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[Javin98]

Signs of the apocalypse

No, I'm serious. It was kinda creepy when I first found out.

 

[KillerSloth]

Sorry that I think the market leader should be doing better than the third placer last gen. Clearly my expectations are far too high. 150k is great is what I meant to say. Sony should not do anything at all.

Um it is doing better then every console except the Wii which shattered records....
People are cherry picking slow months and disappear when there are string months. It's silly. One year a major game could release in June, the next June nothing skewing numbers.

 

[QaaQer]

Not specifically aimed at you, but general WiiU observation about what the NX might mean and what E3 might tell us about Nintendos future plans.

- NX is almost certainly a handheld platform of some sort. Whether longterm that means its first iteration is handheld and they are moving to a single account / hybrid system remains to be seen.
My best guess is a "third pillar" device, 7" tablet form factor, digital only (no disk or cartridge slots).

- NX is likely to debut at spaceworld in a Nintendo direct next year (possibly an E3 direct) for release next holiday WW.

- Given a platform launch is a major logistical undertaking, that puts the timeline for a home console WiiU succesor at 2017 at the earliest.

Here's where things get interesting.

- if E3 has nothing new for the WiiU, just gameplay and release dates for already known titles we know they've fully wound down on the WiiU. Would they have a console on the market for a year with no software support while waiting for the next one?
Sure.
They've done it before.

- If E3 shows the WiiU is still being actively developed for and new titles are announced - new non-eshop titles it means the WiiU is considered still a viable and profitable platform internally.
My supposition would then be that NX is actually already here, and WiiU is its first (relatively unsuccessful) iteration. Because the NX will run all WiiU titles and use all current WiiU account data, and it is worth continuing to support the WiiU, because every title developed now equates to a potential NX launch title.
At some point over the next 12 months the WiiU will get a firmware update that migrates NNIDs over to the new DeNA account system.

NX is a platform--like windows, ios, and android. Wiiu is not part of that platform because of the oddball ppc innards. Wiiu games will probably have full price NX versions, but that != wiiu being NX.

As for the HW NX will run on, well just have to wait.

I mean, to me, 136k is not "a bomb" or whatever, but is it really much more than that? I understand all your confounding factors-- new IP, essentially comatose platform-- but you also have some important counterweights. First of all, the audience buying games on the WiiU is incredibly hardcore, as evidenced by Nintendo's core software sales across the platform this year and last year. Second, there was a very significant advertising push. The 136k sounded familiar to me and I couldn't place where. Then I remembered-- that's 3Kish worse than Heavenly Sword did in September 2007 when the PS3 was essentially a zombie. I don't think that got nearly the same caveats when people were talking about its US performance. You've also got digital, so there's that, but there are also more Wii Us than there were PS3s in year 1 so I'll just consider that even.

I think it's not a catastrophic number. It's not a Wonderful 101 number. But I don't really think it's a good number or an impressive number (I'm surprised CosmicQueso said that). Given Nintendo's strength on the platform, it's basically what you'd require of the title for it to not be considered destined for B-tier Nintendo IP land.

The big question is marketing spend. $1M would mean 136k is a good number. $50M would mean 136k was poor. The fact is the only people in a position to judge Noot's performance are those with all the numbers, and they don't post here.

& just for giggles iirc the order was approx 200k for its first npd, bloodborne 390k.

 

[Jigorath]

Now there's a slow month.......ONE slow month......and welp, it's dead Jim.

Nice strawman. Find the quote where I said the PS4 is dead. I'll wait.

 

[allan-bh]

360 had numerous months at 150 and it dominated the US. People are overreacting. Where were these posts in Feb and march?

Between launch and march 2013 Xbox 360 had 1 month in the 150k range. All others were better, and the market leader during most of this period was Wii, not 360.

But is not the case to analyze only one month, PS4 YTD 2015 is virtually tie with PS3 in 2008 for example. For the market leader it's not a good place to be.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

NX is a platform--like windows, ios, and android. Wiiu is not part of that platform because of the oddball ppc innards. Wiiu games will probably have full price NX versions, but that != wiiu being NX.

I suspect that NX will be on ARM, and the 3DS ports of WiiU titles show Nintendo have a toolchain for PPC -> ARM up and running already.

 

[KingSnake]

I don't think Sony will cut PS4's price until there is an underwhelming month when there is a big game out (The Witcher 3 is not really a system seller). They're more focused on profitability and the sales of HW and SW are decent still. There's no reason to panic yet.

 

[panda-zebra]

Sorry that I think the market leader should be doing better than the third placer last gen. Clearly my expectations are far too high. 150k is great is what I meant to say. Sony should not do anything at all.

Well that's fine if you're happy to dismiss the fact that plenty of people are likely waiting for that nice looking limited silver Batman console, other people would rather not do that and instead think that maybe 150k isn't so bad in such a situation especially given the continued MSRP.

 

[Shiggy]

I don't think the Heavenly Sword comparison works here like, at all. That had roughly two and a half weeks of tracking as opposed to Splatoon which only had two days of tracking. If the head of Nintendo Canada is to be believed, they said they consider the current results to be "extraordinary" which is about the most direct statement we can have on how they're factoring the current performance. There's not really two ways around this one.

Nintendo games aren't particularly frontloaded, especially when you consider the (anecdotal admittedly) statements that many people would buy the game after more content rolls in. The legs should show pretty decently this month..

Well, the Nintendo Canada person is telling PR blabla. Everything is extraordinary and great in PR speak.

Nintendo games are just as frontloaded as other games unless they are for the casual audience or have Mario in the title. In that regard, the difference isn't too drastic. For Splatoon, I could see it selling well over time if they keep on marketing the game.

For a new game on Wii U, the Splatoon sales can be considered a success nonetheless. If we look at the general picture, its sales are okish but rather far from great.

 

[KillerSloth]

Between launch and march 2013 Xbox 360 had 1 month in the 150k range. All others were better, and the market leader during most of this period was Wii, not 360.

But is not the case to analyze only one month, PS4 YTD 2015 is virtually tie with PS3 in 2008 for example. For the market leader it's not a good place to be.

Yeah my bad I am looking at overall sales not just US that's my bad. Any slowdown in the US this gen is being made up in other territories. But I still think it is too early to say contraction. We are only starting to get current gen only games. People will jump when they no longer have a choice and the prices will drop

Also front loaded sales means demand in the market getting hit faster. Still I believe people are overreacting.

Iirc ps4 has only had 1 month at 150 k as well

 

[allan-bh]

I don't think Sony will cut PS4's price until there is an underwhelming month when there is a big game out (The Witcher 3 is not really a system seller). They're more focused on profitability and the sales of HW and SW are decent still. There's no reason to panic yet.

PS4 is doing great worldwide, but USA is a difficult market because Xbox One is a strong contender unlike mainland Europe and rest of the world.

I'm saying since 2014 that PS4 sales are not so good in there for a market leader.

 

[Mister Megative]

The problem is people phrasing this in terms of:
PS4 + XB1 versus PS3 + 360 last gen, which is ridiculous.

Even if you accept the ludicrous claim that all Wii sales last gen should be excluded because reasons, what you should be comparing is:

[GC+PS2+XB+PS3+X360] versus [PS3+X360+WiiU+PS4+XBone]
because that represents the market.



jesus christ that graph doesnt represent the wii, it represents sustained sales versus burst.

Then everyone else, including the NPD group and major gaming outlets, are all being ridiculous. Because they're all comparing sales of the new boxes to their predecessors. Yes, I'm goimg to exclude the Wii. Why? Because much like Tickle Me Elmo, it was a fad. A phenomenon. Yeah, it sold gangbusters........and then died a sudden and horrible death. There will never be another like it. There was nothing like that before it. It was a complete and utter anomaly. NORMAL console sales are what you see when you remove the Wii from the equation. And when you compare the new normal to the old, things are fine. They're just fine.

But hell, let's say the new normal is low sales April-Aug, followed by gangbusters Sept-March. I also fail to see a problem here, provided holiday sales are strong.

 

[Plinko]

- NX is almost certainly a handheld platform of some sort. Whether longterm that means its first iteration is handheld and they are moving to a single account / hybrid system remains to be seen.
My best guess is a "third pillar" device, 7" tablet form factor, digital only (no disk or cartridge slots).

So dead on arrival, then? No way a dedicated handheld like this succeeds.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Today, we are all squids.

 

[Otakumegane]

I'd be ok with an all digital handheld just not on Nintendo's current account system.

And they need game retail presence for the kids to see anyway so I doubt they'll get rid of the carts.

 

[Amused]

A lot of arguing earlier on wether or not the Xbone has been closing the gap in the US. Can we all agree on the following?

The gap is growing measured in number of units.
The gap is closing measured in market share.

In the US.

US.

Not world.

US.

 

[KillerMan91]

I don't think Sony will cut PS4's price until there is an underwhelming month when there is a big game out (The Witcher 3 is not really a system seller). They're more focused on profitability and the sales of HW and SW are decent still. There's no reason to panic yet.

Price drop doesn't have to mean that you make less money. Usually price drops are done to make more money (increased hw sales, sw sales and PS+ subscriptions). There will be price drop this fall.

 

[QaaQer]

Retail console games with legs are the ones people like to buy with a new console purchase, the ones with large mindshare like cod, Mario kart, GTA, fifa It takes years to get that kind of mindshare. Stoon might get there in the future, but I suspect the first iteration to follow the normal sales decay of regular, mere-mortal console games.

 

[OléGunner]

Horrible hardware numbers. PS4 needs a price drop and the WiiU needs to get taken behind the shed. XB1 needs to go buy a lot more 3rd party exclusives.

Hmmm unless they money hat something insane like Mass Effect or find a defining new IP, more so than Titanfall,
I don't know if that strategy is going to help them so much.

 

[QaaQer]

So dead on arrival, then? No way a dedicated handheld like this succeeds.

It is a little early to say really. Do we even know if it will be a dedicated device? Sure, they cannot compete with phones from sammy and apple, but it is possible that Nintendo will deliver a multifunction product that is actually appealing to people in the market for a tablet, either for themselves or their children.

 

[Kacho]

Bad month for hardware. Yikes.

 

[On Demand]

No, I'm serious. It was kinda creepy when I first found out.

ioi runs NPD now.

 

[Audioboxer]

Any numbers for PS4?

 

[KillerSloth]

So in June we have this for PS4:

- 2/3 weeks of PS4 TLOU + Handsome Jack Collection (Amazon) (Still Going)
- 1 week Best Buy Trade-in deal for PS4
- 1 week GameStop Free 1 year PS Plus with PS4 Purchase deal
- (All Retailers) Arkham Knight Limited Edition Bundles
- (All Retailers) Regular Black Arkham PS4 Bundles

Games:

- LEGO Jurassic World
- Payday 2: Crimewave Edition
- Devil May Cry 4: Special Edition
- Arkham Knight
- Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward
- J-Stars Victory Vs+
- Legend of Kay Anniversary
- Onechanbara Z2: Chaos

Spoiler

E3 PS4 Price Cut & 1TB PS4?

June should be a big month for ps4.

 

[Javin98]

ioi runs NPD now.

I didn't understand that reference
But I will say that the Illuminati runs NPD now.

 

[Mister Megative]

I didn't understand that reference
But I will say that the Illuminati runs NPD now.

ioi runs chartzzzzzzz.

 

[phanphare]

Any numbers for PS4?

tree fiddy

Spoiler

times 43428.57

 

[Mister Megative]

Nice strawman. Find the quote where I said the PS4 is dead. I'll wait.

The attitude certainly seems to be "it's doomed". And I wasn't referring solely to you.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I can't explain again what happened in the second part of 360's life that made it sell better than the first half, and that is an highly unusual phenomenon, that can be repeated that easily, alongisde its looong lifespan. Someone else, do it for me. ZhugeEX, I summon you to do it! Vena, you instead post that damn Wii U Only All-Time eShop Chart, for splatting reasons. That's my command.

Basically Kinect.

Coupled with the fact that the 360 actually became a serious contender after the PS3 dissappointed.

 

[KingSnake]

Price drop doesn't have to mean that you make less money. Usually price drops are done to make more money (increased hw sales, sw sales and PS+ subscriptions). There will be price drop this fall.

Sales increase in the long run should be worth the price cut. As long as big games and games bundle have the same effect in sales there is no need for a price cut.

 

[Opiate]

Bad numbers all around. Bad hardware sales even for the leaders, bad software sales, bad sales for games like Splatoon.

I do agree that people shouldn't rush to judgement about the PS4's sales, however. Last year people tended to be doom and gloom during these summer months (And the sales were bad, no question about it), but then disappeared in to the ether when November and December weren't just good months, but so good that they made up for the slow summer months and then some. Let's not repeat that cycle.

It doesn't mean you can't ever cry doom and gloom, mind you; you'll just need a longer streak than a couple summer months. If we go through 6 months here, all the way through Christmas, and sales are still consistently down, then yes, then you can reasonably be a doomsayer. I don't think that's likely to happen, though.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Bad numbers all around. Bad hardware sales even for the leaders, bad software sales, bad sales for games like Splatoon.

I do agree that people shouldn't rush to judgement about the PS4's sales, however. Last year people tended to be doom and gloom during these summer months (And the sales were bad, no question about it), but then disappeared in to the ether when November and December weren't just good months, but so good that they made up for the slow summer months and then some. Let's not repeat that cycle.

It doesn't mean you can't ever cry doom and gloom, mind you; you'll just need a longer streak than a few summer months. If we go through 6 months here, all the way through Christmas, and sales are still down, then yes, then you can reasonably be a doomsayer. I don't think that's likely to happen, though.

The market is a lot smaller anyway, no one is expecting gen 6/7 yearly sales with gen 8.

At least they shouldn't be.

 

[The Shadowkeeper]

Quietly followed quite some NPD topics, but the last months got more and more boring.

Totally ready for the $299 PS4 announcement. I would bet on it if there wasn't Europe and PS4 selling like hotcakes there.

 

[Audioboxer]

tree fiddy

Spoiler

times 43428.57

I think it's time you get an insider tag.

 

[OccamsLightsaber]

MLB: The Show still charting?

 

[ZhugeEX]

Quietly followed quite some NPD topics, but the last months got more and more boring.

Totally ready for the $299 PS4 announcement. I would bet on it if there wasn't Europe and PS4 selling like hotcakes there.

I dont see any price drop happening until Q3 personally.

 

[Javin98]

ioi runs chartzzzzzzz.

Ah, ok. Thanks. Didn't know that.

 

[The Shadowkeeper]

I dont see any price drop happening until Q3 personally.

Right now I would not bet on either outcome, but I hope it happens and I think it is the right time.

 

[sörine]

And again, we need the most updated Wii U only All-Time US Chart to be posted to understand if Splatoon really sold that well on eShop. We just have that it was higher than all Humble Bundle games on June 3rd already...which could actually be an indication of sorts. You see, current eShop charts count the sales for each title for the latest two weeks. So, for example, if Splatoon was the best selling title on the eShop on June 3rd, it doesn't mean it's just selling better than what the other titles are doing now, but that its sales are better than what those titles sold between May 20th and June 3rd, so that would take account of all Humble Bundle sales (or at least, all the codes being used) up to June 3rd. Still, we definitely need to see the All-Time Charts to get a confirmation on this matter.

Splatoon is currently #1 on the recent US charts (still ahead of the all the Humble games) and #15 on the all-time US charts (minus VC). The highest Humble title in the all-time charts is Guacamelee at #18.

I probably shouldn't have said the 82k figure earlier though since it (1) represents all of the Americas for the Humble Bundle, not just US and (2) Splatoon digital sales started before 2 weeks ago with the preload option. Still it seems to have sold exceptionally well digitally, with a higher ratio than we normally see given the chart positions and known numbers involved.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Ah, ok. Thanks. Didn't know that.

The dude used to post on GAF. He got banned for posting made up/artificially created sales figures.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Splatoon is currently #1 on the recent US charts (still ahead of the all the Humble games) and #15 on the all-time US charts (minus VC). The highest Humble title in the all-time charts is Guacamelee at #18.

I probably shouldn't have said the 82k figure earlier though since it (1) represents all of the Americas for the Humble Bundle, not just US and (2) Splatoon digital sales started before 2 weeks ago with the preload option. Still it seems to have sold exceptionally well digitally, with a higher ratio than we normally see given the chart positions and known numbers involved.

I wouldn't read too much into it tbh.

We dont know enough about how the chart ranking is worked out to definitively say what the number is.

 

[Frankfurter]

Overall:

Overall retail sales are down 13% year over year.

Hardware sales were down 18% year over year.

Retail software sales were down 25% year over year.

I'm not sure if the software sales are a significant issue considering the growth in digital sales, but that hardware sales trend... wow. 18% is a lot. Can anybody post hardware sales % changes YoY for the last couple of months? Was May just a bad month or is this a more or less solid trend?

 

[Mpl90]

Splatoon is currently #1 on the recent US charts (still ahead of the all the Humble games) and #15 on the all-time US charts (minus VC). The highest Humble title in the all-time charts is Guacamelee at #18.

I probably shouldn't have said the 82k figure earlier though since it (1) represents all of the Americas for the Humble Bundle, not just US and (2) Splatoon digital sales started before 2 weeks ago with the preload option. Still it seems to have sold exceptionally well digitally, with a higher ratio than we normally see given the chart positions and known numbers involved.

You're not Vena, but it'll be alright! Thanks a lot.
Also, saying 82,000 is incorrect for another reason: probably, there are codes that have yet to be redeemed, so there's not a 1:1 ratio between sold codes and used codes for downloads. Still, it seems to be doing well if it's 15th in the All-Time Charts in just two weeks. And above all the Humble Bundle games.

 

[Opiate]

I'm not sure if the software sales are a significant issue considering the growth in digital sales, but that hardware sales trend... wow. 18% is a lot. Can anybody post hardware sales % changes YoY for the last couple of months? Was May just a bad month or is this a more or less solid trend?

Don't worry about it for one month. If this is a sales trend for 5+ months (especially if that includes holiday months), then yes, worry. Otherwise, fluctuations are normal.

 

[KillerSloth]

I'm not sure if the software sales are a significant issue considering the growth in digital sales, but that hardware sales trend... wow. 18% is a lot. Can anybody post hardware sales % changes YoY for the last couple of months? Was May just a bad month or is this a more or less solid trend?

Comparing months is futile..last may had watchdogs and several other titles. If it continues then yes it is worrying but for 1 to 2 months it's just fluctuation.

 

[Mister Megative]

Bad numbers all around. Bad hardware sales even for the leaders, bad software sales, bad sales for games like Splatoon.

I do agree that people shouldn't rush to judgement about the PS4's sales, however. Last year people tended to be doom and gloom during these summer months (And the sales were bad, no question about it), but then disappeared in to the ether when November and December weren't just good months, but so good that they made up for the slow summer months and then some. Let's not repeat that cycle.

It doesn't mean you can't ever cry doom and gloom, mind you; you'll just need a longer streak than a couple summer months. If we go through 6 months here, all the way through Christmas, and sales are still consistently down, then yes, then you can reasonably be a doomsayer. I don't think that's likely to happen, though.

Agreed. Last holiday season was nuts. And consider this: that was with almost all major releases being cross-gen. This winter most major releases (barring CoD) are skipping 7th gen. It's going to be huge. And if THAT is the new normal......so-so sales during spring-summer followed by absolutely MASSIVE sales fall-winter......well, who cares? The industry is still healthy, as it is now, and that's what matters.

The bottom line is this: the install base of PS4/X1 is 55% higher than that of PS3/360 after the same time period. To say the industry is doomed when looking at that simply makes no sense.


Having said that, I expect next spring things will likely pick up for these slow months, considering Uncharted, The Division, and possibly Scalebound, Crackdown, etc.

 

[Kebiinu]

So Splatoon was a success, yeah? Two days of tracking placing it around 130k? That's really impressive considering the circumstances.

I didn't read the last few pages so I'm going off the most recent posts.

 

[Mister Megative]

The dude used to post on GAF. He got banned for posting made up/artificially created sales figures.

And then he built an entire website based on it.

You kinda have to admire the tenacity, sort of.

 

[allan-bh]

Agreed. Last holiday season was nuts.

Not for PS4.

 

[KillerSloth]

And then he built an entire website based on it.

You kinda have to admire the tenacity, sort of.

Lol really? Haha that's too funny.