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NPD Sales Results for February 2012 [Up 3: Kingdoms Of Amalur, Syndicate, Asura]

N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
DMeisterJ said:
The whole EA Parner's program is weird to me. So EA publishes the game, but doesn't own the rights to it. How does it help EA if it becomes successful? What stops a game from being made by a developer and published by EA, and then the dev getting a different publisher for a sequel, effectively getting EA to market a game that they may never see another dollar from?
Click to expand...

They get the right of first refusal on the first sequel, at which point they feel they've either earned that developer's trust, or they failed at their job.

For example, Crytek is past right of first refusal now, but they're still making a new game with EA based on job postings.

Portal 2 was also a distribution deal that came past EA's original contract with Valve.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
I hate to interrupt all the FF discussion, but in case it's of interest to people watching sales, the latest Rentrak chart came out in the last couple of days. Remember, we still aren't sure how reliable they are. For example, Rentrak consistently lists Zumba/Zumba 2 but they didn't appear in the combined-SKU top 10 for NPD.

Rentrak Top Selling Video Games 26 February - 3 March 2012
  1. (X360) - SSX - EA Sports
  2. (PS3) - SSX - EA Sports
  3. (X360) - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Activision
  4. (DS) - Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2 - Atlus
  5. (WII) - Just Dance 3 - Ubisoft
  6. (WII) - Zumba Fitness - Majesco
  7. (PS3) - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Activision
  8. (X360) - UFC Undisputed 3 - THQ
  9. (WII) - Zumba Fitness 2 - Majesco
  10. (PS3) - Twisted Metal - SCEA
Still waiting on Nintendo update their top 10 lists on their site with the February data. I have started a separate sheet for the downloads in 2012, and will probably do the same for the retail sales, so look for those URLs to change.

Official page:
http://rentrak.com/section/corporat...op_10_charts.html?ga=videogame#videogame-head

Here is the Rentrak archive:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtXhc02VTSWzdEpqZ24teUl0ZzFwYmZuSlF4dEN0Qnc
 
B

BKK

Member
Do we have any idea of market coverage or retailers tracked by Rentrak? All I could find was this page.

Just 72 hours after the close of each business week, Retail Essentials delivers U.S. and Canadian home entertainment sell-through data broken down by title, format, category, genre, TV market and more.
Click to expand...

It would be nice for NPD to have some actual competition.
 
D

Derrick01

Banned
FLEABttn said:
I'm really not liking the use of "generic" being a code word for "they made an isometric game I like an FPS and now I'm bitter".

Syndicate is one of the better single player shooters this gen. Those sales are just sad.
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It's really not. Bitterness put aside it's an extremely generic and lifeless FPS from normal standards let alone Starbreeze standards. Everything about that game felt like a cash in from both EA and them.
 
R

Road

Member
jvm said:
I hate to interrupt all the FF discussion, but in case it's of interest to people watching sales, the latest Rentrak chart came out in the last couple of days. Remember, we still aren't sure how reliable they are. For example, Rentrak consistently lists Zumba/Zumba 2 but they didn't appear in the combined-SKU top 10 for NPD.

Rentrak Top Selling Video Games 26 February - 3 March 2012
  1. (X360) - SSX - EA Sports
  2. (PS3) - SSX - EA Sports
  3. (X360) - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Activision
  4. (DS) - Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2 - Atlus
  5. (WII) - Just Dance 3 - Ubisoft
  6. (WII) - Zumba Fitness - Majesco
  7. (PS3) - Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Activision
  8. (X360) - UFC Undisputed 3 - THQ
  9. (WII) - Zumba Fitness 2 - Majesco
  10. (PS3) - Twisted Metal - SCEA
Still waiting on Nintendo update their top 10 lists on their site with the February data. I have started a separate sheet for the downloads in 2012, and will probably do the same for the retail sales, so look for those URLs to change.

Official page:
http://rentrak.com/section/corporat...op_10_charts.html?ga=videogame#videogame-head

Here is the Rentrak archive:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtXhc02VTSWzdEpqZ24teUl0ZzFwYmZuSlF4dEN0Qnc
Click to expand...

Don't think Zumba was an issue this month. It barely appeared in the top 10 (twice at no. 10 and once at no. 8).

This month we can just throw in NPD numbers in this particular Rentrak weekly chart:

19 February - 25 February 2012

1. X360 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
2. PSV Uncharted: Golden Abyss - "just over 100k"
3. PS3 Twisted Metal
4. X360 UFC Undisputed 3
5. PS3 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
6. PS3 Asura's Wrath
7. WII Just Dance 3
8. PS3 UFC Undisputed 3
9. X360 Asura's Wrath
10. WII Zumba Fitness

And Asura's Wrath was 36k combined for NPD. Not weird to see the PS3 version being favored. Sindycate 34k combined, but nowhere in the chart.

I think none of these games had bundles or limited editions, so that's one factor we can ignore when making the comparison.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Road said:
stuff
Click to expand...
Good points, Road. So are you feeling better about looking at Rentrak for some surface-level info on software sales?

I don't think they're anywhere near NPD-level yet, but it's good to see some things matching up.
 
R

reggieandTFE

Member
I can't believe Revelations didn't sell more. The damn game was sold out at a bunch of stores in Chicago the first couple days it came out. They must not have ordered that many copies.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Road said:
This month we can just throw in NPD numbers in this particular Rentrak weekly chart:

19 February - 25 February 2012

1. X360 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
2. PSV Uncharted: Golden Abyss - "just over 100k"
Click to expand...
Could that be taken to imply that MW3 is selling over ~100K on a weekly basis on the 360?
 
B

BKK

Member
jvm said:
Good points, Road. So are you feeling better about looking at Rentrak for some surface-level info on software sales?

I don't think they're anywhere near NPD-level yet, but it's good to see some things matching up.
Click to expand...

They seem like a legitimate tracker, and as they're the only one offering weekly and individual format charts I see nothing wrong in using them for these even if they have less coverage than NPD.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
reggieandTFE said:
I can't believe Revelations didn't sell more. The damn game was sold out at a bunch of stores in Chicago the first couple days it came out. They must not have ordered that many copies.
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RE:R sold more under 100k than Uncharted sold over it, but only by a tiny amount
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
pieatorium said:
yes I would assume so, for comparison 360 version of Blops did 390k last February
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MW3 was down SIGNIFICANTLY in Feb 2012 relative to Blops in Feb 2011. Like, enough that Xbox 360 version doing 100K in a week doesn't seem remotely realistic unless there were a promotion that week. And even then...
 
P

-Pyromaniac-

Member
jvm said:
MW3 was down SIGNIFICANTLY in Feb 2012 relative to Blops in Feb 2011. Like, enough that Xbox 360 version doing 100K in a week doesn't seem remotely realistic unless there were a promotion that week. And even then...
Click to expand...
I truly wonder if it's because the series hit a peak and is now dropping, or because black ops was the superior game (factually it was).

Interesting stuff.
 
B

BKK

Member
CoD has been losing market share to Battlefield, it would be interesting to see if Battefield's presumed Feb increase offset CoDs Feb decrease.
 
P

pieatorium

Member
jvm said:
MW3 was down SIGNIFICANTLY in Feb 2012 relative to Blops in Feb 2011. Like, enough that Xbox 360 version doing 100K in a week doesn't seem remotely realistic unless there were a promotion that week. And even then...
Click to expand...

Yeah you are right we know that it did less then Twisted metal in the single format charts so that would put it under 221k for the 360 version. Were they selling games early with the FEB? might explain how Uncharted could both be over 100k and be beaten by COD, but if that was the case it shoud have shown up in the previous weeks chart aswell one would think.
 
M

Messofanego

Banned
Derrick01 said:
It's really not. Bitterness put aside it's an extremely generic and lifeless FPS from normal standards let alone Starbreeze standards. Everything about that game felt like a cash in from both EA and them.
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I'd like you to elaborate on this, because to me the game is at its best when you're not playing it like a standard shooter and using the abilities to their fullest extent. It's an FPS with powers, basically. The environments and locations are full of life. This ranks along The Darkness, Deus Ex HR, Stalker, and Bulletstorm as one of the more interesting takes on the FPS of this generation.

Far from a cash-in, but I'd like your input on why it is.
 
J

jcm

Member
Chris1964 said:
USA 100k less
Japan 400k less
European sales of XIII would have to be really outstanding.
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Kagari said:
Europe - 1.1 million, which was the same for FFXII.
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I don't know how to explain the discrepancy, except to point out that it exists. Sales outside trackers? Sales outside tracked areas? Bad tracking? You guys apparently have access to data I don't, but you're claiming (I think) somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.9 JP, 1.1 Eu and 1.3 US, right? So that leaves 1.9M unaccounted for, and there's simply no way there's that many unsold units.

Maybe this just demonstrates the limitations of trackers vs. the verifiability of shipments.
 
H

Hammer24

Banned
jvm said:
MW3 was down SIGNIFICANTLY in Feb 2012 relative to Blops in Feb 2011. Like, enough that Xbox 360 version doing 100K in a week doesn't seem remotely realistic unless there were a promotion that week. And even then...
Click to expand...

JVM, any word on when your article will release?
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
jcm said:
I don't know how to explain the discrepancy, except to point out that it exists. Sales outside trackers? Sales outside tracked areas? Bad tracking? You guys apparently have access to data I don't, but you're claiming (I think) somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.9 JP, 1.1 Eu and 1.3 US, right? So that leaves 1.9M unaccounted for, and there's simply no way there's that many unsold units.

Maybe this just demonstrates the limitations of trackers vs. the verifiability of shipments.
Click to expand...

USA is 500k more and there are many terrritories that aren't include here, Canada, Australia, rest of Asia, rest of America and 15-20% sales from Europe gfk doesn't cover.
 
A

AgentOtaku

Member
Derrick01 said:
It's really not. Bitterness put aside it's an extremely generic and lifeless FPS from normal standards let alone Starbreeze standards. Everything about that game felt like a cash in from both EA and them.
Click to expand...

Cash-in? Maybe for EA

Syndicate's SP feels like Starbreeze never quite got a handle on what they wanted to do with it though (or maybe weren't in complete control)

They brought in Richard Morgan and who knows, maybe like Crytek, they thought "that would be enough to take care of the story"

It still deserved FAR better sells as it's an excellent shooter with a fun coop.
 
R

Road

Member
jvm said:
Good points, Road. So are you feeling better about looking at Rentrak for some surface-level info on software sales?

I don't think they're anywhere near NPD-level yet, but it's good to see some things matching up.
Click to expand...
Well, I'm liking the weekly chart for curiosity. Maybe it's horribly wrong, maybe it's more versimilar than NPD. Without numbers from both trackers is impossible to compare. It'd help knowing if Rentrak is at least getting info from the biggest retailers (GameStop, Walmart etc.) or not.

shinra-bansho said:
Could that be taken to imply that MW3 is selling over ~100K on a weekly basis on the 360?
Click to expand...
Even if MW3 did sell over 100k that one week for the 360, that doesn't imply anything about the other weeks at all. For all we know, it could have sold 10k the week before. It's, again, impossible to know without the numbers.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
I'm told it will go up shortly. I'm going to be AFK, but y'all post comments/corrections here, please. I'll be back in a bit.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Petrae said:
jvm's analysis is now live.
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Graphs from the article for ya all!!!

ytd-hardware-sales.png


first-year-sales.png


xbox-wii-bases.png
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Father_Brain said:
(100K - RE:R) > (U:GA - 100K)

The implication from that wording seems to be that both sold fairly close to 100K, but I could have that wrong.
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The puzzle is solved when you combine this with what creamsugar said about U:GA, "just a tiny bit over 100k"
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
jvm said:
I said last month that I didn't have high hopes for a $250 dedicated handheld launching in this market, and February's results have done nothing to dissuade me. Not only are hardware sales down across the board, but the Vita's sales are clearly clustered around its lower-priced model.

Look for March sales to surpass February's sales, but not by much. Most of the month-over-month increase will likely be because March is a five-week month on the retail calendar while February was only four weeks. By May, I feel that the system's sales will be on a downward trajectory and at that point it will be up to Sony to move to help the system along.
Click to expand...

Just wondering - why would that be the case for Vita when it wasn't the case for 3DS in April of last year? Not really seeing a basis for that prediction, particularly looking at the software shipping for Vita this month.

Granted, one could argue that sales will pick up on the basis of word of mouth about the hardware, but there's no such argument made to back it up. Curious about your reasoning for that.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Mpl90 said:
Graphs from the article for ya all!!!

xbox-wii-bases.png
Click to expand...

This is an interesting graph. So by the time we reach May 2012, 360 will have cut the Wii's lead by almost 4 million in two years. Assuming that the 720 (or whatever) launches next year, the 360 could get within 1-2M of the Wii LTD in the US. Would that be the closest console race ever in the US? How close were the SNES and Genesis?
 
Petrae

Petrae

Member
Father_Brain said:
Why would that be the case for Vita when it wasn't the case for 3DS in April of last year? Not really seeing a basis for that prediction, particularly looking at the software shipping for Vita this month.

Granted, one could argue that sales will pick up on the basis of word of mouth about the hardware, but there's no such argument made to back it up.
Click to expand...

My guess is because sales are expected to start at a higher level early in the period and then gradually taper throughout the five-week cycle. It's not a guarantee, of course, but I think I can see jvm's thought process here.

I'm a bit more bearish in terms of what I think Vita will do this month as rising fuel costs, dwindling tax refund availability, and a tepid software lineup all indicate a mild decline in March.
 
M

Miles X

Member
kswiston said:
This is an interesting graph. So by the time we reach May 2012, 360 will have cut the Wii's lead by almost 4 million in two years. Assuming that the 720 (or whatever) launches next year, the 360 could get within 1-2M of the Wii LTD in the US. Would that be the closest console race ever in the US? How close were the SNES and Genesis?
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'could'? it's going to easily overtake the Wii at this point. They just need to sustain the rate at which it was outselling the Wii last year (2.7m~)

Even if MS fall short of their "2012 bigger than 2011" promise, they won't be wildly off if that's their expectations (and they've been meeting their expectations lately so I see no reason not to put faith in them)

That said, even if MS falter and only hit 6m, the Wii really isn't going to be over 3m this year going by the drops it's been seeing YoY (down 2.5m+ in 2010, and again, 2.5m+ in 2011)

That puts the gap at 2.7m with the Wii basically on its deathbed and MS coming off a 6m year. Even if sales of the 360 plummeted, it'd have to be a worse crash than the Wii received to not get another 2.7m.

MS will support the 360 up to the 720 launch, a good 2~ years left in it, it'll end at least a couple of mill above Wii.
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
Petrae said:
My guess is because sales are expected to start at a higher level early in the period and then gradually taper throughout the five-week cycle. It's not a guarantee, of course, but I think I can see jvm's thought process here.

I'm a bit more bearish in terms of what I think Vita will do this month as rising fuel costs, dwindling tax refund availability, and a tepid software lineup all indicate a mild decline in March.
Click to expand...

I'm not really sure why they'd be expected to start at a higher relative level, though. 3DS, after all, had an only slightly longer reporting period (six days) in the March 2011 NPD, and no pre-launch FEB period before that in which a significant chunk of units were sold. But we'll see when next month's numbers roll in.
 
M

Miles X

Member
StevieP said:
I think you're stretching a bit, Dynopia.
Click to expand...

How so? I'm just going off what we've seen so far. It's a stretch to suggest the 360 is going to be massively down when it's never been down YoY and MS expect another big year. Yet Wii is consistantly down millions YOY
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I respect jvm's analysis a lot, but Sony cutting the PS3's price again in April seems unlikely to me. Sony didn't really seem enthused by the results of their last price cut.
 
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