

NDS - 300K
PS2 - 245K
360 - 215K
PSP - 160K
GBA - 160K
GCN - 35K
XBX - 5K
 
D

donny2112

Member
KeithFranklin said:
Anyone have 2004 and 2005 September and October numbers.
Click to expand...

Code: 
Month	PS2	XBX	GCN	GBA	NDS	PSP

Sep-04	253,295	265,067	114,789	524,767
Oct-04	380,540	215,845	108,832	443,276

Sep-05	268,000	124,000	108,000	185,000	168,000	146,000
Oct-05	252,000	136,000	110,000	208,000	136,000	132,000

Is the [ code] function fixed, now?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Ash Sparrow said:
Are numbers due this thursday?
Click to expand...

The First Sentence of the First Post said:
As part of his preview for October's NPD video game sales, which debut next Thursday, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has forecast overall revenues to be up 10% to $401 million, as the console transition continues to run smooth.
Click to expand...
Yes. :)

And guys, don't turn this into the sales prediction thread. Let SC make a proper one.
 
D

donny2112

Member
GhaleonEB said:
And guys, don't turn this into the sales prediction thread. Let SC make a proper one.
Click to expand...

If he makes a proper one, then I'll post mine again there. However, he is very hit-and-miss about whether he makes a prediction thread, so this may be all there is this month.
 
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