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NPD November 2012 Results [Up6: Black Ops 2, Halo 4, Most Wanted, Assassin's Creed 3]

James Sawyer Ford

James Sawyer Ford

Member
Dynopia said:
I didn't say CS had an agender, just that all he stated was it was under 790k. You're the one assuming here.

If it was 780k that's 1.52m. MS would surely just use marketshare rather than X2.

Even if PS3 did 790k, it's still under 1.26m with Wii combined so 50%+ marketshare (for current gen, which is totally what they're gonna tout next year)
Click to expand...

I would not put it past Microsoft to say they nearly sold 2X when 2X would be 1.52 million.

Again, cream sugar could have used PSV + 3DS, Wii U, or 3DS

The other highest option below the one he picked would be PSV + 3DS, which would be 765K.

So, speculating here, but the range could be 765k - 790K (with the 790K figure being closer) if we are to assume that cream sugar looked at all available combos and picked the closest one.
 
L

Lyude77

Member
Mr. B Natural said:
People that buy consoles day 1 are the fans. Of course mario's attach rate is going to be high...even though it's not nearly as high as it should be considering we know what a zelda day one release could do. And what exactly is mario competing with right now? ZombiU? Now is the time that attach rates would be high. As the userbase increases and varies, they go down. Calling out attach rates about sales or fatigue is absolutely pointless on all accounts. Nobody divided all Wii game sales in half because it had twice the consoles sold or quadruples the Vita's software sales, and they shouldn't...it would be a completely dumb and desperate thing to do.

Nintendo released its biggest weapon on Day 1 and the system did not sell out, and you can say the exact same thing for the 3ds this holiday season. That alone shows fatigue for the 2d mario experience and for mario as the mascot for the brand: the never ending charting plumber with long long legs...except he's not charting anymore..nor is mario kart. Fatigue? Impossible.

In 2006 or even 2010, if someone were to ask, "If Nintendo released a new console and put out a 2d mario day one to help sell it, would it sell out?" You would have been laughed at on Gaf for asking such a stupid question.


Edit: And H4 didn't stand a chance because of Reach's reception. People buy (or don't but) the sequels based on their how they felt about the previous iteration.
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Er...I remember people being laughed at for thinking that NSMB Wii would sell more than Galaxy, saying that a console 2D Mario won't make a difference, Reggie is ridiculous for saying it will sell near Call of Duty, etc. Zelda:TP did 75% or so of the first week for the Wii, Mario did 57.1% for the Wii U. I would agree it's a little disappointing though. I thought it would be 65-70%. Competition would be the pack-in game, probably.
 
M

MrDaravon

Member
BO2 having about a week (?) less of data than MW3 makes it a bit hard to draw a direct correlation. It's sales were probably largely front-loaded, so an extra week would have maaaaaybe made up the difference, but even then at that point you're looking at a wash which would still be bad relatively speaking (no longer growing).
 
B

bananas

Banned
So, it's looking like:

1. Black Ops II (360) - ~4.5MM
2. Halo 4 - ~4.5 > x > 2.9MM
3. Black Ops II (PS3) - ~2.9MM

Or am I wrong?
 
W

wrowa

Member
lunchwithyuzo said:
You port now to build and define an audience. That's how COD went from COD3 selling 20k on PS3 in 2006 to Blops 2 selling over 1m this month.
Click to expand...

Of course, but the Wii U is running out of time. Considering that apparently many developers are already struggling to get current gen ports run on the system as good as they do on PS360, I just have a hard time imagining that they'll invest the time to update their tools so much that the console will be able to play downported PS4/XB3 games if the sales numbers aren't already supporting it.

Like I said earlier, the Wii U is in kind of an awkward place in terms of 3rd party appeal. It's either a year too late or Nintendo should have used hardware that's more future-proof instead of just a little more powerful than PS360.

But, who knows, time will tell.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Aquamarine said:
TOP Combined retail, by sequel number:

1. Call of Duty 9
2. Halo 5 (Halo 6 if you include OST)
3. Assassin's Creed 5
4. Just Dance 5
5. Madden 27
6. Skylanders 2
7. Need for Speed 19
8. NBA 14
9. WWE 15
10. FIFA 20

* This list may have errors.


No WONDER the industry is stagnating.
Click to expand...
Wow, nice job counting them up.

Yeah . . . I do wonder if the industry is caught in a trap . . . it is stagnating since there is nothing new . . . but there is nothing new because no one can take the risk on something new with huge multi-million dollar budgets.
 
G

Gartooth

Member
Holy crap have I missed out on a big thread so far or what. I have to say I'm a little bit disappointed in the Wii U sales, both hard ware and software. (I'm going to assume for now it's not a shortage problem given how relatively easy it is to find one compared to other hardware launches)

In terms of software, Mario I expected to see at the top, though I'm surprised Nintendoland is at #6... although given that Creamsugar said that 75% of Wii U's sold are black, that means most people who want the game got it bundled in so in that context it makes sense why it falls a little bit below the rest.

Also damn at those PSABR numbers, Sony truly sent that game out to die, even I didn't think it would bomb this bad. Still interested to see how Paper Mario Sticker Star did, but overall it seems like the predictable big names got the lion's share of the cash yet another year (CoD, Halo, AC3) but again with overall industry sales tanking.

Really worried about next spring, if this is all November can muster I'm going to hate seeing the graveyard which will be February/March.
 
G

grimshawish

Banned
Not taking the piss but BLOPS 2 could be helped by better legs on the WiiU.
If we assume legs on PS360 will be unchallenged now were getting away from Halo/AC

Probably got hurt in that sandwhich with parents deciding what to get their kids this year.
Not a good sign for MW4 though; BLOPS2 did take some risks and mix the series up a bit.

Plus wasn't MW3 losing online ground to BLOPS1?
 
B

bananas

Banned
EagleEyes said:
I could have sworn when I played Halo 4, Forza horizon, Mark of the Ninja, Fez, Minecraft and Trials Evolution this year it had Microsoft Studios flash on my screen when I booted them up. :p
Click to expand...

I think he meant by not investing in new AAA IPs. End of generation is the worst time to do that.
 
Ein Bear

Ein Bear

Member
Lyude77 said:
Er...I remember people being laughed at for thinking that NSMB Wii would sell more than Galaxy, console Mario won't make a difference, etc. Zelda:TP did 75% or so, Mario did 57.1%. I would agree it's a little disappointing though. I thought it would be 65-70%
Click to expand...

I think Mario's attach rate has less to do with the franchise itself, and more to do with the overall quality of the Wii U launch lineup. Back in 2006, Twilight Princess was the only launch Wii title worth playing (outside of Wii Sports which came with the system anyway), so it was bound to have a large attach rate.

Mario's is really good regardless, but especially so when you consider it's going up against stuff like ZombiU and CoD, which are bound to make a dent.
 
K

kassatsu

Banned
grimshawish said:
Not taking the piss but BLOPS 2 could be helped by better legs on the WiiU.
Click to expand...

"Taking that into account, he had expected total units of 7.9 million across all platforms, including the Wii U and handhelds"

So PC + WiiU + Vita? was 500k

I don't think WiiU will help it.
 
P

Pooya

Member
AniHawk said:
i'm surprised they had halo 4 launch this gen. would have been a perfect early knockout blow next year.
Click to expand...

yeah it was a waste, it could clearly use the extra dev time too.
 
B

bananas

Banned
AniHawk said:
i'm surprised they had halo 4 launch this gen. would have been a perfect early knockout blow next year.
Click to expand...

Well, they needed something this year. And besides, you make more money by selling the game on the machine that more people have. Why do you think Nintendo releases Pokemon BW2 on DS and not 3DS?
 
Crazyorloco

Crazyorloco

Member
Microsoft might as well delay the next xbox to 2014 if it keeps selling like this.

bananas said:
Well, they needed something this year. And besides, you make more money by selling the game on the machine that more people have. Why do you think Nintendo releases Pokemon BW2 on DS and not 3DS?
Click to expand...

Yeah I think it was a good idea to release it on the 360. Large audience and Halo games need that audience to sell the game. Although I do feel the game was rushed for the holidays. It needs done patches and it'll be great.
 
U

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
kassatsu said:
"Taking that into account, he had expected total units of 7.9 million across all platforms, including the Wii U and handhelds"

So PC + WiiU + Vita? was 500k

I don't think WiiU will help it.
Click to expand...

That seems unlikely. Last year Wii was < 100k and PC retail was under that.
 
G

grimshawish

Banned
kassatsu said:
"Taking that into account, he had expected total units of 7.9 million across all platforms, including the Wii U and handhelds"

So PC + WiiU + Vita? was 500k

I don't think WiiU will help it.
Click to expand...

EDIT: Numbers appear pre-NPD anyways.
Vita won't count. Different game.
And I just mean over the next year - I'd expect it to have the best legs of most of the ports.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Last year I was told Xbox 360 and PS3 CoD versions saw a 10% increase over the previous year. That's the origin of the 8.8 million.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
bananas said:
Well, they needed something this year. And besides, you make more money by selling the game on the machine that more people have.
Click to expand...

they basically didn't have anything last year. halo anniversary edition didn't exactly set the world on fire. they could have coasted by again this year with having the best third-party sales.

Why do you think Nintendo releases Pokemon BW2 on DS and not 3DS?
Click to expand...

poor planning and lack of foresight.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
kassatsu said:
"Taking that into account, he had expected total units of 7.9 million across all platforms, including the Wii U and handhelds"

So PC + WiiU + Vita? was 500k

I don't think WiiU will help it.
Click to expand...
That was a note from Creutz prior to the NPD release.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
AniHawk said:
bo2 had one week less of tracking. that is pretty huge to a game like call of duty, which could actually make up those numbers in that time.
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Well, MW3 sold something like 5 million in the US on day 1, then a further 3.8 million for the rest of the month, right? I don't think BLOPS 2 would make up that difference in a week, especially since it's likely more frontloaded (higher preorders).
 
H

Hiro_Kunimi_80

Member
Crazyorloco said:
Microsoft might as well delay the next xbox to 2014 if it keeps selling like this.
Click to expand...

It's safer to release a new product when your Brand is still very popular
rather than after 1 year of low sales and decreased brand identity

like.. wii and wiiU
(still.. imho, wii U would have very different sales result with a nov.2011 release)
 
E

eternalb

Member
Ein Bear said:
Back in 2006, Twilight Princess was the only launch Wii title worth playing (outside of Wii Sports which came with the system anyway), so it was bound to have a large attach rate.
Click to expand...

Excite_Truck_Coverart.png


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