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[Coulomb_Barrier]

People in the US are still buying all those 360's?

For what games? Gears? Smh.

Wonder what effect TLOU has on PS3 numbers.

 

[secondspace]

People in the US are still buying all those 360's?

For what games? Gears? Smh.

Anyone buying now is probably doing it for EA Sports or COD with friends or the back catalogue.

 

[metalslimer]

People in the US are still buying all those 360's?

For what games? Gears? Smh.

Wonder what effect TLOU has on PS3 numbers.

All those? How is 130k all those. The 360 has an amazing library at this point and everyone's friends probably has one too. It amazes me people don't understand why the 360 sells as if buying a 360 is some kind of heresy.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

3DS, PS1, Gamecube to name a few

 

[allan-bh]

So I found these figures for Wii U and Vita April NPD.

I know they are in line with Creamsugar's leaks, but I have no idea if they are actually correct, so take with a massive grain of salt:

Vita - 15,000 units sold in April

Wii U - 38,000 units sold in April

That's exactly jvm estimate.

 

[Four_Chamber]

So I found these figures for Wii U and Vita April NPD.

I know they are in line with Creamsugar's leaks, but I have no idea if they are actually correct, so take with a massive grain of salt:

Vita - 15,000 units sold in April

Wii U - 38,000 units sold in April

15,000 units? LOL, thats just downright sad. Again, I have never seen a Vita out in the wild so I'm still surprised that its selling even that many. I know one person with a Wii U.

 

[Aquamarine]

That's exactly jvm estimate.

I've been questioning it more and more as the time goes by. I'll rescind my "it's probably accurate as the official NPD number" claim for now.

Right now, we have Wii U and Vita numbers within 1,000-3,000 potential.

Vita is 15,000-18,000.
Wii U is 37,000-38,000.

But trying to discern exactly how many consoles sold is just splitting hairs at this point, especially considering how NPD uses projections for some of their calculations.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Pachter responded to my tweet regarding jvm's estimates.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Pachter responded to my tweet regarding jvm's estimates.

Wii U only 38k? ouch

 

[Sandfox]

Anyone who expected Injustice to bomb underestimated the power that the DC license currently has.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

So 3DS has to be a bit higher then? 120k?

 

[kobashi100]

Them Wii U and Vita sales are so bad!

 

[A Human Becoming]

So 3DS has to be a bit higher then? 120k?

Just remember the total has to equal 494K. If creamsguar answers my question regarding the DS number in relation to the Wii U + Vita sales that should get us closer to the answer.

I imagine the DS and 3DS must be off by more than +/- 5k.

 

[allan-bh]

I supose 3DS is more ~110k than ~100k. Don't know if DS is wrong for more or less.

Let's se if jvm or others can work on new estimate.

 

[Aquamarine]

Pachter responded to my tweet regarding jvm's estimates.

That's exactly what I said to you, silly...3DS and DS estimates are off.

 

[JaxJag]

People in the US are still buying all those 360's?

For what games? Gears? Smh.

Wonder what effect TLOU has on PS3 numbers.

Yeah, the 360's library is awful. Never got all those great 3rd party games like Tomb Raider, BioShock Infinite, Call of Duty's, Skyrim, doesn't have great exclusives like Gears, Halo, and Forza. Has a terrible digital library of stuff like Minecraft, Bastion, Monaco, and Terraria.

Just an awful system.

 

[jvm]

If you're paying attention to the segment figures (do y'all get those regularly?) you know that NPD have been revising upward the hardware and software figures from last year. That means that our estimates for last year's hardware may be out of date. Perhaps the 494K is wrong because our base value is wrong, I.e. too low.

Edit: The figures move around. In this case, I should have said hardware was revised downward for the month. See post further down.

 

[FrankT]

15,000 is a system that will not be coming back.

 

[JordoftheDead]

All those? How is 130k all those. The 360 has an amazing library at this point and everyone's friends probably has one too. It amazes me people don't understand why the 360 sells as if buying a 360 is some kind of heresy.

This.

Anyone who doesn't acknowledge the 360 as a great games platform at this point in the generation need to get their head checked.

 

[1-D_FTW]

15,000 is a system that will not be coming back.

It's a figure that makes it ripe for one of Target's batty clearance sales (You know the kind. Where they go from 10 percent off one week, to 70 percent off the next).

 

[Concept17]

This.

Anyone who doesn't acknowledge the 360 as a great games platform at this point in the generation need to get their head checked.

He probably is trying to say he's surprised it is selling well despite its anemic first party offerings over the last two years.

 

[liger05]

15k vita, damn that's horrific. Wii u in huge trouble but it does have cards left to play although not sure those big titles will offer more than temporary boosts.

Even if the vita gets a price cut can it really start shifting a respectable number of units. 15k is beyond belief!!

 

[Thunder Monkey]

15,000 is a system that will not be coming back.

40,000 is as well honestly.

America is by far Nintendo's largest market. To be selling 40,000 units in month six? I may have to revise my WiiU projections from "at least 32 million units in five years" to "is this even going to get to year three?"

 

[Duxxy3]

E3 is make or break for the Wii U and Vita.

 

[Daingurse]

40,000 is as well honestly.

America is by far Nintendo's largest market. To be selling 40,000 units in month six? I may have to revise my WiiU projections from "at least 32 million units in five years" to "is this even going to get to year three?"

When people suggest a Wii-U revival, ala the 3DS, it makes me wonder if people truly understand just how bad the Wii-U is selling. Sure the sales will pick up eventually but, I can't see it recovering in any truly meaningful way. I just can't see this as anything but a failure after the Wii and I doubt Nintendo would disagree.

 

[jvm]

Like I said before, there's slop in the numbers. But feel free to suggest improvements.

It's entirely possible that ASPs changed a lot.

 

[ascii42]

Like I said before, there's slop in the numbers. But feel free to suggest improvements.

It's entirely possible that ASPs changed a lot.

$80 for PSP and PS2? $109 was what Walmart charged me for the PS2 I bought recently. MSRP's supposed to be $100, but it's tricky to find one for that (or find one at all).

 

[Aquamarine]

Like I said before, there's slop in the numbers. But feel free to suggest improvements.

It's entirely possible that ASPs changed a lot.

Those numbers are all within ~5K of what I would project for this NPD month.

Given the inherent margin of error within all NPD data, I say those estimates are definitely good enough for predictions going forward.

Thanks as always, jvm.

 

[Zoramon089]

40,000 is as well honestly.

America is by far Nintendo's largest market. To be selling 40,000 units in month six? I may have to revise my WiiU projections from "at least 32 million units in five years" to "is this even going to get to year three?"

No, not really, when that system has had no big releases for it...people need to stop comparing the Wii U and Vita situations. I feel like they're almost equated because people intentionally ignore the releases for the system and look purely at numbers. There's no other way they're comparable

 

[LQX]

People in the US are still buying all those 360's?

For what games? Gears? Smh.

Wonder what effect TLOU has on PS3 numbers.

New games are still released for the 360 you know. Tomb Raider just came out this year.

 

[jvm]

I misspoke earlier. I should have said that NPD was revising software up and hardware down, in terms of dollars. I will amend my post.

Last year April 2012 hardware was estimated at $189.7mm.
This year April 2012 hardware was estimated at $187.8mm.

Sorry about that.

 

[ascii42]

New games are still released for the 360 you know. Tomb Raider just came out this year.

Not to mention over 7 years of back catalog.

 

[jvm]

If my figures are right, total retail industry YTD 2013 is 1.5% ahead of comparable YTD 2006 figure.

Hardware and software are each down 10% or more in terms of dollars. Accessories are up 90%. (Yes, ninety. Hello, Skylanders and points cards. And headphones, apparently.)

 

[pieatorium]

If my figures are right, total retail industry YTD 2013 is 1.5% ahead of comparable YTD 2006 figure.

Hardware and software are each down 10% or more in terms of dollars. Accessories are up 90%. (Yes, ninety.)

Any idea what acceories? Kinnects mostly I'd assume? Moves(heh)?

Pretty sure Skylanders was down yoy and I'd assume not many who own a WiiU would need to get new Wiimotes for multiplayer.

 

[jvm]

Any idea what acceories? Kinnects mostly I'd assume? Moves(heh)?

Pretty sure Skylanders was down yoy and I'd assume not many who own a WiiU would need to get new Wiimotes for multiplayer.

Stealth edited while you were replying.

Skylanders are the leading accessory, still, I think. But NPD regularly mentions points cards and headphones as important accessories in their analyst notes.

Unfortunately, this sector is one of the most opaque. I have only seen hard accessory data a handful of times, and on background only. Also, not from NPD directly. I don't know why it's that way, but it is.

Edit: Also, I believe most analysts only subscribe to NPD's hardware and software service. For example, the last time he mentioned it to me in email, Pachter told me he didn't subscribe to accessory data.

 

[Kusagari]

He probably is trying to say he's surprised it is selling well despite its anemic first party offerings over the last two years.

Anyone who seriously cares about first parties on either system likely owns a 360/PS3 by now. These sales are all to stragglers who might finally be jumping into this generation.

 

[pieatorium]

Stealth edited while you were replying.

Skylanders are the leading accessory, still, I think. But NPD regularly mentions points cards and headphones as important accessories in their analyst notes.

Unfortunately, this sector is one of the most opaque. I have only seen hard accessory data a handful of times, and on background only. Also, not from NPD directly. I don't know why it's that way, but it is.

Cheers. Bit weird that their isn't as much focused it was a pretty huge market chunk early in the gen with GH, RB etc all the way up to the first udraw. I guess With Skylanders it's Jumped again and with infinity on the way likely to jump again later this year.

 

[AZ Greg]

38,000

lol.

Seems like just yesterday when people here were laughing at Pachter's 40-50 million WiiU lifetime sales prediction as being laughably low.

As I thought, looks like it'll end up being laughably high.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No, not really, when that system has had no big releases for it...people need to stop comparing the Wii U and Vita situations. I feel like they're almost equated because people intentionally ignore the releases for the system and look purely at numbers. There's no other way they're comparable

People are looking at the numbers and the release schedule, and still coming to the conclusion that a grand revival is not happening.

The sticking point of course is, what exactly would be considered a grand revival. The system is currently selling ~9K a week in the US; what do you expect that number to rebound to?

At current rate, by the time Pikmin 3 comes out the system will have been on the market for 9 months and would have only sold 1.25M (assuming sales don't dip in the Summer months, which they likely will.)

Splinter Cell: Blacklist that comes out in the same month, is being looked upon as a barometer by third parties, and given that installed base growth, or lack thereof, it will be lucky to sell much more than the 20K that Injustice did.

EA has already bailed, if projects like Injustice and Blacklist continue to tank then Warner and Ubisoft will eventually too, at least with their "core" properties.

 

[Duxxy3]

38,000

lol.

Seems like just yesterday when people here were laughing at Pachter's 40-50 million WiiU lifetime sales prediction as being laughably low.

As I thought, looks like it'll end up being laughably high.

If the Wii U hits 25 million it will be a miracle.

 

[allan-bh]

Like I said before, there's slop in the numbers. But feel free to suggest improvements.

It's entirely possible that ASPs changed a lot.

Nice work

 

[leatherhat]

WiiU sales need to quadruple just to be mediocre

 

[Thunder Monkey]

WiiU sales need to quadruple just to be mediocre

Quadrupling would put it around GCN levels actually. In comparison that would be really good, overall? It's good if a userbase around 10-15 million units in America is the intention.

 

[A Human Becoming]

That's exactly what I said to you, silly...3DS and DS estimates are off.

I just told you how I got those numbers.

Those numbers are all within ~5K of what I would project for this NPD month.

Given the inherent margin of error within all NPD data, I say those estimates are definitely good enough for predictions going forward.

Thanks as always, jvm.

I like how once they're within your projections they're "good enough".

 

[ArtHands]

15k for Vita is brutal for a system less than 2 years on the shelf.

 

[etrain911]

I think the dichotomy between Sony and Nintendo is kind of interesting with the Ps4 looking like it will sell a decent number and the Wii U doing abysmally. Meanwhile, the 3DS has been selling really well and the Vita has been doing fairly terribly.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I think the dichotomy between Sony and Nintendo is kind of interesting with the Ps4 looking like it will sell a decent number and the Wii U doing abysmally. Meanwhile, the 3DS has been selling really well and the Vita has been doing fairly terribly.

Based on what? GAF hype?

 

[H_Prestige]

Based on what? GAF hype?

Unless the market itself collapses it should have a decent future at the least.

 

[Meus Renaissance]

I was seriously considering getting a Vita until I looked at the software library available to me between that and the 3DS. Very simple decision after that. I've little sympathy for Sony

 

[Alrus]

I think the dichotomy between Sony and Nintendo is kind of interesting with the Ps4 looking like it will sell a decent number and the Wii U doing abysmally. Meanwhile, the 3DS has been selling really well and the Vita has been doing fairly terribly.

The 3DS is merely selling okay outside of Japan. It should do better by the end of the year with the slew of high profile releases it's getting though. The Vita selling abysmally doesn't really mean anything for it.

PS4's early success at least depends on a lot of thing we still don't know about. Price, launch lineup and the like. There's a lot of hype for it but hype doesn't really mean anything, there was a lot of hype for the Vita (and earlier, the 3DS) too. E3 and TGS will be very interesting this year