What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, March 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: February 3-March 2 (4 weeks, January was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: March 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.
Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]
Good/Bad Formatting
Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Fire Emblem regular 3DS special edition bundle - February 4 - $199
ZombiU Wii U bundle - February 17 - $390
January's Results - thanks to Nirolak, jvm, and a variety of angles
January 2012 NPD thread
February 2012 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, March 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
NPD Coverage: February 3-March 2 (4 weeks, January was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: March 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)
IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.
Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.
[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[360] 300K [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000 [360] 300.000
[360] 300000 [360] - 300000Potential hardware impacting events in February:
Fire Emblem regular 3DS special edition bundle - February 4 - $199
ZombiU Wii U bundle - February 17 - $390
January's Results - thanks to Nirolak, jvm, and a variety of angles
Note: The Wii U number may, may, may have been affected by an inordinately large number of returns by scalpers taking advantage of the extended holiday return period or dissatisfied customers. There were retail reports that the gross number of consoles sold not including returns may have been 2x the January number. Now returns would affect every console in January as people return unwanted Christmas gifts, but the difference here is that Wii U may have had an unusually high number due to people hoping to strike it rich by selling Wii U for a high price, since the Wii sold above retail on the secondary market for years after launch. The thing to note for predictions is the possibility that the January weekly baseline for new Wii U sales may have been higher than the NPD number would indicate. The NPD number is correct, but it just may not give the full picture in terms of predicting for February's results.Here are my personal estimates.Except in the cases where figures are known, rounded to the nearest 5K.
3DS: 145K
PSV: 35K
January 2012 NPD thread
February 2012 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
