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Media Create Sales 5/28 - 6/3
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
Grampa Simpson
Banned
N64 was not nearly as dire. It did pretty well in the US. Also, I think that Nintendo is different enough from Sony as that they wouldn't put themselves in a position where Profit is a gamble.Sharp said:
Except with the Virtual Boy.
Just my opinion, but you guys are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think the PS3 is going to completely fail. Don't get me wrong, its going to be a massive massive disappointment, but I think it will still find an audience in the end.
schuelma said:
It would still have a huge install base advantage.
schuelma said:
Disappointment in what sense? My life will not be any better is Stringer axes the PS3 tomorrow.
As for finding its market, the evidence points out that the market for secondary consoles is tiny. PS3 clearly does not have a future as the only console for any substatial group in any market.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Speevy said:
Will the revenue they generate in the next 9 years balance the costs of continued support for the next 9 years. Anywhere even close? Those are the questions. If the answers are not yes, then they've got a big problem.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
The Dreamcast certainly has an audience. As does the Jaguar and the 3DO.schuelma said:
bmf said:
Wow, I can't believe you guys are making me defend the PS3 here, but they do have the games (future lineup I mean) and the technology edge to carve out an audience. Some people are graphics whores and when the PS3 is at a somewhat reasonable price those people will jump on board and make a base. Not a huge one, but its not going to just die next year.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Remember when I took that poll about whether Wiitard or that gcnfan2k6 guy should be banned?
We voted right, dudes.
We voted right, dudes.
Ok, in console space normal law of economics don't apply, consoles never get cancelled even if they lose billions and billions and billions. It makes total sense to sell PS3 at $250 loss to a Japanese consumer who is not interested in games or Blu-Ray movies and will use it for BC. It makes sense to sell the PS3 at $150 to a US 360 owner who will buy a couple of game a year for it. Sure.
Sony is doing exactly the right thing and should just stay the course and keep losing billions of real money because there are some guys on GAF who think it might find a market three years down the road.
Sony is doing exactly the right thing and should just stay the course and keep losing billions of real money because there are some guys on GAF who think it might find a market three years down the road.
Eteric Rice
Member
PS3 will live. It won't be a huge success, but it won't be pulled.
Flakster99
Member
brain_stew said:
A side note that usually gets overlooked when mentioning Sega dumping the Genesis over new hardware, in turn losing market share and ultimately the console sales race: the Mega Drive/ Genesis was on the market a whole 2 years before the SNES launched in JP, and the US - 1 1/2 years in EU.
They obviously felt it was time to branch out, try out new tech as the Genesis was overly dated by the mid 90's in relation to Sega's ambitions with software and hardware.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
The PS3 is the Saturn. So you better hope they keep Bernie Stolar the **** away.
schuelma said:
Read my previous posts. I'm not even advocating for them to actually, officially drop it.
Here is what I think will be happening in a year:
1) The hardware will stop being subsidized (which in effect means almost complete abandonment of US and Japan);
2) Dramatic reduction of fist party effort on PS3 and shift to PS@ and PSP.
3) Repeated declarations by all Sony managment brass that they are 100% commited to PS3.
This is what I called pulling the plug. It makes little sense for them to actually declare anything officially. So I do not expect an official announcement.
Flakster99
Member
schuelma said:
Will Sony's hardware and the economics associated allow them to drop the price without losing their shirt in the process is the real question.
With the 360 and the Wii breathing down their neck, we're going to find out very soon. What is the better business model, right now - will Sony gamble in small chunks with small, consistent price cuts($20-$50), with software (decent movie, older game) pack ins? Or will they go for the gusto and massively drop the price ($100-$200), pack in a quality game, say Lair, or Ratchet and Spiderman 3?
Who knows. I anticipate somewhere in between.
RiskyChris
Banned
Wiitard said:
Uh, Dreamcast?
If Sony doesn't think it has the money to endure this generation, and also finds it too risky (WOOO!) to try to get a foothold on generation 8, there's probably cause for the system to go under. Is this going to happen? Not likely.
Flakster99
Member
Wiitard said:
Oops. My post was meant for the US. Right now I'm at a loss for words, I'm not sure what can help the PS3 in Japan, especially with how Sony positioned itself over there with release dates, quality of software, console bulk, HD and especially console/software price. /shrug
schuelma said:
I suspect that the reason why we will not see price rises (yes, rises) in the US in the forseable future is because right now they are selling to little hardware for it to really hurt. Will be interesting to see what will happen in Japan when the stocks run out.
But here is what I believe: Sony is already done sinking money into the PS3. The money spent on the development and the pile of unsold PS3 they have (I think by now it should be bigger then 5.5-3.3 million) are sunk cost.
But every PS3 manufactured from this point on is going to be sold at cost or at fairly trivial loss.
Flakster99 said:
My point is that in 3 month the Japanese retailers will run out of PS3 stock. And there is no market in Japan for PS3 sold at their real cost (probably $750 now). Why the **** should you give every consumer a present?
SouthernDragon
Member
That means sales will slow to a crawl, retailers will stop ordering product, and Sony will have to stop manufacturing PS3s and hold on to the factories.
Man, that's gonna -suck.-
Man, that's gonna -suck.-
Flakster99
Member
To quantify myself more, I am very interested in a PS3. For it's future JP software, for when I choose to purchase an HD TV, right now my SD TV fulfill my needs nicely, and it's backward compatibility.
And when the time comes when I see the PS3 is of value, for me, my gaming interests may be elsewhere - I may purchase a 360 instead for personal/whatever reasons, or I may continue with my PC, Wii and DS as my gaming outlets. The longer they flounder, especially with competent competition, I may bypass them outright.
It sure is fun to speculate.
And when the time comes when I see the PS3 is of value, for me, my gaming interests may be elsewhere - I may purchase a 360 instead for personal/whatever reasons, or I may continue with my PC, Wii and DS as my gaming outlets. The longer they flounder, especially with competent competition, I may bypass them outright.
It sure is fun to speculate.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Even if that is the case, they still have to cover marketing and support (end user and developer). Developer and end user support is probably a less than $20,000,000 a year, but marketing to the mainstream still means TV ads, and those cost a bunch. It's kind of a death spiral. At this point next year, I think that the best they can hope for is to keep their company in the black, and not get their pants sued off by devs and pubs who were promised the world.Wiitard said:
RiskyChris said:
IT looks that even 5 years from now PS2 and PSP will have more of a presence then PS3. If Sony sticks to supporting those platforms it may be in a decent position to launch a PSP2 some 2-3 years down the line.
bmf said:
That's exactly what I expect them to do except I think they will finish most of the games which are in advanced stages now and will keep a couple of projects going for the sake of appearances. It makes sense to maintain the platform alive enought to recieve ports of 360's most succesful games. But they are already done spending money on a big scale. Probably scaling those TV ads should be a smart idea.
Flakster99
Member
Wiitard said:
Just look how the N64 fared in Japan in relation to under selling, having the wrong vision at the wrong time for it's home (JP) market. Money talks, bullshit walks. It happened to Sega, to Nintendo, and it's happening to Sony.
The PS3 may very well pull a N64 in the sense of selling a shit load of 1st/2nd party software, and just enough hardware to support themselves and their chosen software parties. I could go for this.
Flakster99 said:
Well, but that is definitely NOT the case. This is NOT what is happening. Right now people are apparently interested in PS3 in Japan as a piece of furniture. The attach rate is simply abysmal. The dearly bribed customers are refusing to buy games of Blu-Ray movies. In US the situation is better, but still not nearly good enough.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
I'd describe that as a best case scenario at this point. The Otaku have their PS3s, but it will not hit mainstream.Flakster99 said:
The other question, is for the Japanese developers that feel they must finish their HD Super-Cinematic games. If the Wii is beating the PS3 5:1 worldwide, and the 360 is beating it 2.5:1 a year from now, will they quick and dirty port to 360, or will they regroup and down-convert assets to match the Wii's memory profile? I guess it will be on a case-by-case basis. Bleh.
I still want Final Fantasy XIII.
Mr. Pointy
Member
I think Sony should just give the PS2 a second wind and crank up their PSP 1st/2nd party support. Maybe they should do like Nintendo and contract 3rd parties for individual games. They've done it before, but this time they should try it on a larger scale.
Flakster99 said:
I Dunno, Nintendo's First Party in the N64-era produced some of the most highly rated games ever known. Sales of those first-party games were also very good (enough to keep Nintendo afloat atleast).
I really don't think that Sony's first party can compare to N64-era Nintendo (we are talking about Super Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time here).
So, i don't think sony has strong enough development studios to support the PS3 on its own.
I mean we are witnessing a jump from PS2 sales to worse-than Gamecube sales in a single generation, atleast Nintendo ramped down over two generations.
I look this way..
There are 3 ways to make money from hardware production:
1- being the leader console, 3rd parties will bring you the money;
2- be sold at profit;
3- have a huge seller catalog of 1st party games.
Sony doesn't look to have any. The only one that they can hope to have is 2. And seems unlikely that they will sell much if they don't cut the price.
So why would they keep supporting it?
There are 3 ways to make money from hardware production:
1- being the leader console, 3rd parties will bring you the money;
2- be sold at profit;
3- have a huge seller catalog of 1st party games.
Sony doesn't look to have any. The only one that they can hope to have is 2. And seems unlikely that they will sell much if they don't cut the price.
So why would they keep supporting it?
ghostlyjoe
Member
The conventional wisdom is that the PS3 will sell enough software in the west to maintain its viability. Why do you guys think that won't be the case? Clearly, there is compelling software promised for the machine -- third parties have not abandoned it -- and its fans insist it will hang around long enough to become reasonably priced. Not to mention, Sony HAS to stick with it to have any hope of recovering its losses and staying ahead of the HD-disc market.
If the situation was as dire as you are painting, wouldn't we be seeing canceled projects? Retailers declining new stock?
I just can't fathom Sony pulling PS3 support this quickly, and other than sales figures, we haven't seen any evidence that the industry as a whole has lost faith.
If the situation was as dire as you are painting, wouldn't we be seeing canceled projects? Retailers declining new stock?
I just can't fathom Sony pulling PS3 support this quickly, and other than sales figures, we haven't seen any evidence that the industry as a whole has lost faith.
So you guys who think Sony will be just marching on no matter what, you actually believe in thins:
Sony releases game X and loses 20 million in costs and marketing. Sequel for X is approved.
Sony releases game Y and loses 20 million in costs and marketing. Sequel for Y is approved.
Sony releases game Z and loses 20 million in costs and marketing. Sequel for Z is approved.
Sony releases game X and loses 20 million in costs and marketing. Sequel for X is approved.
Sony releases game Y and loses 20 million in costs and marketing. Sequel for Y is approved.
Sony releases game Z and loses 20 million in costs and marketing. Sequel for Z is approved.
ghostlyjoe said:
There are 2.2 Million PS3's out there in the channel right now, i don't think the channel will accept anymore. So yes, we should see retailers declining stock soon (that's if Sony is still producing PS3's).
Third Parties are wavering right now, you can be sure that if sales don't pick up, most games will go Multi-platform or future games will go to the Wii, we have already seen evidence of this.
Loyalty has it's limits.
ghostlyjoe
Member
Wiitard said:
Are those official figures?
Frankly, not enough high-profile games have been released at this point to the software situation is a black hole. And keep in mind that smaller userbases tend to be more rabid userbases. The N64 moved big games. The GC moved big games. The XBox moved big games. I would think games like FFXIII and GOW3 will have an impressive attach rate and produce a profit even on the relatively anemic userbase the PS3 seems to be building.
Flakster99
Member
Xavien said:
Very true. The jump to 3D, on top of large development times lead to those incredible numbers.
For the PS3, it will have a mix of new software and sequels up their sleeve. So many variables involved though, even if they deliver that jump in quality software, the market may have moved on, like my previous self-example. I want to say all Sony has to do is concentrate on themselves, deliver a focused, quality product to the consumer, but it is no longer realistic Japan, and possibly the US.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Not enough compelling software. Will they be able to average 15 software sales per machine sold?ghostlyjoe said:
Is there enough? Will we see the announcements of new software through the rest of the year?ghostlyjoe said:
Yetghostlyjoe said:
Their most vocal fans.ghostlyjoe said:
They're now selling a $500 Blu-Ray player. How long until they're selling a $400 one? $300? $200? They're already selling these at a profit, albeit a small one. The manufacturing costs just go down.ghostlyjoe said:
More silent drops at first. Later some that just fail to materialize at retail. Companies tend to be embarrassed when they bet on the wrong horse.ghostlyjoe said:
What's to say they haven't been? It's not the type of thing you advertise.ghostlyjoe said:
Faith has little to do with it this far in. The numbers are god.ghostlyjoe said:
ghostlyjoe said:
I don't see anybody making any new bets on PS3. Nobody is doing it. And I don't think Sony HQ is doing it either.
The question is: do you see Sony deciding to sink anther billion in. And then another billion? There is a level of survival to be had with non-subsidized hardware (after the current pile runs out maybe early next year), finishing first party projects and getting 360 ports.
As for cancelled projects, I'm sure Sony would not be too vocal about those. The issue is what happens after Killzone 2, Liar, HS and etc are done. I bet that all the curent signs are pointing to "not much on PS3 front".
ghostlyjoe
Member
Xavien said:
What evidence? The Wii is getting new and unexpected announcement, true. But that hasn't come at the cost of existing PS3 projects, or so it seems.
As for games going multi-plat -- can't argue with that. We've seen a few already, and the rumors are persistent. Each exclusive it loses is one less reason to pay the incredibly high cost of entry.
But again, is that enough to kill the system outright, which is the scenario layed out here? As long as it's getting good software, even if it's not exlusive, it seems there is hope to bring in some cash.
I sorta feel bad for Square....then again...not really.
I dont see Ps3 outright failing/pulling the plug. sony has WAY too much money to let that happen. Thats the main problem this gen. two companies subsidized tech that the market isnt ready for, and the losses would normally put an end two these two premature consoles, but their parent companies have enough money to give the appearance that the consoles are succeeding.
I dont see Ps3 outright failing/pulling the plug. sony has WAY too much money to let that happen. Thats the main problem this gen. two companies subsidized tech that the market isnt ready for, and the losses would normally put an end two these two premature consoles, but their parent companies have enough money to give the appearance that the consoles are succeeding.
ghostlyjoe said:Are those official figures?
Frankly, not enough high-profile games have been released at this point to the software situation is a black hole. And keep in mind that smaller userbases tend to be more rabid userbases. The N64 moved big games. The GC moved big games. The XBox moved big games. I would think games like FFXIII and GOW3 will have an impressive attach rate and produce a profit even on the relatively anemic userbase the PS3 seems to be building.
I do think you have a point. So far there have been 3 major first party projects delivered. 2 have done well and one looks like it was a dismal failure (but I have seen the numbers for the F1 only for a week or so). Not sure that the NBA game should count as a major effort and I don't know what happened to it.
However, the first party effort could be much, much more profitable if directed towards the other platforms - PS2 and even PSP.
Flakster99
Member
ghostlyjoe said:
I believe Sony will do everything in their collective power to have the PS3 come off as a viable, competent, sales machine. From print, to interviews, trade shows, the PS3 will come off as the best thing to own for entertainment in the world. No different from Nintendo's stance on the N64.
They owe it to those responsible for it's software release list, retailers, share holders, etc. Unless it flounders like the 3DO, we likely won't see Sony completely give in to the fact they aren't number one in hardware sales, or they aren't posting a profit. There are factors, numerous ways, to spell, spin success.
ghostlyjoe
Member
Wiitard said:
I'm certainly not an expert on console business, but until this thread, I'd see no such dire predictions. The worst I'd seen was forecasts of GC-like positioning, which isn't great but isn't horrible for owners (despite its reputation, the GC had a lot of good software by the end). But now we're declaring the death of the console and the abandonment of the existing userbase? That's a much different proposition. You'll have to excuse my incredulity, but I'm not yet ready to accept that as likely, let alone inevitable.
fernoca said:
introspection
hehehehe
ghostlyjoe said:
First of all, I'm not claiming PS3 will be a bad console. I actually believe that the abysmal sale may be stimulating Sony first party to take more risks with the games under development because they are desperate to get the next big thing.
If Sony keeps the current strategy, subsidizing hardware at the current rate and sinking in the current amount of money into development, chances are they will end up somewhere in the neighborhood of GC, maybe a just a bit lower, in term of market share.
However, from the business perspective there is zero chance of it being a GC in terms of actually making any money. Actually the course outlined in order for them to become a GC would mean losing billions: further 1-2 billion in subsidizing hardware + cost of keeping the first party the size of Ubisoft with 1/3 or 1/4 or sales. That does not seem like a very smart course to keep.