• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF Interim Thread of Tears/Lapel Pins (ScratchingHisCheek-Gate)

Status
Not open for further replies.

Rur0ni

Member
currentdelegatecount.png


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where We Stand

Obama failed to deliver a knockout blow in Texas or Ohio, giving Clinton the opportunity to ride this thing out to the end.

Future Contests

statesleft.png


What Now?

6 weeks of boredom. In the mean time, we do get polling data for Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. As well as national polling. None of the upcoming contests will be open primaries. Only registered Democrats. Of the remaining states:

Obama Leaning:
North Carolina
Oregon
Montana
South Dakota

Clinton Leaning:
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Kentucky

Toss Up:
Indiana

Strategy

Currently, Obama leads in delegate count and popular vote, even when including Michigan and Florida.

popularvotetotal.png



Polling Data

To be added.
 
I really don't think there's any way she can win the popular. However as the democratic party continually reminds us, they don't really care about popular votes.
 

Rur0ni

Member
To quote Slurpy from the last thread:

Slurpy said:
So why the fuck can't some super delegates start endorsing Obama, to negate the lead Hillary has with them?
He's been getting them at a high rate. The count varies. It's less than 40 super lead right now. I'd imagine some were hoping for an Obama Texas win (that night), to start to shut this thing down.

Edit:

grandjedi6 said:
The chart you took from Wikipedia is confusing and has mistakes
Feel free to give me accurate data. ;)
 

GhaleonEB

Member
harSon said:
Obama tends to close margins when behind once he gets his ground game moving. What do you think is going to happen when he has a decisive lead before campaigning there?
I agree. I wasn't saying which way the margin could go, just saying the undecided margin was large. Nothing more. I still think we need at least one more poll to get a feel for the leanings of that state.

No change in today's dem Gallup (both up one point).

election2008_HP_DemRace.gif
 

gkryhewy

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I agree. I wasn't saying which way the margin could go, just saying the undecided margin was large. Nothing more. I still think we need at least one more poll to get a feel for the leanings of that state.

No change in today's dem Gallup (both up one point).

election2008_HP_DemRace.gif

Gallup's gone to a dark background! Racists.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Saint10118 said:
If anything Obama is most at fault having run nation wide advertisements on MSNBC during the Florida vote.
True, that ad did run. To his credit he tried to have it taken off the air in Florida, but it was all or nothing. It also ran in states which had already voted, as well.
 
GhaleonEB said:
True, that ad did run. To his credit he tried to have it taken off the air in Florida, but it was all or nothing. It also ran in states which had already voted, as well.


I wasn't trying to be confrontational on the issue just fair
 

gkryhewy

Member
GhaleonEB said:
On their main page. The detail page has the version for white America.

Why do they lighten the green of his line on the white chart, and darken it on the charcoal one?

Pandering bullshit is what it is.
 

Tamanon

Banned
BTW, shockingly it looks like the Florida re-vote isn't going through yet.

I don't know why I would think that would happen with Crist being the one driving the conversation and keeping it in the news;)
 

syllogism

Member
http://thepage.time.com/details-of-a-possible-delegate-plan-under-discussion/

Details of a possible delegate plan under discussion:

–Michigan’s delegates would be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.

–Florida’s existing delegates would be seated at the Denver convention—but with half a vote each. That would give Clinton a net gain of about 19 elected delegates.

– The two states’ superdelegates would then be able to vote in Denver, likely netting Clinton a few more delegates.

The betting: Florida and Michigan delegates, the DNC, and the Clinton campaign would all — some reluctantly– accept this deal.

Then it would be over to you, Barack Obama.
I'd say Clinton camp would be more reluctant to accept this but we'll see
 

Tamanon

Banned
Obama would accept that in a heartbeat I'm thinking. He's said constantly that he'll go with what the DNC decides, and if they endorse it, it only cuts her pledged delegate deficit down to ~145. Plus it handily eliminates 2 of her talking points and chances to greatly catch up.
 
syllogism said:
http://thepage.time.com/details-of-a-possible-delegate-plan-under-discussion/


I'd say Clinton campaign would be more reluctant to accept this but we'll see

Hillary probably would not agree to this. If they gave her the full delegate count in Florida but did 50/50 in Michigan, she might....might agree to it. She's less about pushing for a new primary as she is about getting the delegate count in Florida from the non-primaries to count as they are. If they re-do the primaries in Florida and Michigan, she may win but it's unlikely that she'd get the blowout lead that she got the last time. She would probably get a 5-7% lead in Florida and maybe similar in Michigan. That wouldn't help her delegate numbers or popular vote numbers much either.

I don't see Obama accepting this deal either (even though the Michigan part is favorable for him). We'll see though. It would save everyone a lot of money.

Edit. Scratch that. Obama might take it if his popular vote number didn't take too much of a hit.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Tamanon said:
Obama would accept that in a heartbeat I'm thinking. He's said constantly that he'll go with what the DNC decides, and if they endorse it, it only cuts her pledged delegate deficit down to ~145. Plus it handily eliminates 2 of her talking points and chances to greatly catch up.
Yup. Closing the gap ~25 delegates from those two states won't be nearly enough for Clinton.

I'd still rather see a re-vote in both, but I think that's getting unlikely.
 

maynerd

Banned
Clinton strategist says Obama 'can't win the general election'

Though the campaign later argued that he hadn't said it, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's chief campaign strategist told reporters this morning that Sen. Barack Obama "can't win the general election."

Mark Penn made the comment during a conference call in which the Clinton campaign and two of her supporters -- Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter -- argued that Obama has sent Pennsylvanians a bad signal by allegedly downplaying the importance of that state's April 22 primary. They made the case that this memo from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe (which Nutter said the author should be fired for writing), would come back to haunt Obama in the fall if he is the Democratic nominee.

Here is what Penn said. We're posting a little more than 2 minutes of his opening statement because we want to make sure you get the full context. It's in the last 20 seconds or so that he says Obama "really can't win the general election." As you'll hear, he also says that "if Barack Obama can't win" in Pennsylvania, "how could he win the general election?"

Later, a reporter asks what he meant. Clinton campaign communications chief Howard Wolfson jumps in to say that "Mark did not say that."

Then Penn says that if Obama doesn't win the Pennsylvania primary, it "raises serious questions" about whether he can win the general election. Here's how that exchange went:

Update at 2:10 p.m. ET: Last evening, the Obama campaign released a partly tongue-in-cheek reaction to the Clinton campaign's arguments on electability and Pennsylvania's importance.

The response from Obama's team
 

gkryhewy

Member
schuelma said:
Yeah..that wouldn't net her many delegates, certainly not enough to make a difference.

Also, how would the popular vote's come into play with this?

My guess is they wouldn't count, which would permit the clinton camp to keep referencing the old totals.
 

maynerd

Banned
Cnn has some different information on FL recount

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/13/primary.proposal/index.html

Florida Democrats want a do-over, and state party officials have a proposal for recouping the 210 delegates that the Sunshine State lost when it moved its primary ahead of the approved time frame.

State Democratic officials knew voters' ballots wouldn't count when they were cast January 29.

The party is proposing a combination mail-in and in-person election to be held June 3. Fundraising and public comment would begin immediately.

"The plan would be inclusive of all Democratic voters," according to a memo accompanying the draft plan that was sent Wednesday night to party leaders, including Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the party's candidates for the presidential nomination.

Any plan would need the blessings of the DNC and the Clinton and Obama campaigns.

"We really believe that all Floridians deserve to be heard," said state party Chairwoman Karen Thurman, but "if this is not what the people of Florida and our presidential candidates want, then we're not going to do it."

The proposal could prove problematic because Florida law bans the state from conducting elections by mail.

State party officials could outsource the election operations to a third party, but the company would need voters' signatures to verify the voter rolls. In Florida, it is illegal to sell voters' signatures.

Dean said Thursday he had not yet seen the proposal, but acknowledged that it isn't perfect.

"Of course there are going to be problems," he said, explaining that is why state party officials are floating a proposal -- to get the kinks out. Watch how a mail-in vote could affect the race »

The cost for the proposed elections would be between $10 million and $12 million, according to the state party memo.

The DNC stripped Florida of its delegates when the state moved its primary to January 29, ahead of the DNC-approved time frame. The DNC also stripped Michigan of its delegates; voters there cast ballots January 15.

Florida's Democrats knew when they cast ballots in January that their votes would not count because the primary date violated party rules. Neither candidate campaigned there, though Clinton held a few permitted fundraisers.

Clinton handily won Florida, winning not only most of the counties but also every county in the lower three-quarters of the state. She took 50 percent of the vote to Obama's 33 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who has since dropped out of the race, snared 14 percent of the vote.

As the race for the Democratic presidential nomination nears its finish -- 42 states have already voted -- Obama leads Clinton in the delegate count, 1,611 to 1,480, according to CNN estimates. Clinton has the slight edge among superdelegates, 237 to 207.

If Florida were permitted to vote again, its 210 delegates could prove integral in determining the party's choice to challenge the presumed GOP candidate, Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

A Democratic candidate needs 2,025 to secure the party nomination.

In Washington on Wednesday, Clinton said the results in Florida and Michigan were fair and should be counted. However, she would be open to new elections if the DNC won't honor the January results.

"There are two options: Honor the results or hold new primary elections," she said. "If you're a voter from Florida or Michigan, you know that we should count your votes."

Obama said Thursday that the notion of counting the January results "just defies logic" because he didn't campaign in either state and his name wasn't on the ballot in Michigan.

"I think you could ask my 6-year-old whether that was fair and she would probably be able to say, 'No, that isn't,' " he said.

As for the Florida proposal, Obama reiterated his concerns -- chiefly about security -- regarding a mail-in vote, but said his campaign is "not going to make the final decision on it and I'll abide by whatever rules the DNC lays out."

Dean said the DNC would work to find an option amenable to both candidates, "something that puts the vote back in the hands of the people of Florida and Michigan, but that is not easy to do."

Florida's congressional Democrats tried Tuesday to hammer out a way to count the state's voters in the nominating process. Mail-in and do-overs were proposed, but lawmakers failed to reach a consensus.

Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, has been vocal in his support of conducting a revote "principally by mail," but Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Florida, has said her House delegation "is opposed to a mail-in campaign or any redo of any kind."

According to a draft timeline included in the Wednesday memo, fundraising and public comment on the proposal would begin immediately and last through April 12.

The state's executive committee would discuss the proposal before sending it to the DNC for approval April 14. Mail-in vote packets would be sent to voters in mid-May, two weeks before the June 3 primary.


Those casting ballots in person would have to visit one of the 50 election offices set up across the state, rather than the thousands of polling stations that typically handle presidential elections in Florida.

The offices would be set up "to ensure disadvantaged communities have the ability to vote," the party memo said.
 

harSon

Banned
Tamanon said:
Obama would accept that in a heartbeat I'm thinking. He's said constantly that he'll go with what the DNC decides, and if they endorse it, it only cuts her pledged delegate deficit down to ~145. Plus it handily eliminates 2 of her talking points and chances to greatly catch up.

Is the popular count included?
 

syllogism

Member
From NBC's Chuck Todd
While the idea of Florica re-vote seems to be fading, there is a lot of momentum among Michigan Democrats for a June 3 re-vote, according to informed sources in the state. There are a couple of hurdles, including who would pay for the primary (100% Clinton donors or 50-50 split between Clinton and Obama donors; the preference of state Democrats). The state would pass a law that would appropriate the money to run this special primary election; not a mail-in, but a full bore in-person 100% open primary. The state, in turn, would be reimbursed by the Democratic Party or potentially other entities or even seeing if it's possible for donors to contribute to the state directly. Everyone seems to be on board in the state Democratic world of Michigan, including the governor, the Dingells, Carl Levin, the Kilpatricks and the U.A.W. For those that follow Michigan Democratic politics closely, you'll know getting all those folks in agreement isn't easy.

Also, there appears to be very little GOP resistance in the state legis. (or even the McCain campaign) from allowing this to happen. So, barring some major objection by the Obama folks (who are being briefed on this plan later today), the possibility of a Michigan re-vote on June 3 is very high. The only thing that could stop this primary logistically is if the state party is told, legally, they can't raise the large soft money contributions they would need to raise in order to come up with the $10-12 million.

All of this needs to be agreed to (including by the state legislature) in the next 10-14 days.

Ok, Florida, is the ball now in your court?
.
 

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Rur0ni said:
To quote Slurpy from the last thread:

He's been getting them at a high rate. The count varies. It's less than 40 super lead right now. I'd imagine some were hoping for an Obama Texas win (that night), to start to shut this thing down.

Edit:

Feel free to give me accurate data. ;)
156s66f.png
 

syllogism

Member
GhaleonEB said:
That would be disastrous for Obama, but if they propose it he'd be in a poor position to oppose it.
But people who already voted in the republican primary would not be able to vote again, so how exactly would this be disastrous
 

Tamanon

Banned
syllogism said:
But people who already voted in the republican primary would not be able to vote again

I don't know if that's true.

Because a good amount of Dems crossed over because the Republican vote counted.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom