I expect a new XBOX in 2018. What i see is something like:
[2013] 3,000,000
[2014] 7,500,000
[2015] 8,500,000
[2016] 9,000,000
[2017] 6,500,000
[2018] 3,500,000
[2019] 1,500,000
[2020] 500,000
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EA: PS4+Xbox One install base at over 55m Worldwide.
- Thread starter BY2K
- Start date
I expect a new XBOX in 2018. What i see is something like:
[2013] 3,000,000
[2014] 7,500,000
[2015] 8,500,000
[2016] 9,000,000
[2017] 6,500,000
[2018] 3,500,000
[2019] 1,500,000
[2020] 500,000
Literally presenting bad news in order to not cause a panic is disingenuous and unscrupulous. Arguing that their jobs rely on being unscrupulous and you'd be equally as much a lier in similar circumstance does not speak well of any one involved.
As Giles Fraser wrote:
The request for clemency by one of the key architects of the Holocaust is a grim reminder: being ordinary is no protection against doing great evil
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hmann-final-message-architects-holocaust-evil
serversurfer
Member
Well, the dude said "at 55M," which seems like an awfully round number, but if we take it at face value, EA would have Bone "at 19M." (19.1M, I guess.)
Someone at MS gave Mary Jo Foley "around 18M" as a number for the Bone, but it's not super clear what they were actually describing. In theory, it was just Bones that had used W10 in the four weeks preceding, but it could've easily been a count of the total number of Bones.
Could Bone be at 17.9M, and EA estimated 18.3M or even 18.7M then called that 55M total? That seems entirely possible. Could MJ's leak have really been describing activations, and the actual sell through is closer to 19M? Perhaps, but I still find it unlikely an MS rep would say "around 18" when they could've easily said, "nearly 19," or even, "around 19," knowing we'd never have any more than vague stuff like this to check it against.
So, 18M-19M seems pretty reasonable. I'd guess towards the lower end, but I can see those inclined to be generous favoring the upper end. Seems unlikely to be much outside that range though.
Someone at MS gave Mary Jo Foley "around 18M" as a number for the Bone, but it's not super clear what they were actually describing. In theory, it was just Bones that had used W10 in the four weeks preceding, but it could've easily been a count of the total number of Bones.
Could Bone be at 17.9M, and EA estimated 18.3M or even 18.7M then called that 55M total? That seems entirely possible. Could MJ's leak have really been describing activations, and the actual sell through is closer to 19M? Perhaps, but I still find it unlikely an MS rep would say "around 18" when they could've easily said, "nearly 19," or even, "around 19," knowing we'd never have any more than vague stuff like this to check it against.
So, 18M-19M seems pretty reasonable. I'd guess towards the lower end, but I can see those inclined to be generous favoring the upper end. Seems unlikely to be much outside that range though.
I'm curious as to how focusing on MAU instead of console sales numbers is disingenuous to investors? With Xbox expanding across multiple platforms, wouldn't they be more concerned about the total amount of users and the money they bring in if they have the potential to more than make up for not being the current console leader?
You don't really understand how a publicly traded business works then, do you?
And MAUs are useful, otherwise they wouldn't use it. You don't put meaningless data in reports, and you certainly use the measures that generate the least speculation and panic.
But sales quantity allows for more speculation that MAU.
And they're not lying. They're using other measures that still mean something but doesn't hurt them as much. It's a balance. They could have used MAUs instead of sales numbers even if they were on top of Sony, but doing so would benefit them less. Now it benefits them more.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
I'd say it's around 19m - 19.2 myself. We know the PS4 was around 36m.
Because the decision is correlated with their (MS) lessening console sales. In the same way that PS4's success has led to Sony halting combined "Sony Family" sales figures and refers to PS4 sales/shipped.
It is meaningless, they (MS) sell actual consumer hardware units, they now no longer tell their shareholders how many of them have been sold to consumers.
Why would you need to manipulate data to lead to less speculation and panic.... begs the question doesn't it: Why do humans lie?
orthodoxy1095
Banned
What
ninjablade
Banned
only 100 million for ps4? that's way to low. it's not gonna fall off like wii, and it's only 10-12 million over ps3, when, it more then doubling the sales now.
therealbigrich
Member
Omnistalgic
Member
I agree with that principle, the "Golden Rule" if you will. And, sure maybe it's a little mean to mock the Mau stuff. I don't like what little I've seen from the company's gaming division and definitely enjoy the mocking.
This was going to be a rebuttal, but now I see, "meh" it's just nicer not to do it. You're right man.
That seems rather unlikely given what we know of major European markets.
You need to deal with the fact Xbone sales are so low MS can't bear to tell us what they actually are.
What was Activision's reasoning for not disclosing Destiny total sales? And it's correlated in the sense that if they were in the lead, we would probably get both numbers but since they're not, they're reporting important numbers to stockholders. It's obvious why they're focused on MAU users if they're building an ecosystem across consoles, PC and mobile with a possible shared app/game store and why they're giving Windows 10 away for free. But I don't think them bringing up MAU was purely because they're in second place.
You're acting like MS didn't tell them they took a loss on hardware at all. It's "hey, we didn't sell as much hardware as we did last time but we did have an increase of paying users enter our ecosystem. Either by XB1 or XBL users have upgraded to Windows 10 and used the app."
They're not withholding them because they're disgustingly low, they're withholding them because they're low in comparison to Sony's.
Well the OP's post did say over 55million...
My healthy rounding would be at 36 an 20 =P.
Either way, this is good for the industry. Wonder if its even worth it for console makers to release the slim models yet (if they are even ready yet that is..), since they are not really losing coin on every console sold and digital game sales from there respective stores are on the rise, which results in greater profit per game vs retail.
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
there's always a risk for a product to taper off but I do agree the ps4 likely won't
the fuck is the second thing you said
ninjablade
Banned
Sorry I meant 100 million will only be 10-12 million over ps3 Ltd sales, which is unlikely since the PS4 has more then doubled ps3 sales in the same time frame.
Leafhopper
Banned
...What?
What does Activision obfuscating their units sold have to do with MS hiding their units sold/shipped to consumers?
When did i make an argument that MS was not telling MS shareholders about taking losses on hardware? Whom or what are you blithering at?
ninjablade
Banned
not for a sony console, and not for ps4, considering it's selling faster then ps2.
AgentP
Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
He's banned and on twitter slandering Gaf.
Thats a lot of consoles for sure.
Personally, I'm salty that MS couldn't fix my XBO error back in November of last year. They told me I had to hard reset, and re-download all my shit. I'm letting XBL run out, not re-upping. Soooo yea....not a fan anymore.
Personally, I'm salty that MS couldn't fix my XBO error back in November of last year. They told me I had to hard reset, and re-download all my shit. I'm letting XBL run out, not re-upping. Soooo yea....not a fan anymore.
Only 5 systems in 30 years of gaming sold 100 million or more. Only 3 of those were home consoles.
PlayStation 2
DS
Game Boy/Game Boy Color
The original PlayStation
And the Wii
And in this age of gaming being pretty much dominated by mobile, 100 Million for a single system would be a feat.
ninjablade
Banned
yea i see what you're saying, but imo ps4 will easily be the second best selling console of all time, it will easily do over 110 million, considering the ps2 had a 100$ price drop, and ps4 only 50$ and ps4 is still selling at a faster rate. every playstation console has sold 100 million except for ps3, and that was a massive fuck up in so many ways.
The gen is still young, you never know what might happen, if sales are gonna slow down because of whatever reasons.
SmartWaffles
Member
Both PS4 and Xbone are selling faster than their predecessors at the same time frame. In the case of Xbone, it is slightly ahead of Xbox 360, while the PS4 is in super sonic mode compared to a expensive and stock restrained PS3.
ninjablade
Banned
yea but there are no signs of at happening. rockstar hasn't even released there first exclusive nextgen games yet. imagine a 249$ GTA6 ps4 bundle in 2017. that alone should sell 40 million ps4's in a few years.
Liabe Brave
Member
I'm afraid you don't know what significant digits are. They aren't "numbers after the decimal point". They are numbers which provide actual information and not spurious precision. In this case, I'm saying there's really only one such digit--the tens--and the ones digit is falsely precise.
Full disclosure: I have worked in business analysis for several decades. I can very much assure you that numbers of interest to investors can be rounded not just by millions, but by tens of millions, when publicly stated. Not everything is held to the same rigor as financial data.
Indeed, you should be extra wary of guidance that purports to be extremely precise. That can be caused by overfitting in the company's analytical tools.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
Hm, going back to read the 2015 PS4/XOne/WiiU Sales recap thread is nothing short of embarrassing. Even going back to the AMD thread where they said >50m consoles sold. A lot of pessimism for XOne.
But nearing 20m consoles just a tad over 2 years on the shelves is a pretty good rate.
Doubt it'll stop little gems like this being posted, though.
But nearing 20m consoles just a tad over 2 years on the shelves is a pretty good rate.
Doubt it'll stop little gems like this being posted, though.
joecanada
Member
So your healthy rounding added 100K to ps4 and about 900K to xbox?
Fair enough, you have first hand experience so I withdraw my earlier comment.
Still weirded out that there's possibility for such large overestimation, I would have assumed a certain degree of precision when presenting such value.
As for the significant digit, I mixed up what I remembered it was. I've written an exam not long ago where the professor wanted us to use 4 decimal points throughout our calculations, my brain was still stuck on that.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
And in the meantime MS would consider 35 million lifetime sales a MAU success.
PC has sold 12.8 billion over its lifetime. It is totally winning.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Well someone in this thread compared MAUs to bullets fired in CoD or something, so I can see how some might find those numbers useless.
{insert code here}
Member
So then with 37.7 million Ps4's that leaves about 17.3 million for the bone. Sounds about right. Dat 2:1 ratio, can they hit 3:1?
tattooed_dwarf
Member
What?
{insert code here}
Member
There's a thread on it PS4 is at 37.7 as of Dec 2015. No clue where people are getting 19 million X1 from.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Shipments yes, not sold through.
{insert code here}
Member
Math
EA estimate 55 million for LTD end of calendar 2015
Subtracted by Sony's 35.9 million number for LTD as of Jan 3 2016