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Official July 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

R

RBH

Member
sonycowboy said:
:lol

It never ends. I just got word NPD Canada will release tomorrow. I think we need a deadline back again of say midnight tonight.
Click to expand...

Yay, at least there's something to look forward to tomorrow.

Even if it is Canada....
j/k :p
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
sonycowboy said:
:lol

It never ends. I just got word NPD Canada will release tomorrow. I think we need a deadline back again of say midnight tonight.
Click to expand...


Were you ever able to say why N.A NPD is going to be delayed or did I miss it?
 
D

donny2112

Member
sonycowboy said:
I'll see what I can do.
Click to expand...

Thanks! :)

sonycowboy said:
Geez. This is actually a pretty huge deal, IMO. They've pretty much completely covered the online area where they were relatively lacking before. And from what I've seen about online rankings, they have substantially different purchasing patterns than brick and mortar stores.
Click to expand...

I agree that it's a big deal. It's just somewhat difficult to get too excited considering the whole "restricted" nature of the data. I'm happy for those with full access to the data, if that helps any. :p

With the Canadian data coming out tomorrow, the deadline can be extended to midnight. Get crackin' Fuzzy. ;)
 
M

Meier

Member
I'm not sure if he's posted elsewhere, but CBOAT made a random appearance in the NBA thread the other day. Quite encouraging!
 
D

donny2112

Member
Predictions closed at Cheesemeister's post above.

Cheesemeister,
Can you post the aggregate totals for NeoGAF, when you get a chance? No rush, though. Thanks! :)
 
D

dyls

Member
I'm calling in right now that the addition of these new online retailers will help the 360 and PS3 and hurt the Wii's numbers. With the exception of Amazon, these are the kind of retailers that will skew more towards the hardcore, first simply because they are online and not B & M, second because of the nature of the retailers listed, and finally because a lot of these retailers probably have gotten very few Wiis to sell anyway, .

It probably won't be a huge change, but if they get historical data from these sites and then recenter their numbers to accommodate, expect higher numbers for PS3 and 360, and slightly lower for Wii, (although Amazon may go a ways in canceling that out). The question is, will this recentering be part of this months numbers?
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
There were a couple of folks whose input put them off by a few decimal points, and they are excluded in these numbers. I'll debug later when I have time.

Parser said:
Number of contestants: 216

PS2 - Agg. = 207,747; Expected Range = 170,000 to 220,000
PSP - Agg. = 225,249; Expected Range = 160,500 to 260,000
PS3 - Agg. = 162,355; Expected Range = 95,000 to 210,000
XBX - Agg. = 915
360 - Agg. = 165,513; Expected Range = 135,000 to 200,000
GBA - Agg. = 85,661; Expected Range = 80,000 to 98,000
NGC - Agg. = 9,905; Expected Range = 5,000 to 70,000
NDS - Agg. = 461,203; Expected Range = 350,000 to 520,000
WII - Agg. = 336,762; Expected Range = 276,000 to 450,000
Click to expand...
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Evn though they won't be counted, I want to make some predictions:

360 150k
PS3 145k
DS 440k
Wii 290k
PS2 185k
PSP 175k
GBA 65k
 
M

Markster

Member
The "Expected Range", is that something like the average +- 1 standard deviation?

And did only one person give a prediction for the XBX? :lol
 
K

KINGMOKU

Member
Thats a good question. I thought the Canadian numbers happened today?


Good grief. No Japanese numbers, no NPD, not even Canadian.


Lousy European numbers....
 
P

Parl

Member
Parser said:
PS2 - Agg. = 207,747; Expected Range = 170,000 to 220,000
PSP - Agg. = 225,249; Expected Range = 160,500 to 260,000
PS3 - Agg. = 162,355; Expected Range = 95,000 to 210,000
XBX - Agg. = 915
360 - Agg. = 165,513; Expected Range = 135,000 to 200,000
GBA - Agg. = 85,661; Expected Range = 80,000 to 98,000
NGC - Agg. = 9,905; Expected Range = 5,000 to 70,000
NDS - Agg. = 461,203; Expected Range = 350,000 to 520,000
WII - Agg. = 336,762; Expected Range = 276,000 to 450,000
Click to expand...

GAF-average predicts total hardware of 1,655,310 units for July. That's 86.5% of June's numbers. This is way too high, IMO.

2003 June --> July was 76.64%
2004 June --> July was 75.37%
2005 June --> July was 74.94%
2006 June --> July was 75.25%

As you can see, the last 4 years have been fairly consistent, at about 75-76%. If we were to take the highest, as PS3 has dropped price (but of course, that would take sales away from other systems), then the GAF-average is overestimating the numbers by 13%.

I believe this ratio will remain fairly consistent with previous years, but it's only prediction so... we'll have to wait.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Pachter's prediction

Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:

Wii 330,000
PS3 160,000
Xbox 360 115,000
PS2 205,000
PSP 225,000
DS 450,000
GBA 85,000
 
D

doicare

Member
sonycowboy said:
Pachter's prediction

Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:

Wii 330,000
PS3 160,000
Xbox 360 115,000
PS2 205,000
PSP 225,000
DS 450,000
GBA 85,000
Click to expand...

:lol When you look at it, it looks like pachter just copied gaf's average predictions for the month except for the 360.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
doicare said:
:lol When you look at it, it looks like pachter just copied gaf's average predictions for the month except for the 360.
Click to expand...

Holy shit, you're right.

EDIT: Damn yous sonycowboy. Damn yous to hell.
 
S

senahorse

Member
doicare said:
:lol When you look at it, it looks like pachter just copied gaf's average predictions for the month except for the 360.
Click to expand...

Oh Pachter, gotta get myself one of those guessing jobs :lol
 
B

Brak

Member
doicare said:
:lol When you look at it, it looks like pachter just copied gaf's average predictions for the month except for the 360.
Click to expand...
His 360 and PS3 predictions are verrrrrrry ballsy though.
 
S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Brak said:
His 360 and PS3 predictions are verrrrrrry ballsy though.
Click to expand...


Not so ballsy when he has Canadian hardware numbers right in front of him...
 
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