Was this posted yet?
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6948&Itemid=2
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for July 2007
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Rocksteady33
Junior Member
titiklabingapat
Member
Was my point.Rocksteady33 said:
AlteredBeast said:Kudos to them. I am far happier having Nintendo as our overlords than Sony. Keeping MS in 2nd keeps them trying hard, too. If they got first, they would start raping us with high prices, worse microtransactions, etc. A comfortable second for MS is a good thing.
I agree for the most part, I'm a 360 only owner but I'd rather see MS in second place to keep them working hard for the gamers so we get what we want. I'm not ready for MS rape time just yet.
Rocksteady33
Junior Member
besada said:
I don't really care either way if Nintendo becomes dominant number one, I just want heavy competition between PS3 and Xbox 360. I don't want to have to fork out $500/$600 on a PS3 so I can play one exclusive game that I really want only to not get a whole lot of other stuff on it, because 360 is the primary HD console of choice. Not to mention if PS3 continues to slump behind third party ports will become sloppier and 360 versions will always be superior, which would suck.
besada said:
Yeah it would be nice if it was more even across the board, but with the pricing blunder of PS3 it looks to be a two horse race at least in the United States. I'm pretty interested to see how pre-Christmas sales unfold with the heavy software lineup MS is rolling out over the next few months. Will it be enough to get people to fork out the $350 entry fee? I think with GTA 4 it would have helped but until MS hits $199/$249 for the Pro I just don't see Wii domination ending. Sony is in a whole-nother world of hurt with PS3.
Mrbob said:
Definitely, but will they be able to capitalize on Wii losing customers because of a lack of supply in the lead up to Christmas? Will those people that can't get a Wii buy a 360 instead even with the $350 tag? Or will they turn to something else like the PS2 with a much lower pricepoint? Americans are definitely in love with cheaper prices no matter what the product.
My other question was is Nintendo holding back supply to stock up for the Christmas rush? Or will they sell 400k in the United States for November and December? 800k total would be a disasterous scenario when they could push 2.5 million out the door with plenty of Wii's in stock. I guess we'll find out.
unomas said:
it's so hard to get a handle on the way the rest of the year will play out, at least in terms of quantities. will nintendo be able to manufacture enough wiis? how in the world are holiday shoppers going to react to a $500/600 ps3? i certainly can't call it. tentatively, i'm thinking something along these lines
Code:
month wii 360 ps3
----- --- --- ---
aug 400 300 130
sep 480 350 150
oct 400 250 120
nov 700 600 300
dec 1400 1200 600
total 3380 2700 1300all numbers in thousands, but i'm not in any way comfortable with wii/ps3 numbers for nov/dec. certainly if nintendo has the supply, they could probably sell 3 million over those two months combined. i'm just not sure they'll have it.
Saint Gregory
Member
Mrbob said:
I'd be really stunned if GTA4 launches before fall '08. Not because it won't be ready, but because it's such a huge game.
Nintendo has released some heavy hitters during the off season and Capcom released RE4 in January (although it was almost like they wanted that to fail) but I can't see a game as big as GTA coming out in spring. I've been wrong before though.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I would say 250 for August, 300 for September. Other than that, I would agree with your predictions for 360. Your PS3 predictions I reckon are at least 200k underestimated and your Wii prediction overall looks to be accurate as far as my guesses go.
Saint Gregory
Member
Odysseus said:
As much as I hate to support the "False Shortage" posters, it's a good bet that Nintendo is setting aside stock for the holidays. The surge in Wiis for Japan's Golden Week holiday seems to be evidence of that possibility.
Saint Gregory said:
i don't think it's a false shortage as much as it is good business. nintendo is shipping quite a number of wiis right now, i don't know how anyone could be critical of the quantities reaching shelves. but setting some aside for the mad holiday season is to be expected. my only wonder is how fine a line are they walking. i think my wii numbers are sort of middle of the road in terms of what to expect. they could be off by several hundred thousand either way.
plagiarize
Banned
exactly. anyone thinking you can predict rankings from it when for most of july the PS3 was the best selling console *period* is on the crazy train.titiklabingapat said:
FitzOfRage
Member
I'm wondering how far in excess of the GC userbase will the Wii have to sell before certain people are willing to admit that it actually might be reaching more than just GC owners...
plagiarize
Banned
i love the 'false shortage' argument, because the Wii is the fastest selling console ever.Odysseus said:
why people find it hard to believe that nintendo underestimated demand i'll never get.
FitzOfRage said:
or how far short of 120 million that 360 and ps3 will have to come
deny it all you want, fellers, but wii is selling to a lot of people and if publishers are smart, resources will start shifting. it's not going to be just an expanded market that wii serves, nintendo is grabbing a lot of the existing one.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
They haven't underestimated demand for 6 months now, probably. They just can't keep enough to keep store shelves full. The wii is selling phenomanally worldwide. Something the PS3 and 360 can't say for themselves...
Saint Gregory
Member
FitzOfRage said:
I think at that point they'll just argue that the GC wasn't counted accurately by the NPD.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Fuzzy said:the Wii has to pass the NES's 34 million for North America.
It will.
dark10x said:
Yes they could've. Physics and AI routines can be approximated (because both are the result of clever programming moreso than they are raw processing power). The difference would be entirely visual (i.e. perhaps the mud tracks wouldn't be there on the next lap) in the hands of a developer with talent. Every game so far this gen could have been at least approximated somewhat faithfully on last gen hardware. Just a LOT less pretty.
Given the existing library and how few sales it takes to hit the top 10 during July, having 3 of the 4 3rd party titles at the bottom of the list kinda negates their use in arguments; they basically become outliers. RE4 selling 90k or whatever is useful information to determine trends; The Bigs selling probably around 20k-30k isn't.Count Dookkake said:
FYI this also means that Overlord and Dirt being in the top 10 for 360 doesn't really mean anything, which is a bit depressing.
You tell me?
titiklabingapat
Member
I'm interested in your thoughts of what the state of third parties, Nintendo itself and the Wii are gonna be in the long term if third party publishers aren't smart at all and just treat the Wii as they are treating it now 3 years down the line.Odysseus said:
titiklabingapat said:
my prediction for third parties if they don't jump on board:
pain
it will hurt wii growth certainly, but nintendo will still make money. third parties relying on 360/ps3 to sustain their business models are going to be in for a pinch. those systems' bases aren't growing fast enough. it's up to ps2/wii/handhelds to provide the supplemental income they'll need even if they see the long term success of the industry still riding the "hd" consoles.
titiklabingapat
Member
Yeah...Link316 said:
Madden is a nice one but it seems like the Wii version is the worst version this time around, and the marketing, well. It's almost setting it up for failure. Almost.
Guitar Hero III is the true test, imo. Level playing field through and through and it all comes down to marketing.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Link316 said:
Proof positive that Link316 is an idiot.
Odysseus said:
Resources shift when they're not making money. Publishers are making money in truckloads on 360, and have the easy PC port option.
Someone had a more likely idea earlier - companies will likely expand and/or re-designate other resources to make more Wii stuff, not shift 360 projects over there.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
VALIS said:
I again point you to the developers that are "making money" on the 360: Develo9pers who at one time defaulted to PC development primarily. The 360 is benefiting from PC cross development, but the PC isn't exactly a bastion of development or even focused on by the majority of developers that typically work on consoles.
Rancid Mildew
Banned
That is awesome. I'm bookmarking Link316's comment. Always knew he didn't do his homework. It was a bit hard to catch him since he usually repeats what everyone else says.
LM4sure said:
That makes no sense at all. If it were difficult for 3rd parties to make money on the 360 then there'd be a huge uproar and crisis since they aren't making money anywhere else right now. 360 software sales are great every single month, this has been noted time and again. When a complete piece of junk like Tenchu Z sells 100K in under a month on 360, believe me, people are making money there.
titiklabingapat
Member
Based on this article, only Nintendo and THQ gained marketshare last year and alot of the publishers that relied heavilly on the HD consoles actually lost them or remained stagnant. Activision was fine becasue of Guitar Hero 2. THQ is also fine with heavy 360 support.VALIS said:
EA lost -3% marketshare, Lucasarts lost marketshare by 1%, Take Two is expecting losses or breaking even despite Bioshock, Namco Bandai is expecting slower growth despite profits, Midway projected to incur losses despite heavy 360 support, Capcom incurred a -14% loss despite Dead Rising and Lost Planet. All publishers heavilly supported and supports the 360 during the fiscal period.
And all it takes is one $20M bomba.
Those that supported that didn't ignore the Wii like Ubisoft are quite healthy and those that supported the PS3 heavily are in for more pain.
titiklabingapat
Member
Capcom lost 14% in profits. EA lost a staggering 67% despite Madden 360 selling very well.VALIS said:
titiklabingapat said:
That's not because of the 360, it's because most of these companies are/were in the transition between last gen and this gen. This happens every single generation transition.
New game engines, smaller userbases across the board -- the monies are always tight in a new gen until a few years into it when the userbases swell and devs know where and how to invest their manpower and resources.