Support NeoGAF

[shinra-bansho]

Since JVM's guesses have been indicated as being fairly accurate; is this the general shape of hardware this month then?

360 = 236K (-20.5%)
PS3 = 175K (-14.3%)
3DS = 125K (-35.6%)
WII = 91K (-47.1%)
NDS = 80K (-77.6%)
PSV = 75K
PSP = 15K

If so, wowsers at how shit everything is doing.

Even adding up all portables vs just NDS last year, they're down 17%.

 

[BurntPork]

Since JVM's guesses have been indicated as being fairly accurate; is this the general shape of hardware this month then?

360 = 236K (-20.5%)
PS3 = 175K (-14.3%)
3DS = 125K (-35.6%)
WII = 91K (-47.1%)
NDS = 80K (-77.6%)
PSV = 75K
PSP = 15K

If so, wowsers at how shit everything is doing.

To be fair, 3DS was still getting launch sales at that point.

 

[shinra-bansho]

To be fair, 3DS was still getting launch sales at that point.

I realise that, but on further inspection all portables combined this April sold 15K/week less than the NDS did alone last year. Something is rotten in the state of handhelds.

And the 3DS is now 30% cheaper and actually has software.

 

[Busaiku]

I realise that, but on further inspection all portables combined this April sold 15K/week less than the NDS did alone last year. Something is rotten in the state of handhelds.

And the 3DS is now 30% cheaper and actually has software.

Well, the actual big software on 3DS is really still just Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land, I guess you can include Kid Icarus Uprising for the last 2 months.
Nintendo has not been good on the software side outside of Japan, and it clearly shows.

 

[BKK]

Vita would be more appealing if the 3G model could be used as a phone. Not really sure why it can't, surely it already has all of the necessary hardware.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Vita would be more appealing if the 3G model could be used as a phone. Not really sure why it can't, surely it already has all of the necessary hardware.

You can skype with anyone on mobile or PC with Vita, right?

 

[Plinko]

I'm not talking about releasing another handheld, I'm talking about re-branding the Vita.

I know--I was just making a statement about their standing in the industry in general.

 

[Nilaul]

Vita would be more appealing if the 3G model could be used as a phone. Not really sure why it can't, surely it already has all of the necessary hardware.

And if it wasnt really a brick (just saying). Great portable but it definitely needs to go slimmer or more portable at-least. In the age were mobile phones are taking over everything, it makes sense to make a slim phone version.

 

[BKK]

And if it wasnt really a brick (just saying). Great portable but it definitely needs to go slimmer or more portable at-least. In the age were mobile phones are taking over everything, it makes sense to make a slim phone version.

Size isn't such an issue if you use a bluetooth headset though, and tablets seem quite popular despite their size.

 

[salpa]

I doubt Vita would do well as a phone.

If people are not buying iPhones, they are buying 4G Android phones. Vita is neither.

 

[Four_Chamber]

I don't see how Vita sales are suddenly going to improve anytime soon. I don't think a menial price cut is going to make a dent in US sales. The drastic contraction of the US handheld market makes the battle incredibly difficult for Sony. Sony has to hope for a minor miracle.

 

[BKK]

I doubt Vita would do well as a phone.

If people are not buying iPhones, they are buying 4G Android phones. Vita is neither.

But if the hardware is already there why not give people the option? Surely some people would find it a useful.

 

[Averon]

What would Vita doubling as a phone bring to the table other than giving it an identity crisis (Is it a hand held? A phone?), which, if I remember correctly, was one of the PSP's biggest criticisms? If the Vita was a phone, people would accuse it of being an unfocused mess of a device.

 

[BKK]

What would Vita doubling as a phone bring to the table other than giving it an identity crisis (Is it a hand held? A phone?), which, if I remember correctly, was one of the PSP's biggest criticisms?

For a start only requiring 1 sim card.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Random thought, but does anyone think Sony should have just called it PSP2?

 

[dude]

April portable hardware sales;

2005: 601,000
2006: 470,000
2007: 738,000
2008: 607,500
2009: 1,156,000
2010: 506,300
2011: 540,000
2012: 295,000

Handhelds are practically dead. The 3DS might still have some life in it, but overall I would be surprised if it'll sell half as good as the DS.Why would people spend hundreds of dollars on dedicated gaming devices when everyone can swing birds in their iPhone today?

Sony can still adapt, if it'll release an actually good Xperia Play. I have no ideas what Nintendo's exit strategy is going to be in like 4 years.

What would Vita doubling as a phone bring to the table other than giving it an identity crisis (Is it a hand held? A phone?), which, if I remember correctly, was one of the PSP's biggest criticisms? If the Vita was a phone, people would accuse it of being an unfocused mess of a device.

Phone are deices people need, or more accurately, currently think they need. When you brand it as a phone that can ALSO play high end game, you're giving a fighting power. It's not just some gaming device you can just play on - It's a smartphone with REAL games! People are going to but smartphoens anyway, that's the way it is right now, and most people are casual gamers i.e only play to pass the time and for a couple hours of fun here and there, so the selection they have on phones now for like 1-5$ is more than enough to the absolute most of people. The Vita would need to actually have the infrastructure to pull that off, and by that I mean it has to be Android or an OS Sony is completely committed to. People love them some apps.
Sony actually had the right plan with the PS Suite - a way to make PS games run on their Android devices. That should have been their big thing right now. The Vita was just a bad strategy.

 

[Eusis]

Random thought, but does anyone think Sony should have just called it PSP2?

I think Vita was meant to slog off the negative perception there, but it may well be that the perception wasn't really THAT negative except amongst some of the press and consumers who'd blow off a portable Playstation period, and so they could've just coasted on the recognizable name instead of making it sound like a different product entirely.

 

[salpa]

But if the hardware is already there why not give people the option? Surely some people would find it a useful.

AT&T uses separate network technologies in order to transmit data and voice.

Although Vita might have the capability to receive 3G data, that does not necessarily mean it has the capability to receive 3G voice.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I think Vita was meant to slog off the negative perception there, but it may well be that the perception wasn't really THAT negative except amongst some of the press and consumers who'd blow off a portable Playstation period, and so they could've just coasted on the recognizable name instead of making it sound like a different product entirely.

Agreed.

 

[Clear]

Why would people spend hundreds of dollars on dedicated gaming devices when everyone can swing birds in their iPhone today?

They just need to provide a differentiated experience that is valuable to people.

I see plenty of people with both phones and iPads/Tablets/smartbooks/laptops on commutes, so there is always going to be a market for a second mobile device.

The elephant in the room is that most people are non-gamers. If you want to sell a successful mobile gaming device first and foremost you need to appeal to people who are interested in games; meaning you need strong software offerings at a compelling price.

Its a smaller market than the one for general smart-devices, but that's ok.

 

[BKK]

AT&T uses separate network technologies in order to transmit data and voice.

Although Vita might have the capability to receive 3G data, that does not necessarily mean it has the capability to receive 3G voice.

AFAIK it just uses a regular mobile 3G+GPS chip.

Main issues why Vita is unappealing to me is A; No TV out, so would go unused at home. B; It's impractical to carry both a phone and handheld, so phone would obviously win everytime. If I had the option of just throwing my phone sim in Vita there would be times when I could leave the phone at home. C; Having to pay for both phone and Vita data with 2 sims.

 

[dude]

They just need to provide a differentiated experience that is valuable to people.

I see plenty of people with both phones and iPads/Tablets/smartbooks/laptops on commutes, so there is always going to be a market for a second mobile device.

The elephant in the room is that most people are non-gamers. If you want to sell a successful mobile gaming device first and foremost you need to appeal to people who are interested in games; meaning you need strong software offerings at a compelling price.

Its a smaller market than the one for general smart-devices, but that's ok.

I think it's generally too small of a market to bother - Supporting hardware is expensive. And for what? the couple on millions that are dedicated enough gamers? Why would game developers bother making games for these things when they can reach tens of million by targeting smartphones and tablets? And as more and more casual players leave the handhelds for their phones, the more money will be put on making software to those phones. And quality software will come to phones and pads as the money does (see Sword and sorcery and the likes), so even those who play frequently will find less and less reasons to spend 200$ on a new mobile device jut for games. And the circle is complete.

But yes, I agree that if you differentiate your product people will want it. I said it when the Vita was announced - It doesn't set itself apart. For a casual player the Vita is just another device right now. The 3DS, on the other hand, has that 3D thing, which a buzzword right now and can get people interested, they can't get that on anything else. I don't think that's working that well right now though, the sells are good but not amazing (though they might pick up) - I personally believe 3D is just not enough to compete with phones, but we'll have to see how that pans out... But even if 3D is enough and they manage to make it work, they're still just delaying the end. Save for a very serious shift the market, handhelds are on their way out, whether it'll be in 2 or 5 years.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Sony can still adapt, if it'll release an actually good Xperia Play.

lol. Sony's the least able to adapt given their track record.

I have no ideas what Nintendo's exit strategy is going to be in like 4 years.

Pokémon.

 

[Clear]

My feeling is that Vita and 3DS are going to perform similarly to the way that PS3 and Wii have done in the console market. Vita will do ok in the end, but it'll be a slow burn while 3DS is going to ride high for awhile than fizzle out quickly.

I don't see the 3d as being a selling point, its all about those evergreen Nintendo franchises. The 3DS's big problem is that its visuals are going to start looking very dated as handheld devices get more powerful year-on-year.

 

[Jomjom]

My feeling is that Vita and 3DS are going to perform similarly to the way that PS3 and Wii have done in the console market. Vita will do ok in the end, but it'll be a slow burn while 3DS is going to ride high for awhile than fizzle out quickly.

I don't see the 3d as being a selling point, its all about those evergreen Nintendo franchises. The 3DS's big problem is that its visuals are going to start looking very dated as handheld devices get more powerful year-on-year.

I don't think that will happen. The difference is the Wii basically got little to no 3rd party support while the 3DS already has very strong 3rd party support.

The DS's visuals were dated as soon as it released and it still handedly beat the PSP.

 

[Diablos54]

Pokémon.

God dammit I was going to say that! It's true as well, Nintendo handhelds will always exists as long as Pokemon lives.

The 3DS's big problem is that its visuals are going to start looking very dated as handheld devices get more powerful year-on-year.

Didn't hurt the original DS much.

 

[dude]

My feeling is that Vita and 3DS are going to perform similarly to the way that PS3 and Wii have done in the console market. Vita will do ok in the end, but it'll be a slow burn while 3DS is going to ride high for awhile than fizzle out quickly.

I don't see the 3d as being a selling point, its all about those evergreen Nintendo franchises. The 3DS's big problem is that its visuals are going to start looking very dated as handheld devices get more powerful year-on-year.

If Nintendo tried selling the 3DS without 3D it would be preforming like the Vita right now. (Well, maybe slightly better...)
The Nintendo franchises helps, no question about it, but Angry Birds is as big as Mario right now, if not bigger. The 3D is the real selling point here. And I also disagree about the reasons - The visuals are irrelevant at this point (as mentioned above, look at the DS.)

And I basically agree with you, but there's no way the 3DS will have Wii levels of success. It's going to be moderately successful, profitable for Nintendo, but basically dead in 3 years.
I also think it's naive to think people actually need Nintendo for Pokemon. Pokemon is a strong IP, but phones can build strong IPs, just look at Angry Birds. When the development focus is on phones, and people will want these games, the hits will come. Nintendo's franchises will not always be forever green, only as long as they're relevant. If Nintendo is going to lay back and expect new Pokemons and Marios will reverse this trend they're going to pay. They need to think of an actual strategy for mobile gaming.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

If Nintendo tried selling the 3DS without 3D it would be preforming like the Vita right now. (Well, maybe slightly better...)
The Nintendo franchises helps, no question about it, but Angry Birds is as big as Mario right now, if not bigger. The 3D is the real selling point here.

And I basically agree with you, but there's no way the 3DS will have Wii levels of success. It's going to be moderately successful, profitable for Nintendo, but basically dead in 3 years.
I also think it's naive to think people actually need Nintendo for Pokemon. Pokemon is a strong IP, but phones can build strong IPs, just look at Angry Birds. When the development focus is on phones, and people will want these games, the hits will come. Nintendo's franchises will not always be forever green, only as long as they're relevant. If Nintendo is going to lay back and expect new Pokemons and Marios will reverse this trend they're going to pay. They need to think of an actual strategy for mobile gaming.

I can play Angry Birds elsewhere. I don't need a phone to play it. I also doubt people are buying phones to play Angry Birds.

I also strongly disagree that 3D is the main selling point of the 3DS. The main selling point, for all gaming systems, is games. Always has been, always will be.

 

[BurntPork]

If Nintendo tried selling the 3DS without 3D it would be preforming like the Vita right now.

What is it with people trying to out-crazy me?

phones can build strong IPs, just look at Angry Birds.

And?

 

[dude]

I can play Angry Birds elsewhere. I don't need a phone to play it.

I also strongly disagree that 3D is the main selling point of the 3DS. The main selling point, for all gaming systems, is games. Always has been, always will be.

I feel like that's something gamers are telling themselves to make themselves feel relevant. If games were what mattered the Kinect wouldn't have been the thing to make the Xbox sell like it's an Apple product and the PS3 wouldn't be eating dust right now. Games are important, don't get me wrong, it's just that they many times come second to other things (Like the wiimote, 3D or the Kinect). As I said, I believe the 3DS without the 3D would preform just like Vita. In essence: Without something to set your product apart, you won't move it, and if you do in theory but you don't have the software to show it, you won't sell it either. You need both. That's the way the market is right now.

Angry Birds right now is considered by many as a game for their smartphones. That's where they play it, that's where it sold the most. But that's no the point - there are a million games for smartphones and most of them cost like 1.99$. Sure, they are no match in production value, but that'll change. The more profitable these games become (and they're becoming very), the more funds people will direct their way, the better games they make with better production values, and eventually hits emerge and IPs will get established. And because, as I said, games do matter (just not as much as some people think), the phones will become a viable gaming platform. Death cycle for handhelds will commence (less users, less reasons to support it, less software, less reasons to buy it, less users.)

And?

Right now there isn't that much more, not of that magnitude anyway, but I'm showing killer IP can rise in mobile games, and Angry Bird's rise was meteoric, and more will come eventually. It's a matter of focus and funds. The couple of people who are discussing making a game in their basement right now? They're talking about making it for the iPhone or iPad - That's where the people are and that's where the money is.
To be clear - that's not happening to day or tomorrow, but in 2-3 years.

 

[Erethian]

I realise that, but on further inspection all portables combined this April sold 15K/week less than the NDS did alone last year. Something is rotten in the state of handhelds.

And the 3DS is now 30% cheaper and actually has software.

I don't know if you noticed but the entire market is down in a massive way over last year.

So it'd be more appropriate to say that something is rotten in the state of dedicated gaming hardware.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

My feeling is that Vita and 3DS are going to perform similarly to the way that PS3 and Wii have done in the console market. Vita will do ok in the end, but it'll be a slow burn while 3DS is going to ride high for awhile than fizzle out quickly.

I don't see the 3d as being a selling point, its all about those evergreen Nintendo franchises. The 3DS's big problem is that its visuals are going to start looking very dated as handheld devices get more powerful year-on-year.

Same could have been said in 2004 with the PSP and DS.

 

[BurntPork]

Right now there isn't that much more, not of that magnitude anyway, but I'm showing killer IP can rise in mobile games, and Angry Bird's rise was meteoric, and more will come eventually. It's a matter of focus and funds. The couple of people who are discussing making a game in their basement right now? They're talking about making it for the iPhone or iPad - That's where the people are and that's where the money is.
To be clear - that's not happening to day or tomorrow, but in 2-3 years.

Uh-huh. Something tells me you would have said the exact same thing 2-3 years ago.

 

[mugurumakensei]

April portable hardware sales;

2005: 601,000
2006: 470,000
2007: 738,000
2008: 607,500
2009: 1,156,000
2010: 506,300
2011: 540,000
2012: 295,000

2005 wouldn't have been that great if not coming off the heels of the PSP launch. PSP sold 351,000 that month with DS + GBA combined selling only 250k w/ GBA being the higher.
Sony's position at the time was important to PSP's rather successful launch.

The chart would also look similar for home consoles.

 

[jcm]

I don't know if you noticed but the entire market is down in a massive way over last year.

So it'd be more appropriate to say that something is rotten in the state of dedicated gaming hardware.

Handhelds are at the beginning of a gen, consoles at the end. They aren't comparable.

 

[Erethian]

Handhelds are at the beginning of a gen, consoles at the end. They aren't comparable.

The traditional sales curve of dedicated gaming hardware has it performing worst at the start and end of its lifecycle.

Edit: Also it's not just hardware, but software. In a severely depressed retail videogame market it's not surprising to see the handhelds struggling.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lol at 3D being the main selling point of the 3DS.

I don't know if you noticed but the entire market is down in a massive way over last year.

So it'd be more appropriate to say that something is rotten in the state of dedicated gaming hardware.

I noticed. But the 360 is 6.5 yo, the PS3 and Wii 5.5 yo, and the successor to the latter has been announced which can't be good for sales. There's a case to be made that hardware fatigue is in play.

Two new dedicated handheld platforms have launched fairly recently. I don't think the situations are entirely comparable.

 

[jcm]

The traditional sales curve of dedicated gaming hardware has it performing worst at the start and end of its lifecycle.

Edit: Also it's not just hardware, but software. In a severely depressed retail videogame market it's not surprising to see the handhelds struggling.

I don't think the curve is symmetrical, and I'd be surprised to learn that 2 month old and 14 month old machines are expected to be slow sellers. Do you have data that support your assertion?

 

[bigtroyjon]

This is worthy of a new thread but it needs someone who can post the images so I'll let someone else make it.

Ubisoft FY conf call slide show

Lots of interesting market data included such as:
Worldwide software revenue for PS3+360, they expect it to grow again in 2012 despite all the doom and gloom retail sales are showing (slide 17)

Revenue breakdown for various game genres (slide 19)

PS3+360 revenue in 2011 compared to Xbox+PS2 in 2005. 2011 is 40% larger.(slide 30)

Also, UBI's total revenue grew despite retail revenue dropping. Pretty consistent theme among all the publishers earnings is that digital is driving growth while retail is stagnating or dropping. Trials Evo sold 500K in three weeks.

Edit- And from the Q&A, a 50 million Euro game takes 2.5 million sales to break even and it sounded like that was the rough cost for Ghost Recon Future Soldier.

Also expect AC3 to do better than AC2's 8.2 million but can't get more specific at this time.

 

[mugurumakensei]

I don't think the curve is symmetrical, and I'd be surprised to learn that 2 month old and 14 month old machines are expected to be slow sellers. Do you have data that support your assertion?

DS still hadn't hit its stride by this point, and it had had two holiday seasons by this point. PSP is really the only outlier in terms of handheld launches.

 

[milanbaros]

I wonder if the shrinking market is an indication that it's ripe for a new platform. This could really benefit Nintendo and could be an indication Sony and Microsoft have left it too late.

 

[m.i.s.]

NSMB2 is going to be HUGE. Also right after it we have Pokemon BW2, which could push 3DS sales more than some are suspecting.

If I was Nintendo, I'd seriously consider a BW2 bundle preloaded with the new eShop titles.

Not that I disagree entirely, but weren't we saying the same thing about 3D Land / Kart 7 ?

 

[Roland Deschain]

At least things like Minecraft 360 selling 1 million plus in a couple of days shows that it's not all bad news.

 

[frankie_baby]

Not that I disagree entirely, but weren't we saying the same thing about 3D Land / Kart 7 ?

I think perhaps just 2 BIG games isn't enough to sustain the system, japan got 3 and its doing just amazing

 

[Clear]

Same could have been said in 2004 with the PSP and DS.

I'm inclined to think that the dual-screen layout was a more compelling and ultimately practical USP in 2004 than 3D is now, so display resolution was less of an issue.

 

[AdventureRacing]

The real problem for the vita and the 3DS is they just don't have enough quality software. Their one selling point is that they play games and frankly there are barely any good games. Why would anyone buy a dedicated gaming handheld when they don't even have as many good games as their smartphone does?

The goal of gaming handhelds should be to get them at a cheap price and have lots of quality software. Everything else should be secondary to those goals. HW and SW prices are still too high and both the vita and 3DS need more games.

 

[Erethian]

DS still hadn't hit its stride by this point, and it had had two holiday seasons by this point. PSP is really the only outlier in terms of handheld launches.

GBA was a beast when it released, so DS and 3DS are outliers in that sense. Took the DS until 2007 to start posting really strong numbers, and it was released in 2004. Don't know what the original Gameboy was like, or Gameboy Color.

With consoles Xbox followed a weird sales curve too where its fourth year was its best, which was maybe a precursor to what would happen this generation I guess. PS2 started slow and peaked in its third year, and same (relatively speaking) with the GC. Then in their final years they'd settle back down to something close to their first year sales.

Edit: Definitely agree on the need to make handheld games, and hardware, cheaper. I think the price of the 3DS is fine but the games are too expensive, and I think the performance of previous handhelds clearly shows that the market for those devices is a lot more price sensitive than it is for consoles. I think publishers confused the reception to $60 console games with a consumer acceptance that they can raise the price on all software, which just isn't the case.

 

[mugurumakensei]

GBA was a beast when it released, so DS and 3DS are outliers in that sense. Took the DS until 2007 to start posting really strong numbers, and it was released in 2004. Don't know what the original Gameboy was like, or Gameboy Color.

GB and GBC were slowburners as well. Also, the PSP had a noticeably better launch than GBA which is relevant to the snapshot of handheld systems from 2005-present.

For all the bad things that can be said about how the PSP was handle, the one thing did right was the launch. With Vita, Sony didn't even get that right.

 

[test_account]

You can skype with anyone on mobile or PC with Vita, right?

Yep, i tried it a while ago, Vita to Phone on Skype, works great The Skype app for Vita is missing a pretty big thing though, and that is that you cant add contacts. I think that it is possible to import from PC somehow, but still. I have no idea why they dont have a function in the Vita app that allows you to add contacts directly.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

My feeling is that Vita and 3DS are going to perform similarly to the way that PS3 and Wii have done in the console market. Vita will do ok in the end, but it'll be a slow burn while 3DS is going to ride high for awhile than fizzle out quickly.

I don't see the 3d as being a selling point, its all about those evergreen Nintendo franchises. The 3DS's big problem is that its visuals are going to start looking very dated as handheld devices get more powerful year-on-year.

If we're talking US sales, the PSP has been the most fad-like console of the past 20 years (going from a best-seller to beyond irrelevant inside of 4 years), and it was clearly graphically superior for its entire life cycle. Even then, I would argue that its explosive early sales were due to software support, not graphics.

I just don't see a realistic scenario where Sony snags two exclusive GTA games this generation, definitely not GTA episodes quality.