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[GavinGT]

Kinect Sports is already over a million just in the US after two months, and I think Avatars and games like Kinect Sports were absolutely intstrumental in the Kinects success. Rare went from shit to probably MS most important 1st party.

All Rare needs to do to totally make themselves a worthwile purchase: Killer Instinct 3. In the age of fighting games, this would do huge numbers on hype alone, even if it was an unbalanced pos. Rare would be totally redeemed in the minds of the hardcore.

I agree with you about Rare's newfound importance, but just about anybody could have created those avatars.....

 

[ShockingAlberto]

The problem I would raise, basically, is that if you didn't think Kinect would do "terribly well" until you heard about the marketing budget, either a) you didn't think the product would be very appealing, which basically means you were wrong about it, or b) you thought it would be appealing but you didn't think people would have it brought to their attention enough for that appeal to kick in, in which case presumably you didn't remember it was a Microsoft product.

Basically, I see any analysis of Kinect that involved changing one's prediction due to the $500m number as basically having been lacking some key parts to begin with.

I disagree. Kinect could have been hit or miss depending on how Microsoft targeted it. $500 million says they can target it with a shotgun approach and hit many things at once. It means demo stations at every Best Buy and Oprah, it means crazy-ass light up ponchos and down to earth commercials of dance games. Microsoft did not have to choose between going for the soccer mom and someone who wanted to try something new.

Nintendo countered the resistance by releasing a Zelda game and got the Nintendo faithful onboard while reaching to the expanded audience. Microsoft just blasted Kinect silly string over the world and people reacted by saying "Hey, silly string is fucking awesome." In my mind, the $500 million number meant the difference between a quick burst of the success and long term rebranding.

 

[GavinGT]

Kinect would have taken off, $500 million or not.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

either a) you didn't think the product would be very appealing, which basically means you were wrong about it, or b) you thought it would be appealing but you didn't think people would have it brought to their attention enough for that appeal to kick in, in which case presumably you didn't remember it was a Microsoft product.

Basically, I see any analysis of Kinect that involved changing one's prediction due to the $500m number as basically having been lacking some key parts to begin with.

Your premise really tries to negate many principles of fashion/marketing research. From what I see, it seems you are equating advertising to only about be about informing. This is basic stuff Sociology 101/ advertising 101, that you know, but are overlooking.

Seeing Oprah go crazy over the product, creates an added value(thus adds a new appeal value) , beyond the initial value/appeal of the product. People buy if they have funds, appeal value >= want value. Advertising/ marketing creates that additional added(appeal) value.

For some people advertising would be 99 percent of the value, for others it might just add a few value points(but those points are enough to cause them to purchase)

1. Coke vs budget soda brands
2. The entire basis of fashion
etc. etc.

You can go into consumer theory in a consumer society everyone just buying "symbols" based on advertising added value, but I won't go that far.

 

[Karma]

I disagree. Kinect could have been hit or miss depending on how Microsoft targeted it. $500 million says they can target it with a shotgun approach and hit many things at once. It means demo stations at every Best Buy and Oprah, it means crazy-ass light up ponchos and down to earth commercials of dance games. Microsoft did not have to choose between going for the soccer mom and someone who wanted to try something new.

Nintendo countered the resistance by releasing a Zelda game and got the Nintendo faithful onboard while reaching to the expanded audience. Microsoft just blasted Kinect silly string over the world and people reacted by saying "Hey, silly string is fucking awesome." In my mind, the $500 million number meant the difference between a quick burst of the success and long term rebranding.

How do you know they already spent the $500 Million? You are talking out of your ass. You dont know shit.

 

[Plinko]

Well done, MS. Keep the software coming. We really need some better workout software, all the current titles have a billion "rushed to market" problems. They completely lack Kinect Sports' and Dance Central's level of polish.

I love Kinect Sports but there are several areas that show lack of polish. The menu system is an absolute chore and Boxing is a mess in general. I was actually stunned with how inaccurate the boxing was. The bowling minigames also have major trouble reading movement when a lot of action is taking place.

That said, I still think it's a brilliant game and want a sequel soon.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

How do you know they already spent the $500 Million? You are talking out of your ass. You dont know shit.

I don't come here to be insulted. If you want me out of this thread so badly, then I'm out.

 

[Karma]

I don't come here to be insulted. If you want me out of this thread so badly, then I'm out.

What is your data that Microsoft spent all of the $500 Million already? Is it anecdotal?

Okay, sorry. I didn't mean to engage you if I had known you were basically saying nothing.

 

[timetokill]

What is your data that Microsoft spent all of the $500 Million already? Is it anecdotal?

Okay, sorry. I didn't mean to engage you if I had known you were basically saying nothing.

 

[xbhaskarx]

It means demo stations at every Best Buy and Oprah

There are multiple Oprahs?

 

[apana]

There are multiple Oprahs?

Microsoft used their money to clone her.

 

[AceBandage]

There are multiple Oprahs?

Ellen is White Oprah.
Nate is Man Oprah.

 

[Sydle]

Not only MS paid a huge upfront amount for Rare, they also had to pay for running the studio for 9 years and shipping multiple bombs. Too early to say that purchase is redeemed. Obviously if they are able to make more big hits that drive Kinect hardware sales, then they'll turn out to be possibly the greatest asset for MS.

Perfect Dark Zero and Kameo were both profitable according to Rare. I'd imagine that the first Viva Pinata was profitable considering they made a sequel. No telling on Banjo, Viva Pinata DS, or Diddy Kong Racing DS. Kinect Sports is probably already profitable and it wouldn't surprise me to see it have very long legs.

In any case, we mustn't forget that Rare is also a technology R&D house for Microsoft Game Studios. They've helped out Bungie and Turn 10, for example, as well as did the pioneering work on the avatars. More recently they've opened up a new studio dedicated to Kinect R&D and idea testing (even brining in people to test them out), which must be invaluable to the Kinect project overall. Kinect Sports proves they've got a great grasp on the tech already and it has been very well received. With their setup to prove ideas I imagine we'll start to see more software from them that has broader appeal and sales potential. It might be too early to say as much, but I think the future looks bright for Rare's reboot (finally).

 

[Fredescu]

What is your data that Microsoft spent all of the $500 Million already? Is it anecdotal?

"Kinect is the largest, most integrated marketing initiative in Xbox history, bigger than its launch," said Robert Matthews, general manager of global marketing communications for Xbox. "We are going to be spending millions to launch this globally."

That budget was intended specifically for launch. Whether they have spent every last red cent by this day and date is irrelevant. Marketing was given a massive warchest and if you think they've only used a small portion of it you're terribly ignorant.

That said, sales threads involve a lot of reasonable assumptions and no one has the full story on anything. If you're not happy debating under those conditions you should probably avoid sales threads.

 

[Sydle]

I disagree. Kinect could have been hit or miss depending on how Microsoft targeted it. $500 million says they can target it with a shotgun approach and hit many things at once. It means demo stations at every Best Buy and Oprah, it means crazy-ass light up ponchos and down to earth commercials of dance games. Microsoft did not have to choose between going for the soccer mom and someone who wanted to try something new.

Nintendo countered the resistance by releasing a Zelda game and got the Nintendo faithful onboard while reaching to the expanded audience. Microsoft just blasted Kinect silly string over the world and people reacted by saying "Hey, silly string is fucking awesome." In my mind, the $500 million number meant the difference between a quick burst of the success and long term rebranding.

Aren't they the same person?

So you are suggesting that if Sony had the same budget they could have bought people's interests. You believe that the marketing was its key to success. It's fine if you feel that way, just wish you wouldn't beat around the bush. Don't want to go there.

Are there benefits to the long-term rebranding that could not be accomplished with a large launch and long-term marketing? Don't forget this is Microsoft and $500 million is a drop in the bucket for them in the long term, especially if they've tasted so much success already. I would not doubt if the sales have already paid back most if not all of the marketing spend.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Aren't they the same person?

So you are suggesting that if Sony had the same budget they could have convinced people it was "fucking awesome" and people would have eaten it up. You believe that the marketing was its key to success. It's fine if you feel that way, just wish you wouldn't beat around the bush.

It doesn't have to be so clear and cut, Perhapses Move's value to people before marketing was 76(random number) Kinect's was 81. The 500 million dollar marketing value adds a certain amount of extra value/appeal points, pushing people over the line to buy(if used correctly 600 million would add even more).

I think it's reasonable if sony spent $500 million dollars they would have had many more sales as the added appeal value goes up, whatever they would equal Kinect's not really able to say.

Thus, it's fair to understand why Alberto changed his mind when he heard about the advertising budget.

 

[Balb]

It doesn't have to be so clear and cut, Perhapses Move's value to people before marketing was 76(random number) Kinect's was 81. The 500 million dollar marketing value adds a certain amount of extra value/appeal points, pushing people over the line to buy.

I think it's reasonable if sony spent $500 millon dollars they would have had many more sales as the added appeal value goes up, whatever they would equal Kinect's, not really able to say.

Thus, it's fair to understand why Alberto changed his mind when he heard about the advertising budget.

Maybe it's me but, just the look of the controller is a huge turn-off. It's not really clear what it is and why there's a big ball of light on top (talking based on their advertising campaign, obviously I know what the Move is). I agree though that just about anything, with the right marketing budget, can become a smash hit in this day and age but I think the inherent design just makes it look so uncool.

 

[Sydle]

It doesn't have to be so clear and cut, Perhapses Move's value to people before marketing was 76(random number) Kinect's was 81. The 500 million dollar marketing value adds a certain amount of extra value/appeal points.

Thus, it's fair to understand why Alberto changed his mind when he heard about the advertising budget.

Also, I think it's reasonable if sony spent $500 millon dollars they would have had many more sales as the appeal value goes up.

I understand the logic, but I don't think it was his original intention.

 

[apana]

Maybe it's me but, just the look of the controller is a huge turn-off. It's not really clear what it is and why there's a big ball of light on top (talking based on their advertising campaign, obviously I know what the Move is). I agree though that just about anything, with the right marketing budget, can become a smash hit in this day and age but I think the inherent design just makes it look so uncool.

Yeah does look a bit goofy, but the glowing ball serves important purposes.

 

[Htown]

You do realize why the RE4 controls worked so well, right? You don't move and shoot at the same time in RE4. Most FPS and TPS aren't like that, which is why developers still need to figure out how to make pointer controls "work". Killzone 3 is making positive strides, though.

Pointer controls are better than dual analog controls in any game that involves shooting a gun at something on the screen. Moving, not moving, first person, third person, whatever.

 

[RedStep]

The argument that advertising (has the $500m budget ever been confirmed by MS?) made Kinect is BS. No amount of marketing would have sold that many Moves, nor WM+, nor copies of Bayonetta. Marketing is a launch pad, but the product provides the thrust.

 

[plagiarize]

i always laugh whenever people mention the $500 million in the same sentance as Oprah. i'm sure an appearance on Oprah doesn't cost that much more than the cost of the giveaway items.

i'm sure it was actually much more cost effective per dollar than anything Sony did with the Move.

it's a real shame that someone didn't give Sony a few hundred million dollars more to match Microsoft's spending on Kinect, because i'm sure they'd have spent it on a lot of dumb and wholly ineffective campaigns (going on their recent form).

even if marketing made Kinect, you can't just spend $500 million, you have to spend it wisely, on the right things... and Microsoft clearly did.

 

[mu-chan]

i always laugh whenever people mention the $500 million in the same sentance as Oprah. i'm sure an appearance on Oprah doesn't cost that much more than the cost of the giveaway items.

i'm sure it was actually much more cost effective per dollar than anything Sony did with the Move.

it's a real shame that someone didn't give Sony a few hundred million dollars more to match Microsoft's spending on Kinect, because i'm sure they'd have spent it on a lot of dumb and wholly ineffective campaigns (going on their recent form).

even if marketing made Kinect, you can't just spend $500 million, you have to spend it wisely, on the right things... and Microsoft clearly did.

You sure like to say "i'm sure" a lot given all your speculation.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Kinect would have taken off, $500 million or not.

most likely.

 

[plagiarize]

You sure like to say "i'm sure" a lot given all your speculation.

it's an opinion mu chan. would you prefer 'i'm confident'?

 

[basik]

Pointer controls are better than dual analog controls in any game that involves shooting a gun at something on the screen. Moving, not moving, first person, third person, whatever.

scarface wii has great third person move & shoot controls... the problem is there arent many 3rd person wii shooters.

 

[Neuromancer]

How do you know they already spent the $500 Million? You are talking out of your ass. You dont know shit.

I don't come here to be insulted. If you want me out of this thread so badly, then I'm out.

This is why we can't have nice things, Karma.

 

[Beer Monkey]

It's hard to imagine that Kinect is going to be a net money loser for MS even if it fades in a year or so. I don't have a Kinect and I'm still not interested in one, but they have found a market. Even fads can make mad money, and it remains to be seen if Kinect is a fad.

 

[Kilrogg]

This is why we can't have nice things, Karma.

Completely off-topic, but is there a story behind "this is why we can't have nice things"? It's meme-like to me.

 

[Gravijah]

Completely off-topic, but is there a story behind "this is why we can't have nice things"? It's meme-like to me.

It is a meme.

 

[perfectchaos007]

STILL no official PSP numbers? I'm sure we'll get them eventually but the waiting keeps the results from sales prediction AGE to be calculated

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Completely off-topic, but is there a story behind "this is why we can't have nice things"? It's meme-like to me.

It may have been penny arcade.

EDIT: http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/this-is-why-we-cant-have-nice-things

 

[GavinGT]

It may have been penny arcade.

EDIT: http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/this-is-why-we-cant-have-nice-things

I remember hearing that phrase in the movie Mafia!, from 1998. And that certainly wasn't the first time it was used (though one of the better uses).

 

[jvm]

STILL no official PSP numbers? I'm sure we'll get them eventually but the waiting keeps the results from sales prediction AGE to be calculated

I'll post it when I get up tomorrow. Article doesn't have them, but I usually add them to my post.

FWIW, PS2 was down in December from November. First time I've ever seen that.

 

[C4Lukins]

I agree with you about Rare's newfound importance, but just about anybody could have created those avatars.....

Yes, but it took MS to integrate it into just about every level of their platform, from friends lists, to XBLA and XNA games, to retail titles most of which were not first party. And not anyone could have done it, because Sony failed miserably at it. Nintendo did a great job with the Mii's but limited their integration way to much. Nobody wants to see your creepy ass Home avatar in games, and Nintendo limits the ability to see your Avatars in games. It was a nice balance that Rare came up with, and MS did the smart thing and allowed it to be a platform sort of thing and not an exclusive MS thing.

 

[BowieZ]

Completely off-topic, but is there a story behind "this is why we can't have nice things"? It's meme-like to me.

I first heard it in the Simpsons episode "Trilogy of Error" (2001), but it originated earlier than that.

Lisa: Meet Linguo, the grammar robot. I built him all by
myself. If you misuse language, he'll correct you.
Homer: Well, let's put him to the test. [slowly] Me love beer.
Linguo: *I* love beer.
Homer: Aw, he loves beer. Here, little fellow. [pours a handy
can of beer in Linguo's mouth]
Lisa: Dad, no!
Linguo: [shorting out] Error.
Homer: I'm sorry. I thought he was a party robot.
Lisa: Ugh. This is why I can't have nice things. [growls,
takes Linguo and goes upstairs]

 

[C4Lukins]

I disagree. Kinect could have been hit or miss depending on how Microsoft targeted it. $500 million says they can target it with a shotgun approach and hit many things at once. It means demo stations at every Best Buy and Oprah, it means crazy-ass light up ponchos and down to earth commercials of dance games. Microsoft did not have to choose between going for the soccer mom and someone who wanted to try something new.

Nintendo countered the resistance by releasing a Zelda game and got the Nintendo faithful onboard while reaching to the expanded audience. Microsoft just blasted Kinect silly string over the world and people reacted by saying "Hey, silly string is fucking awesome." In my mind, the $500 million number meant the difference between a quick burst of the success and long term rebranding.

They did not spend 500 million dollars to sell you a Kinect camera. They spent 500 millions dollars to sell you a Kinect Camera, sell you 360 consoles, sell you over a dozen Kinect titles, virtually sell you 1st and 3rd party games that were not even Kinect related by selling you the console, (Call of Duty, Halo, Assassins Creed, MS DLC, Gold Subscriptions.....).


When people look at it as a one to one thing, not that you are, it is missing the marketing strategy here. The idea that they may have broken even just off of cameras would be quite extraordinary, but it was never a 500 million dollar campaign to simply sell cameras. It is just as if you had the exclusive rites to market GTA4 and exclusive DLC. You are selling more then GTA4, you are selling the system, controllers, the game itself, the DLC, Gold memberships, point cards, and additionally games because you brought in new users.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

I'll post it when I get up tomorrow. Article doesn't have them, but I usually add them to my post.

What is the reasoning behind NPD just releasing bits and pieces of info to different people? yet, In the end basically giving us the same facts they had before?

 

[GavinGT]

Yes, but it took MS to integrate it into just about every level of their platform, from friends lists, to XBLA and XNA games, to retail titles most of which were not first party. And not anyone could have done it, because Sony failed miserably at it. Nintendo did a great job with the Mii's but limited their integration way to much. Nobody wants to see your creepy ass Home avatar in games, and Nintendo limits the ability to see your Avatars in games. It was a nice balance that Rare came up with, and MS did the smart thing and allowed it to be a platform sort of thing and not an exclusive MS thing.

I wasn't aware that Rare had such control over the planning of the project. Still, all they did was copy Nintendo's idea and implement it a little better.

 

[shintoki]

Don't know what is worse, Seeing people downplay a 500million+ marketing budget from MS, or those who pretend Sony is so poor and can't even afford to advertise.

This isn't a discredit at Kinect, but 500mil will sell just about anything. The flood of media produced through those efforts will make it a hot topic regardless. Adding on that the product has only been out for 2 months. There really hasn't been any indication of the longevity of the product.

With Move, Sony still spent millions on. More or less likely, they just kept to the typical Holiday budget and really didn't adjust. Their system relaunch was with the Slim model, while MS's was with Kinect.

 

[C4Lukins]

I wasn't aware that Rare had such control over the planning of the project. Still, all they did was copy Nintendo's idea and implement it a little better.

I misspoke by saying Rare had so much control. It was probably MS at the end of the day who allowed Avatars to be so open.

 

[HK-47]

Don't know what is worse, Seeing people downplay a 500million+ marketing budget from MS, or those who pretend Sony is so poor and can't even afford to advertise.

Can we set both groups on fire?

 

[shintoki]

Can we set both groups on fire?

Deus Vult!

 

[Alx]

Do we know how much a "regular" marketing campaign costs by the way ? 500 millions sounds like a lot, but I have no idea of what is usually spent for similar products during the holidays. Especially since as a consumer, the kinect campaign doesn't look stronger than what Nintendo or Sony did in the past.

 

[shintoki]

Do we know how much a "regular" marketing campaign costs by the way ? 500 millions sounds like a lot, but I have no idea of what is usually spent for similar products during the holidays. Especially since as a consumer, the kinect campaign doesn't look stronger than what Nintendo or Sony did in the past.

Nintendo spent 200million on Wii's launch

Same report says it's twice as high as 360's initial launch. And it's been a while, but wasn't the PS3 Slim Relaunch, something like 150-200million from then, through out the Holiday season last year.

It's definitely unmatched by a shit load, and probably the best proof of MS throwing their weight around.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Do we know how much a "regular" marketing campaign costs by the way ? 500 millions sounds like a lot, but I have no idea of what is usually spent for similar products during the holidays. Especially since as a consumer, the kinect campaign doesn't look stronger than what Nintendo or Sony did in the past.

Speaking as a consumer, I saw more Move commercials this fall than Kinect-specific commercials. I think people grossly underestimate MS' cross-country mall tour as a vehicle for pushing Kinect to the masses, it had huge word of mouth before the ad campaign even started.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I think people grossly underestimate MS' cross-country mall tour as a vehicle for pushing Kinect to the masses, it had huge word of mouth before the ad campaign even started.

Indeed.

I have never seen a Move demo station in any of the numerous stores I've visited in Northern Ireland, and yet there is almost always one for Kinect.

 

[Prine]

Perfect Dark Zero and Kameo were both profitable according to Rare. I'd imagine that the first Viva Pinata was profitable considering they made a sequel. No telling on Banjo, Viva Pinata DS, or Diddy Kong Racing DS. Kinect Sports is probably already profitable and it wouldn't surprise me to see it have very long legs.

In any case, we mustn't forget that Rare is also a technology R&D house for Microsoft Game Studios. They've helped out Bungie and Turn 10, for example, as well as did the pioneering work on the avatars. More recently they've opened up a new studio dedicated to Kinect R&D and idea testing (even brining in people to test them out), which must be invaluable to the Kinect project overall. Kinect Sports proves they've got a great grasp on the tech already and it has been very well received. With their setup to prove ideas I imagine we'll start to see more software from them that has broader appeal and sales potential. It might be too early to say as much, but I think the future looks bright for Rare's reboot (finally).

Well said. This is my assessment of Rare thus far too. They're still one of the top dev houses to work for in UK too, and we have lots of talented minds here. Steve Burk was unknown and fresh when Rare picked him up and he left as an accomplished composer. I have no doubt Rare can replenish talent due to their history and position in UK gaming industry.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I'm batshit reasonable. Does this count?

Holy crap, I'd forgotten you could talk.

 

[Alx]

I think people grossly underestimate MS' cross-country mall tour as a vehicle for pushing Kinect to the masses

That's probably where the additional money went, then. It makes sense, since paying people to showcase the product is probably more expensive than distributing demo kiosks that don't need human resource.
Not a bad idea either, since the system requires a bit of "consumer education".