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Official January NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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B

bud

Member
ilbambino said:
I'm willing to bet my account on PS3 outselling 360.
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Jean_Claude_Van_Damme_001.jpg
 
P

pswii60

Member
ilbambino said:
I'm willing to bet my account on PS3 outselling 360.
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Well it SHOULD, considering it's brand new and the huge Sony fanbase. But supply hasn't been consistent. While there are reports of some stores having MOUNTAINS of PS3s, places like Amazon have been constantly in and out of stock, and certain parts of the US have had trouble getting hold of them.

So, the inconsistent supply + price of PS3 could pose a problem. Also Lost Planet + Crackdown demo may have sold a few extra 360s. Who knows, eh?! Not Patcher, that's for sure.
 
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HyperionX

Member
Why are people predicting great Wii sales when supply has been garbage? Don't be surprised if it sells only as well as PS3/X360 and there's a significant chance of being outsold by both.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
HyperionX said:
Why are people predicting great Wii sales when supply has been garbage? Don't be surprised if it sells only as well as PS3/X360 and there's a significant chance of being outsold by both.
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How do you know the supply has been garbage? That's right you don't. By all signs demand is as high in the US as it is in Japan, and Nintendo sold 525k Wiis in Japan during January despite the system being chronically sold out.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
HyperionX said:
Why are people predicting great Wii sales when supply has been garbage? Don't be surprised if it sells only as well as PS3/X360 and there's a significant chance of being outsold by both.
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Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

And wow at the account bet above. Probably safe, but not a guarantee by any stretch. 0_0
 
T

tHa_vIlLaMaN

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

And wow at the account bet above. Probably safe, but not a guarantee by any stretch. 0_0
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That's what makes it all-the-more exciting! :D
 
H

HyperionX

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

And wow at the account bet above. Probably safe, but not a guarantee by any stretch. 0_0
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There was exactly one confirmed shipment in all of January. Probably others existed, but these were middle-of-the-night small shipments. The PS3 is probably the only console that saw weekly shipments like you claim.
 
B

bud

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.
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Sony said the same thing plus that they were selling 100k a week

...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
HyperionX said:
There was exactly one confirmed shipment in all of January. Probably others existed, but these were middle-of-the-night small shipments. The PS3 is probably the only console that saw weekly shipments like you claim.
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Well, it's all anecdotal at this point. I didn't trust Nintendo's shipment claim - I think they shipped well below their stated target and that's reflected in my prediction.

I put absolutely no stock (no pun intended) on GAF's anecdotal evidence, other than the fact that Wii is damn near impossible to find and the PS3 is pretty much everywhere. The numbers are going to be really interesting to see this month. I'm actually more interested in this month than December, since in that month we knew roughly what they were constrained to.

Will the 360 fall off a cliff? Did Nintendo come even close to their shipment claims? Sony has said they're doing ~100k per month, did they sell anywhere close to that? I honestly have no clue about any of it. This month could be a good indications to the first half of the year.
 
D

dyls

Member
HyperionX said:
There was exactly one confirmed shipment in all of January. Probably others existed, but these were middle-of-the-night small shipments. The PS3 is probably the only console that saw weekly shipments like you claim.
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Two that we know of. One covered BB, Target, EB/GS, CC, and TRU that went on sale on 1/14. The other for Walmart that went on sale 1/21.

The truth is, it's impossible to even guess the number. On one hand, the supply seemed to be next to nothing during most of January. On the other hand, supply seemed to be almost nothing for most of December as well, and 600,000+ Wii's were sold that month.
 
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HyperionX

Member
dyls said:
Two that we know of. One covered BB, Target, EB/GS, CC, and TRU that went on sale on 1/14. The other for Walmart that went on sale 1/21.

The truth is, it's impossible to even guess the number. On one hand, the supply seemed to be next to nothing during most of January. On the other hand, supply seemed to be almost nothing for most of December as well, and 600,000+ Wii's were sold that month.
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That still sounds like 1 shipment, but across two weeks. Many of these stores wait until they have sufficient supplies before they let them be sold.

And December sales are different. Every time there was reports of Wiis in stock meant camping out for them due to the Christmas shopping frenzy. It would be truly remarkable if that can continue in January.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Agenda is an insult now? Well if it's not an agenda and you really believe those predictions then I guess you're just really bad at predicting.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
The AnswerV said:
So, when it comes out? around 5PM ET?
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The data is released when the market closes, at 4:30PM ET. NPD releases their public data about an hour later, going by the past couple of months.
 
H

HyperionX

Member
Jokeropia said:
Agenda is an insult now? Well if it's not an agenda and you really believe those predictions then I guess you're just really bad at predicting.
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1) You don't know what ad hominem means.

2) I didn't know it was 2012 already.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
For the record, I have no idea how many units Nintendo shipped, but you cannot derive that there were no shipments based on the difficulty of finding one since it's the same deal in Japan where 525k Wiis were sold in January.
 
H

HyperionX

Member
Jokeropia said:
For the record, I have no idea how many units Nintendo shipped, but you cannot derive that there were no shipments based on the difficulty of finding one since it's the same deal in Japan where 525k Wiis were sold in January.
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I based it off of reports of shipments, which were very rare. Japan actually got weekly shipments.
 
D

dyls

Member
At this point, I'm expecting pretty meh numbers this month. Almost everything will probably fall in the 250K-350K range, disappointing everyone for 4 pages, followed by a bunch of "February and March will be the real telling months."

I'm hoping for fireworks, but expecting sparklers.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
HyperionX said:
1) You don't know what ad hominem means.
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Yes I do. If the post I brought up had been irrelevant to this discussion it qualifies as ad-hominem. However, whether it's a sign of bias against Nintendo or just really bad predicting I argue that it's very relevant.
HyperionX said:
2) I didn't know it was 2012 already.
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So you honestly believe that not only will PS3 have an unprecedented comeback in Japan, but the X360 will have a comeback that makes the beforementioned seem petty? And this will make the Wii bomb so hard that it actually fails to generate a profit for Nintendo. (How that is even theoretically possible I have no idea.)

Yeah I think my agenda comment was quite warranted.
 
H

HyperionX

Member
Jokeropia said:
Yes I do. If the post I brought up had been irrelevant to this discussion it qualifies as ad-hominem. However, whether it's a sign of bias against Nintendo or just really bad predicting I argue that it's very relevant.
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Get a dictionary. You really don't know what "ad hominem" actually stands for.

So you honestly believe that not only will PS3 have an unprecedented comeback in Japan, but the X360 will have a comeback that makes the beforementioned seem petty? And this will make the Wii bomb so hard that it actually fails to generate a profit for Nintendo. (How that is even theoretically possible I have no idea.)

Yeah I think my agenda comment was quite warranted.
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So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.

EDIT: When I say something has been canceled, it automatically defaults to last. Wouldn't be surprised if lifetime shipments of Wii in Japan exceed X360 though.
 
I

ilbambino

Member
pswii60 said:
Well it SHOULD, considering it's brand new and the huge Sony fanbase. But supply hasn't been consistent. While there are reports of some stores having MOUNTAINS of PS3s, places like Amazon have been constantly in and out of stock, and certain parts of the US have had trouble getting hold of them.

So, the inconsistent supply + price of PS3 could pose a problem. Also Lost Planet + Crackdown demo may have sold a few extra 360s. Who knows, eh?! Not Patcher, that's for sure.
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Sony shipped 1M PS3s by year's end , So doing some calculations using NPD numbers for the months of November and December it leaves around 300K unsold PS3s. They also claimed to be shipping 100K PS3s a week to America , so that should increase the count to 800K units that could have been potentially bought. Also a lot of PS3s were available for purchase on Dec 31 , a day after NPD's last day taken into consideration for December numbers.

The best January for the Xbox Brand was 249K , made last year by the 360 , followed closely by the original Xbox 05 January with 242K. So assuming the console has a performance similar to those with no Halo , higher pricepoint and no "Just launched" boost it would get around 300K units (Taking into consideration the 5-weeks).

Those are my 2 cents , If that doesn't happens i would say the PS3 is as doomed as my GAF account :D

Edit: Sorry about my English
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
HyperionX said:
Get a dictionary. You really don't know what "ad hominem" actually stands for.
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Yes I do. It's an unwarranted discreditation of the person instead of the argument. Like I said above however, I'd argue that the discreditation was warranted.
HyperionX said:
So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.
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Sorry, but no they're not. That's like me saying I predict 2,000,000 Wiis for January NPD and saying it's as credible as anyone else's. Or 250 million Wiis sold lifetime total. Your above prediction for this month's NPD (Wii may sell equal to or less than PS3/X360) might be as credible as anyone else's, but suggesting that Wii is likely to bomb and lose to X360 in Japan is a pipe dream.

Out of curiosity, do you also believe PSP is bound to make a comeback against the DS?
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
HyperionX said:
So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.
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Get a dictionary. You really don't know what "credible" actually stands for.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Forgotten Ancient said:
I'm pretty sure there'll be a new thread. Doesn't SonyCowboy usually post them?
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I think that's the process going forward. NPD includes sonycowboy (or someone from GAF administration) on the media alert, and he posts the official thread. It was outlined when the new NPD rules were decided a couple months back.
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
I'll take a go at it:


NDS 360K
WII 330K
360 320K
PSP 280K
PS2 275K
PS3 250K
GBA 240K
GCN 25K
XBX 10K
 
D

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
sonycowboy said:
Bunk,

I'm hearing potentially no NPD until Tuesday. You heard anything?
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How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.
 
M

methane47

Member
duderon said:
How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.
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They have to gather information from Mom and Pops stores which takes longer than normal
 
A

AlphaSnake

...and that, kids, was the first time I sucked a dick for crack
I'll know that the numbers get posted when in the span of 4 minutes this thread goes from 4 pages, to 37.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
duderon said:
How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.
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There WAS another company - PC Data. NPD purchased them to eliminate the competition. For a while, PC Data was releasing weekly sales charts (sans numbers), and NPD started doing the same. Then NPD bought PC Data out, and *poof* the weekly charts disappeared. (I used to write for a gaming site when we got the charts.)
 
G

Ghengis Cohen

Banned
duderon said:
How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.
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NPD tracks much, much, much more than video game sales.
 
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