I think what finally killed the GBA was the DS Lite. It was only $130, looked nice, was still backwards compatible, and the DS library was pretty good by that point. So there was very little reason for anyone to buy a GBA.
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NPD July 2012 Sales Results [Up3: 3DS Hardware Correction - 124K+]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I think what finally killed the GBA was the DS Lite. It was only $130, looked nice, was still backwards compatible, and the DS library was pretty good by that point. So there was very little reason for anyone to buy a GBA.
How does fighting for a smaller pie make the situation any less dire?
Arkham City?? The 2K basketball games are also great. Maybe you aren't into sports games, but to call it total crap?
test_account
XP-39C²
Yeah, it would be great if that was the price for current handhelds. I was actually thinking about that earlier, but it is almost impossible to price the handhelds at that price if we want to see improved hardware power. If Nintendo and Sony should make a $99 handheld in 4-5 years, i think it would be on par with what we have today.
electroplankton
Banned
As we all saw, a too much powerful handheld platform is useless, so better to stick on a lower tech but deliver games.
Daydream Sequence
Banned
There's people that look at the Japanese or European lists and say the same thing. Some people can't get over themselves long enough to grasp that not everyone in the world shares the same taste in games as they do.
metalslimer
Member
I don't think 99 dollars will be feasible for a handheld just dealing with screen costs alone. If they sold it at 99 it would probably have to be at a loss. On the other hand I think no handheld should be above 150. 199 is a dangerous price to be playing especially with the new decent tablets hitting that range. Then it becomes a choice for people to kid their kid an iPad Mini or Nexus 7 or dedicated handheld device. You don't want to be Sony or Nintendo in that comparison.
test_account
XP-39C²
I understand what you mean, but i wouldnt say that it is useless. It allows more things to be done. The problem is when developers doesnt do that.
But both the 3DS and Vita is a step up from what we had before. If someone release a handheld in 4-5 years that is basically exactly the same that we got today, then there are a big chance that the interest will be much lower. Imagine if the 3DS and Vita was on par with the DS and the PSP respectively. That would have caused them to sell even less, i'm pretty sure of that at least. Unless that the price was around $99 and they brought something very new and interesting.
Nintendo lost money even at a price of $180. Imagine how hard it would be to make a $99 system and still profit from it, or at least break even.
Yep, to make a $99 will be really hard unless they dont want to advance anything in hardware, or even do a downgrade from what we have today.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
That's because the DS wasn't the successor to the Gameboy. Remember, it was a "third pillar" and that they were still working on the next Gameboy at the time.
I'd say times are in the process of reverting back to their historical norm.
Historically, the handheld market has been a place where there was one viable handheld, and then some leftover statistical noise (Lynx, Game Gear, NeoGeo Pocket, Wonderswan, Game.com, Nomad, Turbo Express, etc.).
The PSP was the anomaly to history. It was the introduction of the Playstation brand to the handheld industry. At that time, Playstation had only been PS1, and PS2 - the two undisputed kings of their time. Playstation was the very definition of gaming, and it was coming to handhelds to usurp Nintendo the same way that PS1 had demolished Nintendo in the console arena.
PSP launched with tremendous hype and even higher expectations. That combination propelled it to a solid start and a few years of relevance in the west. After those first few years of hype died down, the platform faded and became irrelevant in 80% of the gaming world in the back half of the generation. That early relevance helped it land Monster Hunter in Japan, which propelled it to a sustained relevance in Japan throughout the gen. But for 80% of the world, the last half of the gen was a return to a market with only one viable handheld (DS).
Now with Vita there is no more ridiculous hype. Playstation is still a relevant brand in gaming, but it is no longer king. Much like Sega was a relevant brand with its Game Gear and Nomad, but Sega was nowhere near being the undisputed king of the industry. It was a competitive player in the industry, nothing more - which is what Sony is now.
Without the ridiculous hype that accompanied the PSP, the handheld market has reverted back to it's historical norm. One viable handheld which will hold a monopoly status, and then some leftover noise.
I don't expect the 3DS to reach the highs of the DS, but it should finish up as the 2nd-best selling handheld in their history.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
That was very thorough and elegant. Good show.
Psychotext
Member
Man... NPD threads are dead now. I completely missed this one, so few replies.
Call of Duty sold and some year old games. Nothing really interesting to talk about.. other than retail gaming in decline.
Summer, Olympics, Market is half dead, NPD are more secretive than ever ... shame really, NPD threads use to be huge.
Petrae
Member
There's definitely an attempt to keep these threads interesting. I really do enjoy talking with AnalystGAF every month.
Unfortunately, there are limitations to what can be shared outright. I know that John Harker, myself, and creamsugar try to steer everyone else in the right direction so that there can be some meaningful discussion and analysis. I understand the frustration with the process, having tried to do some analysis based on hearsay and extrapolation before being in the position I've been fortunate enough to be in.
Not that we can provide more information, but what is it that you're looking for out of these threads?
MikeE21286
Member
The idea of the next gen consoles coming and NPD not giving out sales numbers kinda sucks.
metalslimer
Member
Btw I want to say thanks to everyone who provides the information every month. It would have been a shame if we were left in the dark about these kinds of things until fiscal reports came out which aren't even that accurate because they are shipment numbers. The reason there isn't many replies this month is because besides Vita's imminent death there is nothing to discuss. I would say 3/4 of the topic is dealing with Vita and the other is just talking about how slow hardware sales are. Things will go back to normal somewhat with the price cuts on the PS3, 3DS XL, and Wii U
Mutanthands
Member
Very good point.
Saint Gregory
Member
It's amazing that we tend to get better analysis in these threads than we get from professionals.
Duxxy3
Member
This. There are still plenty of software sales to made for lower spec portables (coughblackandwhite2).
Delusibeta
Banned
Pretty much. It'll be November until we that we get figures that can't be summed up by this gif. The fact that there's no more guarantee of publicly released figures dampens the discussion further.
shinra-bansho
Member
Combined All
2012: <727K
2007: 1682K
-56.8%
Combined Console
2012: ~414K
2007: 976K
-57.6%
HD Consoles
2012: ~343K
2007: 329K
+4.3%
SD Consoles
2012: ~71K
2007: 647K
-89.0%
Combined Handhelds
2012: <313K
2007: 706K
-55.7%
Nintendo Handhelds
2012: >250K
2007: 492K
-49%
Sony Handhelds
2012: <62K
2007: 214K
-71.0K
terrisus
Member
Oh, given the situation, it's definitely appreciated to have some guidance. I think it's just longing back for the old days when there used to be much more data here, or looking over at the Media Create threads where we get piles of useful data on a regular basis.
I think the thing I miss most (since, the system numbers do end up being mostly worked out eventually) is game lists broken down by individual SKU. Since, as discussed a bit ago, all we get for a game list now is basically an arrangement of "significant releases which have come out on a bunch of systems," which, alright, is something, but just barely. It gives no way at all to see how games are selling between systems (not that we necessarily need it for "console wars, GameX sells better on SystemY than SystemZ," but just in general), how smaller/niche releases are selling, or how games which may even be fairly well-received but which just aren't released on half a dozen systems to build up that cumulative total sell. As it is now, the game sales list just generally isn't all that interesting.
But, hey, think of all the fun math we get to do in figuring out system sales now!
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Nice... and true.
It just will never be the same as when we had unit-specific access to literally every game on the market. Updating my Excel file with the new info every month for all the Nintendo titles.. ahh, the good old days.
Obviously the whole lumping titles together was the final straw.
Which is mostly due to "professionals" ignoring the Japanese market when trying to predict handheld performance.
electroplankton
Banned
Nope, you don't understand, because I didn't say hardware house should not improve their products, but I think the evolution Nintendo had with its handheld is fine, while tech Sony puts in Vita are unnecessary.
xxbrothawizxx63
Member
200k if KH
Are you crazy? Pre-order lists pointed to 200k first week debut in the US.
I know "the video game site with charts" isn't always amazingly accurate, but they usually get a good ball-park (in my experience they typically under track compared to NPD anyway) and they're reporting 201k first week in the US for KH3D.
I know "the video game site with charts" isn't always amazingly accurate, but they usually get a good ball-park (in my experience they typically under track compared to NPD anyway) and they're reporting 201k first week in the US for KH3D.
The amount of people low-balling KH3D sales predictions is astonishing to me. I opened my 3DS and 4 people were playing the game. Took my 3DS to Universal Studios and of the 10 people I street-passed, 3 were playing KH3D.
AdventureRacing
Member
Hopefully you're not referring to another site which basically just makes up it's numbers. It's possible those numbers could end up true but there is no point even looking at those numbers.
For instance, the #1 selling game of the month and neither EA nor NPD find it right to specify how it did either with units or with % compared to NCAA 12 last year.
xxbrothawizxx63
Member
They're really that bad?
Alas, I guess we'll find out in a month how off they were in this case.
Regardless, I think it's a little crazy for people to be saying as low as 150k for all four weeks.
Oh yeah.
...Even if, I must admit it, their forecasts have been better than Wedbush / Eedar in many cases, and this says something :lol
But still, they're crap.
Version 3.0
Member
No, it never did, but it was close. The lowest point was a reported 57k, and that wasn't certain; for some reason NPD (most likely at Nintendo's request) was combining DS and GBA numbers for those few horrible months.
The DS recovered and went on to become the best-selling system in history. So the Vita isn't officially dead yet. But Nintendo had a landslide of games on the way, including some guaranteed hits like Pokemon. Sony doesn't even have a portable franchise that matters; they'd have to hit on a new one like Brain Training or Nintendogs. Shoe-horning in a home console franchise like Gran Turismo, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, etc is proven to not work.
Four_Chamber
Member
Post is spot-on and can't emphasize the bolded enough. The DS (and later 3DS) struggles cannot be used to prognosticate future success for the Vita.
test_account
XP-39C²
What i understood was what you said that hardware power doesnt always matter to sales.
The evolution Nintendo had with their handheld ment that it cost over $99. What we're discussing is to make a handheld that cost $99. Nintendo lost money on the 3DS even at $180. What are they going to make next that isnt a downgrade from the 3DS, that has mass market appeal, and is still profitable at $99? In ~5 years (when it is time for a new handheld), maybe the production costs for the 3DS is around $99. How is it possible to improve the tech on a new handheld and still make a profit at $99?
Version 3.0
Member
The DS was an anomaly, too. Between the two of them, the handheld market was outlandishly huge for a few years. But I wouldn't call today's market a return to norm. It's far too low for that. It's that, plus the result of the phone market, plus relative overpricing, and maybe some franchise fatigue thrown in.
I'll be shocked if the 3DS manages GBA numbers. It's off to a very poor start and even post-price cut, it hasn't beaten a single equivalent month. I can't see it beating the GBA's total unless it just lives far longer than the GBA did (which was cut short by the PSP forcing Nintendo's hand with the DS).
Good post although I would call Game Gear ad Wonderswan more than "statistical noises".
They weren't as huge as PSP but sold good enough where they were released.
Not many remember how insanely strong was the PSP hype back then.
In the first 1 or 2 years on the market there was really the impression Sony could overtake Nintendo even in that market section.
Then Nintendo crushed them.
NCL publicly lamented that DS wasn't selling good enough to NoA around 2006/2007 while GBA was sales were still stong.
I'll be shocked if it doesn't beat the GBA ltd.
Only way I think 3DS can't reach 80M is if it wll be killed off early as GBA.
BassForever
Member
It's not that there isn't discussion it's just the same discussion about Vita that's in every sales thread.
AdventureRacing
Member
That isn't it at all :/. The reason these threads are so much lower is a combination of the lack of numbers (we pretty much know none of the software) and the poor performance all around. What is there to discuss?
Also the vita is constantly being discussed because it's really the most interesting thing happening right now. Seeing a console/handheld do well or really bad tends to be what produces the most discussion. Seeing a handheld do se bad that it's future doesn't even seem certain isn't something that happens very often.
electroplankton
Banned
Right, the $99 price is likely to be unsustainable. But the less powerful the hardware is, the lower the price you can charge. A hardware like Vita is unnecessarily powerful for the market itself, people don't care to have such tech on portable devices.
PSP was an anomaly in that it was able to become the only handheld to prevent the dominant handheld from owning 85%+ of the market. It actually managed to keep the dominant handheld under 70% marketshare, and that was only because it was coming during the "Playstation" is god era of the brand. And even that insane brand power of the time only managed to keep it relevant as a 2nd-place system for 3 years or so.
The DS was an anomaly in terms of just how insanely well it managed to sell. The DS picked up an entirely new audience in terms of all the casual stuff, and yeah, a good portion of that audience may well be gone now to phones. But that just puts the 3DS largely right back in line with the audience that handhelds have always typically appealed to.
Nah - I have to think you have some overly fond memories of the GBA (or some overly harsh expectations for the 3DS). The GBA sold just over 80M worldwide. The 3DS is projected to be at ~35M by the end of its 2nd full fiscal year (and 2nd holiday season). The 3DS was the top-selling gaming system (console or handheld) in 2011, and will certainly be the best-selling system in 2012 as well. Not bad to be the top-selling system overall in both of its first two years on the market. And yeah, the 3DS will definitely be on the market longer than the GBA by the time its successor comes out - but the GBA had a full life in the US. It still sold nearly 1M units in its 3rd December after the DS had been released! It was still going strong well into its 6th year in the US.
Anyway - I have to disagree. To me, the 3DS seems like a lock to outsell the GBA LTD.
Edit - just for more analysis
Plus, I wouldn't pay so much attention to the slower start of the 3DS. First off - @25 months after launch the GBA was at 33.81M. @26 months after launch the 3DS is currently projected to be at 35.63M. So even if it misses the FY target by 2M, it's still right there with the GBA.
But the GBA had far less competition from its predecessor than either the DS or 3DS had early on.
- during the first year of the GBA worldwide launch, the GBC only sold 4.7M units.
- during the first year of the DS worldwide launch, the GBA sold 15.4M units.
- during the first year of the 3DS worldwide launch, the DS sold 17.52M units.
So the slower starts for DS and 3DS (even though the 3DS is actually projected to catch the GBA through the first 25 months) make sense considering how strong their predecessors were still selling during the first year or two for each system (a problem which the GBA didn't have). I don't expect 3DS sales to jump to the insane levels that the DS reached - but yeah - it seems pretty certain that it will jump past the GBA.
At this point, considering how vast their numbers are, I wouldn't be surprised if they're stealing data from the NPD and just changing the numbers somewhat liberally.
It would be interesting if we could get people in the know to comment on how 'accurate' bullshit site has become.
Lack of available figures certainly doesn't help.
However a good chunk of replies (and GIF) in a NPD thread usually came from the respective userbase bickering to each others.
Currently though there is very little to argue with.
Wii is getting phased out by WiiU, 360 is at the top and Sony always trail back.
On the handheld front 3DS is doing decently but hasn't yet exploded like in Japan so it's potential is still in question (especially seeing how DS almost match 3DS sales every month).
Vita doesn't have Nintendo problem (ie: predecessor selling almost as good as the current system) but just because PSP is almost non-existent.
Vita sales in the first few months are really "impressively" low that's why it is talked the most.
It doesn't help that the whole retail market is contracting, so much that NPD hasted to highlight DD performance.
No one want to buy market analysis of a declining market.
Compared that with what we get in the past decade.
Sega discontinuing the DC even before most player entered the market and exiting the hardware market.
PS2 dominating the chart with the GBA with an intrusion from Xbox that was after that quickly killed off.
Wii, the most unlikeling system, dominating the generation on behalf of Nintendo alone with insane figures (700K+ in slow month like this one).
Then 360 becoming the top platform since 2011.
On handheld front we had GBA getting cut short (but it lasted until 2008), PSP that seemed take over Nintendo turf after disappointing DS performance.
After the lite release fortunes reversed and PSP suffered a slow decline while DS registered some record breaking sales.
test_account
XP-39C²
Sure. I just ment that the hardware tech has come too far (for both 3DS and Vita) in that sense, so it will be very difficult to make a $99 next time without having to downgrade the hardware power, or maybe at best, keep it on par.
I would love to see a $99 handheld, but i think it is a big risk since the hardware power will be about what we already have to today. Then it depends on how many that are interesting in buying a new handheld that is basically the same as they have before (unless there is some very new and unique feature).
Just looking at absolute value of errors in their HW prediction for July 2012, rounded to nearest 5%. I don't know if they're adjusting from their NA number down to US-only in the data shown, but if not then their numbers get even worse than shown below.Yes, I'd like to see something like that
Xbox 360: ~5%
PS3: ~0%
3DS: ~5%
NDS: ~40%
Wii: ~10%
PSV: ~10%
PSP: ~15%
Roughly 15% absolute error in each of the two top software SKUs. Pokemon Conquest is laughably wrong.
Edit: Also, they have MW3 as a top 10 game without Black Ops. Just look at the NPD top 10...