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February 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 11
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
DragonSworne
Banned
64k without a game released since launch.
Impressive
Impressive
shinra-bansho
Member
So, so far:
[360] 302K (Δ=23K)
[3DS] 189 (Δ=9K)
[PS3] 262K (Δ=12K)
[PSV] 38K (Δ=3K)
[WIU] 66K (Δ=11K)
All Δ=58K
Not bad.
....really now...
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
you must be very easily impressed
specialguy
Banned
he may have been sarcastic.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
28k off on the 360 and 16k off on WiiU isn't the greatest, but being within 5k on every other system (going by jvm's estimates) is pretty nice.
pieatorium
Member
over predicted everything except WiiU, since I over predicted WiiU by 100k last month i guess it works out...
I need to be alot more pessimistic it seems
I need to be alot more pessimistic it seems
[360] 260K (off by 42k)
[3DS] 190K (correct)
[PS3] 210K (off by 60k)
[PSV] 40K (off by 2k)
[WIU] 60K (off by 6k)
Really excited for the Feb. NPD, but more for game sales than anything. Hoping FE: Awakening did really well, and that Sly 4 didn't totally crater
I did pretty good this month, aside from PS360 numbers. And Sly 4 didn't totally crater!
metalslimer
Member
Eek, 360 and Ps3 are much stronger than i thought.
Going with shinra-bansho's estimates from the NPD thread.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=50200314&postcount=1706
NeoGAF Prediction Results - February 2013
Units
1. Bruno MB - 48,000
2. Shion - 51,000
3. ItWasMeantToBe19 - 52,000
3. archnemesis - 52,000
5. CorporateClown - 53,000
6. shinra-bansho - 58,000
7. Foshy - 59,000
8. Road - 61,000
8. andy_lhc - 61,000
10. Goldmund - 69,000
11. sacrificengineer - 70,000
12. rayner - 71,000
13. MasterSheen - 79,000
14. nhlducks35 - 80,000
15. GAF_Agg - 80,700
16. TurkishEmperor - 86,000
17. DaBoss - 92,000
17. kswiston - 92,000
19. Aquamarine - 93,000
20. strangedopamine - 94,000
21. doicare - 96,000
22. Jonsoncao - 97,000
22. Megadragon15 - 97,000
24. idlewild_ - 98,000
25. jvm - 101,000
26. Cheebo - 103,000
26. Drago - 103,000
28. Sakura - 107,000
29. Pachterballs - 109,000
30. Chico Terry - 110,000
30. airmangataosenai - 110,000
32. allan-bh - 114,000
33. pieatorium - 115,000
34. CouldBeWorse - 120,000
35. donny2112 - 127,000
35. dreamghost - 127,000
37. Wickerbasket - 129,000
38. Elios83 - 132,000
39. BlackJace - 135,000
40. confuziz - 137,000
41. Zero-Crescent - 139,000
42. DrWong - 143,000
43. Yawnier - 152,000
44. Osiris - 156,000
45. DasMarcos - 164,000
46. Gianni Merryman - 169,000
47. Hammer24 - 170,000
48. EMT0 - 171,000
49. metalslimer - 177,000
49. skedar897 - 177,000
51. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 189,000
52. michaelius - 193,000
53. Wynnebeck - 195,000
53. prag16 - 195,000
55. Colonel Mustard - 207,000
56. Burnburn - 212,000
57. GulAtiCa - 214,000
58. Rinj von Scoot - 217,000
59. Cheech - 222,000
60. Gonzo The Great - 225,000
61. statham - 235,000
62. Jamix012 - 240,000
62. darkside31337 - 240,000
64. Pachter - 270,000
65. Dysun - 272,000
66. Tagg9 - 277,000
67. Jesse2040 - 293,000
68. perfectchaos007 - 324,000
69. Strike - 327,000
70. Baconsammy - 357,000
71. UberTag - 392,000
72. Spongebob - 422,000
Points
Congratulations, Bruno MB!
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=50200314&postcount=1706
NeoGAF Prediction Results - February 2013
Units
1. Bruno MB - 48,000
2. Shion - 51,000
3. ItWasMeantToBe19 - 52,000
3. archnemesis - 52,000
5. CorporateClown - 53,000
6. shinra-bansho - 58,000
7. Foshy - 59,000
8. Road - 61,000
8. andy_lhc - 61,000
10. Goldmund - 69,000
11. sacrificengineer - 70,000
12. rayner - 71,000
13. MasterSheen - 79,000
14. nhlducks35 - 80,000
15. GAF_Agg - 80,700
16. TurkishEmperor - 86,000
17. DaBoss - 92,000
17. kswiston - 92,000
19. Aquamarine - 93,000
20. strangedopamine - 94,000
21. doicare - 96,000
22. Jonsoncao - 97,000
22. Megadragon15 - 97,000
24. idlewild_ - 98,000
25. jvm - 101,000
26. Cheebo - 103,000
26. Drago - 103,000
28. Sakura - 107,000
29. Pachterballs - 109,000
30. Chico Terry - 110,000
30. airmangataosenai - 110,000
32. allan-bh - 114,000
33. pieatorium - 115,000
34. CouldBeWorse - 120,000
35. donny2112 - 127,000
35. dreamghost - 127,000
37. Wickerbasket - 129,000
38. Elios83 - 132,000
39. BlackJace - 135,000
40. confuziz - 137,000
41. Zero-Crescent - 139,000
42. DrWong - 143,000
43. Yawnier - 152,000
44. Osiris - 156,000
45. DasMarcos - 164,000
46. Gianni Merryman - 169,000
47. Hammer24 - 170,000
48. EMT0 - 171,000
49. metalslimer - 177,000
49. skedar897 - 177,000
51. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 189,000
52. michaelius - 193,000
53. Wynnebeck - 195,000
53. prag16 - 195,000
55. Colonel Mustard - 207,000
56. Burnburn - 212,000
57. GulAtiCa - 214,000
58. Rinj von Scoot - 217,000
59. Cheech - 222,000
60. Gonzo The Great - 225,000
61. statham - 235,000
62. Jamix012 - 240,000
62. darkside31337 - 240,000
64. Pachter - 270,000
65. Dysun - 272,000
66. Tagg9 - 277,000
67. Jesse2040 - 293,000
68. perfectchaos007 - 324,000
69. Strike - 327,000
70. Baconsammy - 357,000
71. UberTag - 392,000
72. Spongebob - 422,000
Points
Code:
February 2013 Overall 2013 Top (2/2)
01. Bruno MB 122.73 Bruno MB 184.11
02. Shion 117.77 ItWasMeantToBe19 171.39
03. archnemesis 112.56 archnemesis 167.97
04. ItWasMeantToBe19 111.90 Road 167.10
05. CorporateClown 111.39 allan-bh 166.92
06. shinra-bansho 106.59 sacrificengineer 166.12
07. Road 104.64 donny2112 165.25
08. MasterSheen 103.04 DaBoss 164.31
09. nhlducks35 102.94 Megadragon15 163.65
10. rayner 101.76 shinra-bansho 163.10
11. DaBoss 101.71 rayner 162.58
12. sacrificengineer 101.33 airmangataosenai 161.08
13. TurkishEmperor 101.27 MasterSheen 160.63
14. andy_lhc 101.14 Baconsammy 159.87
15. Aquamarine 100.72 Goldmund 159.27
16. Goldmund 100.71 Drago 157.43
17. idlewild_ 99.65 Hiro_Kunimi_80 157.33
18. Drago 99.16 Jonsoncao 156.52
19. kswiston 99.06 doicare 155.67
20. strangedopamine 99.04 Elios83 155.05
21. Jonsoncao 98.76 jvm 153.60
22. doicare 97.02 confuziz 153.36
23. Cheebo 96.81 EMT0 152.15
24. Elios83 96.06 Zero-Crescent 146.20
25. CouldBeWorse 94.78 pieatorium 145.69
26. Wickerbasket 94.03 GulAtiCa 143.05
27. confuziz 93.32 BlackJace 142.49
28. Sakura 93.00 perfectchaos007 142.19
29. Foshy 92.91 michaelius 140.89
30. DasMarcos 92.66 Jesse2040 140.41
31. Pachterballs 92.20 Pachter 135.83
32. Megadragon15 92.08 skedar897 133.30
33. Yawnier 91.25 Jamix012 132.40
34. donny2112 90.67 Gianni Merryman 131.61
35. metalslimer 90.58 UberTag 130.45
36. jvm 90.05 Colonel Mustard 128.68
37. Zero-Crescent 89.87 DrWong 128.21
38. Hiro_Kunimi_80 89.51 Strike 123.05
39. pieatorium 89.50 Hammer24 119.91
40. Chico Terry 89.18 Shion 117.77
41. allan-bh 88.76 CorporateClown 111.39
42. airmangataosenai 86.30 rawk 109.06
43. dreamghost 85.35 nhlducks35 102.94
44. BlackJace 84.09 TurkishEmperor 101.27
45. prag16 81.00 andy_lhc 101.14
46. EMT0 80.19 Aquamarine 100.72
47. Cheech 80.11 idlewild_ 99.65
48. GulAtiCa 79.36 kswiston 99.06
49. Pachter 79.28 strangedopamine 99.04
50. Osiris 78.33 JavyOO7 97.13Congratulations, Bruno MB!
Good job, Bruno MB! Well done!Congratulations, Bruno MB!
Thanks for doing the work, donny2112. Also thanks shinra-bansho for firming up the figures.
Congrats Bruno!!! I'm at 8th place overall, not bad.
I definitely underestimated the PS360 by a lot.
I definitely underestimated the PS360 by a lot.
shinra-bansho
Member
Congrats to Bruno MB.
Wow, Pachter did pretty poorly this month.
JVM, hopefully the numbers end up as close as possible to the actuals.
Wow, Pachter did pretty poorly this month.
JVM, hopefully the numbers end up as close as possible to the actuals.
strangedopamine
Member
Into the Top 50 after missing out on January is pretty good going.
[360] 298,000 (out by 4,000)
[3DS] 175,500 (out by 13,500)
[PS3] 205,000 (out by 57,000)
[PSV] 27,500 (out by 10,500)
[WIU] 57,000 (out by 9,000)
[TOT] 763,000 (out by 94,000)
My PS3 prediction let me down a lot. Can't wait for next months round of predictions.
[360] 298,000 (out by 4,000)
[3DS] 175,500 (out by 13,500)
[PS3] 205,000 (out by 57,000)
[PSV] 27,500 (out by 10,500)
[WIU] 57,000 (out by 9,000)
[TOT] 763,000 (out by 94,000)
My PS3 prediction let me down a lot. Can't wait for next months round of predictions.
Point calculation is not based on total units difference, so there are usually some differences between the unit and point rankings. The advantage of point rankings is that it makes different months comparable to each other, since the unit difference (or even # of systems) can change drastically between months.
Dr. Wong:
[360] 330K
[3DS] 250K
[PS3] 245K
[WIU] 100K
[PSV] 35K
Correct order? No, so no 10-point bonus.
Top 10 by units? No, so no bonus.
PSV only comes into play for correct order and Top 10 units bonus, so that leaves 4 systems worth 25 points each.
points = 25 * (actual - abs(actual-prediction))/actual, minimum of 0 (i.e. being off more than the actual gives 0 points)
360 points = 25 * (302-28)/302 = 22.68
3DS points = 25 * (189-61)/189 = 16.93
PS3 points = 25 * (262-17)/262 = 23.38
WIU points = 25 * (66-34)/66 = 12.12
Total = 75.11
Just looking at Pachter, he got the ordering correct, so that's a 10-point bonus he got that you didn't. That's probably a large part of why he made the Top 50 for the month, then.
I don't have much more to add at this point, but the ones I've seen here are a great estimate. At most 3K off in any specific platform.
Ok. Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't really aware of the way points were calculated. Lucky Pachter... ;P
Bruno MB
Member
Thanks, this is my first time winning the NPD prediction game
I didn't expect to win this month since I wasn't to happy with my PS3 and 3DS prediction. Well, I underestimated (once again) Sony's console by 33.000 units. Fortunately I got 3DS numbers right (6.000 units of difference).
I didn't expect to win this month since I wasn't to happy with my PS3 and 3DS prediction. Well, I underestimated (once again) Sony's console by 33.000 units. Fortunately I got 3DS numbers right (6.000 units of difference).
Today's the last day of the March reporting period. Prediction thread should be up tomorrow or maybe tonight. It usually seems a little "late" right after a leap month, so that's probably why it seems like it should've been up by now. Actually started prepping one last week, until I got to the reporting period section and realized. :lol
Cool thanks, thought for a minute i'd missed out on another month.
AdventureRacing
Member
This is why i don't bother as i always do that lol. Gotta say though the lack of numbers kinda makes the whole prediction thing so much less interesting.