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[Deleted member 80556]

It's sad that not even CBOAT knows anything about Half-life 3 and The Last Guardian's status.

Verendus and Mortimer confirmed TLG is still coming.

BUT WHAT ABOUT HL3! (The last leak notwithstanding)

 

[Forceatowulf]

CBOAT is the god damn truth...

I hope he his never revealed. I want my kids who start posting on GAF decades from now to know how real this motherfucker is.

 

[iceatcs]

Damn, déjà vu timing. Like Pre-E3.

 

[GeoramA]

Random gaffer here giving kudos to CBoaT. Can't wait for next week's truthfact!

 

[jaypah]

I kind of wish we had a CBOAT for every platform. Seems his info is mostly MS related though he did know about Remember Me being a Sony exclusive before they backed out or whatever.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

They're launching in all the biggest markets. The 8 that were delayed would account for maybe 5 or 10% of the total launch allocation. It's obviously not production related.

If its only 5 to 10% why pull them to begin with? Seems like there are some pretty big problems if they have to cancel the release in 8 countries over a measly 5 to 10% to redistribute.

 

[benny_a]

Keep banging that drum. Even though no-one's dancing.

SenjutsuSage has to do this. He has to double-down and call CBOAT into question.

Just read all the posts in this thread. He said there are no yield issues. I can't give the exact quote but paraphrased it's that he will take a ban if his high-level source turns out to be wrong.

I already think the delay means CBOAT was redeemed, because the localization stuff is the most transparent shit ever, because Benelux and Scandinavian countries never had the expectation for native language support.

Edit: Looked back in the posts from this thread (ambiguous statements) but in the original thread about the sluggish OS demo it was about downclocks.
I am mistaken. SenjutsuSage only said he take a ban if the downclock turns out to be right. I didn't check what he said about yields. I was misremembering.

 

[phosphor112]

SenjutsuSage has to do this. He has to double-down and call CBOAT into question.

Just read all the posts in this thread. He said there are no yield issues. I can't give the exact quote but paraphrased it's that he will take a ban if his high-level source turns out to be wrong.

I already think the delay means CBOAT was redeemed, because the localization stuff is the most transparent shit ever, because Benelux and Scandinavian countries never had the expectation for native language support.

Dude is devout to his consoles. Gotta give him some credit... I guess.

 

[TheRealTalker]

We do have lot of sony insiders/employees in here. But yeah we need real Sony's stealth leaker.

We had some until they where mostly fired and lay-offed... the Sony PR team

Spoiler

they had to do something since marketing their games weren't it

but seriously how many times did Sony's stuff leak before pressers... no wonder they clamped down on them

 

[eddfromtheriver]

What bothers me is more the glee and enthusiasm upcoming bad news is being treated.

You can definitely see how excited some people are to see the Xbox do badly.

*hides tail, lowers ears*

 

[Donthizz#]

We do have lot of sony insiders/employees in here. But yeah we need real Sony's stealth leaker.

I believe DemonNite works for sony, but he doesn't say much.

 

[benny_a]

Dude is devout to his consoles. Gotta give him some credit... I guess.

To be fair, there are posters here that exaggerative everything from one side and downplay things from the other side and vice versa for the other camp. They need each other to cancel the BS out.

I've come to known SenjutsuSage as someone that spins things, without inventing claims.
Everyone has biases though, so you can't really blame the people until they go over the top.

I believe DemonNite works for sony, but he doesn't say much.

famousmortimer is good for that, but he is restraining himself now because his real name is associated with his nickname and his posts are being watched by blogs that want to get scoops.

 

[RoboPlato]

I seriously doubt dead rising 3 is exclusive to Xbox one. It has to be timed exclusive.

According to CBOAT it will be. It's being almost exclusively funded by MS and not Capcom.

 

[GhaleonEB]

If anything, today's reconfirmation of the November launch indicates they're confident on production yields. The APU should be going to full commercial production very soon to make the November launch date.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. But say they "only" cut 10-15% of their total launch volumes. That is more than sufficient to corroborate CBOAT's eSRAM statement. A 10-15% hit to wafer loss or DPW is a pretty major shortfall.

 

[eastmen]

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. But say they "only" cut 10-15% of their total launch volumes. That is more than sufficient to corroborate CBOAT's eSRAM statement. A 10-15% hit to wafer loss or DPW is a pretty major shortfall.

that's with the assumption that they are launching in less countries due to yield problems and not to increase consoles in key countries they do better in.

Remember cboat didn't ever talk about the gpu clock speed increase. If ms was having such terrible yield problems why would they increase clock speeds ? If anything speeds would decrease.

 

[Krakn3Dfx]

I seriously doubt dead rising 3 is exclusive to Xbox one. It has to be timed exclusive.

I think at best we could see a PC release 12 to 18 months after the Xbox launch. At that point it would be done making money on the console and would still basically be on a Microsoft platform.

With Microsoft funding development, any chance of a PS4 version has probably sailed. Would love to be proven wrong at some point though.

 

[Krakn3Dfx]

that's with the assumption that they are launching in less countries due to yield problems and not to increase consoles in key countries they do better in.

Remember cboat didn't ever talk about the gpu clock speed increase. If ms was having such terrible yield problems why would they increase clock speeds ? If anything speeds would decrease.

You understand that the rumored yield issues were with the ESRAM cache and not with the GPU, which is what they upclocked, right?

Oh wait, apparently not.

 

[benny_a]

If ms was having such terrible yield problems why would they increase clock speeds ? If anything speeds would decrease.

That's only with the assumption that the yield issues are due to heating.

There are posts in this thread that only take what CBOAT said and try to reconcile with the leaked specs and ignore the downclock side-rumor. IIRC the argument was that the yield could be lower because of electrical leakage (lots of transistors closely packed) which renders more unusable. A downclock wouldn't help with those.

 

[Rhindle]

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. But say they "only" cut 10-15% of their total launch volumes. That is more than sufficient to corroborate CBOAT's eSRAM statement. A 10-15% hit to wafer loss or DPW is a pretty major shortfall.

Not being sarcastic at all. A 10% variation would be well within the normal range of error for a new chip tape out.

I'm not saying there are no yield issues. I have no idea, there may well be. However, if yields are coming in lower than expected, it does not appear to be a major problem. If it was looking like there was going to be a serious impact on production, the logical response would be to push back the launch date, not drop a couple of minor markets from the list.

 

[ElTorro]

Remember cboat didn't ever talk about the gpu clock speed increase. If ms was having such terrible yield problems why would they increase clock speeds ? If anything speeds would decrease.

I have no expertise in semiconductor manufacturing but I am not sure that there is a strict correlation between yields and clock tolerance.

Nevertheless, yield problems and upclock are not necessarily contradictory since the maximum stable clock speed is not the only parameter that determines the final clock speed. They stressed that noise reduction is one of their key goals. It could well be that the maximum stable clock speed has been reduced from, say, 900mhz to 853mhz, but 800mhz was their original conservative base line all along. That would also harmonize the "downclock" rumors with the actual evidence.

 

[nib95]

Remember cboat didn't ever talk about the gpu clock speed increase. If ms was having such terrible yield problems why would they increase clock speeds ? If anything speeds would decrease.

Does "yield problems" necessarily mean that these parts are overheating or whatever, or simply that they can't make enough of them to the rough desired spec?

 

[eastmen]

You understand that the rumored yield issues were with the ESRAM cache and not with the GPU, which is what they upclocked, right?

Oh wait, apparently not.

Both were upclocked , the clocks are tied together.

That's only with the assumption that the yield issues are due to heating.

There are posts in this thread that only take what CBOAT said and try to reconcile with the leaked specs and ignore the downclock side-rumor. IIRC the argument was that the yield could be lower because of electrical leakage (lots of transistors closely packed) which renders more unusable. A downclock wouldn't help with those.

Yes a downclock would lower power requirements thus reducing the amount of electrical leakage.

 

[GhaleonEB]

that's with the assumption that they are launching in less countries due to yield problems and not to increase consoles in key countries they do better in.

A possible scenario, but one I don't think is plausible given the timeline here.

June 10 - Microsoft announces the release of Xbox One in 21 countries
August 14 - Microsoft delays the release of Xbox One in 8 of those 21 countries

I think it's very unlikely that they had strategic shift of that size, in public, this close to launch, independent of manufacturing or schedule realities. I think the single most likely development is lower than expected yields on some key components. Because 1) that's a likely event in high-tech when ramping a new product, 2) it's happened to MS before with the 360, and 3) CBOAT, who has a stellar (if not perfect) track record has indicated yield problems were behind it. That is sufficient for me to conclude what is more likely.

Remember cboat didn't ever talk about the gpu clock speed increase. If ms was having such terrible yield problems why would they increase clock speeds ? If anything speeds would decrease.[/B]

It's not at all implausible that they'd have a higher than expected number of die with a clock speed X better than they expected, but also with a total number of die lower than expected. For instance, if the manufacturing problem is not systemic, but the result of one or more excursions/tooling issues on batches of wafers, rather than chronically poor yields. (Which is also possible.)

We obviously won't know for sure, but given what we do know, I think component issues are far more likely than a strategic shift, independent of supply issues, in a two month span.

Not being sarcastic at all. A 10% variation would be well within the normal range of error for a new chip tape out.

I'm not saying there are no yield issues. I have no idea, there may well be. However, if yields are coming in lower than expected, it does not appear to be a major problem. If it was looking like there was going to be a serious impact on production, the logical response would be to push back the launch date, not drop a couple of minor markets from the list.

10% lower yields is a pretty big hit. And to the extent that it's common to come in with low yields in a new product, it's also common practice to do your product planning around such contingency. And there was no way MS would delay the launch in total, pending truly catastrophic supply issues. Worst case scenario they would launch in NA only with the product they had. Concentrating the available supply into your most important markets is a logical response.

 

[dragonbane]

While CBOAT is crazily accurate that you must heed his words. He does have misses, and we should list them as well just to give an accurate representation of his actual accuracy. He does occasionally miss, probably due to changes later or feeding of false information to try and find the source of the leak.

I do believe he missed Prince of Persia at E3.

He has some misses, however he clarified that he mistook Halo for PoP.

Until you realize that the op linked to says absolutely nothing about Dead Rising 3 being exclusive to the Xbox One. It simply talks about exclusive DLC for some other Capcom game.?

Everything in that section talks about MS. He also said before that the plans changed in the background and DR3 was snatched up by a console company. Since he mentioned it for the MS conference he pretty much said which company.

I seriously doubt dead rising 3 is exclusive to Xbox one. It has to be timed exclusive.

According to CBOAT it is not.

Not being sarcastic at all. A 10% variation would be well within the normal range of error for a new chip tape out.


I'm not saying there are no yield issues. I have no idea, there may well be. However, if yields are coming in lower than expected, it does not appear to be a major problem. If it was looking like there was going to be a serious impact on production, the logical response would be to push back the launch date, not drop a couple of minor markets from the list.

Something can't be right, since we know that store allotments are way lower than PS4. And this is in their primary countries. Looks like they might not even be able to meet demand there. Either they have production issues or Sony prepared extraordinary well.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I'm not saying there are no yield issues. I have no idea, there may well be. However, if yields are coming in lower than expected, it does not appear to be a major problem. If it was looking like there was going to be a serious impact on production, the logical response would be to push back the launch date, not drop a couple of minor markets from the list.

But isn't the original list of countries from only two months ago? Missing targets by 10% overall might not be gigantic (though I'm doubtful on even that), but missing targets by 10% more than what you thought you'd get just 60 days ago sounds pretty darn bad.

 

[ZackieChan]

If he works at Microsoft then he clearly has to be careful of false leaks being given by "buddy nº1" especially considering Microsoft is paranoid with leaks (the custom made zebra pattern on Durango).

Ubisoft did it a couple of years ago when everything was leaked by their employees. They started leaking rumor 1 to employee 1, rumor 2 to employee 2 and then waited to see which rumor got out to the games press.

edited to quote

 

[Pseudo judo]

I seriously doubt dead rising 3 is exclusive to Xbox one. It has to be timed exclusive.

Dead Rising 3 appearing on PS4 has about the same chance as Bayonetta 2 appearing on any other console besides WiiU. Come to think of it Bayonetta 2 has a better chance but that's still pretty much no chance at all.

 

[eastmen]

A possible scenario, but one I don't think is plausible given the timeline here.

June 10 - Microsoft announces the release of Xbox One in 21 countries
August 14 - Microsoft delays the release of Xbox One in 8 of those 21 countries

I think it's very unlikely that they had strategic shift of that size, in public, this close to launch, independent of manufacturing or schedule realities. I think the single most likely development is lower than expected yields on some key components. Because 1) that's a likely event in high-tech when ramping a new product, 2) it's happened to MS before with the 360, and 3) CBOAT, who has a stellar (if not perfect) track record has indicated yield problems were behind it. That is sufficient for me to conclude what is more likely.

MS also increased preorder slots in the united states (don't follow any of the other countries much) on day one editions. Where did those units suddenly come from ?

You also have to factor in all the software changes they are going through right now. They got rid of drm (big mistake but whatever seems popular on this forum) which would require a change of security and dispite what some believe isn't a quick flip of a switch. They also had to change the OS to work without the use of Kinect. They would need to pull people off other jobs which could have impacted localization of Kinect voice and the os .

Die will come out with a range of clock speeds, even from a single wafer. It's not at all implausible that they'd have a higher than expected number of die with a clock speed X better than they expected, but also with a total number of die lower than expected. For instance, if the manufacturing problem is not systemic, but the result of one or more excursions/tooling issues on batches of wafers, rather than chronically poor yields. (Which is also possible.)

That is one possibility but I don't believe that is whats going on.

We obviously won't know for sure, but given what we do know, I think component issues are far more likely than a strategic shift, independent of supply issues, in a two month span.

MS has changed a lot of things in 2 months . I'm sure the news of sony out preordering ms 2:1 or more in some areas like the united states worried them and they wanted more units for preorders in those areas.


I also ask why cboat never spoke of the clock increase for the gpu. Has cboat actually ever posted a positive xbox one rumor ?

Cboat could be right , it could be yields. It may not be. At the same time I remember this being a truth rumor thread and one part of it was downclocks. That doesn't seem to have happened. Was that cboat saying that ? Cause if so the exact opposite happened.

 

[ElTorro]

Has cboat actually ever posted a positive xbox one rumor ?

He said that Black Tusk's game looks awesome. Nevertheless, even if he did only leak negative information, that does not discredit their credibility.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I also ask why cboat never spoke of the clock increase for the gpu. Has cboat actually ever posted a positive xbox one rumor ?

Cboat could be right , it could be yields. It may not be. At the same time I remember this being a truth rumor thread and one part of it was downclocks. That doesn't seem to have happened. Was that cboat saying that ? Cause if so the exact opposite happened.

I don't recall CBOAT commenting on that particular development (though I may have missed it), but he doesn't comment on a lot of developments. And yes, he has posted some positive MS news, such as game reveals. As noted above, that doesn't really have bearing on his accuracy.

I think reasonable people can see the information we have and come to different conclusions; that is to say I think we'll go point by point back and forth without convincing one another of anything, but I appreciation your elaboration. I outlined why I think things are playing out the way they are. Often it's the simplest reasons: less product than expected results in fewer markets launched in concurrently. There could be other reasons, of course, that's just what I think is most likely given how this has played out.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

He said that Black Tusk's game looks awesome. Nevertheless, even if he did only leak negative information, that does not discredit their credibility.

That's the only thing I don't like, just about all of his leaks were negative info about MS. It makes them come off biased, but they've all ended up true so how can you can call it biased/slanted if he's just reporting the truth. Still, it would be nice if it wasn't so one-sided or better yet if we had a Sonyboat.


E: To answer that question (how can you call it biased if he's reporting the truth?)... Maybe if he reported more positive news along with the negative, but that begs to ask the question is there even any? lol

 

[eastmen]

I don't recall CBOAT commenting on that particular development (though I may have missed it), but he doesn't comment on a lot of developments. And yes, he has posted some positive MS news, such as game reveals. As noted above, that doesn't really have bearing on his accuracy.

I think reasonable people can see the information we have and come to different conclusions; that is to say I think we'll go point by point back and forth without convincing one another of anything, but I appreciation your elaboration. I outlined why I think things are playing out the way they are. Often it's the simplest reasons: less product than expected results in fewer markets launched in concurrently. There could be other reasons, of course, that's just what I think is most likely given how this has played out.

yes and you have good thoughts on it. It can certainly be poor yields. But at the same time it can be a number of different issues.

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

 

[The Flash]

I'll be glad when these consoles finally come out. We'll be able to stop fussing over the small details and the "what ifs" and focus on the most important issue. Playing games and having fun.

 

[nib95]

There is simply no reason to doubt Cboat on this. We can do mental gymnastics or speculate to arrive at other assumed possibilities to what the reasons for this could be, or we can use logic, coupled with Cboat's near flawless track record and just instead assume that he was once again right on the money.

I should also add that he was not the only one who came out with this, Proelite (and one other I forget) also mentioned that he too had heard about the yield issues. If you guys remember, Proelite is/was a Microsoft employee so that's more due to the fire.

 

[ElTorro]

That's the only thing I don't like, just about all of his leaks were negative info about MS. It makes them come off biased, but they've all ended up true so how can you can call it biased/slanted if he's just reporting the truth. Still, it would be nice if it wasn't so one-sided or better yet if we had a Sonyboat.

Microsoft, or any other company, doesn't need help from leakers to publish positive information. There is a natural inherent tendency for leakers to publish negative information.

 

[Wickerbasket]

yes and you have good thoughts on it. It can certainly be poor yields. But at the same time it can be a number of different issues.

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

It would say that they probably weren't as great as they'd hoped.

The only reason we don't seem to be getting much info from Sony is that they seem to have tighter control over leaks.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

I'll be glad when these consoles finally come out. We'll be able to stop fussing over the small details and the "what ifs" and focus on the most important issue. Playing games and having fun.

Just have to say you were great in your new new animated movie Justice League: The Flashpoint Paradox. Fantastic work!

Microsoft, or any other company, doesn't need help from leakers to publish positive information. There is a natural inherent tendency for leakers to publish negative information.

That's a good point, didn't think of that.

 

[jaypah]

Microsoft, or any other company, doesn't need help from leakers to publish positive information. There is a natural inherent tendency for leakers to publish negative information.

Yup, it is what it is. He's become a villain for one side, a hero for the other side and just a good source of information for everyone else.

 

[GhaleonEB]

yes and you have good thoughts on it. It can certainly be poor yields. But at the same time it can be a number of different issues.

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

Not sure on that one; we haven't heard anything about yield issues with Sony's platform. It could be they run a tighter ship, or that they don't have as many issues. From what we saw from US preorder numbers, at least relative to the XBO, things seem to point to more supply for the PS4. Dunno. I don't have a pet theory here, just basing what I think is happening off of what we've heard.

November (or October, if the PS4 rumor is true) NPD can't come soon enough.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

yes and you have good thoughts on it. It can certainly be poor yields. But at the same time it can be a number of different issues.

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

It would also mean that Sony's yields are less than expected? What is the point of asking that hypothetical to vet your stance? It doesn't matter what console does it. Shrinking your launch scope is a sign of shortcoming in production. Do you honestly believe if they had a surplus of units available, that they wouldn't get their foot in the door of developing markets that could be coming bigger players, to their competitors?

 

[The Flash]

Just have to say you were great in your new new animated movie Justice League: The Flashpoint Paradox. Fantastic work!

Thank you mild mannered citizen. Don't forget to check me out this Fall on the all new season of Arrow. Only on the CW!

 

[Lumyst]

I'll be glad when these consoles finally come out. We'll be able to stop fussing over the small details and the "what ifs" and focus on the most important issue. Playing games and having fun.

I'm actually hoping the Xbox One doesn't have hardware issues like my Xbox and Xbox 360 both did, nothing to pull the plug on the fun like a faulty disc drive or a system that overheats and goes dead (I did have some damn fun times with Knights of the Old Republic and Oblivion, even if those games killed my Xboxes lol)

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Looks like all the yield rumors that were circulated are true. I wonder what this means for the final build quality were ending up with.

 

[Perkel]

Why? They are not publicly revealing how much the system costs to manufacture, other than (for whatever reason) that post about $100 million to create the Xbox One's controller. They set forecasts and miss them (just like Nintendo). Just because yields are bad doesn't mean they can't meet demand. It just means they are taking greater losses (more bad chips) and having to make more chips to meet demand.

Launching in only 13 countries this year is very solid proof of what CBOAT said. They even lowered that because earlier it was with countries like Russia or Switzerland and they moved launch there for 2014.

 

[useyourfist]

Wasnt it claimed Sony only closed preorders as they want to ensure they have sufficient stock to make sure they can keep shelves filled for impulse buys, and to obviously make sure it wasn't just Xbones on shelves.

 

[LiquidSolid]

yes and you have good thoughts on it. It can certainly be poor yields. But at the same time it can be a number of different issues.

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

Clutching at straws much?

 

[Myshkin]

i wonder how many employees with cboats level of access to knowledge who were presentin 2004 are still there 9 yrs later...

im really buying that cboat is more than one person, or at least not the original cboat.

I definitely imagine CBOAT as a sort of Dread Pirate Roberts figure.

CBOAT is literally the Dread Pirate Roberts of the Video Game Industry.

That's what I just said!

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

yes and you have good thoughts on it. It can certainly be poor yields. But at the same time it can be a number of different issues.

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

Just like Sonys silence meant:-

They had the same DRM
Their Apps are behind a paywall
They have the same amount of ram reserved for the OS
They are going to cost the same
They are going to have a mandatory camera


Stop it. Its embarrassing. At this point what microsoft is doing is no indication of what sony is doing, for better or worse.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

Just like Sonys silence meant:-

They had the same DRM
Their Apps are behind a paywall
They have the same amount of ram reserved for the OS
They are going to cost the same
They are going to have a mandatory camera


Stop it. Its embarrassing. At this point what microsoft is doing is no indication of what sony is doing, for better or worse.

I totally agree. It's as if those who are disillusioned with the X1 mess are wishing the same mess on PS4 owners. It's like pissing on your neighbours flowers because you can't even grow a weed. SAD.

 

[FeiRR]

Sony has yet to announce anything yet on its launch. What if it too is limited to roughly the same or smaller list of launch countries ? What would that say about sony's yields .

Sony is officially taking preorders (with money deposits, promoting banners, Facebook promo action, etc.) in Poland. I'm sure the same happens in many tier 3-or-whatever countries. The preorder says explicitly 2013.