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March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

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SwiftDeath

Member
So with the news of 1M units of Infamous Second Son sold through to consumers in 9 days I thought I'd bump this thread as well as make a new prediction

March NPD: ISS -> 450K
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
For reference

Time left to Post and/or Edit NPD Predictions

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Time left to NPD releases approximately (PR starts within an hour or two after this)

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ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
After the good inFAMOUS numbers I think my prediction for PS4 gets a little better... 480k for a 5 week month with increase in supply and inFAMOUS + Metal Gear.
 
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ScottSullivan

Member
How reliable are NPD numbers these days. Are they only doing research into physical sales, Are sellers like Amazon and Walmart still not factored in? Online XBL/PSN digital sales?
 
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SwiftDeath

Member
ScottSullivan said:
How reliable are NPD numbers these days. Are they only doing research into physical sales, Are sellers like Amazon and Walmart still not factored in? Online XBL/PSN digital sales?
Click to expand...

No online sales counted. But all major retailers including walmart and amazon

90%+ of retail accounted for
 
D

donny2112

Member
Phoenician_Viking said:
Next week is Easter holiday i doubt we will have NPD numbers.
Click to expand...

It should release on Thursday next week. Easter is just on Sunday, April 20. Even if NPD wants to take off for Good Friday, they can still release on Thursday. Usually if they delay for a holiday, the holiday is during the week, but they haven't even done that for a few years now.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
SwiftDeath said:
No online sales counted. But all major retailers including walmart and amazon

90%+ of retail accounted for
Click to expand...

90-95% of physical and online retailers directly tracked
Remaining 5-10% of the market is estimated


ScottSullivan said:
How reliable are NPD numbers these days. Are they only doing research into physical sales, Are sellers like Amazon and Walmart still not factored in? Online XBL/PSN digital sales?
Click to expand...

They're building a foundation for reliable digital sales reporting. They did a test run in December 2013 but the accuracy still isn't as good as their physical POS data.

But NPD is planning for the future. They recognize that physical software sales only tell one side of the story, and they want to make their services as comprehensive as possible.
 
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KillerMan91

Member
Five week month and a lot of people are predicting that PS4 sells less per week than in February despite March having major releases and more stock (No Japanes launch eating stock)... Interesting.

[PS4] 440K
[XB1] 400K
[3DS] 170K
[360] 130K
[PS3] 120K
[WIU] 95K
 
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KoopaTheCasual

Junior Member
Aquamarine said:
90-95% of physical and online retailers directly tracked
Remaining 5-10% of the market is estimated




They're building a foundation for reliable digital sales reporting. They did a test run in December 2013 but the accuracy still isn't as good as their physical POS data.

But NPD is planning for the future. They recognize that physical software sales only tells one side of the story, and they want to make their services as comprehensive as possible.
Click to expand...
This is great to hear. Thanks Aqua. I wonder when they'll fully implement digital tracking. It's going to be funny to see "over-all sales up xx%" instantly.
 
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shinra-bansho

Member
SwiftDeath said:
People would do well to remember that March is 5 weeks of tracking whereas last month, February, was only 4 weeks and historically March is a slightly stronger month than February on average

I.E. it's unlikely based on historic trends, increased tracking period and game releases [TF, ISS, DSII, South Park] that most consoles won't be up significantly from February numbers besides Wii U and Vita of course

Actually does anyone think that the MOM increase from January to February might be the sales that would've happened in January moved into February due to the weather and thus February results might not be accurate either? Thus predicting off of them may be less than accurate? Hmm
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I'm working off that latter assumption, sales transitioned into February.

However, from a look back I don't think your first assertion is accurate. Typically March is flat over February, barring unusual circumstances e.g. PSP price cut 2011. This is on a month/month basis - i.e. the weekly average tends to be down, so March ends up being flat and in a like-for-like comp the weaker month.

Predictions:
[XB1] 305K
[PS4] 275K
[3DS] 159K
[360] 93K
[PS3] 81K
[WIU] 77K
 
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SwiftDeath

Member
shinra-bansho said:
However, from a look back I don't think your first assertion is accurate. Typically March is flat over February, barring unusual circumstances e.g. PSP price cut 2011. This is on a month/month basis - i.e. the weekly average tends to be down, so March ends up being flat and in a like-for-like comp the weaker month.
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My first point is more of conjecture really than anything else, I was under the impression that generally sales for March are up 4 - 6% from February but the gut feeling on that I have is likely from a limited scope on it. I never thought it would be anything largely significant like the overall MOM change from October to November or November to December. The increased tracking period and stronger releases are what I think will truly drive higher sales than February, of course Wii U and Vita are anyone's guess at this point
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
donny2112, do you think it is relevant to mention that March 2013 (3 March 2013 - 6 April 2013) included Easter while Easter happens in April in 2014? As you know, I've not always been swayed by the comments NPD makes about Easter having an effect, and I think any effect it might had previously was mostly on the low-end market (e.g. GBA, NDS, maybe PS2, in their respective late-gen eras).

It's debatable whether such a low-end market exists now. The 3DS doesn't have the same cachet as Nintendo's previous handhelds and the PS3 and Xbox 360 won't have the kind of late-gen slow decline that the PS2 enjoyed.

Anyway, just thought I'd toss that out.

I apologize that I can't really be a contributing member of sales-age anymore. I'll be around here and there, but war life has changed.
 
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ultratruman

Banned
Do Microsoft know Sony's numbers before the NPD is released and vice versa? I would think large corporations would have means of accessing and extrapolating the relevant info themselves.
 
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S¡mon

Banned
S¡mon;107160356 said:
Ah, I was waiting for this thread.

[360] 125,000
[3DS] 109,000
[PS3]113,000
[PS4] 408,000
[WIU] 102,000
[XB1] 516,000
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With one day left, I am actually considering to change these numbers. I must resist, yet my gut tells me I'll be totally off when it comes to PS4 and XB1 numbers.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
jvm said:
I apologize that I can't really be a contributing member of sales-age anymore. I'll be around here and there, but war life has changed.
Click to expand...

358069.jpg
Click to expand...

Your continued input will be missed but life is what it is. Got to prioritize the important stuff after all

S¡mon;108043494 said:
With one day left, I am actually considering to change these numbers. I must resist, yet my gut tells me I'll be totally off when it comes to PS4 and XB1 numbers.
Click to expand...

Did you see Aqua's post here?

I think it might be wise to ratchet down your XB1 predictions slightly but that's just me
 
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