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[Freezie KO]

100k pretty decent for Kirby no? Maybe 500k lifetime wordwide.

The game couldnt possibly that much to make.

I have to think it'll be good. Kirby games have long legs and fly under the radar.

 

[Sipowicz]

EA's assumption seems to be that they could sell it to a large Wii audience one month and to a large HD audience the next month, patting themselves on the back that the former don't know about the latter.

Spoiler: But they do.

dont forget to mention that the wii owners are getting a far shitter/lazier version!

although that's par for the course with EA. we're lucky they allowed you to control character movement

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Yup. And those that still want the next-gen consoles to be delayed past 2012 are fooling themselves. Especially the publishers like THQ. It's just silly right now to not want the next generation to start.

So, you're saying what these struggling publishers need is new hardware that is even more expensive to develop for?

That sounds like the worst possible solution to this problem.

 

[Agent X]

Isn't NBA Jam a textbook example of a game that could easily sell many, many times as much as a $15 DD game? Port-levania sold more than in a week on XBLA.

You're right, in terms of volume they could have easily sold many more copies. However, $15 might not have left a lot of wiggle room for profit, especially considering the heavy licensing involved for all of the players and their digitized likenesses.

 

[SlipperySlope]

So, you're saying what these struggling publishers need is new hardware that is even more expensive to develop for?

That sounds like the worst possible solution to this problem.

Who says the next consoles need to be more expensive to develop for? Having the same production values as the last generation didn't hurt the Wii.

What we need new systems for is a refresh. Something new. Software sales will lag until new hardware comes out. People are getting tired of their current systems.

And, no, Move and Kinect won't cut it.

 

[ViperVisor]

Man, Shaun White was on TV pimpin' that game on every channel too.

I wonder how much the game type has been eated up but the shootification of games. 10 years ago a lot of us were doing split screen THPS2 for fun.
The shooters of today are looking more like THPS with the points flying on the screen for doing things.

 

[markatisu]

Well, Nintendo wants it to break 10 million world wide this fiscal year, which is looking pretty hard right now even with an upswing.

Its already past 1m in Japan before the Holiday and fiscal year ends in March doesn't it?

 

[Owzers]

Who says the next consoles need to be more expensive to develop for? Having the same production values as the last generation didn't hurt the Wii.

What we need new systems for is a refresh. Something new. Software sales will lag until new hardware comes out. People are getting tired of their current systems.

And, no, Move and Kinect won't cut it.

I hate the future you want. Xo

 

[SlipperySlope]

I hate the future you want. Xo

I don't want it. It's just what I think is going to happen. Why would I want so many programmers to be laid off, competing for my job?

Edit - Wait, are you talking about next-gen consoles with similar or slightly higher graphics to this generation?

 

[dolemite]

Who says the next consoles need to be more expensive to develop for? Having the same production values as the last generation didn't hurt the Wii.

What we need new systems for is a refresh. Something new. Software sales will lag until new hardware comes out. People are getting tired of their current systems.

And, no, Move and Kinect won't cut it.

Then why are the PS3 and 360 having their best year softwarewise with no peak in sight? The Wii and the DS have peaked already, no doubt, but not the other two.

 

[Mooreberg]

Publishers don't want new hardware and it is easy to understand why. But they are also in a position where the "shiny new object" phase has worn off and you're seeing the sort of hardware sales you could expect for what the prices are and how long they have been on the market.

The only real solution for some of them will be very public griping for price cuts across the board in the spring. That should be interesting since this hardware cycle has been pretty atrocious in terms of actual price cuts. All three hardware makers have been much more likely to just increase what you get at a previously existing price point.

They still don't do themselves any favors in terms of timing releases. 360 software sales are healthy, but that doesn't mean everyone who owns the system is going to buy six full priced games in the month of October. I expect to see similar problems next spring when just about every shooter that was delayed away from Black Ops comes out at nearly the same time. F.E.A.R. 3 and Crysis 2, shooters without huge name recognition at this point, are already coming out on the same day. Wouldn't be surprised if another one is released that day as well.

 

[Kusagari]

Kirby's sales are better than I expected. Kirby games are ALWAYS a slow burn. I guarantee it crosses 500k lifetime in the U.S. and it probably will break a mill here eventually.

 

[NIN90]

Wow at Tony Hawk Shred. :lol

 

[stupei]

I don't see any similarities between the games.

You're right!

One is the sequel to a highly success, GOTY winning game and it managed to sell one million copies in its first month.

The other... well.

Spoiler

Seriously. Never put your somewhat niche title up against a sequel to a game that sold really well. That's just basic common sense.

 

[The Technomancer]

Who says the next consoles need to be more expensive to develop for? Having the same production values as the last generation didn't hurt the Wii.

What we need new systems for is a refresh. Something new. Software sales will lag until new hardware comes out. People are getting tired of their current systems.

And, no, Move and Kinect won't cut it.

That's probably going to fall to Nintendo's next console then. Their adamant philosophy has been "new hardware when we've got a new gameplay concept that needs it" for the last decade or so, so Wii 2 will have to have something interesting.

(The 3DS seems like a timely intersection between the 3D fad and Miyamoto's ideas about how depth perception helps games in 3D space)

 

[Agent X]

There goes Tony hawk and Shaun white's video game futures. I can't imagine a publisher making another game with them, paying for their overpriced names, if they expect to sell 3000-6000 opening month.

It seems like every time a new Tony Hawk game has been announced for the last few years, a few people here pipe in with some comments, begging Activision to produce HD and online-enabled remakes of the early Tony Hawk's Pro Skater games.

You know what? That might not be such a bad idea after all!

They could probably get the developers who worked on God of War Collection or The Sly Collection to rework the PS2/Xbox/GC assets, and spruce them up for today's hardware. Along with full-featured online play, they could add social-oriented competitive stuff (like Autolog from Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit), so you could chase your friends' scores and progression. They need no gimmicks, no waggle, no motion-sensing boards to stand on.

 

[Kittonwy]

Wow at Tony Hawk Shred. :lol

Activision has effectively milked the skateboarding genre to the point of killing the cow.

 

[Lonely1]

Activision has effectively milked the skateboarding genre to the point of killing the cow.

FPS genre is next.

 

[butter_stick]

THPS2 would be popular on XBLA.

Just do that next time you want a few thousand dollars of profit, Activision.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Then why are the PS3 and 360 having their best year softwarewise with no peak in sight? The Wii and the DS have peaked already, no doubt, but not the other two.

The problem is those software sales are getting more and more top-heavy. The increasing spread between the top 15 titles of the year and everything else isn't good for the industry, especially when half of those 15 titles belong to one genre. Why do you think there's been so many closures this year? Even Microsoft is closing down 1st-party studios.

What we're going to end up with is perhaps one-to-two handfuls of developers producing guaranteed-hit high-budget software (which will be more or less strictly sequels), a few producing middle-ground software (this is a vastly shrinking market, this market might move to the 3DS and PSP2), and tons of developers producing "shovelware"/phone apps/whatever else is cheap to make.

Any developer that cannot mold into one of these three categories will be closed.

 

[Freezie KO]

FPS genre is next.

Seriously. I really like Call of Duty, but the writing is on the wall after what Activision did with Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk. Plus, they're going to do a CoD FPS once a year in addition to other titles in other genres (TPS, MMO, etc.).

As a fan, it really is a shame to see it happen. Handled correctly, these franchises could go on like Mario and yield 25 years of great games and reinvented gameplay. Publishers get greedy though.

 

[PSGames]

So guys Wii or 360 on top this holiday?

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

So guys Wii or 360 on top this holiday?

Wii,... or 360.

 

[The Technomancer]

FPS genre is next.

I really wouldn't mind that. Let it get oversaturated for a while, the market dies off. Maybe Valve still makes some excellent titles, maybe another really good game now and then. Then in five or ten years it can make a comeback like the recent 2D platformer resurgence with a bunch of new and interesting ideas.

 

[Totobeni]

Who is Ninja Theory gonna blame now?

their lack of talent?

 

[Owzers]

The problem is those software sales are getting more and more top-heavy. The increasing spread between the top 15 titles of the year and everything else isn't good for the industry, especially when half of those 15 titles belong to one genre. Why do you think there's been so many closures this year? Even Microsoft is closing down 1st-party studios.

What we're going to end up with is perhaps one-to-two handfuls of developers producing guaranteed-hit high-budget software (which will be more or less strictly sequels), a few producing middle-ground software (this is a vastly shrinking market, this market might move to the 3DS and PSP2), and tons of developers producing "shovelware"/phone apps/whatever else is cheap to make.

Any developer that cannot mold into one of these three categories will be closed.

I think that the Slim models of ps3/360 acted as the system refresh that was needed. New hardware that has to build up a new install base isn't going to solve the problems that are going on right now imo.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Seriously. I really like Call of Duty, but the writing is on the wall after what Activision did with Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk. Plus, they're going to do a CoD FPS once a year in addition to other titles in other genres (TPS, MMO, etc.).

As a fan, it really is a shame to see it happen. Handled correctly, these franchises could go on like Mario and yield 25 years of great games and reinvented gameplay. Publishers get greedy though.

The smart publishers space out their releases. CoD will be run into the ground. IMO it's for the better though, enough of that linear stuff. Larger-map FPS's with stealth and multiple entry points like Crysis are so much better.

But yeah, CoD will be run into the ground. The first few I liked, but those were spaced out more. The reason Mario lasted 25 years is because the main-line games are spread out. The 3D ones are several years apart, and the 2D ones had like a 15 (!) year gap between entries at one point. Outside of things like Mario Party, even the spinoffs aren't released yearly.

This don't-release-every-year rule even goes to movies. There's only a couple of movie series that have gotten away with yearly releases and kept up the quality and sales. Lord of the Rings is one. Harry Potter is another. I can not think of any other series. Everything else that has attempted it has run into series fatigue and a decline in quality (I may be missing a series though, but the general rule still applies).

 

[zero_suit]

Handled correctly, these franchises could go on like Mario and yield 25 years of great games and reinvented gameplay. Publishers get greedy though.

Yup, even though profits would be greater doing it the Nintendo way.

 

[verbum]

The problem is those software sales are getting more and more top-heavy. The increasing spread between the top 15 titles of the year and everything else isn't good for the industry, especially when half of those 15 titles belong to one genre. Why do you think there's been so many closures this year? Even Microsoft is closing down 1st-party studios.

What we're going to end up with is perhaps one-to-two handfuls of developers producing guaranteed-hit high-budget software (which will be more or less strictly sequels), a few producing middle-ground software (this is a vastly shrinking market, this market might move to the 3DS and PSP2), and tons of developers producing "shovelware"/phone apps/whatever else is cheap to make.

Any developer that cannot mold into one of these three categories will be closed.

Reminds me of the movie industry in a general way. Started off with a few big studios producing all the movies, then independent films grew in the 1960's and 1970's. But after a while the public wanted a certain formula so they didn't "waste" their time and money watching something they didn't really understand. Along comes the big blockbuster movies with their sequels and now everything that is popular has a sequel and follows certain formulas. Every once in a while a movie comes along that pushes the limits out in new ways but then we get back to the tried and true formulas because of the cost involved for producers and consumers.

 

[SlipperySlope]

I think that the Slim models of ps3/360 acted as the system refresh that was needed. New hardware that has to build up a new install base isn't going to solve the problems that are going on right now imo.

Those helped hardware sales. But software sales... ??? The general trend wasn't affected.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

So guys Wii or 360 on top this holiday?

360. There is a distinct lack of new 'motion' games on the Wii at this time, and Kinect has a lot of money to burn behind it.

So it stands to reason that Kinect will get higher then Wii. But the ashpile will be quite a sight as well, in particular while 3DS starts printing real.. hey, what's this? Miyamoto points?


But I also believe Super Scribblenaughts bombed fucking hard. No store in my vicinity even holds the damn title. Damn you casual peasants.

 

[The Technomancer]

Yup, even though profits would be greater doing it the Nintendo way.

I've said it before, but I really think this is one of the flaws in the shareholder model. Nintendo seems to get away with it because of either a.)Japanese business culture or b.)having a guy like Iwata at the helm (or both)

But when shareholders are demanding that you not just be profitable but be increasing profits every quarter then often times you start scraping the bottom of the barrel for every last cent. Its not about healthy business, its about fast business. How much money can we make now even if it costs us in the long run.

The FPS genre is too big and has too many other studios ready to pick up the slack if CoD starts to falter

We might face genre saturation though. Hell, we already are. Hardcore FPS fans will only buy one or two games a year in enough quantity to be profitable, and everyone else will be tired.

 

[HK-47]

FPS genre is next.

The FPS genre is too big and has too many other studios ready to pick up the slack if CoD starts to falter

 

[SlipperySlope]

Reminds me of the movie industry in a general way. Started off with a few big studios producing all the movies, then independent films grew in the 1960's and 1970's. But after a while the public wanted a certain formula so they didn't "waste" their time and money watching something they didn't really understand. Along comes the big blockbuster movies with their sequels and now everything that is popular has a sequel and follows certain formulas. Every once in a while a movie comes along that pushes the limits out in new ways but then we get back to the tried and true formulas because of the cost involved for producers and consumers.

Exactly. And the biggest casualty, from a consumer standpoint, is innovation. Can't run around doing 40-million dollar experiments. Most future innovative titles will stem from cell phones and perhaps the 3DS and PSP2.

Home consoles will be relegated to the two-handfuls of yearly blockbusters. PC will have a mixture of the two.

The middle-ground projects will be very few.

 

[Owzers]

Those helped hardware sales. But software sales... ??? The general trend wasn't affected.

Ohhhh software sales? Nothing will help those imo. When 360 launched gamers hopped from big new release to big new release. Games like Oblivion, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, Ghost Recon, Army of Two, and basically anything decent sold well because there wasn't a lot of competition. The problem, imo, is that competition. A system refresh isn't going to solve this problem imo. Less games will bomb because there would be less games.

Next year is going to be crazy too. Games that probably could sell 300k+ in a slow month will be crammed in altogether and have to settle for half that.

 

[epmode]

I've said it before, but I really think this is one of the flaws in the shareholder model. Nintendo seems to get away with it because of either a.)Japanese business culture or b.)having a guy like Iwata at the helm (or both)

But when shareholders are demanding that you not just be profitable but be increasing profits every quarter then often times you start scraping the bottom of the barrel for every last cent. Its not about healthy business, its about fast business. How much money can we make now even if it costs us in the long run.


We might face genre saturation though. Hell, we already are. Hardcore FPS fans will only buy one or two games a year in enough quantity to be profitable, and everyone else will be tired.

You're exactly right. This model ruins a lot more than just videogames. If the company doesn't have a CEO who can keep the shareholders in line, everything falls apart.

You can't run a long term business on nothing but short term strategies.

 

[FoneBone]

EA's assumption seems to be that they could sell it to a large Wii audience one month and to a large HD audience the next month, patting themselves on the back that the former don't know about the latter.

Spoiler: But they do.

Don't agree, I think it has far more to do with a lack of advertising. I was very surprised that they didn't bother with TV spots.

 

[HK-47]

It shouldn't. What it tells the industry is, "Buggy shitpiles are A-OK!"

So like every Fallout ever is a shitpile? Are you wearing that avatar ironically?

 

[HK-47]

No, but it sure is annoying, even Bloodlines managed to spice things up with some nice facial animation.

The fact that no RPG since has been able to equal Bloodlines is telling though. Maybe The Witcher 2 will? Maybe Bioware will improve the facial animation in ME3? I hope so.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

The FPS genre is too big and has too many other studios ready to pick up the slack if CoD starts to falter

FP as a viewpoint will never go away - it's just another way of displaying information, and some find it very immersive. Amnesia, Portal, Oblivion, and Mirror's Edge are FP games after all.

As of right now, competitive multiplayer exists in 4 flavors for the masses - FPS, Sports, MMO, and RTS. MMO and RTS aren't on consoles in any significant way, sports and FPS fill that void. Unless a new genre comes along to sate the need to fuck people up over the air (and talk shit while doing it), they will remain in high demand.

Exactly. And the biggest casualty, from a consumer standpoint, is innovation. Can't run around doing 40-million dollar experiments. Most future innovative titles will stem from cell phones and perhaps the 3DS and PSP2.

Home consoles will be relegated to the two-handfuls of yearly blockbusters. PC will have a mixture of the two.

The middle-ground projects will be very few.

Middle-ground projects find plenty of exposure on the DD platforms. They run the gamut from UNO to Battlefield, and there have been plenty of new IP born in just this generation.

 

[HK-47]

But the problem is that there are lots of games where DD is 90% of the sales and lots of games where DD is 10% of the sales (hint: Fallout NV is closer to the former than the latter)

Plus I wouldnt be surprised if many of the retail sales were CEs that wanted the extras. Lots of places sold out of the CE even before launch.

 

[HK-47]

Exactly. And the biggest casualty, from a consumer standpoint, is innovation. Can't run around doing 40-million dollar experiments. Most future innovative titles will stem from cell phones and perhaps the 3DS and PSP2.

Home consoles will be relegated to the two-handfuls of yearly blockbusters. PC will have a mixture of the two.

The middle-ground projects will be very few.

They are on PC right now. Tons of indies.

 

[Curufinwe]

Activision has effectively milked the skateboarding genre to the point of killing the cow.

I only got my EDGE with Bloodstone on the cover yesterday, and I just read the interview with Kotick where he talks about how they nailed it with Shred. Maybe he meant nailed to the cross.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

So guys Wii or 360 on top this holiday?

Wii. Nintendo always gets a stronger holiday boost than their competitors do, and Donkey Kong is going to sell systems.

 

[Curufinwe]

It pains me to say this because Warren Spector always seems like such a nice guy in interviews, but I think Epic Mickey is really going to struggle.

 

[Plinko]

Wii. Nintendo always gets a stronger holiday boost than their competitors do, and Donkey Kong is going to sell systems.

I disagree completely.

 

[Psychotext]

360... because of Kinect.

Spoiler

I am amused in advance at the anguish this will cause a significant proportion of GAF.

 

[The Technomancer]

I honestly don't think DKCR will sell that well. And it makes me sad.

 

[Curufinwe]

360... because of Kinect.

I am amused in advance at the anguish this will cause a significant proportion of GAF.

I'm assumed at anyone who feels emotions as extreme as anguish because of videogame sales numbers, unless their livelihood is tied to those numbers.

[EDIT] Removed annoying spoiler tags from a non-spoiler.

 

[Gram Negative Cocci]

EA's assumption seems to be that they could sell it to a large Wii audience one month and to a large HD audience the next month, patting themselves on the back that the former don't know about the latter.

Spoiler: But they do.

I just want to say I appreciate that you didn't spoiler tag a non-spoiler. Its getting so common and annoying.