AstroNut325
Member
I can't believe the sales data is still released two+ weeks after the month end period. It's 2014 NPD! You should be able to crank this out in less than 24 hours after month end!
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
spatenfloot
Member
GAF will explode no matter what happens. I predict someone will melt down and get banned.
Kar
Member
Why would GAF explode if the Xbox One sells more? This is what most here expect, I think.
If the PS4 comes out on top.. oh dear.
GAF loves Sony so much there will be meltdowns either way. Expected doesn't mean everyone expects it, tons of predictions here with PS4 in the lead.
It's only Amazon and one week so far, but PS4's top selling SKU down to 41st is very interesting. PS4 dropping like a rock would really cause a stir
Dunno... I still give the XB1 winning November, but looking at the Amazon (updated) November rankings we never had quite such a situation before I think.
While the XB1 ACU bundle is sitting pretty at #2 for the month, it is followed by not one, or two PS4 SKUS, but FOUR, before the next XB1 SKU...
I used to think the difference would be between 100-200k tops, but now I think it very well could be under 100k.
A Sony win would be ... GAF ending level (for a bit) I think. It not only would show that the XB1 even sold at a big loss can't win a single month, but also that the Amazon ranking is really not that good at predicting sales ranks in the holiday period, and shatter what little fiath we have in it for predictions
December might be even worse if things continue the way they currentyl are, because the PS4 deals are so much better elsewhere than Amazon (right now), meaning its sales can't be a reliable indicator at the moment (they do not offer a $50 GC with the 1 game free bundle).
I'll double that prediction. Also, the BF price disparity has to give the One the edge this month I think. I personally find the PS4 BF value far superior, but I highly doubt many parents on a budget will take the time to learn, or ever care about the differences between two AC games and GTA and LoU.
Kar
Member
Who's GAF exactly?GAF loves Sony so much there will be meltdowns either way. Expected doesn't mean everyone expects it, tons of predictions here with PS4 in the lead.
It's only Amazon and one week so far, but PS4's top selling SKU down to 41st is very interesting. PS4 dropping like a rock would really cause a stir
SEGAvangelist
Member
It's going to be awesome and I love Aaron Greenberg. Dude knows how to push buttons and it's very entertaining. I wish more executives had fun like him.
CosmicQueso
Member
But "winning" November with less than a gap of 200k on either side will be so meaningless... If one console sells 100k more than the other, it just won't matter at all. Enjoy the bans though I guess?
First, retailers have to scrub and validate their internal data.
Then retail submits that data to NPD.
NPD then has to take in all the disparate retailer feeds, map each data point from each feed for each SKU to its own master table.
New products have to be created with new mapping.
Then those totals have to be scrubbed and validated.
If there are data errors they then have to go back to the appropriate retailer to correct.
Then the totals have to be summed to ensure everything still makes sense.
The data is then uploaded for distribution to NPD customers, and all of that has to work.
You try doing all of that in less than two weeks buddy.
First, retailers have to scrub and validate their internal data.
Then retail submits that data to NPD.
NPD then has to take in all the disparate retailer feeds, map each data point from each feed for each SKU to its own master table.
New products have to be created with new mapping.
Then those totals have to be scrubbed and validated.
If there are data errors they then have to go back to the appropriate retailer to correct.
Then the totals have to be summed to ensure everything still makes sense.
The data is then uploaded for distribution to NPD customers, and all of that has to work.
You try doing all of that in less than two weeks buddy.
Agreed my good sir.
theprodigy
Member
That's BS, we know weekly is possible.
349 price is perm yes. The ACU bundle is their holiday bundle for this year.
They could, you know, use computers, maybe?
Information systems can normally be interfaced quite easily...
CosmicQueso
Member
I forgot to include performing extrapolations and adjusting the extrap methodology monthly as market trends dictate.
Well then let it burn I guess. Let's be mad about stuff!
Sounds like a market opportunity for a motivated GAF member. I, for one, welcome our new syndicated data provider overlords.
Well then let it burn I guess. Let's be mad about stuff!
Sounds like a market opportunity for a motivated GAF member. I, for one, welcome our new syndicated data provider overlords.
GAF loves Sony so much there will be meltdowns either way. Expected doesn't mean everyone expects it, tons of predictions here with PS4 in the lead.
It's only Amazon and one week so far, but PS4's top selling SKU down to 41st is very interesting. PS4 dropping like a rock would really cause a stir
PS4 is currently at 30, 67 and 165.. XBONE is at 8 and that's it inside the top 200 or so. While XBONE is clearly outselling PS4 on Amazon, we don't by how much.
Also remember that Amazon isn't a pure hourly sales ranking. There is a lot of magic in there for velocity (aka internal marketing).
Cornbread78
Member
Yeah, I expect more than a few "Return of the King" articles to be posted praising the XB1 and MS's effort to support and grow their fanbase after the all of those allegations of improper business practices last year prior to the XB1 launch. MS did the little things needed to prove they are just as powerful as the PS4 and have a much better game library to win back the gamers hearts and be victorious in a harsh environment.
- largest growth month in the past year
- Highest Sales in NA
- breaks the tyranny of the evil Japanese corp. Sony arrogance., etc, etc.
The PS4 will now lag behind and have a hard time to maintain any kind of lead in NA wth with lackluster games library and how they lied to consumers about it's power capibilities. Also, they lied to consumers about the PSX experience, therefore, they are an untrustworthy company that has "no gamezzz"
LOL, see above fora break down of the articles you will read...
I was talking about the December rankings. I never use hourly. The XB1 also had two SKUs around 50th when it had its 399 and Madden month IIRC so it could be closer than it appears. That's why the yearly rankings are much better for accuracy (Destiny buddle comes to mind).
I don't live in the US so thanks for informing about bundles/deals happening elsewhere.
SuperSonic1305
Member
Yes, we need more insufferable trolls representing these companies. They should hire Arthur Gies while they're at it.
John Bender
Banned
Greenberg is as horrible as Yusuf Meh-di.
Yusuf is just a horrible suit. Greenberg is a troll that trolls and laughs while people take him seriously. Huge difference.
Aquamarine
Member
On the one hand, I agree...it's a ton of coordination and hard work to get it all done in a two-week time.
On the other hand, that's why The NPD Group has 1,300+ employees.
GfK is much larger (13,000+ employees), but they manage weekly data throughout Europe.
So do the Japanese trackers....and PC Data did in the USA as well before they were acquired by NPD.
So it is possible. But I don't know enough about how the company operates to know how feasible it might be to switch over to a weekly system.
CosmicQueso
Member
On second thought, don't know why I'm (if not defending) rationalizing anything NPD does.
There are so many things they're not great at, and they charge so damned much.
They should be a lot better than they are.
Oh well, digital will wipe them out eventually.
slavesnyder
Member
because you are nice.
SEGAvangelist
Member
Not even close. Yusuf just comes off like a suit. Greenberg is more of a fanboy.
Pretty much. Yusuf is just doing his job. I never know why people take offense to that.
slavesnyder
Member
Because we want classy people to represent our favourite hobby...
lol, I can also see that!
CalamityPixel
Member
[360] 300k
[3DS] 800k
[PS3] 350k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 300k
[XB1] 1100k
[3DS] 800k
[PS3] 350k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 300k
[XB1] 1100k
By being out of touch with his consumers and being a walking PR nightmare?
The guy is an idiot. who managed to fail upwards.
gotstrangepowers
Banned
[360] 200k
[3DS] 530k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 680k
[WIU] 325k
[XB1] 790k
[3DS] 530k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 680k
[WIU] 325k
[XB1] 790k
JackLongRod
Banned
We should see some type of PR tomorrow sometime from either Sony or MS or both right ?
Replacement for NPD more in-line with the no-charge Japanese sales received would be welcome. Replaced with the great black hole of information that is digital sales? Don't know. Maybe that would be reason enough for digital sales holders to start releasing more data?
SEGAvangelist
Member
He really comes off as uninformed. Shawn Layden has the same issue, but he's not a PR nightmare. I listened to a Shawn Layden interview on Sunday and he asked, "Day Z? What's that?" The host had to tell him what kind of game it was.
Yusuf on the other hand has that same aspect, but you get to add on a layer of bullshit feeding as well. He's my least fav video game executive by far.
Bitch Pudding
Member
[360] 200k
[3DS] 600k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 300k
[XB1] 1200k
[3DS] 600k
[PS3] 150k
[PS4] 900k
[WIU] 300k
[XB1] 1200k
Sony doesn't make PR about NPD, only a short statement without any sales number.
If Xbox One won Microsoft will make a pompous PR with Xbox One sales number.
MS has been releasing preemptive NPD PRs the last couple months so yeah I'd expect it win, lose or draw from them. Sony not so much.
SwiftDeath
Member
I'm actually kind of curious if MS will give sale numbers directly in their PR statement, they may decide to follow along Sony lines and simply acknowledge first place without specifics so as not to build the notion that they will be giving sales numbers in the months going forward especially considering January is just around the bend.
slavesnyder
Member
if they break the million they will tell us. otherwise most likely not. being in the first place is all they wanted.
Shawn Layden is just as much of an unlikable idiot. It's a shame that he's going to be the new face of SCEA because it's so obvious that he's also an out of touch suit.
Big Green Anus
Member
I personally just can't see Sony winning November over Microsoft due to those GREAT deals from Microsoft. If Sony does win, what can Microsoft realistically do? I can't see them cutting the price to $299.
Prediction: PS4: 650,000
Xbox One: 780,000
WII U 175,000(Smash and bundles)
Prediction: PS4: 650,000
Xbox One: 780,000
WII U 175,000(Smash and bundles)
Devilgunman
Member
They were already that low tbh. $329 + 1 game was lower than $299.