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Official October NPD prediction Thread - (360, DS, PS2 HW, Bully, Marvel: UA, SC:DA)

S

sonycowboy

Member
Well,

It's October. The holiday season is quickly approaching. An increasing number of releases, the continuing saga of 360 & DS HW, Marvel: UA, Bully, the PS2 holding onto the $129 price point, and more..

In truth, it's probably the weakest October in a loooong time.

The Wedbush estimates are here:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=127228

NPD will be released this Thursday, Nov 9th after market close.

NPD CONTEST

Platforms covered: 360, PS2, NDS, PSP, GBA, GCN, Xbox

Required Predictions
You must make the following predictions to qualify

1) Hardware (within 10k) each system
2) Top 10 overall w/units (must pick per sku, not combining multi-platform)
3) Titles over 100k

THIS MONTHS CONSIDERATIONS
1) 360 HW, NDS HW, & PS2 HW
2) New SW: Bully, Scarface, Splinter Cell, Mortal Kombat
3) Continued SW: Lego Star Wars, Pokemon Dungeon, Madden, Saints Row


Some notable New Releases:

Week 1: NHL 2k7, FIFA 07, Gangs of London

Week 2: Scarface, Mortal Kombat, Spyro, God Hand, Shim Megami, Tales of the Abyss, Tiger Woods, Crash Bang (DS), GUN (PSP)

Week 3: Bully, Destroy All Humans 2, Justice League Heroes, Sims 2 Pets, Splinter Cell: DA (360), Nintendogs: Dalmations (DS), Contact (DS)

Week 4: Marvel: Ultimate Alliance, DMC Trilogy, Splinter Cell:DA (all but 360), Phantasy Star Universe, Resevoir Dogs, Resident Evil 10th Anniversary (GCN), Magical Starsign (DS), Tony Hill Downhill Jam (DS), Touch Detective (DS),WTF (PSP), Ace Combat (PSP), Capcom Classics (PSP), Dynasty Warriors 2 (PSP), ATV: OF 2 (PSP)

Top 40 Sept NPD
Platform Title Sept 2006 Sales
PS2 MADDEN NFL 07 506,254
360 SAINTS ROW 455,342
PS2 LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY 349,616
NDS POKEMON MYSTERY DUNGEON: BLUE RESCUE TEA 285,311
GBA POKEMON MYSTERY DUNGEON: RED RESCUE TEAM 219,923
360 MADDEN NFL 07 218,679
GCN LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY 170,019
XBX MADDEN NFL 07 166,192
NDS STAR FOX COMMAND 137,620
NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS 134,954
PS2 NBA LIVE 07 125,637
360 LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY 113,366
XBX LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY 109,510
PS2 MADDEN NFL 07: HALL OF FAME 106,767
PS2 FINAL FANTASY VII: DIRGE OF CERBERUS 101,054
360 TEST DRIVE UNLIMITED 96,804
360 DEAD RISING 89,472
NDS MARIO HOOPS 3 ON 3 89,072
PS2 OKAMI 86,676
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO: LIBERTY CITY STORIES 81,916
PSP MADDEN NFL 07 81,888
360 NBA 2K7 81,417
PS2 GUITAR HERO BUNDLE 81,274
PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 07 80,152
360 ENCHANTED ARMS 79,971
360 NBA LIVE 07 77,203
PS2 XENOSAGA EPISODE III 73,081
PS2 LEGO STAR WARS 72,352
PS2 DISGAEA 2: CURSED MEMORIES 70,572
PS2 STAR WARS: BATTLEFRONT II 68,272
PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO: SAN ANDREAS 65,429
360 THE GODFATHER: THE GAME 64,089
PS2 NHL 07 61,873
NDS LEGO STAR WARS II: THE ORIGINAL TRILOGY 58,540
GCN MADDEN NFL 07 58,175
NDS BIG BRAIN ACADEMY 57,383
GCN LEGO STAR WARS 56,303
NDS BRAIN AGE: TRAIN YOUR BRAIN IN MINUTES A 56,012
PS2 GOD OF WAR 55,914
 
T

threeball

Banned
Sales of DS and PS2 will be weak due to the upcoming holiday.

360 will be a bit higher due to people buying well before the holiday rush.
 
D

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
threeball said:
Sales of DS and PS2 will be weak due to the upcoming holiday.

360 will be a bit higher due to people buying well before the holiday rush.
Click to expand...

I'm having trouble seeing the logic of your first sentence.
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
Not planning to qualify for the whole thing, so here's my hardware:

DS: 350K
PS2: 290K
360: 240K
GBA: 140K
PSP: 130K
GCN: 45K
XBX: 7K
 
T

Tadaima

Member
cvxfreak said:
Not planning to qualify for the whole thing, so here's my hardware:

DS: 350K
PS2: 290K
360: 240K
GBA: 140K
PSP: 130K
GCN: 45K
XBX: 7K
Click to expand...

Nice guesses, but I think the DS will be a little lower; last month it had Pokemon AND a new colour, but Pokemon may hold out for good sales this month, too. nintendogs might be enough to sustain the high figure, but we'll see.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
DS: 300k
PSP: 200k
360: 250k
PS2: 290k
GBA: 160k
GC: 40k
XBox: 15k

I really have no clue on the software end of things.
 
C

Chibbi Brady

Member
NDS - 300k
PS2 - 245k
360 - 200k
GBA - 155k
PSP - 130k
GCN - 38k
Xbox - 5k

Just looking at the software released last month and the new stuff this, it seems like there could be an awful lot of titles that sell over 100k.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
For reference....

September Hardware


Nintendo DS 403,435
PlayStation 2 306,517
Xbox 360 259,458
Game Boy Advance 177,145
PlayStation Portable 153,353
GameCube 42,286
Xbox 6,495


And last years October

PS2 = 252,000
GBA = 208,000 (approx)
DS = 136,000 (approx)
PSP = 1xx,000
Xbox = 110,000
GCN = 102,000





Ill save my prediction for tommorow night, once my prediction programs have run*




*random number generator FTW
 
B

Borys

Banned
Xbox 360 - lower than expected
PS2 - higher than expected
GCN - higher than Xbox
Xbox - abysmall
DS - higher than PS2
PSP - higher than expected
 
J

JavyOO7

Member
NDS: 350K
360: 220K
PS2: 250K
GCN: 40K
PSP: 120K
GBA: 180K
X Original: 10K

Top 10
1) Madden PS2: 300K
2) Splinter Cell PS2: 280K
3) Bully: 275K
4) Saint's Row: 250K
5) Pokemon Mystery Dungeon DS: 200K
6) Lego Stars PS2: 180K
7) Madden X360: 150k
8) Pokemon Mysery Dungeon GBA: 140K
9) New Super Mario Bros: 130K
10) Nintendogs Dalmations: 100k

Titles > 100k
All version of Nintendogs (besides Dalmation)
Madden Xbox
NCAA (all platforms)
Scarface
Mortal Kombat (all platforms)
NHL 2K series (all platforms)
Marvel: UA (all platforms)
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
DS: 350K
PS2: 280K
360: 250K
GBA: 125K
PSP: 140K
GCN: 50K
XBX: 7K


the big ones i'll predict:
Madden 07 (PS2) - 250k
Bully - 300k
 
S

stolin

Member
Nintendo DS 390,000
PlayStation 2 275,000
Xbox 360 220,000
Game Boy Advance 170,000
PlayStation Portable 160,000
GameCube 35,000
Xbox 4,000
 
K

Kurosaki Ichigo

Member
Predictions
NDS - 320k
PS2 - 250k
360 - 195k
GBA - 140k
PSP - 130k
GCN - 35k
XBX - 5k

Tales of the Abyss - 10k
SMT Devil Summoner - 20k
God Hand - 40k
 
J

jimbo

Banned
Nintendo DS 375k
PlayStation 2 315k
Xbox 360 280k
Game Boy Advance 185k
PlayStation Portable 163k
GameCube 35k
Xbox 9k
 
F

Fady K

Member
Woooooh! I thought Xenosaga III sold 50,000 - im happier with 73,000 :)

As for hardware...ive never done this before, but here goes:

DS Lite: 270 K
X360 220 K
PS2 190 K
PSP 170 K
GBA SP/M 85K
Xbox 23K

So random.

I hope the PSP gains some momentum this time!
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
DS - 362k
PS2 - 276k
X360 - 243k
GBA - 156k
PSP - 143k
GC - 35k
XBX - 8k
 
D

dyls

Member
DS:340K
PS2:270K
360:220K
GBA:140K
PSP:130K
GC:30K
XB:10K

No one is putting software in, so I guess I won't either
 
U

underfooter

Banned
It is really quite remarkable how the PS2 is still outselling the 360. I see that happening again in October. As well, the PSP will probably see a spike in sales with all of the great software flow it's had.
 
T

trancejeremy

Banned
underfooter said:
It is really quite remarkable how the PS2 is still outselling the 360. I see that happening again in October. As well, the PSP will probably see a spike in sales with all of the great software flow it's had.
Click to expand...

While I hope that's the case, I'm guessing that in actuality, the top 3 PSP titles are outsold by Nintendogs: Dalamations
 
S

Striek

Member
DS: 370k (no idea really)
PS2: 290k
X360: 260k
GBA: 200k
PSP: 135k (its following its 2005 performance very closely)
GC: 50k
Xbox: 7k

Bully > Marvel > SC in sales. (I'm allowed to hope)
 
T

thestopsign

Member
DS = 336,000
PS2 = 258,000
Xbox 360 = 247,000
PSP = 175,000
GBA = 170,000
GCN = 40,000
Xbox = 7,000

Bully = 320,000
Splinter Cell 360 = 180,000
New Super Mario Bros = 110,000
Tales of the Abyss = 45,000
Rocket Slime = 15,000
Contact = 12,000
 
D

donny2112

Member
HW Predictions

NDS - 340K
PS2 - 264K
360 - 208K
GBA - 180K
PSP - 136K
GCN - 40K
XBX - 7K

SW Predictions

1. PS2 Madden NFL 07 400K
2. 360 Madden NFL 07 150K
3. 360 Saint's Row 125K
4. PS2 LEGO Star Wars II 120K
5. NDS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Blue 115K
6. PS2 Bully 110K
7. GBA Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Red 106K
8. PS2 NBA Live 07 105K
9. PS2 FIFA 07 102K
10. GCN LEGO Star Wars II 95K

XBX Madden NFL 07 91K
NDS New Super Mario Bros. 90K
NDS Clubhouse Games 85K
NDS Nintendogs: Dalmations 80K
 
Dr. Kitty Muffins

Dr. Kitty Muffins

Member
Walmart has that Burnout bundle that surely will not be factored in as:

1. It came out during the last few days of OCT.

2. I don't think the numbers include Walmart anyways.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
Walmart has that Burnout bundle that surely will not be factored in as:

1. It came out during the last few days of OCT.

2. I don't think the numbers include Walmart anyways.
Click to expand...

3. NPD doesn't include bundled software with the regular software sales for a game.
 
Dr. Kitty Muffins

Dr. Kitty Muffins

Member
donny2112 said:
3. NPD doesn't include bundled software with the regular software sales for a game.
Click to expand...

True as well. Although I was only thinking about the hardware sales with that comment.

I guess Burnout will get into alot of homes this way. And EB/Gamestop will have plenty of used copies come January.......lol Every bundled game makes it way there in droves no matter how good/bad it is. :lol

I got the JSRF/Sega Gt disc for 5 bucks shortly after its release.

JSRF was worth well worth it and more.
 
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