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March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

S

SwiftDeath

Member
I have a feeling that the gaf average is going to be quite off this month as some predictions are quite well intriguing to say the least
 
S

Sloane_Ranger

Member
PS4 & XB1 will probably be a lot closer than my guess - but I just have a gut feeling that all those stealthy PS4 shipments that popped up last month (Amazon et al.) will add up nicely.

[360] 142K
[3DS] 188K
[PS3] 138K
[PS4] 420K
[WIU] 79K
[XB1] 390K
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
I expect bumps all around and a Wii U regression to more conventional norms.

[360] 145K
[3DS] 196K
[PS3] 134K
[PS4] 410K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 404K
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Based on anecdotal observations and industry + trade information and trends.

[XB1] 550K
[3DS] 454K
[PS4] 296K
[360] 195K
[PS3] 164K
[WIU] 45K
 
T

TechnicPuppet

Nothing! I said nothing!
SwiftDeath said:
Sigh yes my initial guesses tend to end up being closer, than I tinker like a madman until the numbers no longer resemble the originals at all :(
Click to expand...

I only tried it first time last month. I had ratios pretty good but massively low balled it so did opposite this month.
 
I

IAmRandom31

Banned
Having taken a look at 2012/2013 and such for March I think I got mine.

[PS4] 325K

[X1] 400K

[3DS] 150K

[PS3] 75K

[Wii U] 90K

[Vita] 20K

I expect the X1 to have a ... reasonable bump from Titanfall, but nothing close to what was expected. I really thought that game would sell 4-5 million copies over the different platforms and push the X1 close to 600-700K sales for the next few months. Was WAY off I think.

So I will keep them winning the month but not by a margin that would make any corp happy with their current situation. PS4 sales out anyway, so I will keep with the average but slighly more thanks to Infamous and go close to 350K but not quite there.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Incognito said:
Based on anecdotal observations and industry + trade information and trends.

[XB1] 550K
[3DS] 454K
[PS4] 296K
[360] 195K
[PS3] 164K
[WIU] 45K
Click to expand...

That would be amazingly impressive for the 3DS imo

TechnicPuppet said:
I only tried it first time last month. I had ratios pretty good but massively low balled it so did opposite this month.
Click to expand...

Yeah we all lowballed it last month because of how crazy January was

I expect the gaf average to be quite off ball this month too but we'll see :\

Predicting things is hard
 
I

Into

Member
Into said:
[PS4] 390k
[XB1] 435k
[360] 71k
[3DS] 180k
[Vita] 29k
[PS3] 60k
[WiiU] 110k
Click to expand...


Sticking with my numbers, maybe XB1 and PS4 are slightly too high, but increased availability for PS4 and TF for XB1 i think will push both.

I also predict with 99% certainty that Titanfall has sold 1 million and MS will lump that PR with this NPD, which i think they will/should win. It makes the most sense
 
K

Kriken

Member
[360] 45K
[PS3] 60K
[XB1] 380K
[PS4] 370K
[WIU] 65K
[3DS] 140K

PS4 and XB1 has Infamous and Titanfall respectively and Wii U regresses
 
F

FTF

Member
First time predicting so here goes nothing:

[PS4] 355K
[XB1] 340K
[3DS] 135K
[360] 90K
[PS3] 85K
[WIU] 65K
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Into said:
I also predict with 99% certainty that Titanfall has sold 1 million and MS will lump that PR with this NPD, which i think they will/should win. It makes the most sense
Click to expand...

While I think you are correct that MS will use TF numbers during the PR blitzing, I suspect TF is over 1 million and it will be like 1.5 - 1.7M sold personally
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
SwiftDeath said:
While I think you are correct that MS will use TF numbers during the PR blitzing, I suspect TF is over 1 million and it will be like 1.5 - 1.7M sold personally
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That means Titanfall will have an attach rate higher than 33%.
(No way Xbone is more than 4.5M)
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Chobel said:
That means Titanfall will have an attach rate higher than 33%.
(No way Xbone is more than 4.5M)
Click to expand...

If it's MS PR it would include 360 at least [although that seems a drop in the bucket] but I think EA will release something and MS can piggyback on that

I'm thinking more total TF sales but I guess maybe MS doesn't want to say that

A 33% attach rate is crazy, probably 20 - 25% at best so maybe 1.2M XB1?

I honestly have a blindspot when it comes to accurately gauging how TF will do
 
T

TechnicPuppet

Nothing! I said nothing!
SwiftDeath said:
If it's MS PR it would include 360 at least [although that seems a drop in the bucket] but I think EA will release something and MS can piggyback on that

I'm thinking more total TF sales but I guess maybe MS doesn't want to say that

A 33% attach rate is crazy, probably 20 - 25% at best so maybe 1.2M XB1?

I honestly have a blindspot when it comes to accurately gauging how TF will do
Click to expand...

25% in UK week 1 so US may be similar. Must be higher than that now right enough if just about every XB1 has TF included.
 
A

Accident

Member
A close to 33% attach rate is not unheard of for games released near the launch of a new console. e.g. Gears of War, Halo 3
 
S

S¡mon

Banned
S¡mon;107160356 said:
Ah, I was waiting for this thread.

[360] 125,000
[3DS] 109,000
[PS3]113,000
[PS4] 408,000
[WIU] 102,000
[XB1] 516,000
Click to expand...
Maybe I went a little overboard with my XB1 and WIU numbers. Still... #believe.
 
T

The Llama

Member
SwiftDeath said:
If it's MS PR it would include 360 at least [although that seems a drop in the bucket] but I think EA will release something and MS can piggyback on that

I'm thinking more total TF sales but I guess maybe MS doesn't want to say that

A 33% attach rate is crazy, probably 20 - 25% at best so maybe 1.2M XB1?

I honestly have a blindspot when it comes to accurately gauging how TF will do
Click to expand...

Heh, I feel the same. Its so hard to really judge, which is a bit unfortunate for our predictions because MS really bet everything on it being a massive success. Can't wait for these NPD's.
 
D

Deku Tree

Member
The Llama said:
Heh, I feel the same. Its so hard to really judge, which is a bit unfortunate for our predictions because MS really bet everything on it being a massive success. Can't wait for these NPD's.
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I don't know what is going on with TF. But given the lack of a PR statement from EA or MS, and the widespread discounting of the X1 Titanfall Bundle. I am assuming that TF was not a massive success up to their expectations. Although I am sure that whatever the numbers are, their PR departments will try to claim some sort of a wonderful success somehow.
 
A

Apophis2036

Banned
S¡mon;108227520 said:
Maybe I went a little overboard with my XB1 and WIU numbers. Still... #believe.
Click to expand...

I think WiiU will be a little higher than the usual 50k average because last month only had 9 days of the DKC Tropical Freeze bump but I still think it will be way, way below 100k (I went with 65k). I hope I'm wrong because at this point a new 100k per month baseline would be considered a small victory for the failing console.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
The Llama said:
Heh, I feel the same. Its so hard to really judge, which is a bit unfortunate for our predictions because MS really bet everything on it being a massive success. Can't wait for these NPD's.
Click to expand...

Yep March NPD should be one to remember. I expect TF to have done incredibly well for what it is [a new IP on 3 platforms] but I'm curious on XB1 numbers this month with the bundles and price cuts

silver.tongue said:
No countdown clock yet?
Click to expand...

Here

SwiftDeath said:
Time left to NPD releases approximately (PR starts within an hour or two after this)

t1397764800z1.png
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Apophis2036 said:
I think WiiU will be a little higher than the usual 50k average because last month only had 9 days of the DKC Tropical Freeze bump but I still think it will be way, way below 100k (I went with 65k). I hope I'm wrong because at this point a new 100k per month baseline would be considering a small victory for the failing console.
Click to expand...

Yeah Wii U is hard to predict. I have it at 74K I think just because I think it'll be up but not by too much
 
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