Support NeoGAF

[cw_sasuke]

The lead in Japan and Europe will be too great for Halo 3 alone to overcome.

Fixed

 

[jimbo]

Non-gamers aside, they're not exactly aiming for 360 nonwaggling (hard)core players, that's for sure (or maybe they did but failed horribly in the process). If Wii's are being bought by moms or dormant Nintendo-fans doesn't really matter, since I heavily doubt that anyone (with his/her priorities set fairly straight) would have a problem choosing between the two of them.

Well Nintendo fans also have created this gaming world of non-gamers and hardcore gamers only.

You seem to forget, that Sony's already done with both PS and PS2 what Nintendo's trying to do now.

The 100+ million gamers that bought PS consoles in the past are NOT hardcore gamers. Most of them ARE casual gamers or avid gamers.

 

[Odysseus]

If we ignore the rest of the world, and just focus solely on the US (despite the thread title), the 360 is probably safe for about another 14 months or so.

Hence these charts (thanks go to Bildi):

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r89/Bildi777/NPD Graphs/200704NPD1.jpg

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r89/Bildi777/NPD Graphs/200704NPD3.jpg

Once we leave the US and hit worldwide sales, Jimbo's argument fall apart completely.

if nintendo has the supply (big if), i think wii could sell 3 million in november and december combined, which would considerably shrink the gap, since i think 360 does no more than last year's numbers if they do not drop the price.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Are we talking monthly sales numbers? Or LTD numbers, because that's what I thought you were talking about.

One in effect leads to the other.

If we were to make a bet on LTD, I would bet you that the Wii will usurp the 360's marketshare by April '08. The only reason i'm hesitant is that that's a while off. If you're down though, i'm all for it.

 

[StevieP]

Well Nintendo fans also have created this gaming world of non-gamers

 

[Tf53]

Are we talking monthly sales numbers? Or LTD numbers, because that's what I thought you were talking about.

At that point it might not make a difference either way.

edit: Okay, you meant only in NA.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

if nintendo has the supply (big if), i think wii could sell 3 million in november and december combined, which would considerably shrink the gap, since i think 360 does no more than last year's numbers if they do not drop the price.

That's the Big If. I'm not very confident in Nintendo's ability to meet demand any time this year.

 

[jimbo]

"There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US."

You didn't say "the majority of Wii titles." You said Wii titles in general. Glad you backpedaled to claer it up.

Wii Sports is one of the major hardware drivers of Wii sales, and is certainly more "appealing to the general public" (your words) than Gears of War, which is 360's highest selling title.

Dude I also said 360 titles, as in plural. You're trying to turn it into something I did not say. And I am not backpedaling.

Let me be more clear: The 360's LINE-UP will prove more popular than the WII's line-up in the US.

And Wii Sports is a pack-in. You can't judge if its popularity compared to games like GOW in the US, because people have NO CHOICE in the manner. GOW doesn't come with a 360 over here.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I think Wii will take longer than April 08 to pass 360 (in the US), if it does. It only started gaining units on 360 this last month.

 

[jimbo]

One in effect leads to the other.

If we were to make a bet on LTD, I would bet you that the Wii will usurp the 360's marketshare by April '08. The only reason i'm hesitant is that that's a while off. If you're down though, i'm all for it.

I'll take that bet. I have never been good at predicting monthly numbers, because anything can happen short term. Long term, it's pretty clear, so yeah.

 

[RiskyChris]

Everyone knows people bought PS2's just for movies ;p



Please don't tell me you are actually buying into the PR crap that the WII is NOT catering to gamers. Or that Nitendo is NOT trying to get the 100+ million of current gamers out there.

Yeah they are trying to expand the market.....but it doesn't take a genius to figure out they want the core gamer as much as Sony and MS. They will never make it by trying to sell ONLY to non-gamers and alpha moms.

So yeah, of course that's what it means. And that's exactly what's going on.

Hey Jimbo, here's a bit of a hint. There aren't 100+ million gamers out there.

If you took all sales of GTA and Halo and added them together, assuming no person owned more than one of the games, then you wouldn't hit 100 million.

You know where that PS2 fanbase comes from? CASUALS! 360's software lineup will do wonders to attract the X million gamers (however big that is, 10-20 million in America?), but it has no chance against Wii for that critical PS2 casual base.

Edit: I guess above you've admitted they're casual gamers partly. So why is the 360 lineup more suited to attract these such gamers?

 

[StevieP]

GOW doesn't come with a 360 over here.

And if it did, it wouldn't be anywhere NEAR as popular and viral as Wii Sports is and will continue to be. You just don't get it. Many people consider Wii Sports a $250 game with free hardware, as strange as that may sound to your microcosmic view of the videogame market.

 

[Odysseus]

That's the Big If. I'm not very confident in Nintendo's ability to meet demand any time this year.

i'm not either, and that's mostly not their fault. they had no idea how hot the thing would start, so it's hard to plan production capacity for the early success. and although they're taking measures to increase capacity, if the system keeps selling this well they still may not have the ability to make enough to keep some stored away for the holiday bonanza.

 

[Tf53]

Dude I also said 360 titles, as in plural. You're trying to turn it into something I did not say. And I am not backpedaling.

Let me be more clear: The 360's LINE-UP will prove more popular than the WII's line-up in the US.

And Wii Sports is a pack-in. You can't judge if its popularity compared to games like GOW in the US, because people have NO CHOICE in the manner. GOW doesn't come with a 360 over here.

Well, you sort of can, because it is THE title that the majority of non- or lapsed gamers buy a Wii for. You try it, you buy it.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Dude I also said 360 titles, as in plural. You're trying to turn it into something I did not say. And I am not backpedaling.

Let me be more clear: The 360's LINE-UP will prove more popular than the WII's line-up in the US.

And Wii Sports is a pack-in. You can't judge if its popularity compared to games like GOW in the US, because people have NO CHOICE in the manner. GOW doesn't come with a 360 over here.

1. I know you said 360 titles in plural. So did I, in my response.
2. There is absolutely no reason to think 360's lineup will prove more popular than Wiis. Wii is already outselling 360 and Wii doesn't even have a lineup.
3. You said "appeal to the general public," NOT SALES, so Wii Sports can be thrown out there.
4. Wii Sports is a great driver of Wii word of mouth, and certainly has a role in Wii's sales.

360 is loaded to the gills with T and M rated content, this does not equate to mass appeal.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I'll take that bet. I have never been good at predicting monthly numbers, because anything can happen short term. Long term, it's pretty clear, so yeah.

Ok. So that's the bet.

DeaconKnowledge bets jimbo that the Wii will have passed the 360's LTD in America by April 2008. Somebody wanna record this?

 

[SovanJedi]

Dude I also said 360 titles, as in plural. You're trying to turn it into something I did not say. And I am not backpedaling.

Let me be more clear: The 360's LINE-UP will prove more popular than the WII's line-up in the US.

And Wii Sports is a pack-in. You can't judge if its popularity compared to games like GOW in the US, because people have NO CHOICE in the manner. GOW doesn't come with a 360 over here.

In the mean time I won't continue to argue against a flawed theory.

Hrm.

 

[jimbo]

And if it did, it wouldn't be anywhere NEAR as popular and viral as Wii Sports is and will continue to be. You just don't get it. Many people consider Wii Sports a $250 game with free hardware, as strange as that may sound to your microcosmic view of the videogame market.

Wow.

 

[heliosRAzi]

I think of it like this:

One market (the hardcore) is a subset of another (everyone). The 360 is going after that subset and caters to them. The Wii is catering to everyone.

Which has a better potential for the most sales: the smaller market or the bigger market?

 

[RiskyChris]

Wow.

Well I guess your lack of perspective on the mass market explains why you think the 360's lineup will dominate Wii's in the US.

 

[StevieP]

Wow.

You think I'm joking, don't you?
I'm absolutely, honestly, dead serious.

Get out of the microcosm that most hardcore elitists confime themselves to, and you'll actually see this effect take place. Hell, a lot of people on this forum have described that effect. Even if you look at the attach rate of the title in Japan (thanks Thraktor) you can see that the damn game is selling a lot of systems. If you can't fathom that Wii Sports has more appeal to the mainstream public than the entirety of the 360 library, you're in for one hell of a holiday season :lol

Well I guess your lack of perspective on the mass market explains why you think the 360's lineup will dominate Wii's in the US.

Yep, you can sum it up nicely like that as well :lol

Question: by your reckoning, which console had the best US lineup in January, February, March and April?

Even better! This threads gonna be fun

 

[Jokeropia]

There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US.

Question: by your reckoning, which console had the best US lineup in January, February, March and April?

 

[nextgeneration]

I think of it like this:

One market (the hardcore) is a subset of another (everyone). The 360 is going after that subset and caters to them. The Wii is catering to everyone.

Which has a better potential for the most sales: the smaller market or the bigger market?

Exactly, which is why Wii will win this generation.

 

[Slurpy]

So when are the next Media Create #s?

 

[nextgeneration]

So when are the next Media Create #s?

Hardware numbers on Thursday, at approximately 6:30 PM PST.

 

[jimbo]

Hey Jimbo, here's a bit of a hint. There aren't 100+ million gamers out there.

If you took all sales of GTA and Halo and added them together, assuming no person owned more than one of the games, then you wouldn't hit 100 million.
You know where that PS2 fanbase comes from? CASUALS! 360's software lineup will do wonders to attract the X million gamers (however big that is, 10-20 million in America?), but it has no chance against Wii for that critical PS2 casual base.

Edit: I guess above you've admitted they're casual gamers partly. So why is the 360 lineup more suited to attract these such gamers?

Wow, that's great logic. So now the ENTIRE gaming market are made up of Halo and GTA owners?

And here's a wake-up call: CASUAL gamers bought PS and PS2's NOT WII's!

It has been proven that the casuals LIKE the type of games that appeared on the PS and PS2. It was those type of games that attracted them. This is a fact.

The Wii does NOT try to replicate the PS and PS2.

I'm going to go with the logic that if the Playstation experience is what attracted casual gamers in the first place, and then the Playsation 2 experience continued to retain that userbase with the same type of games.....then the console that offers those same type of games again.....will continue to attract them. It's THAT simple.

The Wii is the furthest of the three from what the PS and PS2 was.

 

[RiskyChris]

Wow, that's great logic. So now the ENTIRE gaming market are made up of Halo and GTA owners?

And here's a wake-up call: CASUAL gamers bought PS and PS2's NOT WII's!

It has been proven that the casuals LIKE the type of games that appeared on the PS and PS2. It was those type of games that attracted them. This is a fact.

The Wii does NOT try to replicate the PS and PS2.

I'm going to go with the logic that if the Playstation experience is what attracted casual gamers in the first place, and then the Playsation 2 experience continued to retain that userbase with the same type of games.....then the console that offers those same type of games again.....will continue to attract them. It's THAT simple.

The Wii is the furthest of the three from what the PS and PS2 was.

What part of the 360 library mirrors the PS 1/2 library?

Casuals didn't flock to PLAYSTATION largely until the price was in their range. Wii's is already there.

 

[jimbo]

I think of it like this:

One market (the hardcore) is a subset of another (everyone). The 360 is going after that subset and caters to them. The Wii is catering to everyone.
Which has a better potential for the most sales: the smaller market or the bigger market?

Really?

So if I am a sim-racing game fan, is the Wii catering to me?
If I like HD gaming, does the Wii cater to me?
If I am big on games like MGS does the Wii cater to me?
If I like sandbox games like GTA4 does the Wii cater to me?
Etc, etc etc.

I've made this argument before....the Wii has the BIGGEST GAPS in genres of all consoles.

 

[jimbo]

What part of the 360 library mirrors the PS 1/2 library?

Casuals didn't flock to PLAYSTATION largely until the price was in their range. Wii's is already there.

How about ALL of it?

You're right, the Wii's already there and people are still buying 200k PS2's a month.

Take a hint!

 

[Evlar]

Really?

So if I am a sim-racing game fan, is the Wii catering to me?
If I like HD gaming, does the Wii cater to me?
If I am big on games like MGS does the Wii cater to me?
If I like sandbox games like GTA4 does the Wii cater to me?
Etc, etc etc.

I've made this argument before....the Wii has the BIGGEST GAPS in genres of all consoles.

I see three genres there and a resolution. Is that supposed to be definitive?

 

[jimbo]

I see three genres there and a resolution. Is that supposed to be definitive?

Because I stopped?

 

[nextgeneration]

Really?

So if I am a sim-racing game fan, is the Wii catering to me?
If I like HD gaming, does the Wii cater to me?
If I am big on games like MGS does the Wii cater to me?
If I like sandbox games like GTA4 does the Wii cater to me?
Etc, etc etc.

I've made this argument before....the Wii has the BIGGEST GAPS in genres of all consoles.

Whether or not Wii caters towards everyone, I think most people would agree that Wii will attract a larger audience to their system than PS3 or 360 will ever hope to achieve. I think Wii is the only system that will truly expand this industry. 360 and PS3 will not do that.

 

[Tf53]

Wow, that's great logic. So now the ENTIRE gaming market are made up of Halo and GTA owners?

And here's a wake-up call: CASUAL gamers bought PS and PS2's NOT WII's!

It has been proven that the casuals LIKE the type of games that appeared on the PS and PS2. It was those type of games that attracted them. This is a fact.

The Wii does NOT try to replicate the PS and PS2.

I'm going to go with the logic that if the Playstation experience is what attracted casual gamers in the first place, and then the Playsation 2 experience continued to retain that userbase with the same type of games.....then the console that offers those same type of games again.....will continue to attract them. It's THAT simple.

The Wii is the furthest of the three from what the PS and PS2 was.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Because I stopped?

I wish you'd stop like you promised a couple of pages ago.

 

[heliosRAzi]

Really?

So if I am a sim-racing game fan, is the Wii catering to me?
If I like HD gaming, does the Wii cater to me?
If I am big on games like MGS does the Wii cater to me?
If I like sandbox games like GTA4 does the Wii cater to me?
Etc, etc etc.

I've made this argument before....the Wii has the BIGGEST GAPS in genres of all consoles.

Uh, why couldn't it get those games... well, besides HD gaming (but only the hardcore care for that and they don't make up a substantial part of the market). The Wii can get a sim-racing game. IT can get a big game like MGS (Zelda, No More Heroes, Manhunt 2, MP3), it already has a sandbox game (The Godfather:BHE, the best edition.)

It might have the biggest gaps in genres out of all the consoles, but it's not like it can't get them.

Besides, you seem to be worrying about the merit; I'm talking about sales potential. The Wii has a better potential to sell more systems than the 360.

 

[schuelma]

How about ALL of it?

You're right, the Wii's already there and people are still buying 200k PS2's a month.

Take a hint!

So jimbo....what market is PS3 and 360 appealing to...based on sales of course

 

[Evlar]

Because I stopped?

SO you admit your post does nothing to prove your point?

 

[jimbo]

Uh, why couldn't it get those games... well, besides HD gaming (but only the hardcore care for that and they don't make up a substantial part of the market). The Wii can get a sim-racing game. IT can get a big game like MGS (Zelda, No More Heroes, Manhunt 2, MP3), it already has a sandbox game (The Godfather:BHE, the best edition.)
It might have the biggest gaps in genres out of all the consoles, but it's not like it can't get them.

Besides, you seem to be worrying about the merit; I'm talking about sales potential. The Wii has a better potential to sell more systems than the 360.

Sure it can, but the 360 already has them. And the majority of them are coming out before the end of the year.

 

[jimbo]

So jimbo....what market is PS3 and 360 appealing to...based on sales of course

To the people who can afford them? Just a thought. I don't know.

 

[schuelma]

Sure it can, but the 360 already has them. And the majority of them are coming out before the end of the year.

And yet the 360 is getting rolled 3:1 (or so) worldwide by the Wii right now..what does that tell you? From a sales perspective, isn't it pretty logical that right now Wii has the most mass market appeal?

 

[RiskyChris]

Really?

So if I am a sim-racing game fan, is the Wii catering to me?
If I like HD gaming, does the Wii cater to me?
If I am big on games like MGS does the Wii cater to me?
If I like sandbox games like GTA4 does the Wii cater to me?
Etc, etc etc.

I've made this argument before....the Wii has the BIGGEST GAPS in genres of all consoles.

Well I think by virtue of being market leader, these gaps will be filled. Fast.

Why can't you accept that games like MGS already exist on Wii?

Edit: Since when have racing sims, games like MGS, and sandbox games made a console sell 100 M?

 

[felipeko]

Sure it can, but the 360 already has them.

And see how that's helping x360 over the Wii.

 

[jimbo]

Well I think by virtue of being market leader, these gaps will be filled. Fast.

Why can't you accept that games like MGS already exist on Wii?

Edit: Since when have racing sims, games like MGS, and sandbox games made a console sell 100 M?

What the hell do you think sold all those PS and PS2's? Sponge Bob?

 

[jimbo]

And yet the 360 is getting rolled 3:1 (or so) worldwide by the Wii right now..what does that tell you? From a sales perspective, isn't it pretty logical that right now Wii has the most mass market appeal?

Absolutely. I agree with you.

Why it does, and why it will or it won't in the future is why I disagree with some of you.

 

[Tf53]

What the hell do you think sold all those PS and PS2's? Sponge Bob?

A HUGE library of games combined with a cheap price.

 

[Evlar]

This line of argument only makes sense if you assume nothing new will be announced for Wii... which is moronic.

 

[schuelma]

Absolutely. I agree with you.

Why it does, and why it will or it won't in the future is why I disagree with some of you.

Ok, so why won't it in the future? By your own statements 360 already has a shitload of games already out. So shouldn't it already be selling very well?

 

[heliosRAzi]

Sure it can, but the 360 already has them. And the majority of them are coming out before the end of the year.

You're just reinforcing my point. The 360 is catering to the hardcore while the Wii is catering to everyone.

 

[RiskyChris]

[/B]

What the hell do you think sold all those PS and PS2's? Sponge Bob?

An extremely diverse library. DDR, GH, JRPGS (oh so many), GTA, shit licensed trash, quirky experimental games, eyetoy, singstar, etc.

To try to say the 360's library attracts just as well as the PS2 one is a grave insult to the PS2's library.

 

[ethelred]

Jimbo is a fascinating fellow. One minute he's telling us it's impossible to foresee the Wii overtaking the 360 in worldwide hardware sales, despite the trendlines indicating that this will happen in a span of months, because he just quite simply will not get sucked into a hypothetical. The next minute he's predicting that Wii games will never ever ever be more popular than the most popular 360 game.